July Plugin Sales : Leaf 395, Volt 1849, PIP 688, FFE 38

[Pipcecil]

Honestly, cost savings only plays a bigger role the farther you drive. Me, I drive a heck of alot, I put 15k in 9 months!!! And guess what? I NET save 250 per month versus my previous car (this excludes any maintenance and thats when gas was at $3.25ish). Add maintenance, and I probably hit maybe 275-300 (depends how much you average maintenance). So I pay 500 per month on my vehicle from purchase....now, its 250-200 per month. Try getting a car with that payment that has the amenities the leaf has (nav system, touch screen interface, sound damping cabin, etc. etc.). Unless you are really lucky, that price point would buy me an econobox on wheels. So the leaf is saving me money, easily over what I would have bought. That price also excludes the big chunck of tax return I got too, which I used to pay off our other car and made some home efficiency improvements. Try to calcualte the indirect savings from interest and electricty efficiency improvements, and you got even more.

Granted I may be in the minority (which i probably am in many categories - mileage, age, reasons to purchase car, etc.), but my demographic will easily expand as price drops and/or the younger generation gets more money.

 

[klapauzius]

One more thought on cost savings vs. ICE

The battery,even after an assumed 50% capacity loss, will not be a complete loss either...There will be a market for used batteries as power storage devices.

Overall in the long term I am confident the LEAF will result in a significant net savings over any ICE as commuter car. I dont care much about resale value, as I plan to drive it until it falls apart (and yes, that means I will replace the battery at some point).

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

These are all good arguments but they are lost on the average Joe in the showroom looking at a car that costs $10k more who is not as analytical as people here.

 

[RegGuheert]

I dont care much about resale value, as I plan to drive it until it falls apart (and yes, that means I will replace the battery at some point).

I am in full agreement with you on this point and we plan to do the same, but I don't know very many other people who buy new cars and keep them forever. Certainly I believe that low resale value is drawback of BEVs versus ICEVs or HEVs.

 

[RegGuheert]

These are all good arguments but they are lost on the average Joe in the showroom looking at a car that costs $10k more who is not as analytical as people here.

Agreed, but when I was shopping two weeks ago, the Volt was $10,000 more than the 2011 LEAF demo that we bought. Point being that there is more to this equation, including range anxiety, 0% financing, etc.

 

[TRONZ]

Did the global sales figures show up yet anywhere? It's always nice to see the real number of cars displacing oil.

 

[klapauzius]

These are all good arguments but they are lost on the average Joe in the showroom looking at a car that costs $10k more who is not as analytical as people here.

Its a car for smart people...I hope that will be enough to keep sales going until "the average" Joe catches up. $5 gas will certainly help.

 

[lpickup]

These are all good arguments but they are lost on the average Joe in the showroom looking at a car that costs $10k more who is not as analytical as people here.

Yes, and that is perhaps Train's argument.

But still, I think that line of reasoning is based on excessive exaggeration and extrapolation, cherry-picking data, and stereotyping the average Joe as the hard and fast naysayer. That has certainly not been my experience in talking with people in real life. Most have been interested and while they do ask the usual questions: how much does it cost? how far can it go? how long does it take to charge? they at least continue to be interested (or at least pretend to).

Take for example one of Train's statements which seems typical of his points:

You're assuming everyone will qualify for the full $7500 tax credit, they will not. Add $2000 for installation of a 220. Add the tax, add destination, you're right back up the MSRP. In five years, how much will the the battery degrade in the Leaf? 20 miles worth? 30 miles worth?

First he starts with the most expensive trim and adds $750 to the cost just for the heck of it. $38000-$7500 = $30500. Add $2000 for installation of L2 EVSE. Admittedly I don't have data here, but that definitely seems like it's on the high side, even for AV units. But fine, let's say Nissan advertises that as a typical cost. $32500. Destination: $850 (?) $33350. Tax? That's going to vary quite a bit state by state. Let's go with 8% though. That's $2668, for a total of $36018, or almost $2000 below the originally stated $38000. That's the naysayers way of thinking though, keep rounding the bad stuff up and the good stuff down. Plus I'm not sure why the average Joe would think that a gas car was exempt from all these fees. The only one in there that is truly extra is the EVSE cost.

Okay, so the other part of that statement was 5 year battery degradation. Again, the hint of truth in there is the 20-30 miles worth of degradation. Yes, there will be degradation. But the generally accepted estimate is 70% (30 miles) after 8 years / 100K miles, not 5 years. I'll grant you that battery longevity was one of my biggest concerns, but after learning of the length of the warranty period I was sold right away. So I doubt that is getting in the way of an educated buyer.

I could go on with many of the rest of Train's points and refute or at least expose the exaggerations, but maybe that's not his point. Maybe his point is, as LTLFT said, is that the general impression of those things are causing a lack of demand, vs. a supply shortage. And that's where the cherry picking comes into play. If that's true, then why did Volt sales rebound so dramatically in March? I know that it's not apples to apples, but if the focus of the average buyer is so much on cost (I think the example given was a $19K Prius C hybrid?) and batteries, then why in the world are people paying MORE than the cost of a LEAF for the Volt? And why don't we see any LEAFs on dealer lots in many areas?

Sorry, I'm not buying the lack of demand argument. I do agree that there are a LOT of people for which the LEAF is definitely not an appropriate vehicle choice. I also agree that there are a LOT of people that haven't done their homework to actually research the issues they are worried about (cost, range, charging time, etc.) But that's fine because I think even if you take those people away there are still enough left over worldwide to soak up the current production capacity of Nissan.

And this is besides the point, but once THOSE people start getting them and illustrating their value and refuting the limitations, and start selling them to all the people that will never buy a new car, then demand for EVs will grow.

 

[TRONZ]

These are all good arguments but they are lost on the average Joe in the showroom looking at a car that costs $10k more who is not as analytical as people here.

Its a car for smart people...I hope that will be enough to keep sales going until "the average" Joe catches up. $5 gas will certainly help.

Interestingly, I have been seeing a record number of new Prius in our area with dealer plates. Easily a dozen or more a day. What it tells me is that the car has finally been accepted in very conservative South OC and part of the likely trigger is high gas prices. The real question is, where were these people 5 years ago. I guess smart comes quicker to some.... but it DOES come.

 

[KJD]

Interestingly, I have been seeing a record number of new Prius in our area with dealer plates. Easily a dozen or more a day. What it tells me is that the car has finally been accepted in very conservative South OC and part of the likely trigger is high gas prices.

Yes I think the price of gas has a lot to do with that.
The Prius numbers are talked about more in this article.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1074785_plug-in-car-sales-soar-in-march-led-by-chevrolet-volt" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Remarkably, Toyota sold 891 Prius Plug-In Hybrids in that car's first full month on the market--or about 3 percent of the 28,711 Priuses sold in March.

So Leaf sales = 579 and PIP sales = 891, How did this happen?

Could part of the reason be that there are 1000 gas stations for every single EV charge station ?

 

[TomT]

In all fairness, the first generation, and to a slightly less extent second generation, Prius were not very compelling automobiles... It wasn't until the the generation that they really became decent vehicles in their own right... They may have something to do the increased acceptance in later years...

Interestingly, I have been seeing a record number of new Prius in our area with dealer plates. Easily a dozen or more a day. What it tells me is that the car has finally been accepted in very conservative South OC and part of the likely trigger is high gas prices. The real question is, where were these people 5 years ago. I guess smart comes quicker to some.... but it DOES come.

 

[baronvonshush]

I could go on with many of the rest of Train's points and refute or at least expose the exaggerations, but maybe that's not his point. Maybe his point is, as LTLFT said, is that the general impression of those things are causing a lack of demand, vs. a supply shortage. And that's where the cherry picking comes into play. If that's true, then why did Volt sales rebound so dramatically in March? I know that it's not apples to apples, but if the focus of the average buyer is so much on cost (I think the example given was a $19K Prius C hybrid?) and batteries, then why in the world are people paying MORE than the cost of a LEAF for the Volt? And why don't we see any LEAFs on dealer lots in many areas?

I agree with your points, but I suspect the answer to this question (why are people paying MORE than the cost of a LEAF for the Volt) has a lot to do with the Volt's extended range. The fact is that people balk at the purchase of a car that can't go more than 100 miles (less than that under most conditions), even when it perfectly fits 99% of their driving. I see this a lot: "How far can it go on a charge? Less than 100 miles? Neat car, but not for me." Even when their daily driving is less than 50 miles, and longer trips only occur a few times a year.

Sorry, I'm not buying the lack of demand argument. I do agree that there are a LOT of people for which the LEAF is definitely not an appropriate vehicle choice. I also agree that there are a LOT of people that haven't done their homework to actually research the issues they are worried about (cost, range, charging time, etc.)

Yes, absolutely. It goes back to a lot of points already made in this thread. People in general aren't very good long-term planners. They don't think about long-term savings when buying a car. They look at MSRP and/or monthly payment. Maybe fuel efficiency, but there's a disconnect if a more expensive but more efficient car takes more than a year or two to make up the price difference in fuel savings.

And as others have said, an electric vehicle at this stage of the game is not really an impulse buy (I can't imagine buying a car on impulse, but a lot of people do!). Charging every night is super easy, but you do have to plan for it before taking the plunge. It will take time before that really changes.

But that's fine because I think even if you take those people away there are still enough left over worldwide to soak up the current production capacity of Nissan.

I hope so! The more people who buy now, the sooner we'll start to see significant improvements in infrastructure and technology.

 

[kmp647]

efficiency is always a hard sell in the US. take your house, most efficient might be geo-thermal heating and cooling, if you keep your home 20 years, solar too, not a good buy if you are flippin homes every 3-5 years

fancy on demand hot water heater $1200, or the 375 home depot jobber?
98% of the market goes for the tank type.(in this area anyway)
I could go on and on.... but I wont.

Its got to be a desirable car to sell, thats it.
10 years ago hummers were.
recently , hybrids , some time in the not to distant future BEV and or PHEV

 

[jim3cantos]

Ghosn doesn't seem very worried about Leaf sales:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=ES&v=InJm_s3YXzo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

from min 3:30 onwards.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

Nice post overall. Here's my latest theory to explain the growing divide between Leaf and Volt sales. GM appears to have possibly won the battle with conservative media. For the first time since the Volt's debut, Faux is airing positive things about it in March. Is it a coincidence that it's the first good month for Volt sales? The Volt is being pushed by rogue conservatives not for it's greenness but for how it's a tool for domestic energy independence, which really should be the tact for Nissan with the Leaf. I have been digging around for numbers and can't find any studies on the subject but I would bet that conservatives by and large purchase more new vehicles than liberals, particularly liberal environmentalists, the type that you would think would be most likely to buy the Leaf. Liberal environmentalists often aspire to voluntary simplicity, bicycles, mass transit and hate cars, especially new ones...

The difference in range between the Volt and Leaf is certainly a factor as well. With quick charging, we are all pretty much in a "believe it when we see it" holding pattern... the Leaf hasn't even had a chance to show where it shines the most. With DC QC's being installed then unplugged in CA due to excessive demand charges amongst other causes of delay, the pure EV crowd has not been given the confidence it needs to promote fast charging EV's. The quick charging network should have been the first thing to go in in terms of the public charging network... L2 is a pathetic joke to the mainstream. What's holding back the Leaf? ... impression!!

... If that's true, then why did Volt sales rebound so dramatically in March? I know that it's not apples to apples, but if the focus of the average buyer is so much on cost (I think the example given was a $19K Prius C hybrid?) and batteries, then why in the world are people paying MORE than the cost of a LEAF for the Volt? And why don't we see any LEAFs on dealer lots in many areas?
...

 

[DaveEV]

Ghosn doesn't seem very worried about Leaf sales:

Nope.

Another interview: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000082349&play=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In that interview Ghosn says these things:

Strong Yen is keeping US LEAF sales down - Nissan is holding back cars because of it.
In August battery production will start in Smyrma.
LEAF production will start by the end of the year.
In September Nissan will switch to a US cost basis and the price of the LEAF will go down which dramatically changes Nissan's cost basis for the LEAF.
Expect to see sales up dramatically starting in September as a result.

So I would expect to see sales remain flat for the LEAF until September. I am curious if they plan on shipping LEAFs in September using batteries from Smyrma to start taking advantage of the cheaper batteries.

 

[GRA]

I could go on with many of the rest of Train's points and refute or at least expose the exaggerations, but maybe that's not his point. Maybe his point is, as LTLFT said, is that the general impression of those things are causing a lack of demand, vs. a supply shortage. And that's where the cherry picking comes into play. If that's true, then why did Volt sales rebound so dramatically in March? I know that it's not apples to apples, but if the focus of the average buyer is so much on cost (I think the example given was a $19K Prius C hybrid?) and batteries, then why in the world are people paying MORE than the cost of a LEAF for the Volt? And why don't we see any LEAFs on dealer lots in many areas?

I agree with your points, but I suspect the answer to this question (why are people paying MORE than the cost of a LEAF for the Volt) has a lot to do with the Volt's extended range. The fact is that people balk at the purchase of a car that can't go more than 100 miles (less than that under most conditions), even when it perfectly fits 99% of their driving. I see this a lot: "How far can it go on a charge? Less than 100 miles? Neat car, but not for me." Even when their daily driving is less than 50 miles, and longer trips only occur a few times a year.

In addition to the above, as I've mentioned in other threads I believe a large number of Volt buyers in California were holding off their purchase until the HOV-compatible cars were available. I expected a sales spike in March for that reason, and lo and behold. Combine that with the debunking of the battery fire hysteria/right-wing blogosphere feeding frenzy, and some buyers who were on the fence were comfortable getting one.

So let's see if my next prediction is accurate; after a few months of boosted Volt sales (primarily due to the backlog of Ca. buyers who'd been holding off), Volt sales will level out or more likely fall as the PiP quickly takes a larger share of the market for people who just care about the HOV stickers, and the $19,000 Prius C soaks up much of the rest of the high efficiency market.

Of course, if gas prices go through the roof this summer that will boost all fuel-efficient car sales, altering the perceptions of the market.

[Added] Re Ghosn's comments: He would say there wasn't a problem, wouldn't he, just as Akerson and other GM types were denying that Volt sales were disappointing (before they admitted it and shut down the factory for a while)? His comments referenced in the post just above make more sense, and confirm that the Leaf is too expensive currently for the U.S. market - after all, the other cars that Nissan imports here also suffer from strong yen issues, but I doubt Nissan is holding them back.

But even if Leaf sales aren't disappointing on a global basis, it's necessary to remember that gas prices and other fees are a lot higher in many countries than the U.S., changing the equation. If gas costs you $10/gal. the economic argument is very different. I'm primarily interested in U.S. feasibility of BEVs, not what may make sense in the EU or Japan.

 

[spike09]

If the Leaf were $18,000, it would be the perfect commuter car, albeit still with one purpose-short range driving. At $38,000, even with incentives, it will not get past the novelty stage.

To those who are EV enthusiasts, objectivity can be a difficult thing. I guess it's going to take a few more months of 3 digit sales numbers to realize that Smyrna's going to have to find other plans for car production.

The '11 Leaf SV in CA when the CVRP was $5000 wasn't that far over $20K, except that you'd have to pay sales tax on the full price.

$38K with incentives is a serious exaggeration of the price. Unfortunately, '12 Leaf MSRPs have gone up and and the CVRP has become $2500, but it's still not $38K. (http://www.autoblog.com/2011/07/19/2012-nissan-leaf-higher-price-tag-standard-equipment/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and http://energycenter.org/index.php/incentive-programs/clean-vehicle-rebate-project/cvrp-eligible-vehicles" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false

I agree that it seem that new plant at Smryna will be producing way under capacity and Nissan will have to repurpose some/all of it unless they're able to really boost demand, open up new markets (esp. outside the US) or we have a huge oil price shock/shortage.

$38K BEFORE incentives in states without tax breaks or incentives is accurate for the SL model ($35.2K MSRP + 8% tax = $38K)
Although you should subtract the value of your trade-in when you calculate the full value of your new car.

The Nissan Leaf is a mid-priced mass produced car, not a Novelty car. Anyways the more novel a car the higher its price!

 

[evnow]

In that interview Ghosn says these things:

Strong Yen is keeping US LEAF sales down - Nissan is holding back cars because of it.
In August battery production will start in Smyrma.
LEAF production will start by the end of the year.
In September Nissan will switch to a US cost basis and the price of the LEAF will go down which dramatically changes Nissan's cost basis for the LEAF.
Expect to see sales up dramatically starting in September as a result.

Essentially what Ghosn is saying is that Nissan is not interested in increasing the Leaf sales before Smyrna goes online. They have allocated some 600 Leafs to Nissan dealers and they will deliver them. Thats about it.

After September Leaf will be available on the dealer lots and Nissan will aggressively push the sales. I also expect them to spend more money & energy on QC.

 

[mkjayakumar]

By that time they would have lost the market leadership (whatever they had) in this segment to Volt and PiPH