Nissan says I can't buy a new battery pack even if I want to

[TaylorSFGuy]

Thanks everyone. Extra Kwh is what I need to stay with anything electric. I am upside down on the 2011 so there is an exit cost - about equal to the savings over gasoline costs for my mileage. Is it reasonable to expect that the LEAF battery technology will bottom out at 70% of original capacity?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Thanks everyone. Extra Kwh is what I need to stay with anything electric. I am upside down on the 2011 so there is an exit cost - about equal to the savings over gasoline costs for my mileage. Is it reasonable to expect that the LEAF battery technology will bottom out at 70% of original capacity?

no, not at all. the 70% figure is essentially a figure arrived at arbitrarily due to the weight/performance expectation. unlike a half empty gas tank, the LEAF pack will weigh the same. the more degradation you have, the more dead weight you are hauling around.

if it fits your needs, you can run the pack down to 50% degradation

 

[surfingslovak]

Thanks everyone. Extra Kwh is what I need to stay with anything electric. I am upside down on the 2011 so there is an exit cost - about equal to the savings over gasoline costs for my mileage. Is it reasonable to expect that the LEAF battery technology will bottom out at 70% of original capacity?

Yes, I believe that Nissan said something along those lines. Personally, I believe that calendar losses, which happen when the battery is just sitting around doing nothing, have a good chance of slowing down significantly as the battery ages. Typically, square root of time is assumed for that. Cycling losses are presumed to be more linear, although we would expect to see some slowdown there as well.

This is just a guess, but I would think that due to the high miles on your Leaf, more than half of the range loss you are seeing can be attributed to cycling losses. With other folks, especially in warmer climates, it's likely the other way around. Please keep in mind that we are all making educated assumptions here, since there is little official guidance available.

 

[TonyWilliams]

Thanks everyone. Extra Kwh is what I need to stay with anything electric. I am upside down on the 2011 so there is an exit cost - about equal to the savings over gasoline costs for my mileage. Is it reasonable to expect that the LEAF battery technology will bottom out at 70% of original capacity?

If "bottom out" means hit the floor, then yes. In your ideal weather up there, the battery will follow a curve that of about 10% drop initially (first / second year), then 3-4% drop per year until about 70%, when the capacity losses will drastically accelerate.

Obviously, we can't apply neat and tidy earth years to your car because of the high usage.

 

[JeremyW]

I wonder how much these guys would sell a pack to you for: http://www.autobeyours.com/rebuildable Pruii.htm

Cycling losses are presumed to be more linear, although we would expect to see some slowdown there as well.

I think this is theoretically true but isn't in practice. More of the total capacity in the pack is used per trip. In other words, the cycles get "deeper" as the pack ages, increasing wear. I'd bet good money that the cycling losses are not linear with time. :?

 

[EVDrive]

Amazing job driving that many miles... Roadrunner!

I would suggest keeping it for 3 more months, and then trading it up for a 2013 with a faster charger and a better heater. the model s is another great suggestion... I am considering that route as well.

Good luck!

 

[TomT]

Funny conversation today... I talked to CS to update them on my capacity loss and he mentioned that I could always buy a new pack if I felt the need... I mentioned that that would be hard to do when Nissan did not offer them nor have a price for them... That ended that conversation!

He also mentioned that they had checked with the dealer and that my annual battery report was good. I pointed out that that report was now 8 months old and therefore hardly relevant... Again, another dead end conversation.

Not impressed!

 

[surfingslovak]

I think this is theoretically true but isn't in practice. More of the total capacity in the pack is used per trip. In other words, the cycles get "deeper" as the pack ages, increasing wear. I'd bet good money that the cycling losses are not linear with time. :?

That's a good point. We, as mere mortals, tend to measure degradation in earth years (to borrow Tony's term), and not necessarily in cycles. With diminishing battery capacity, we will need more of these cycles to achieve the same annual mileage. While the battery is always fully cycled in lab tests, this is not necessarily true of our cars. We might end up running shallower cycles early in the life of the battery, and deeper cycles towards the end. Under these circumstances, we might see accelerated annual cycling losses.

