Official Tesla Model S thread

[abasile]

The majority of Model S sales are 85kwh cars, why would anyone need to take a survey. The writing is on the wall. It's simple, people want range.

Thank you.
It never ceases to amaze me that so many businesses look to "data" to glean insights that should be obvious to anyone with a little common sense.

Why use human intelligence when you can spend millions of dollars mining "Big Data"?

You can even do "sentiment analysis" on Big Data and attempt to figure out what people think. At least as long as they aren't being sarcastic. :lol:

 

[Ogi]

Last time I checked Tesla can't build a Leaf & Nissan can't build Model S. Looks like they are equal.

What part of a Tesla can't Nissan build? They are a full range car maker, they have all the platforms and they have the capability to build electric cars - have had it for a long time. What they lack is vision.

No, they are not equal. One of them has been wasting time. And is now wasting even more time on "surveys".

 

[Stoaty]

What part of a Tesla can't Nissan build? They are a full range car maker, they have all the platforms and they have the capability to build electric cars - have had it for a long time. What they lack is vision.

I think it would be wise to wait until worldwide sales of Teslas exceed those of Nissan BEV before making that determination. They are currently selling to different market segments pricewise. If they start competing in the same price segment we will be able to make a good comparison.

 

[TomT]

It would be more accurate to say that Nissan can build a Tesla but lacks the vision to do so, and that Telsa can build a Leaf but knows better than to do so...

Last time I checked Tesla can't build a Leaf & Nissan can't build Model S.

 

[palmermd]

It would be more accurate to say that Nissan can build a Tesla but lacks the vision to do so, and that Telsa can build a Leaf but knows better than to do so...

Last time I checked Tesla can't build a Leaf & Nissan can't build Model S.

+1 that about sums it up. I cant wait to place my deposit on the Model E. It's not a Leaf competitor, but it will replace my Leaf.

 

[EvansvilleLeaf]

I think there is some EV bubble thinking here. People who are in the Tesla financial bracket may want range at any cost but anybody who spends time on non EV-centric boards with a substantial following of green-leaning types can tell you affordability is a far more common issue than range in adopting EVs in the first place. Environmentally conscious commuters are less likely to support 50 mile commutes in any vehicle, so paying for and hauling around huge battery packs to accommodate them would be needless. In talking about the Leaf I get "why does it cost twice as much as the Versa?" about ten to one compared to "why can it only go 75 miles?". you cannot extrapolate the choices of $70-110k car buyers to <$30k car buyers. Porsche would sell very few 11 sec 0-60 911s at half the price. Bentley would sell very few 4cyl vinyl seaters with plastic dashes at half the price. Tesla did sell very few 40kwh packs at a bit over half the price, but that does not mean Nissan could sell 50kwh Leafs at twice the price. The high end specialty makers' market does not extend to the mass market.

Real world experience as well as data shows that the vast majority of drivers could accommodate the vast majority of their needs with Leaf range. I have one not because I cannot afford a Tesla (although I confess a loaded P85 would represent a significant investment for me) but because the half-dozen times a year I drive further than Leaf range I also drive further than Tesla range, usually not near the superchargers, and usually not wanting to wait for them if I did. So I spent less than the base Tesla on a Leaf for the day to day and a GT convertible for fun/long road trips, both being better for their respective uses for me personally than a Tesla of any level. Those who are more environmentally conscious or cash-strapped than I can buy the Leaf and afford to rent a road trip car for those few days they exceed Leaf range with no supercharger dependency and longer range for far less than a Tesla over its conceivable life (min of $40k in rental space!)

This is not in any way knocking Teslas. Fine cars, wonderfully designed, which created an entire market single handed. That market however is dependent on extremely affluent buyers who don't need to care about $20k for twice the range. Leafs only sold to such buyers who were EV early adopters at any price. That market's gone. They, heck we I suppose as I was one of the Spring 2010 depositors, already have EVs. To expand the market, at the socioeconomic segment that would potentially ever be satisfied with a plebeian car like the Leaf, they can't expect to mimic the behavior of high-end specialty marketers to the financial elites.

 

[kmp647]

As A Leaf owner looking for his next ride I read everything that comes out in the news on EV's and PHEVS, aside from a used Model S at some point the only option I see from my point right now

2015 Leaf assuming a range increase (larger pack) is offered

2015 Volt

Leaf, Volt, and model S, no other companys product shows anything but vaporware or compliance models

I wont buy another Leaf if the range remains the same.

