I don't really understand Nissan's Strategy

[mbender]

I'm no "business guy", but aren't there professionals who get paid good coin to estimate (i.e., speculate on) the size of undetermined markets? Plus, even when a product is available, the question may be far from settled. e.g., what is the market size for Tesla's Model S?

Sorry, just in a contrarian mood I guess. I happen to think Tesla may find itself production-constrained on the Model 3 as well, but that's as much wishful thinking as an educated guess.

 

[TomHuffman]

Ford doesn't invest in gas stations, news at 11. The better question is why Tesla chooses to invest in their network?

Chademo is not an acceptable long term solution, it is far too slow for interstate travel, and a 150 mile electric fleet will make it mostly useless for most in-town travel. Only those who drive 100+ miles a daily will visit them regularly, and for them it will be a frustratingly slow charge time. Someone doing that much driving everyday will quickly tire of sitting at the charger for close to an hour everyday. So far the installations are just one or two at a spot making it likely someone else will be there when you arrive, and that you will be screwed if it is broken. Chademo is a flawed system that has been half heartedly rolled out. It will only fill a small gap of folks who want to take regional trips, or for the few adventurers who won't mind spending a third of their interstate travel day waiting at the charger.

Level 2 will cease to make sense even in-town once we have longer range car except at work, home, or at travel destinations such as hotels. Work charging will become less necessary and less attractive to employers as range increases as well. Interstate hotels are one the the few places I can see Level 2 stations being added in great numbers, a place they don't make sense at today but will in the future.

Tesla's system nails the important points for a good system. The stations have many stalls, making it unlikely you will have to wait a long time. The charge rate is fast enough that a long trip will have less than 20% of your time wasted at the charging station. Lastly, the cars themselves let you drive for a couple hours on the freeway between charge stops.

So Tesla has it right, but why do they bother? It looks to me like they are a premium brand that needs to stick out from the pack. Their 85 kWh battery option would actually be pretty stupid without a good infrastructure to allow interstate travel. 80-100 miles is plenty for most commuting, so the primary need for anything much bigger than 100 miles road trip capability. So Tesla couldn't reasonably do a big pack without also rolling out a charging network, and being a premium brand it had to be better than Chademo (what a stupid name, right up there with EVSE for awfulness).

Today's Nissan Leaf is a good little commuter car, but to roll out a bunch of Chademo stations would only address a vocal minority who commute long distances or who are trying to be a Leaf only house without wanting to rent a gasser for occasional longer trips. For the vast majority home Level 2 charging, and maybe work charging is plenty. A double range Leaf will probably still not make it a decent interstate car, and it will make it even more likely that people will do virtually ALL of their charging at home where it is cheapest.

Gosh, I think that this post is wrong and wrong-headed for several reasons.
1. You ask why Tesla bothers to create a Supercharger network, and then you answer your own question. "Their 85 kWh battery option would actually be pretty stupid without a good infrastructure to allow interstate travel."
2. You state that CHAdeMO chargers are "far too slow for interstate travel". You should be able to get an additional 120 miles of range (or 80% charge, whichever comes first) in 40 minutes. Interstate travel rarely involves more than 500 miles a day. Charging along the way would add an additional 2 hrs. or so to the travel time. However, this has to be balanced by the substantially lowered cost of EV travel. I would certainly be willing to add an extra 4 hours to a 1000-mile trip if it meant I could travel at 1/4 the cost of gasoline.
3. You state that a 150-mile car makes CHAdeMO chargers pointless. This is not true. It opens up a HUGE commuter market for those who do not have garages in which they can charge. One trip a week to a local CHAdeMO charger (maybe 2 trips on heavy weeks) is all a commuter would need.
4. Finally, my argument should not be construed as a brief for CHAdeMO. If another quick charging solution is better, then by all means use it.

Essentially, you are only insisting that the Leaf remain limited as a niche commuting city car. That's a recipe for failure.

 

[TomHuffman]

I really understand Nissan's Strategy, as of today there are 5689 new Leaf in dealers inventory which is 3 to 4 months supply (cars.com). To me it seems that there is not much interest in buying Leaf even with nice discounts offered by Nissan. I really doubt that additional 400 CHAdeMO chargers will dramatically increase appetite for Leaf by general public. Nissan never advertised or expected that Leaf will be used as long distance car and in fact required home evse installation before purchase. At the end of 2014 Tesla stated that in 2015 will have capacity to produce 100K cars, this was reduced to 55K delivered cars, this combined with reduced wait from order to delivery may suggest that appetite for luxury BEV is fulfilling. The real question is what to do to increase adoption of EV because Nissan and Tesla strategy is to make money.

The 400 CHAdeMO chargers are only necessary when the longer-range Leaf becomes available. As I have already pointed out, a car with an 80-mile range is not a practical all-around vehicle regardless of the charging infrastructure. However, once you have a 150-200 mile BEV then quick charging along the Interstate highway system becomes an absolute necessity for long-range travel and local quick chargers provide a charging option for apartment dwellers. It's the longer range BEV that is the game changer.

I am not surprised that a car with 80 miles of range has not been a roaring success.