I heard about the cliff around 70% remaining capacity Tony mentioned above. I don't know enough to say much about it, but I remember adric22 mentioning that laptop cells tend to fail around year seven or eight. He has apparently seen a lot of that in his business.

What I do know is that the battery capacity gauge seems to be indexed from 100% all the way down to about 18%. This could be indicative of the fact that the Leaf will be drivable with a severely degraded battery, and when all the battery capacity bars have disappeared, the pack has only about 4 kWh usable energy left. If this was true, you would be essentially getting a low battery warning (and corresponding range) on a full charge.

He also mentioned that they had checked with the dealer and that my annual battery report was good. I pointed out that that report was now 8 months old and therefore hardly relevant... Again, another dead end conversation.

Not impressed!

I'm nearly certain that 877-NO-GAS-EV is outsourced to TeleTech Services. They seem to be well established in the automotive industry. Although based on your experience, one has to wonder what attrition rate these phone agents had, and what kind of training they received. One my first phone calls to them was about battery capacity. I thought that close to 24 kWh would be usable, which was the only figure mentioned in manufacturer advertising. Silly me.

Nissan is probably not alone with this. My favorite recent tech support experience was when the ActiveE left me stranded due to the infamous drivetrain malfunction. The agent answering my emergency call insisted on going through a checklist devised for conventional gas-powered BMWs to see if we could get the car moving again that way. Needless to say, this was a colossal waste of time at a very inopportune moment.

 

[WetEV]

If "bottom out" means hit the floor, then yes. In your ideal weather up there, the battery will follow a curve that of about 10% drop initially (first / second year), then 3-4% drop per year until about 70%, when the capacity losses will drastically accelerate.

I'm with you until you get to drastically accelerate. Not clear, depends on lots of factors not known and may vary with conditions.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Thanks everyone. Extra Kwh is what I need to stay with anything electric. I am upside down on the 2011 so there is an exit cost - about equal to the savings over gasoline costs for my mileage. Is it reasonable to expect that the LEAF battery technology will bottom out at 70% of original capacity?

If "bottom out" means hit the floor, then yes. In your ideal weather up there, the battery will follow a curve that of about 10% drop initially (first / second year), then 3-4% drop per year until about 70%, when the capacity losses will drastically accelerate.

Obviously, we can't apply neat and tidy earth years to your car because of the high usage.

this would imply a very poor secondary market application for used battery packs where weight and size are less critical. definitely not the common perception in the industry

 

[TaylorSFGuy]

I wonder how much these guys would sell a pack to you for: http://www.autobeyours.com/rebuildable Pruii.htm

I emailed autobeyours and they are only rebuilding and using/selling complete LEAFs. No parting at this time.

On the battery bottom - I was asking if the battery will go below 70% of original capacity and the answer appears to be yes. So I'm wondering if any EV is for me - I'd be in the same position at some point no matter how large the pack is.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I wonder how much these guys would sell a pack to you for: http://www.autobeyours.com/rebuildable Pruii.htm

I emailed autobeyours and they are only rebuilding and using/selling complete LEAFs. No parting at this time.

On the battery bottom - I was asking if the battery will go below 70% of original capacity and the answer appears to be yes. So I'm wondering if any EV is for me - I'd be in the same position at some point no matter how large the pack is.

now that is a question only you can answer. I am guessing that better battery management could easily allow you to win the long term TCO question (since gas prices still average over $4 a gallon here) although with the distance you have to drive, it does make it tougher.

I take it there is no viable options to have the Mrs. drive it when it wont work for you?

as far as the EV experience, you already know about that. it is a tough call. it is really too bad the RAV 4 EV wont be available here. I know a few of the people lucky enough to be invited by Toyota to test drive it and it has plenty of range that would cover you for years. One stated they figured they would get about 120 miles of range and that was with 4 in the car driving 65 mph with A/C blasting in the Southern California Sun.

 

[Herm]

this would imply a very poor secondary market application for used battery packs where weight and size are less critical. definitely not the common perception in the industry

These 70% batteries would work very well (decades) in the grid stabilization industry.. lots of microcycles but very shallow discharge of 1% or so..

