TSLA corporate outlook

[finman100]

Hey it's only a grand this time!

5 grand is above my threshold of pain. I understand that would be annoying to wait and then wait more. Don't get me wrong, I wish alot of things too, for Tesla. But I wish them more good karma than bad. Don't know ANYTHING about running a car company, let alone 3 VERY high-tech companies. Just a fan of what Elon is accomplishing slowly against ALL other existing ways to do business. Risk is high, but I see the reward as MUCH higher. IF just ONE other company competes and joins Tesla in the long-distance EV game, EVERYONE wins. end game, no oil.

I read all about the markets and greed and short-sellers and think, out of ALL of this, maybe, just maybe, we can get to a better personal transport system than explosions and farting and drilling and spilling. I think we can, pure and simple.

Hmm, maybe a few too many upper-case (yelling) words. Sorry, again.

Curt

 

[edatoakrun]

In addition to missing annual sales targets, and profit projections ,Tesla seems to have a habit of stretching the truth further, with each successive financial report.

In doing so obscuring the existential question of whether TSLA may need additional Capital as soon as this year to continue its ambitious expansion plans.

A Tesla Innovation Investors Can Do Without

In Tesla’s fourth quarter letter to shareholders released after the market closed Wednesday, the company highlighted a newly introduced metric, “core operational cash flow.” This was the lead item cited in the release...

That measure wouldn’t be found in a cash flow statement compiled under generally accepted accounting principles. In fact, this is combining figures from two separate sections of the cash flow statement....

The issue is important for investors because Tesla says it doesn’t require additional financing to meet its operational goals this year. With planned capital expenditures of $1.5 billion, more than current cash on hand, that could prove a challenge.

The issue also should be of interest to the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has rules about companies placing emphasis on non-GAAP measures ahead of GAAP ones. Those rules also require companies when presenting such non-GAAP figures to reconcile them to the GAAP figures. Tesla doesn’t appear to have done this in its shareholders letter announcing earnings...

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/02/11/a-tesla-innovation-investors-can-do-without/

More on the potentially immense financial hole being dug at Tesla, with additional commentary on Solar City and SpaceX:

Elon Musk's vision is not for the faint of heart

...Musk's electric vehicle startup, Tesla Motors Inc., on Wednesday posted its eleventh straight quarterly loss, when analysts had expected a profit. Tesla also said it planned $1.5 billion in capital spending this year but had just $1.2 billion in the bank...

Musk has promised to sell 500,000 electric cars annually by 2020, though the company sold one-tenth that number last year -- at a loss...

http://www.autonews.com/article/20160212/OEM06/160219942/elon-musks-vision-is-not-for-the-faint-of-heart

 

[edatoakrun]

Tesla tightens the noose on its customers:

Tesla quietly raises prices, removes transferability from service options

In a quiet update to its policies, Tesla has raised prices on its after-sales service options, and — more significantly — now prevents new Tesla buyers from transferring their extended warranty and prepaid service plans when reselling the car.

By far the biggest change, at least as far as the impact on Tesla buyers goes, is the ban on transferring Tesla's extended warranty and prepaid service plans to a new owner when selling a used Tesla. Owners of those plans can cancel and get a pro-rated reimbursement when selling the car, but they can no longer transfer it when selling the car. Previously, transferring those warranty and service plans to a new owner cost $100...

http://www.theverge.com/2016/2/14/10987320/tesla-service-price-increase-transferability

How low will the prices on a used Teslas be without warrantee coverage, given their demonstrated poor reliability?

So now, in addition to facing a monopoly, preventing negotiation on the purchase price, Tesla owners will be find their options on resale also largely restricted to Tesla, acting as a monopsony.

Remember when you complain about the dealership model used by all other USA Vehicle sellers.

The alternative just might be worse...

 

[Zythryn]

Tesla tightens the noose on its customers:

Tesla quietly raises prices, removes transferability from service options

In a quiet update to its policies, Tesla has raised prices on its after-sales service options, and — more significantly — now prevents new Tesla buyers from transferring their extended warranty and prepaid service plans when reselling the car.

By far the biggest change, at least as far as the impact on Tesla buyers goes, is the ban on transferring Tesla's extended warranty and prepaid service plans to a new owner when selling a used Tesla. Owners of those plans can cancel and get a pro-rated reimbursement when selling the car, but they can no longer transfer it when selling the car. Previously, transferring those warranty and service plans to a new owner cost $100...

http://www.theverge.com/2016/2/14/10987320/tesla-service-price-increase-transferability

How low will the prices on a used Teslas be without warrantee coverage, given their demonstrated poor reliability?

So now, in addition to facing a monopoly, preventing negotiation on the purchase price, Tesla owners will be find their options on resale also largely restricted to Tesla, acting as a monopsony.

Remember when you complain about the dealership model used by all other USA Vehicle sellers.

The alternative just might be worse...

Nonsense, there are tons of options.
Goi buy a BMW, or Audi, or Mercedes, or Porsche.
This talk of 'Monopoly' is ridiculous.

If people find they don't like the lack of an extended warrantee, I bet they can buy one.
If Tesla can't sell the CPOs anymore, that could be one factor, but I doubt it.

 

[edatoakrun]

="edatoakrun" Tesla tightens the noose on its customers:

Tesla quietly raises prices, removes transferability from service options
...

Or, Tesla raised the price, but the non-transferability change is now being claimed by Tesla to have been an error on its part.

30 page thread on the subject here:

Thread: [Resolved] Extended Service Agreements NO LONGER TRANSFERABLE

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/62361-Resolved-Extended-Service-Agreements-NO-LONGER-TRANSFERABLE

 

[lorenfb]

A lighthearted view of the latest Tesla conference call with continuing/unanswered issues for Tesla:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/389...bd0e2ddea6c2e68dd9320cb047&uprof=44&dr=1#alt3

Yes, the author is short the stock (PUTS), but he as usual raises key issues that most dismiss or
fail to refute!

 

[finman100]

sorry. shorters need not apply to the Tesla way of life. move on and bother some other company. Tesla is trying to change the world for betterment of all. Shorters? well, not so much. Go Elon!

 

[lorenfb]

sorry. shorters need not apply to the Tesla way of life. move on and bother some other company. Tesla is trying to change the world for betterment of all. Shorters? well, not so much. Go Elon!

Given the overwhelmingly number of irrational investors in TSLA, most all the financial fundamentals
of TSLA are totally ignored compared to other stocks, i.e. the stock price doesn't represent the present
value of its assets and future cash flows. Most TSLA investors believe the hyperbole of Tesla's investment
bankers, i.e. the ones profiting from stock & bond sales - Morgan Stanley, and Musk's typical obfuscation
of Tesla's business reality during conference calls and his projected "hyperbolic" future, i.e. the Model 3/Giga.

The typical TSLA investor believes that the Model 3 will be Tesla's future massive growth product and
"savior" for future profitability. Well, the Model 3 has competition now with the Bolt arriving in early
2017. What will Tesla really provide over the Bolt that will convince consumers to accept a 200 mile
BEV in huge numbers, which at this point GM doesn't forecast for the Bolt, to provide the needed cash
flow to sustain Tesla's overall business model? Have the $35K 200 mile BEV market forecasters been
overly optimistic as well as Tesla?

 

[GetOffYourGas]

What will Tesla really provide over the Bolt that will convince consumers to accept a 200 mile
BEV in huge numbers, which at this point GM doesn't forecast for the Bolt, to provide the needed cash
flow to sustain Tesla's overall business model?

1) A nation-wide Supercharging network
2) Production numbers to meet demand (i.e. much more than 30,000-50,000 per year)
3) A nation-wide Supercharging network
4) A company who historically stands behind EVs
5) A nation-wide Supercharging network
6) An appealing package - a sleek looking car with performance numbers to match
7) A nation-wide Supercharging network
8) Did I mention a nation-wide Supercharging network? No, this cannot be overstated when talking about a mainstream EV with expected production in the 100s of 1000s per year.

 

[Zythryn]

What will Tesla really provide over the Bolt that will convince consumers to accept a 200 mile
BEV in huge numbers, which at this point GM doesn't forecast for the Bolt, to provide the needed cash
flow to sustain Tesla's overall business model?

1) A nation-wide Supercharging network
2) Production numbers to meet demand (i.e. much more than 30,000-50,000 per year)
3) A nation-wide Supercharging network
4) A company who historically stands behind EVs
5) A nation-wide Supercharging network
6) An appealing package - a sleek looking car with performance numbers to match
7) A nation-wide Supercharging network
8) Did I mention a nation-wide Supercharging network? No, this cannot be overstated when talking about a mainstream EV with expected production in the 100s of 1000s per year.

Don't forget the ability to buy directly from a manufacturer and get the car serviced from a service center instructed to operate at zero profit.
I, for one, hate dealing with traditional auto dealers and am happy to not give them money to continue their cartel.

 

[lorenfb]

What will Tesla really provide over the Bolt that will convince consumers to accept a 200 mile
BEV in huge numbers, which at this point GM doesn't forecast for the Bolt, to provide the needed cash
flow to sustain Tesla's overall business model?

1) A nation-wide Supercharging network
2) Production numbers to meet demand (i.e. much more than 30,000-50,000 per year)
3) A nation-wide Supercharging network
4) A company who historically stands behind EVs
5) A nation-wide Supercharging network
6) An appealing package - a sleek looking car with performance numbers to match
7) A nation-wide Supercharging network
8) Did I mention a nation-wide Supercharging network? No, this cannot be overstated when talking about a mainstream EV with expected production in the 100s of 1000s per year.

You failed to answer the key issue, i.e. Is there a real volume market (> 30-50K/yr) for a 200 mile $35K+ BEV?
Just because Tesla can sell a "Rolex Watch" in an inelastic luxury automotive market doesn't translate
to a highly competitive typical consumer market. Besides, why the assumption that the typical ICEV
consumer will immediately disregard their BEV concerns, e.g. charging times, when the Model 3 arrives.
Furthermore, the BEV market has had a much lower growth rate recently, given the peaking of the
early-adopter segment. You, like many, ignore the perceived values of the typical low end consumer
automotive buyer.

Bottom line: The eight items (really just one) mentioned have little to no value for the typical ICEV consumer!

 

[GetOffYourGas]

What will Tesla really provide over the Bolt that will convince consumers to accept a 200 mile
BEV in huge numbers, which at this point GM doesn't forecast for the Bolt, to provide the needed cash
flow to sustain Tesla's overall business model?

1) A nation-wide Supercharging network
2) Production numbers to meet demand (i.e. much more than 30,000-50,000 per year)
3) A nation-wide Supercharging network
4) A company who historically stands behind EVs
5) A nation-wide Supercharging network
6) An appealing package - a sleek looking car with performance numbers to match
7) A nation-wide Supercharging network
8) Did I mention a nation-wide Supercharging network? No, this cannot be overstated when talking about a mainstream EV with expected production in the 100s of 1000s per year.

You failed to answer the key issue, i.e. Is there a real volume market (> 30-50K/yr) for a 200 mile $35K+ BEV?
Just because Tesla can sell a "Rolex Watch" in an inelastic luxury automotive market doesn't translate
to a highly competitive typical consumer market. Besides, why the assumption that the typical ICEV
consumer will immediately disregard their BEV concerns, e.g. charging times, when the Model 3 arrives.
Furthermore, the BEV market has had a much lower growth rate recently, given the peaking of the
early-adopter segment. You, like many, ignore the perceived values of the typical low end consumer
automotive buyer.

Bottom line: The eight items (really just one) mentioned have little to no value for the typical ICEV consumer!