 

[jhm614]

The 400 CHAdeMO chargers are only necessary when the longer-range Leaf becomes available. As I have already pointed out, a car with an 80-mile range is not a practical all-around vehicle regardless of the charging infrastructure. However, once you have a 150-200 mile BEV then quick charging along the Interstate highway system becomes an absolute necessity for long-range travel and local quick chargers provide a charging option for apartment dwellers. It's the longer range BEV that is the game changer.

I am not surprised that a car with 80 miles of range has not been a roaring success.

Still, the Leaf with it's 80 mile range is both the US's best selling EV and the world's best selling EV. And I'm not positive that longer range BEV is the game changer. Perhaps Nissan could double their sales by just by doubling the range?

 

[EdmondLeaf]

The 400 CHAdeMO chargers are only necessary when the longer-range Leaf becomes available. As I have already pointed out, a car with an 80-mile range is not a practical all-around vehicle regardless of the charging infrastructure. However, once you have a 150-200 mile BEV then quick charging along the Interstate highway system becomes an absolute necessity for long-range travel and local quick chargers provide a charging option for apartment dwellers. It's the longer range BEV that is the game changer.
I am not surprised that a car with 80 miles of range has not been a roaring success.

In all, 55 percent of hybrid and electric vehicle owners are defecting to a gasoline-only model at trade-in time — the lowest level of hybrid loyalty since Edmunds.com began tracking such transactions in 2011. More than one in five are switching to a conventional sport utility vehicle, nearly double the rate of three years ago.
That one-and-done syndrome coincides with tumbling sales of electric and hybrid vehicles. Through April, sales of electrified models slid to 2.7 percent of the market, down from 3.4 percent over the same period last year, Edmunds.com said. At the same time, sport utility vehicles grabbed 34.4 percent of sales, up from 31.6 percent.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/15/a...a-worry-buyers-pass-hybrids-cars-by.html?_r=1
As I said before I do a lot of long range trips, and personally will not stop for fuel if possible so I use my 600 mile range car for my trips with 200 car for local trips. Just few days ago Tesla S was doing less than 60 on the highway, to me that is dangerously slow speed. Going with that speed you really have to watch your back. Charging Tesla S to 100% at SC takes about 2 h. I wonder if this is your idea of long distance travel, stopping for 2 h every 150 - 200 miles. To me car with 150-200 mile range is still local car but without range anxiety. Nissan strategy is to make money, it does not make sense to invest money in infrastructure with declining sales.

 

[Zythryn]

In all, 55 percent of hybrid and electric vehicle owners are defecting to a gasoline-only model at trade-in time — the lowest level of hybrid loyalty since Edmunds.com began tracking such transactions in 2011. More than one in five are switching to a conventional sport utility vehicle, nearly double the rate of three years ago.
That one-and-done syndrome coincides with tumbling sales of electric and hybrid vehicles. Through April, sales of electrified models slid to 2.7 percent of the market, down from 3.4 percent over the same period last year, Edmunds.com said. At the same time, sport utility vehicles grabbed 34.4 percent of sales, up from 31.6 percent.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/15/a...a-worry-buyers-pass-hybrids-cars-by.html?_r=1

Which tells us nothing about the electric loyalty rate.
That is like saying 1 Million people a year die of heart attacks and lightning strikes, and then conclude that a lightning strike deaths are common.
All the surveys I have seen that are limited to EV owners is that EVs enjoy a very, very high loyalty rate.

As I said before I do a lot of long range trips, and personally will not stop for fuel if possible so I use my 600 mile range car for my trips with 200 car for local trips. Just few days ago Tesla S was doing less than 60 on the highway, to me that is dangerously slow speed. Going with that speed you really have to watch your back. Charging Tesla S to 100% at SC takes about 2 h. I wonder if this is your idea of long distance travel, stopping for 2 h every 150 - 200 miles. To me car with 150-200 mile range is still local car but without range anxiety. Nissan strategy is to make money, it does not make sense to invest money in infrastructure with declining sales.

i can gaurentee you not all Teslas drive under the speed limit. Taking an example of a single driver and drawing conclusions for all EVs is very poorly formed position.
Two, where in the world did you get 2 hours for a full charge?
On our 5000 mile trip to California and back we stopped every 2-3 hours for 30-40 minutes.
It was the most enjoyable road trip I ever took and the reason I am making more road trips than I used to when I drove on Dino juice.

 

[mjblazin]

It may be the real trend is toward mid-size SUVs, not necessarily away from electric. Until BEVs can truly be a mid sized SUV (we will see what Tesla has and at what price), it may be the dominant trend. We keep an image of Millennials as 22 years old. Many of them are 35 and entering middle age at a rapid rate. They own homes, have families, work in middle management and are moving to top management. As much as they protest the idea, they have become and will continue to become us.

I think a 100 miles range SUV would do as much for demand as a super charging network.

 

[Nubo]

Still, the Leaf with it's 80 mile range is both the US's best selling EV and the world's best selling EV. And I'm not positive that longer range BEV is the game changer. Perhaps Nissan could double their sales by just by doubling the range?

At the same price point, a true doubling of the range would probably increase sale by far more than double.

 

[TomT]

Assuming a constant price, I suspect sales, up to a certain point, is going to grow exponentially... