TSLA corporate outlook

[epirali]

And I was not questioning the quality of the model S, rather its look and feel. In my opinion it does not live up to a car at that price.

Tesla's stance, as I understand it, is that Model S is offering a new definition of "luxury" at that price point. I tend to agree, though fully understand that there are plenty of people who want the old definition.

Hey I have no problem with new definition of luxury. I have other cars that fit that bill completely. I am much more in the camp of minimal high quality (Audi) rather than bling (BMW/MBZ). But the quality of the finishes in the Model S are much more American ford than Audi. And the seats are mediocre at best. And I don't think a giant display panel in the middle is "modern," I am a technology person myself. It is not redefinition to hide common functions in sub pages of a display with giant pointless graphics instead of really rethinking luxury or user interface.

If you want redefinition of luxury take a look at the i8 with HUD, very well thought out all graphic cockpit display and minimal interior. I'm sorry but the fonts and graphics on the tesla driver panel look dated (to me).

 

[Zythryn]

...
In this sense, Tesla has an entirely conventional vehicle pricing strategy, using a low base price to get buyers through the door (even if virtual) then upselling most of them to a higher margin (or in TSLA's case, lower loss) final purchase.

If the average sales price of A TESLA S were ~$80,000 last quarter, rather than something well over $100k (anyone found a solid number?) TSLA's loss per car sold would of course have been far higher than the ~$5,000 reported....

...The per car loss number is arrived at by adding up all R&D as well as capital investments and dividing that into the number of cars sold...

That statement is correct.

For all the genius of Mr. Musk, he has still not quite figured out how to manufacture and sell BEVs without expenditures for "R&D as well as capital investments"...

Maybe after he licks that minor problem, TSLA will be profitable...

It's not a problem, it is a choice.
Tesla could be making lots of money on just the Model S right now if they weren't building a worldwide charging network of DC chargers and destination chargers, R&D on future vehicles, or a factory to produce as much battery capacity as the rest of the world combined in 2013.

Their future wouldn't be as bright and they would not grow as fast, but they could be profitable today.

Like many young companies, they decide to expand rather than remain a small.

 

[cwerdna]

And from http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me

Elon musk, 2006 ...the second model will be a sporty four door family car at roughly half the $89k price point of the Tesla Roadster and the third model will be even more affordable...

Since the second Tesla (model S) wound up costing, on average, considerably more than twice as much as Musk claimed it would, and the third Tesla (model X) will probably cost, on average, considerably more than the S, it is obvious the original plan, as Musk stated it, has been superseded...

They also missed the $89K price point of the Roadster. It ended up being $109K, IIRC. I do remember hearing of a price increase in cars that hadn't been delivered in Revenge of the Electric Car and just dug up some of these:
http://www.saxton.org/tom_saxton/2009/01/price-increase-explanation.html
http://www.saxton.org/tom_saxton/2009/01/tesla-price-increase.html
http://www.wired.com/2009/01/tesla-raises-pr/

As I've said in other posts, I doubt they'll make their actual Model 3 price targets and do some Elon math (ala http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/2013-model-s-price-increase) and then pull what they did w/the 40 kWh claiming nobody wants it... blah blah and discontinue the cheapest model, possibly before it even ships, like they did w/that 40 kWh S.

Then... you have a "just under $50K" car (after tax credits), the 40 kWh model, turning into a more expensive car. At one point, the starting price tag was ~$75K before tax credit.

 

[Zythryn]

They didn't claim nobody wanted it (the 40kWh model).
They claimed so few people wanted it, that it made no sense to continue with it.

Tesla targeted a $50k price point after rebates, and for those very few that ordered it, a $50k model was sold initially.

As for speculation about the model 3, I think they will hit their target price point in 2013/2014 dollars (whenever they announced it). However, I certainly could be wrong. Time will tell.

 

[cwerdna]

They didn't claim nobody wanted it (the 40kWh model).
They claimed so few people wanted it, that it made no sense to continue with it.

Tesla targeted a $50k price point after rebates, and for those very few that ordered it, a $50k model was sold initially.

Sorry, to them "nobody" was supposedly 4% (https://web.archive.org/web/20130401060255/http://www.teslamotors.com/about/press/releases/tesla-model-s-sales-exceed-target). They killed it before it was really given a chance.

Other than the Roadster, pretty much ALL or all EVs and PHEVs other than the Model S have 41.8 kWh (Rav4 EV) or less battery packs. The world's best selling EV, the Leaf has a 24 kWh pack.

I wouldn't be surprised if that ordering was allowed to continue that they would actually get a decent # of sales beyond the software limited to 40 kWh units.

 

[lorenfb]

Based on the August report from InsideEVs, it appears that Tesla may have to revise their guidance
revision of 50K-55K units for 2015, i.e. the original guidance at the beginning of 2015 was 55K units.
The YTD U.S. sales estimate from InsideEVs is 14.5K which amounts to about 29K worldwide.
Assuming the same run rate, the 2015 number (43.5K) will fall way short of the low end of the
guidance of 50K. But not unlike other BEV OEMs, their sales are flattening out.

Yes, Tesla tends to usually out do the other quarters in the fourth quarter, but Tesla needs to ship
about 72% of what they shipped in the first eight months in the last four months, i.e. a very very
difficult task, to achieve the low end of the revised guidance. Maybe they have some (10K) ready
to ship Model X units being stored (hidden) at Giga as their "savior", right? Their present guidance
for 9/30 is to ship a (or more) Model X.

 

[edatoakrun]

Hey, nothing to worry about, their average TSLA target price is still ~$285...

It always takes a while after the fact, for vultures to pick up the stench of death.

Would have been nice if some of the current "Doubters" had noticed TSLA was not showing much life, ~three months ago, when the stock price topped out.

IMO, the near term TSLA price outlook is highly dependent on how many Xs actually get delivered by the end of the year, and I'm not going to try to guess what that number will be.

Tesla Runs Into Some Doubters

Several analysts signal concerns about electric-car company’s stock

Wall Street’s enthusiasm for Tesla Motors Inc. is waning.

Shares of the electric-car company stumbled nearly 11% this week to $220.69, booking their worst weekly percentage drop in more than a year, after several Wall Street analysts signaled concerns about the stock.

Three analysts cut their price target for Tesla shares and a fourth struck a cautious note as he started coverage of the stock. Meanwhile, famed short seller Jim Chanos said the company, whose vehicles start out at $75,000, is still far from being a mass-market manufacturer...

To be sure, plenty of analysts believe Tesla shares have room to rise. The average price target of Tesla analysts tracked by FactSet is $284.50, 29% above Friday’s close...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-runs-into-some-doubters-1444436372

An interesting aside on how bubbly the current market for stock in high-priced auto manufacturers is, even one sticking with old-fashioned ICE luxury autos can sell stock at ridiculous (IMO) prices.

In fact, Ferrari's IPO is priced at over $1,000,000.00 in market cap per vehicle sold this year, more than twice TSLA's valuation per vehicle sold!

Ferrari to be valued at up to $9.82 billion in stock offering


MILAN (Bloomberg) -- Ferrari will be valued at as much as $9.82 billion in an initial public offering when owner Fiat Chrysler Automobiles sells a 9 percent stake in the Italian supercar manufacturer...

Marchionne has said Ferrari should be treated more like a luxury-goods maker than an auto manufacturer.

The stock sale is set to be oversubscribed ...

The Maranello, Italy-based manufacturer, which seeks to limit the number of vehicles it makes to slightly less than demand to maintain exclusivity, said in a filing last month that it plans to raise production to 9,000 vehicles by 2019.

Ferrari will stick to producing high-end sports cars, and won’t follow rivals into models such as SUVs or electric autos, as powerful vehicles with traditional growling engines are part of what customers pay for, CEO Amedeo Felisa said in September...

http://www.autonews.com/article/20151009/OEM/151009795/ferrari-to-be-valued-at-up-to-9-82-billion-in-stock-offering

 

[edatoakrun]

There are many articles on today's TSLA earnings and conference call.

Some seem overly focused (IMO) on what the lower guidance for this year's vehicle (and powerwall?) deliveries will be.

More important, IMO, is that the large proportion of ~$75k S's in comparison to ~$130k X's delivered this quarter and into 2016 is going to adversely effects the quarterly loss figure, and push TSLA's vision of profits to support it's ludicrous valuation out further, perhaps approaching never.

Tesla Motors Earnings: What to Watch

Focus will be on Model X deliveries, cash flow

...MODEL X: Tesla handed over six Model X sport-utilities on Sept. 29 and very few have been delivered to customers since then. Expect Tesla to give an update on how many vehicles will go to customers in the fourth quarter and for investors to watch that as a litmus test for how much the company has learned about launching new models. Chief Executive Elon Musk has repeatedly talked about how difficult the vehicle is to build, and that may be a concern if the company struggles to ramp up volume. Getting the SUV into consumer’s hands is critical if the company hopes to meet its 2015 sales target.

CASH: Tesla raised $750 million in cash over the summer through a share sale, but it has been burning cash at an unsustainable clip due to the high costs of building factories and launching new products. Tesla had forecast it would have positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter, but difficulties launching the new SUV may have spoiled that. Look for Tesla to clarify its financial stability...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-motors-earnings-what-to-watch-1446225733

Tesla's Earnings Report Draws More Attention to Output Than Loss

...Tesla has delivered 33,157 cars through the first three quarters, according to a preliminary tally, which would mean it must deliver 16,843 vehicles in the final three months of the year to reach the low end of its guidance of 50,000 to 55,000 vehicles...

TESLA ENERGY: When Tesla unveiled its suite of energy-storage products for homes, businesses and utilities in April, initial deliveries of the Powerwall home battery were scheduled to begin in late summer. Tesla’s website now says that will happen “in late 2015.” ...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-03/tesla-s-earnings-report-draws-more-attention-to-output-than-loss

Tesla Motors Can’t Maintain ‘Ludicrous’ Speed

With skepticism growing, Tesla can still get away with losses. But it will also need to hit delivery targets to keep its ludicrous valuation.[/b]

Its sedan’s top acceleration mode isn’t the only thing “ludicrous” about Tesla Motors Inc.

Ask many observers, and the company’s full-year delivery target of between 50,000 and 55,000 vehicles is starting to look that way. Based on preliminary figures the company released about the third quarter—it unveils complete results Tuesday—it has delivered 33,157 so far in 2015. Tacking on an additional 16,843 to 21,843 seems a tall order given likely teething problems around making its new Model X sport-utility vehicle.

But deliveries for a car with what the company says is a long waiting list are a short-term issue. What matters is the company’s ability to eventually make money, and preferably lots of it...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-motors-cant-maintain-ludicrous-speed-1446491548

Anyone here playing the TSLA lottery?

...The most traded Tesla option on Monday was the call option expiring Friday that grants the right to buy shares at $240. That’s 12% above Monday’s close of $213.79.

“That’s a very bullish bet,” said Steve Sosnick, equity risk manager at Timber Hill, the market-making division of Interactive Brokers, referring to investors who bought the $240 calls. “People are buying lottery tickets,”...

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/11/03/options-traders-buying-lottery-tickets-on-tesla-ahead-of-earnings/

 

[edatoakrun]

Tesla delivers 17,400 vehicles in Q4, hitting target


Maker of electric cars delivers 50,580 cars for the year

Deliveries include 208 of the new Model X sport utility


Tesla Motors Inc. delivered 17,400 vehicles in the fourth quarter, hitting its target of at least 50,000 vehicles for the year.

The maker of electric cars and energy storage devices reached a total of 50,580 deliveries in 2015, Tesla said in a statement Sunday. The fourth-quarter results were the low end of its target of 17,000 to 19,000 vehicles...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-03/tesla-delivers-17-400-vehicles-in-fourth-quarter-hitting-target

Edit-more details reported below:

Tesla Motors Inc. squeaked into its forecast for car deliveries in the fourth quarter...

Tesla only delivered 208 Model X cars in the fourth quarter while producing 507 of the automobiles...

The preliminary fourth-quarter deliveries number would give Tesla an annual total of 50,580, though the final numbers released in quarterly reports tend to be slightly different...

Chief Executive Elon Musk first predicted delivery of 55,000 cars at the beginning of the year, but pulled that down to a range of 50,000-to-55,000 after the first half of the year and then 50,000-to-52,000 after the third quarter.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-barely-hits-q4-goal-amid-cautious-start-for-model-x-2016-01-03

 

[edatoakrun]

There are many articles on (11/3/15) TSLA earnings and conference call.