 

[DaveEV]

On the battery bottom - I was asking if the battery will go below 70% of original capacity and the answer appears to be yes. So I'm wondering if any EV is for me - I'd be in the same position at some point no matter how large the pack is.

Well - it depends on how many miles/years you expect to get out of it before replacing the battery or the car. With a sufficiently large battery pack and you needing 65 miles between charges and putting on 50k miles / year, you just have to run some rough numbers to determine what makes sense for you.

Some people have said that battery capacity will fall off a cliff at some point. I don't agree unless a cell completely fails - which means that a simple cell replacement should restore capacity.

It's pretty clear that at this point in time, you're not happy with losing ~10% capacity after 18 months and 50k miles. This is probably the worst of it as Nissan says that the rate of capacity loss should slow down after the first 10% of loss. Unfortunately, we are in uncharted territory here and Nissan has not given us the data we need as consumers to estimate loss over time/miles.

If you're looking for the easiest way to keep your commute costs down while not having to worry about range - a PHEV may work. You'll get ~22 EV miles/day (better than most people who will only charge once/day) and for the other ~113 miles you'll get the absolute best fuel economy (~50 mpg). The C-MAX Energi will get you about ~42 EV miles/day, but the other 93 miles will be at ~43 mpg so gasoline consumption will be similar to the Prius. The Volt will get you about 76 EV miles/day, but the other 59 miles will be at 40 mpg - so you'll burn less gas than in the Prius or Energi.

Or simply acknowledge that you'll have to trade in your LEAF every ~2 years until you get an EV with more range.

 

[Drivesolo]

Hey Steve, I don't know if anyone has suggested this as an option yet, but is there a possibility of a swap + cash w/ an existing Leaf owner? This is fairly common practice that some automotive enthusiasts do as far as wheels, differentials, suspension components, exhausts, various performance parts and to a lesser extent, engines. The premiss is that someone would be willing to swap their higher capacity batt for your batt + cash. This practice is most commonly done for someone looking to sell their car. The loss of value for a downgraded car that now possesses the less desirable part can be compensated for by the additional cash in the swap transaction.

 

[WetEV]

So I'm wondering if any EV is for me - I'd be in the same position at some point no matter how large the pack is.

Batteries lose capacity.

If batteries were cheap, of course it wouldn't matter much. But batteries are expensive.

How can we get to minimum total cost of ownership? Too small of battery means more frequent replacements need due to smaller lost capacity, with much of the loss due to cycling. Too large of battery costs more up front, and the battery still loses capacity due to calendar loss.

I might go all engineering here and derive a optimum battery size based on a life model, usage, assumptions about future battery replacement costs, discount rates and such but rather that that I'm just going to say that the answer is probably somewhere around twice the size of the average usual cycle. We don't know enough for a much better answer than that, we don't even know the current price of a replacement battery pack. Much smaller battery than 2x average cycle, and battery replacements are far too frequent. Much larger than 2x, and the up front cost is too high.

TaylorSFGuy does not have a large enough battery in a Leaf for his commute. What he needs is a larger battery pack, not a replacement pack or a new Leaf. Or a shorter commute.

Suppose he had a pack 1.2x larger. Rather than using 70% of the capacity when new, and starting to exceed 80% now that the pack as lost 10%, he would have started using 50% of the pack, and wouldn't have ran into LBW until the pack was down ~30%, which would have been more than three times the months and miles. Is that the optimum size? Probably not, but it is closer.

So is there a way to get a 29 kWh battery pack into a Leaf??

 

[Stoaty]

It's pretty clear that at this point in time, you're not happy with losing ~10% capacity after 18 months and 50k miles. This is probably the worst of it as Nissan says that the rate of capacity loss should slow down after the first 10% of loss. Unfortunately, we are in uncharted territory here and Nissan has not given us the data we need as consumers to estimate loss over time/miles.

