July Plugin Sales : Leaf 395, Volt 1849, PIP 688, FFE 38

[mkjayakumar]

To Train and others:

When average Joe wants to buy a car and looks at the Leaf two thoughts come to his mind:

- Will the short range put me in real trouble to make this car useless ?
- Are the gas savings substantial enough for me to buy this car ?

Obviously at some point one emotion will triumph over the other. If they sit and actually do the match and figure out that they indeed are doing a lot of local driving within Leaf's range and an occasional driving that needs an ICE car, they will understand the savings are substantial and Leaf is worth the trouble and premium.

When gas hits $4 and above, this same folks will come around and say, the short range is really not a problem for them and they can easily work around that with their old clunker, as long they can save $250 or more per month.

 

[evnow]

The Nissan Leaf is the market leader in the Electric Car segment.

That's absolutely true, which raises the question of what these low numbers mean for the segment.

Not much if we take Ghosn at face value - that sales are low because of supply constraint & high Yen. Considering that we have heard multiple Nissan dealers here say the allocation is very low, I'd like to know why we shouldn't take Ghosn at face value - if you think we shouldn't.

I think after the tsunami - Nissan factory has not been able to completely recover and produce 4K cars per month as was planned. they continue to produce about 2k cars per month. That is a very small number for the whole world.

 

[lpickup]

I think after the tsunami - Nissan factory has not been able to completely recover and produce 4K cars per month as was planned. they continue to produce about 2k cars per month.

Do you have a source for this? It's not that I don't believe you, but I'd like to add that to my "arsenal" of facts and I'm sure I'd be asked for a source.

 

[scottf200]

EVNow, looks like all the numbers are in so you can update the charts...

EVNow, et. al,

Cool summary/table site of USA and Canada sales someone found at gm-volt.com ( http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?12596-Good-web-page-showing-Volt-sales-including-Canada" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; )

chevrolet-volt-sales-figures - http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/chevrolet-volt-sales-figures.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
nissan-leaf-sales-figures - http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/nissan-leaf-sales-figures.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
mitsubishi-i-miev-sales-figures - http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/mitsubishi-i-miev-sales-figures.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[AndyH]

I made a new chart, a little easier to read if wanting to compare monthly sales between vehicles.

Rising fuel prices raising 'all ships'?

The Japanese automaker sold 28,711 Prius hybrids in March, the all-time U.S. monthly record since introducing the model stateside in 2000

http://green.autoblog.com/2012/04/0...surge-54-from-a-year-earlier-to-monthly-reco/
(back to the chart...)
Considering that launch, I wonder when the PIP will leave other plug-ins in the dust? :shock:

 

[JPWhite]

If Nissan was smart they'd get their arse over here and install Quick Chargers at all of their dealers.

Amen!!

 

[SanDust]

Not much if we take Ghosn at face value

Taking Ghosn at face value strained credulity. What he said made no sense whatsoever. The part about not pushing sales when the cost of the cars was OK, but you can't sell 600 or 700 units a month until October and end the year selling 20,000 units.

His remarks are now being "clarified". Basically you can forget what he said. We may see higher sales during the but not over 2000 units a month. Best case maybe we'll see 20, 000 units by next March.

Akerson from GM says the Volt will "soon" hit 3000 units a month. These guys should be a sock in it. It's a brave new world and they are completely clueless. Pretending otherwise just makes it worse.

 

[evnow]

I think after the tsunami - Nissan factory has not been able to completely recover and produce 4K cars per month as was planned. they continue to produce about 2k cars per month.

Do you have a source for this? It's not that I don't believe you, but I'd like to add that to my "arsenal" of facts and I'm sure I'd be asked for a source.

See 1st page for US+JPN sales. Nissan has been selling a few hundred ROW.

 

[evnow]

Not much if we take Ghosn at face value

Taking Ghosn at face value strained credulity. What he said made no sense whatsoever. The part about not pushing sales when the cost of the cars was OK, but you can't sell 600 or 700 units a month until October and end the year selling 20,000 units.

It strains credulity only if you are biased. He essentially listed 2 reasons for low sales - supply is limited and Yen is high. Given these constraints, there is no reason to try to amp up sales until Septemeber (i.e. when Smyrna comes online). Makes perfect sense and definitely doesn't dtrain credulity.

BTW, remember Ghosn sometimes talks in fiscal years sometimes in calendar (and also he isn't an original English speaker).

 

[adric22]

BTW, remember Ghosn sometimes talks in fiscal years sometimes in calendar (and also he isn't an original English speaker).

Its also worth mentioning. Every since the incident with the Osburn computer, most business know to avoid giving too many secrets about an upcoming product, especially if the price is going to drop. It would kill sales of the existing product. Even though Nissan may be losing money on the existing product, at least in the USA. It would look very bad if Leaf sales just dropped like a rock. People would assume there was no market for the car, rather than realizing people were holding off until September to get a cheaper, better car.

 

[Train]

Not that your other reasons don't have any merit. Yes, it's an expensive car (at least up-front cost-wise). Yes, it would be nice to have longer range. Yes, not everyone is going to be able to take advantage of the tax credit, or at least have to wait for it (there are leasing alternatives though that nicely get around this). Yes, the EVSE expense appears to be a significant cost adder (although again, there are far less expensive alternatives--it's too bad Nissan doesn't make people more aware of these, but they are probably contractually bound to only push AV). I think you're taking liberties with your battery argument, but yes, the unknown of the battery lifetime and replacement cost is an issue. And yes, these issues, if not addressed (and I think every one of them will be addressed in the near to 5-years from now future) will certainly limit demand to an extent. But I think I feel that the extent is far less than what you're thinking.

Time will tell. Technology development and advancement with BEV's is going to be incremental and not dramatic so unless there's a huge price attached (Tesla), range ad long charging times will be issues. I'm thinking that the public perception of a "quick charger" and an EV enthusiast differ greatly. Most people will not consider a 20-30 minute wait for their car to charge "fast."

No matter how many charge stations you install, if EV's are to sell in the numbers that will make any market difference, then it will be a guessing game whether or not that charge station will be occupied. Then frustration will set it.

The mother with two kids in the car that are standing two deep behind other EV's for an hour because she wanted to run a couple extra errands or visit a friend will tell quite a different story about EV's. People can plan all they want but stuff happens. Every day. Taking four minutes to fill up because you had a lot of things to do is no big deal to the petrol motoring public. Taking an hour or so to do the same thing in a BEV (if waiting behind someone) will be a big deal.

BEV's excel at what they do for urban commuting. But again, for the price and as the NYT article points out, it's not financially sound for the limited mission of the Leaf in its current (pun intended) form.

 

[SanDust]

It strains credulity only if you are biased. He essentially listed 2 reasons for low sales - supply is limited and Yen is high.

Sales are slow because the yen is strong? Did you know or care what the yen/dollar exchange rate was when you got the car? When you ordered it? Probably not. The truth is that the strength of the yen is irrelevant to demand in NA. People care about the price of a car not how much it costs a manufacturer to make it. Now it might matter if the strong yen made the Leaf more costly, and that the price would drop when production moved to the US, but he explicitly ruled out that type of price cut. So you can move this idea from the "strains credulity" pile to the "ridiculous" pile.

On the other hand, a limited supply could result in lower sales. After all you can't sell what you don't have. However there is no evidence that this is happening. There aren't a lot of posts from people complaining that they can't get a car, which is what we saw last year when supply was truly constrained. Even Paul Scott has said that "things have been quiet", which is basically another way of saying there hasn't been much interest. So this claim has to stay in the "strains credulity" pile.

 

[DrInnovation]

It strains credulity only if you are biased. He essentially listed 2 reasons for low sales - supply is limited and Yen is high.

Sales are slow because the yen is strong? Did you know or care what the yen/dollar exchange rate was when you got the car? When you ordered it? Probably not. The truth is that the strength of the yen is irrelevant to demand in NA. People care about the price of a car not how much it costs a manufacturer to make it. Now it might matter if the strong yen made the Leaf more costly, and that the price would drop when production moved to the US, but he explicitly ruled out that type of price cut. So you can move this idea from the "strains credulity" pile to the "ridiculous" pile.

On the other hand, a limited supply could result in lower sales. After all you can't sell what you don't have. However there is no evidence that this is happening. There aren't a lot of posts from people complaining that they can't get a car, which is what we saw last year when supply was truly constrained. Even Paul Scott has said that "things have been quiet", which is basically another way of saying there hasn't been much interest. So this claim has to stay in the "strains credulity" pile.

There is a deeper point in here.. if its based on the Yen/Dollar differences it does not really matter much where they are made. If the Yen is high then it is possible they might reduce their production costs with a US plant. But even so, if its if they are lower costs but Yen/Dollar is still imbalanced, then they can still sell the US made ones in Japan for higher profits. The only real savings/difference in the shift is shipping costs; the Yen/Dollar rate only effects where they can make more money because their agreed on pricing to the dealer is effectively worth more.

The Yen/Dollar can easily effect the supply and timing, as it can impact where they choose to allocate cars and how quickly they push more out. People may not be complaining because that does not help.. if they wait is too long, just may just buy something else. When I decided to buy my Volt, I went from test drive to owner in 2 weeks.. but I had to drive 900 miles to do get what I wanted. Only the truly committed would wait or drive a long way.

 

[SanDust]

The whole notion of Ghosn meaning that Nissan would sell 20,000 in "fiscal 2012" when he said "calendar 2012" has now been rejected by ... Nissan. http://green.autoblog.com/2012/04/07/nissan-marketing-strategist-misspeaks-leaf-unlikely-to-hit-20/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ("We have not changed our commitment to sell 20,000 LEAF's in calendar year 2012. It was Brendan Jones who said fiscal year but we corrected that point as he misspoke. Domenick says in the post that we've changed the target to fiscal year '12, which we have not. We will sell 20,000 LEAF's in calendar year 2012.")

Hopefully unit sales will hit 20,000 for the calendar year but a few more months of 579 is going to make it very hard to reach that goal. Still seems better not to be making these goals so explicit. Just opens the door to criticism if they aren't met. Realistically whether Nissan sells 15k or 20K or even 10K Leafs this year won't have a big impact on its long term success.

 

[lpickup]

The mother with two kids in the car that are standing two deep behind other EV's for an hour because she wanted to run a couple extra errands or visit a friend will tell quite a different story about EV's.

I agree with you that waiting 20-30 minutes just to get TO the QC is not going to fly, and even waiting 20-30 minutes for the charge, unless you have something else to do like have lunch or run an errand.

But can you let me know what sequence of events led up to your hypothetical situation? Did she really cart her kids around town 80 miles (doing who knows what) that day and then decide that she wanted to drive out of her way to do some more errands or visit a friend that doesn't have an outlet?

I grant you that a scenario such as the above could happen. I just think it's going to be quite rare and fairly easy to anticipate. 80 miles is really quite far for most people.

 

[tps]

The mother with two kids in the car that are standing two deep behind other EV's for an hour

I don't foresee that situation. What I do foresee is that there will be a large premium on electrons delivered by public QC. Here in Philadelphia, there is already a premium on electrons delivered by L2 public chargers. This will tend to limit frivolous use of public charging. So far, I've only used public charging very occasionally, when I needed it, and I've not charged to full, just putting in what I think I'll need. I can see QC working this way. I can see myself at doing a 5 minute QC just to pick up a little extra juice to make it home.

The main scenario I can see for getting longer charge is if they put in QC at the turnpike service plazas. With my current driving habits, I very seldom make those kind of trips. I would see such a trip in the LEAF as an adventure. Who knows, I might try to figure out how what I would have to do to make the trip in the LEAF from Philly to Cincinnati to visit my family. At L2, this would likely involve over 50 hours of charging each way, definitely an adventure! It would be less boring that the 10 hour straight-through drive on the freeway, for sure.

 

[GRA]

The mother with two kids in the car that are standing two deep behind other EV's for an hour

I don't foresee that situation. What I do foresee is that there will be a large premium on electrons delivered by public QC. Here in Philadelphia, there is already a premium on electrons delivered by L2 public chargers. This will tend to limit frivolous use of public charging. So far, I've only used public charging very occasionally, when I needed it, and I've not charged to full, just putting in what I think I'll need. I can see QC working this way. I can see myself at doing a 5 minute QC just to pick up a little extra juice to make it home.

The main scenario I can see for getting longer charge is if they put in QC at the turnpike service plazas. With my current driving habits, I very seldom make those kind of trips. I would see such a trip in the LEAF as an adventure. Who knows, I might try to figure out how what I would have to do to make the trip in the LEAF from Philly to Cincinnati to visit my family. At L2, this would likely involve over 50 hours of charging each way, definitely an adventure! It would be less boring that the 10 hour straight-through drive on the freeway, for sure.

Uh huh, and provided the trip was more interesting than spending time with your relatives and you had enough time to do so, that would be fine. But most people wouldn't consider that an efficient use of their time when they make a trip to SEE their relatives, not to tour the countryside with the relatives being a minor part. Most of us don't have the time to mosey.

 

[TomT]

Except that, if you are paying a fixed fee to use the QC, you are likely going to want to do a full charge to maximize your ROI...

I can see QC working this way. I can see myself at doing a 5 minute QC just to pick up a little extra juice to make it home.

 

[tps]

Except that, if you are paying a fixed fee to use the QC, you are likely going to want to do a full charge to maximize your ROI...

I can see QC working this way. I can see myself at doing a 5 minute QC just to pick up a little extra juice to make it home.

Who said anything about fixed fee. Do most people pay a fixed fee at the gas pump?

 

[tps]

But most people wouldn't consider that an efficient use of their time they make a trip to SEE their relatives, not to tour the countryside with the relatives being a minor part.

Which is why I usually take the airplane, instead. I'm not advocating doing the trip in the LEAF more than once. Yes, it would take longer and cost more, but for just one time it could be about the voyage, not just about the destination. Just once, it might be interesting to tour the countryside.
Everything in life is not about efficiency.