Some seem overly focused (IMO) on what the lower guidance for this year's vehicle (and powerwall?) deliveries will be.

More important, IMO, is that the large proportion of ~$75k S's in comparison to ~$130k X's delivered this quarter and into 2016 is going to adversely effects the quarterly loss figure, and push TSLA's vision of profits to support it's ludicrous valuation out further, perhaps approaching never...

Tesla hits lowest price in months as Model X sales disappoint

...“We estimate that the slower than expected ramp in Model X vehicle production will pressure gross margin,” analysts Ryan Brinkman and Samik Chatterjee wrote...

Tesla TSLA, -1.86% declined 3.1% to $196.38

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-hits-lowest-price-in-months-as-model-x-sales-disappoint-2016-01-25

TSLA continued to fall, below $190 today.

Video at link:

Tesla Shares Drop as Model X Sales Disappoint

Tesla's inability to roll out its new Model X quickly led J.P. Morgan to cut its estimates for the electric-car maker. Tesla's stock has dropped lower than its April 15 closing price of $196.38...

http://www.wsj.com/video/tesla-shares-drop-as-model-x-sales-disappoint/DEED9967-61EA-44ED-8A52-C06C6435F594.html

 

[edatoakrun]

The bonfire of the cash continues at TSLA, as quarterly financial results were released today, and the share price subsequently took a dead-cat-bounce from its two-year low:

Tesla Earnings: Why They Aren’t Built for Speed

...The electric-automobile upstart reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.75 billion and a loss per share of $2.44. While those figures were short of analysts’ expectations, the stock was nearly 12% higher in after-hours trading...

Tesla now has burned $2.9 billion in the past six quarters and has just $1.2 billion in cash and equivalents left on its balance sheet...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-earnings-why-they-arent-built-for-speed-1455148926

Tesla’s Fourth-Quarter Loss Nearly Triples

Full-year 2015 loss widens to $889 million from $294 million in 2014

...“I feel very good about things right now,” said Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk in a call after the earnings...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-fourth-quarter-loss-nearly-triples-1455140842

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
Indeed... the market is nutty. Sometimes when companies miss earnings estimates by a bit or fall short on revenue or didn't beat estimates by enough, they get pounded. Yet in this case, they missed BIG time on earnings and a bit on revenue, yet they were up almost 10% after hours. Per http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/02/10/tesla-posts-q4-earnings/80194030/#

In the fourth quarter, Tesla said it lost $114 million on an adjusted basis, or 87 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence said its consensus analyst estimate showed Tesla had been expected an adjusted earnings per share of 12 cents for the fourth quarter. Revenue came in at $1.75 billion, falling short of the estimates of $1.8 billion.

On an unadjusted basis, Tesla took an even bigger loss: $320 million, or $2.30 a share. The company said it had heavy ramp-up costs last year in order to make its new crossover.

So, a $320 million loss means that they've accumulated over $2 billion in net loss since they've been publicly reporting financials. I posted about their previous cumulative almost $1.8 billion in net loss at http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/55741-JB-Straubel-Model-3-will-be-mostly-NEW-technology/page12?p=1240674&viewfull=1#post1240674 and when it was only ~$1.381 billion at http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/49555-Statistical-poll-of-the-drive-unit-issue/page7?p=1081008&viewfull=1#post1081008.

 

[mwalsh]

"So the numbers are horrible, but...hey look over there, vacuum tubes that can send people to Mars!". Or in this instance, "...hey look over there, the Model 3 will be available to pre-order next month!"

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

"So the numbers are horrible, but...hey look over there, vacuum tubes that can send people to Mars!". Or in this instance, "...hey look over there, the Model 3 will be available to pre-order next month!"

sounds like a "cash grab" scam to me... down payment today for a car 2+ years out....

 

[finman100]

If it were easy, everyone would be doing it. changing the world that is.

I for one see Tesla as the future despite Wall Street.

Model 3 March 31st, 2016? book it. it's all good.

One just has to see the end game (no oil). makes sense to many people out there. And despite EVERYTHING currently running contrary to EV transport, Tesla is leading that change for the better. There will be naysayers. ALOT of people just want cheap gas and problem solved. Nope. not even close.

Love my Leaf, but there's a HUGE (Supercharger network) chance , my Leaf replacement will not be from Nissan. YMMV.

Go Elon!

 

[Rebel44]

Also, Tesla plans to be (non-GAAP) profitable by Q2 2016 and GAAP profitable by Q4 2016 with 2016 expected to be cash flow positive.

To me, it doesnt look like "doom and gloom" is justified - fact that massive production capacity expansion + building Gigafactory requires a lot of investment isnt any surprise....

 

[edatoakrun]

...I for one see Tesla as the future despite Wall Street...

Go Elon!

"Despite Wall Street"?

Where do you think the billions of dollars TSLA has burned came from?

I suppose, just as the real test of a pimp comes when the... product is past it's prime, the real test for a Wall Street analyst comes when a cult stock goes stale.

Some examples, here:

Tesla ‘cash is king’ strategy met with skepticism

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-cash-is-king-strategy-met-with-skepticism-2016-02-11

Tesla predicts rosy 2016, but can Elon Musk be believed?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-predicts-rosy-2016-but-can-elon-musk-be-believed-2016-02-10

For a more skeptical report on TSLA's prospects, from a source not promoting the Stock, read:

Tesla Will Get Trampled by the Mass Market

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-02-11/tesla-will-get-trampled-by-the-mass-market

 

[Nubo]

If it were easy, everyone would be doing it. changing the world that is.

I for one see Tesla as the future despite Wall Street.

Model 3 March 31st, 2016? book it. it's all good.

One just has to see the end game (no oil). makes sense to many people out there. And despite EVERYTHING currently running contrary to EV transport, Tesla is leading that change for the better. There will be naysayers. ALOT of people just want cheap gas and problem solved. Nope. not even close.

Love my Leaf, but there's a HUGE (Supercharger network) chance , my Leaf replacement will not be from Nissan. YMMV.

Go Elon!

I applaud Tesla for taking the risk, making no-compromise EVs, implementing a charging network, and provisioning for mass-production by investing in a battery plant.

That being said, I'm tired of the prepaid reservation model. It smacks of desperation. Just because they start taking your money on 3/31/16 doesn't necessarily mean any progress is being made towards actual meaningful production numbers of Model 3. Just build the cars, Tesla, then sell them. I'm not sure the mainstream is going to be comfortable waiting in line for years like the Model X crowd.

 

[finman100]

Everything in due time. Please proceed to the gasoline is awesome door if so inclined and if so pessimistic with life. Many are patient and appreciate the Tesla work that is done and is to be done. some just don't get it and may never get it. that's okay. I'm actually tired of the BS that ICE mfgs. continue to spew (pun intended) about sustainable EV transport. Many want to leave that behind and continue to back the true future out there. (Hint, it isn't combustion of any sort, think big picture.) others...well, good luck with that. And, yes, this is my opinion and means less than squat. YMMV.

I will apologize. I'm sorry i see things differently going forward. something tells me Elon knows what is what:

https://www.teslamotors.com/node/2528?no_cache=1455224670

 

[Nubo]

Everything in due time. Please proceed to the gasoline is awesome door if so inclined and if so pessimistic with life. Many are patient and appreciate the Tesla work that is done and is to be done. some just don't get it and may never get it. that's okay. I'm actually tired of the BS that ICE mfgs. continue to spew (pun intended) about sustainable EV transport. Many want to leave that behind and continue to back the true future out there. (Hint, it isn't combustion of any sort, think big picture.) others...well, good luck with that. And, yes, this is my opinion and means less than squat. YMMV.

I will apologize. I'm sorry i see things differently going forward. something tells me Elon knows what is what:

https://www.teslamotors.com/node/2528?no_cache=1455224670

Well if that's addressed to me, I'm pretty sure I "get it", but as I said I'm simply tired of reservations. If/when the car is actually being produced in meaningful numbers I'm sure I'll be taking a look and maybe even purchase one if I can get a date-certain delivery that is reasonable and dependable. Until then, I am more than happy to be "patient" I simply won't be handing Tesla any of my money while I practice my patience. I let them sit on $5000 of my money for 2 years waiting for Model X. Not again.