 

[mkjayakumar]

Last time I checked Tesla can't build a Leaf & Nissan can't build Model S.

Tesla can easily build a Leaf if they wanted to, but they are are smart enough not to.

 

[smkettner]

Tesla/LEAF with 180 mile EPA range and 10 kW OBC. I am thinking it might just sell.
Just need to leverage the RAV4 drivetrain into the LEAF.

 

[evnow]

It would be more accurate to say that Nissan can build a Tesla but lacks the vision to do so, and that Telsa can build a Leaf but knows better than to do so...

No - Tesla can't build and sell Leaf < 30k. Nissan can't build Model S with the battery (density) they have.

Obviously I'm talking about "today" rather than far into the future.

People apparently forget Leaf is the largest selling EV - and not Model S.

 

[N952JL]

Nissan is surveying Tesla owners...

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1090478_nissan-surveys-tesla-owners-for-intelligence-on-electric-cars" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

For Nissan to really understand use patterns, they need to do a lot more than just look at a "typical week". they'd be best to look at an "atypical week", or even better, several years of use patterns. inconvenience is what stands out, even if it's infrequent. Tracking Leaf use is self fulfilling, it's too tempting to look at the total miles driven and so forth as proof of adequacy, but to really get the real picture they need to look at what was omitted, the places the Leaf was not taken by the owner because of limitations. To understand where the gaps are, they'd need to track when the Leaf was left at home and another car was taken and they'd need to track user stress and fast charging reliability.

For our family, we've "only" had the car towed once and "only" been stuck at a charging station once over these years of ownership. it doesn't really sound that bad and yet those two experiences left a lasting impression. sitting for 3 hours with two kids in diapers in a fogged up car in a cold, dark parking garage till the middle of the night forever changed our impression of the car and what we considered reasonable. our use patterns changed after that, my wife simply was not willing to get in that kind of a position again. The Leaf introduced us to many of the benefits of EV ownership but also to the biggest limitation. As more reports came in of fast chargers malfunctioning and people even having to spend the night in their car while it charged on the adjacent L2 charging station, we drove began only driving the Leaf within it's single charge range. When we got our Tesla S, it was sweet release to never have to contend with messed up public chargers or lines again. We went from driving 12K Leaf miles a year to driving 3-4K. a 150-200 mile range Leaf would dramatically improve user experience, not day to day user experience, but overall, long term experience. daily commute is the lowest common denominator, people buy cars more for their greatest common denominator, the infrequent long distance travel needs. The Leaf can certainly work as a decent second car, but sometimes both cars in a household need to go long distances on the same day. For the mass market to accept the Leaf, it need to be able to be used more than "most of the time".

The Tesla S, so far, has met all of our needs with respect to range all the time and that is the metric by which people tend to choose their next vehicle.

I have been saying the same thing for over two years and have been criticized for it. I have long be telling people the sweet size is about 200 to 300 mile range. When people ask me about my leaf, I tell them it handles about 95% of all my trips, but only about 55% of my yearly mileage. And that 70% is mostly because I am taking care of my 92 year old mother who doesn't want to travel. I use to put about 24K miles a year on a car. My Honda Prelude was 12 years old (86 - 98) and 287K miles when the transmission wore out. Now I'm down to about 12K year but less than 15K in 27 months in the leaf. The other 45% of my yearly mileage is going on trips to visit my sister, brother or airport. Now I knew this up front and never had the Leaf as my only car. And like you I never drive more than 1/2 range in any direction. Luckily there is one public L2 in downtown Macon which I can use when I go to a show or dinner downtown. I live in Warner Robins so going to work that day, and then to a show after work puts a real strain on one charge, so it is nice to have the charger there, and since a show last at least two hrs I can get 6KW while I watch the show, or eat dinner etc.

Even if L3 charging were available I would not be using the Leaf for any real trips. A trip to the airport in Atlanta would require two charge stops. Who wants to spend 45 mins on the interstate then pull over for 30 mins to recharge enough to allow another 40 mins. It would take at least 45 mins to an hr of recharging time for the 90 min drive with no traffic. That isn't going to happen. The sweet spot is 3 to 4 hrs driving for a 40 to hr stop. In the gas car it is normally a 3 to 4 hrs and a 15 to 30 min fuel stop.

