LTLFTcomposite said:
These are all good arguments but they are lost on the average Joe in the showroom looking at a car that costs $10k more who is not as analytical as people here.
Yes, and that is perhaps Train's argument.
But still, I think that line of reasoning is based on excessive exaggeration and extrapolation, cherry-picking data, and stereotyping the average Joe as the hard and fast naysayer. That has certainly not been my experience in talking with people in real life. Most have been interested and while they do ask the usual questions: how much does it cost? how far can it go? how long does it take to charge? they at least continue to be interested (or at least pretend to).
Take for example one of Train's statements which seems typical of his points:
Train said:
You're assuming everyone will qualify for the full $7500 tax credit, they will not. Add $2000 for installation of a 220. Add the tax, add destination, you're right back up the MSRP. In five years, how much will the the battery degrade in the Leaf? 20 miles worth? 30 miles worth?
First he starts with the most expensive trim and adds $750 to the cost just for the heck of it. $38000-$7500 = $30500. Add $2000 for installation of L2 EVSE. Admittedly I don't have data here, but that definitely seems like it's on the high side, even for AV units. But fine, let's say Nissan advertises that as a typical cost. $32500. Destination: $850 (?) $33350. Tax? That's going to vary quite a bit state by state. Let's go with 8% though. That's $2668, for a total of $36018, or almost $2000 below the originally stated $38000. That's the naysayers way of thinking though, keep rounding the bad stuff up and the good stuff down. Plus I'm not sure why the average Joe would think that a gas car was exempt from all these fees. The only one in there that is truly extra is the EVSE cost.
Okay, so the other part of that statement was 5 year battery degradation. Again, the hint of truth in there is the 20-30 miles worth of degradation. Yes, there will be degradation. But the generally accepted estimate is 70% (30 miles) after 8 years / 100K miles, not 5 years. I'll grant you that battery longevity was one of my biggest concerns, but after learning of the length of the warranty period I was sold right away. So I doubt that is getting in the way of an educated buyer.
I could go on with many of the rest of Train's points and refute or at least expose the exaggerations, but maybe that's not his point. Maybe his point is, as LTLFT said, is that the general impression of those things are causing a lack of demand, vs. a supply shortage. And that's where the cherry picking comes into play. If that's true, then why did Volt sales rebound so dramatically in March? I know that it's not apples to apples, but if the focus of the average buyer is so much on cost (I think the example given was a $19K Prius C hybrid?) and batteries, then why in the world are people paying MORE than the cost of a LEAF for the Volt? And why don't we see any LEAFs on dealer lots in many areas?
Sorry, I'm not buying the lack of demand argument. I do agree that there are a LOT of people for which the LEAF is definitely not an appropriate vehicle choice. I also agree that there are a LOT of people that haven't done their homework to actually research the issues they are worried about (cost, range, charging time, etc.) But that's fine because I think even if you take those people away there are still enough left over worldwide to soak up the current production capacity of Nissan.
And this is besides the point, but once THOSE people start getting them and illustrating their value and refuting the limitations, and start selling them to all the people that will never buy a new car, then demand for EVs will grow.