You're correct, I didn't answer that question. I answered the question that you asked. You didn't ask whether there was a real volume market, you asked what Tesla offered to convince consumers to accept their EV.

 

[dgpcolorado]

I think that there are some people here who are going to be surprised with the high reservation numbers for the Model 3. They really don't get it. Yet. Or they are just trolling, as usual.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

One thing I think we all agree on is that the company's outlook is largely (if not entirely) dependent on the success of the Model III. Once the pre-orders open in March, we will have a good indication but hardly a guarantee. March 31st is tantalizingly close yet excruciatingly far way.

 

[lorenfb]

I think that there are some people here who are going to be surprised with the high reservation numbers for the Model 3. They really don't get it. Yet. Or they are just trolling, as usual.

Maybe, but mostly conversions from present BEV owners, e.g. Leaf & i3 owners and those that wanted a Tesla
S70 but out of their price range. Few, though, who presently drive a Honda, a Toyota Prius, or a $35-45K hybrid.
The Model 3 may actually cannibalize future Model S sales for those buyers who truly value a BEV versus the
"status symbol" Tesla buyer.

 

[Rebel44]

I think that there are some people here who are going to be surprised with the high reservation numbers for the Model 3. They really don't get it. Yet. Or they are just trolling, as usual.

Maybe, but mostly conversions from present BEV owners, e.g. Leaf & i3 owners and those that wanted a Tesla
S70 but out of their price range. Few, though, who presently drive a Honda, a Toyota Prius, or a $35-45K hybrid.
The Model 3 may actually cannibalize future Model S sales for those buyers who truly value a BEV versus the
"status symbol" Tesla buyer.

There are also quite a few people in places like EU, where Model S is just too big a car (narrow streets, parking issues etc.), who want a good EV and have no problem paying for it.

 

[Nubo]

I think that there are some people here who are going to be surprised with the high reservation numbers for the Model 3. They really don't get it. Yet. Or they are just trolling, as usual.

Maybe, but mostly conversions from present BEV owners, e.g. Leaf & i3 owners and those that wanted a Tesla
S70 but out of their price range. Few, though, who presently drive a Honda, a Toyota Prius, or a $35-45K hybrid.
The Model 3 may actually cannibalize future Model S sales for those buyers who truly value a BEV versus the
"status symbol" Tesla buyer.

There's definitely going to be a culture clash in the Tesla owner community. There is an air of elitism right now, imho and I'm not sure the existing base is going to welcome the hoi polloi with open arms. Especially if/when it starts impacting customer service levels and supercharger access. Though the clash may not last long due to sheer numerical advantage of the newcomers. The Tesla attraction may dim for the 1-percenters.

 

[mwalsh]

The Tesla attraction may dim for the 1-percenters.

And when it does, if the amount of pickup from the proletariat does not equal or surpass the revenues lost from the abhorrent rich...well, doom and gloom for those long in TSLA.

 

[edatoakrun]

Why TSLA wanted publicity this week to focus on the cars it hasn't yet started to manufacture?

Tesla missed guidance with only 14,820 vehicles delivered in Q1 2016, blames Model X supplier parts shortages

Today Tesla announced deliveries for the first quarter 2016 and the company missed its delivery goal of 16,000 units, with only 14,820 total deliveries from January to March...

http://electrek.co/2016/04/04/tesla-deliveries-q1-2016/

 

[palmermd]

Why TSLA wanted publicity this week to focus on the cars it hasn't yet started to manufacture?

Tesla missed guidance with only 14,820 vehicles delivered in Q1 2016, blames Model X supplier parts shortages

Today Tesla announced deliveries for the first quarter 2016 and the company missed its delivery goal of 16,000 units, with only 14,820 total deliveries from January to March...

http://electrek.co/2016/04/04/tesla-deliveries-q1-2016/

Have you increased your short position on reading this news? It does not seem very important to me for my long term holdings of TSLA.

News of 300,000 reservations for their next vehicle seems far more important.