 

[N952JL]

... they should have put out variants of the Leaf with different battery pack sizes and they would have hard proprietary empirical data on how those bigger batteries were being used - frequency, distance, geolocations - everything. Free data. Hard numbers. Own customers.

They would have - if it was possible.

People simply don't understand - Leaf doesn't have the space for any more battery (unless they eat up trunk space).

I disagree. The Leaf could hold a floor pan battery just like the Tesla's. If it did I'm sure you could put 40 to 60 kw pack between the front and rear wheels.

 

[N952JL]

It would be more accurate to say that Nissan can build a Tesla but lacks the vision to do so, and that Telsa can build a Leaf but knows better than to do so...

Last time I checked Tesla can't build a Leaf & Nissan can't build Model S.

+100

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

If nissan is lacking vision in electrification what does that say about the other 94% of the industry?

 

[Ogi]

We are talking about a laggard industry that has had to be bailed out globally time and again. As such even being even 95th percentile in this sector is nothing to be proud of. They all need to transform or die.

 

[donald]

I disagree. The Leaf could hold a floor pan battery just like the Tesla's. If it did I'm sure you could put 40 to 60 kw pack between the front and rear wheels.

And how do you know this?

That would make it a 2 tonne Leaf. That chassis isn't built for that. You'd end up with a different car with all the additional engineering required to make that happen.

Leaf is only a C-segment floor pan. It's not big enough, with current battery tech in hand. They'd have to make a new, larger model and Nissan [Infiniti] have now dropped the idea of finishing development of the Infiniti EV from any near-term goals.

I think even Nissan would've left provision for additional battery capacity upgrades, if it were possible. Clearly, the 500kg differential between kerb weight and GVM is too small to add much more mass. It is only just enough for 5 passengers and a bit of luggage.

 

[JasonA]

And I disagree with the above statements Donald(we agree to disagree) :lol:

The Leaf can hold 5-8kw minimum more capacity in pack size, extend it into the EMPTY region where there is useless space in the once spare tire area, etc,etc..

A 30+kw Leaf with 100+ mile solid range would sell VERY well and do very well because it has good aerodynamics on the hwy. That would translate to even better around town!

And energy density is only going up :roll:

This whole thing about Nissan dropping the Infinity EV project has NOT been confirmed yet by official sources (aka Nissan/Goshen)... but they will lose out once Tesla hits with the E.

no doubt.

 

[donald]

I'd agree it could handle an extra 25% expansion of the battery pack, but unfortunately you can't simply add on that much because you have to stick with 96 cells in series for the system voltage to be preserved, else there is a lot more re-engineering required. You'd also have to make sure the extra cells were fully paralleled with the existing cells. You'd then have to re-engineer the BMS to handle and monitor more cells. If any cells in the additional parallel set went awry then you can't shunt them like you can with 2p2s cell modules. You'd have to ensure crashworthiness, so the car would have to be rehomologated. etc. etc..

Would Nissan do this to the existing model? I can't see it. They'd just engineer for it in the next model. The current Leaf is 24kWh (21.4 useable), and that's the way this particular model will stay. Sorry to disappoint, but there is no proper engineering argument I can see for Leaf to become remotely competitive on range to Tesla on its current floor-pan.

 

[evnow]

I disagree. The Leaf could hold a floor pan battery just like the Tesla's. If it did I'm sure you could put 40 to 60 kw pack between the front and rear wheels.

You should read the old threads (3 year old now) where we discuss in detail why Leaf's back seats are raised which forced the roofline to be raised increasing air drag etc.

No, Leaf can't hold more of the current battery - except by sacrificing trunk space.

My original statement stands - people simply don't understand the volume restrictions in Leaf.

 

[evnow]

If nissan is lacking vision in electrification what does that say about the other 94% of the industry?

Saying Nissan lacks vision is like saying the match/game is over after first five minutes. We still don't know whether it is better to use inherently dangerous Li Co cells or inherently safe Li Mn cells.

Comparing Tesla & Nissan strategy is like comparing a Corolla & BMW 7 series and declaring that Toyota has no vision compared to BMW. In 3 years we will know - let us see how the next gen Leaf/LE compares to next gen Tesla.