My battery aging model predicts a loss of 11.6% for TaylorSF at 18 months and 50,000 miles, assuming 4 miles per kwh. Again, the model appears to be very close. If TaylorSF continues his present driving pattern, the model predicts:

85% remaining capacity at 2.2 years of ownership
80% remaining capacity at 3.3 years of ownership
75% remaining capacity at 4.5 years of ownership
70% remaining capacity at 5.7 years of ownership

While he is in one of the best climates in the U.S. for maintaining Leaf battery capacity, the high mileage of 33,000 miles per year gives his Leaf only a moderate improvement over Phoenix re: time to end of life (EOL - 70%). However, at EOL he would have traveled about 190,000 miles. Unfortunately, this prediction isn't going to help him much, even if extremely accurate, since he has a long commute. I agree that he needs an EV with a larger battery if he sticks with an EV.

 

[surfingslovak]

While he is in one of the best climates in the U.S. for maintaining Leaf battery capacity, the high mileage of 33,000 miles per year gives his Leaf only a moderate improvement over Phoenix re: time to end of life (EOL - 70%).

If that's the case, could he simply dip below the low battery warning? This seemed to be the problem for a several owners in Phoenix. Reduced range above LBW, combined with the low GOM estimate, made their one-way commute difficult.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

It's pretty clear that at this point in time, you're not happy with losing ~10% capacity after 18 months and 50k miles. This is probably the worst of it as Nissan says that the rate of capacity loss should slow down after the first 10% of loss. Unfortunately, we are in uncharted territory here and Nissan has not given us the data we need as consumers to estimate loss over time/miles.

My battery aging model predicts a loss of 11.6% for TaylorSF at 18 months and 50,000 miles, assuming 4 miles per kwh. Again, the model appears to be very close. If TaylorSF continues his present driving pattern, the model predicts:

85% remaining capacity at 2.2 years of ownership
80% remaining capacity at 3.3 years of ownership
75% remaining capacity at 4.5 years of ownership
70% remaining capacity at 5.7 years of ownership

While he is in one of the best climates in the U.S. for maintaining Leaf battery capacity, the high mileage of 33,000 miles per year gives his Leaf only a moderate improvement over Phoenix re: time to end of life (EOL - 70%). However, at EOL he would have traveled about 190,000 miles. Unfortunately, this prediction isn't going to help him much, even if extremely accurate, since he has a long commute. I agree that he needs an EV with a larger battery if he sticks with an EV.

ok i was guessing winter range degradation would put him at no more than "about" 15% degradation to allow him to make his 64 mile commute. guessing at "about 19 Kwh stored winter energy @ 100% capacity would mean at 85% he would have 16.15 Kwh stored energy so his range would be down to 64.6 miles @ 4 miles/kwh.

problem with cutting it that close is heavy rain or fog requiring higher than normal defrost would probably put him below 4 miles/Kw making it unlikely he could make it two years but I think he will be ok for this winter and Summer he has extra range but next winter he wont be able to make it.

PLUS, he has not had his LEAF that long... well actually he is closer than i thought. i thought he got his in July. he is actually only a couple weeks short of 18 months.

 

[abasile]

I have to concur with those who have suggested the possibility of adding battery capacity from the aftermarket. Spending a few thousand for a few more kWh could help keep an existing LEAF battery pack viable for as long as another few years. This is an option I might want to consider as well, as it could be a whole lot less expensive than changing cars.

Currently, if I leave work with 70% charge and keep my speed down, I make it home close to LBW. I am really hoping, before winter starts, to secure permission to charge at work daily; otherwise, the LEAF will not be viable without creative measures (like using my bicycle for part of the commute). Particularly with a cold battery which really limits regen at higher SOCs, it isn't always possible to arrive at work with 70% unless I am willing to ride the friction brakes all the way down the mountain, which I am not.

If my wife and I were less conservative financially, then I would probably purchase a RAV4 EV or Tesla S, and thus have a large enough battery pack to not have to worry about charging at work or driving slowly.

The most conservative approach is quite often to keep what you've got (the LEAF in our case) and figure out how to make it work. I can't think of a better way to do this than to add more battery capacity once it becomes available from a reputable source. And like many here, I have zero desire to go back to regular gasoline use.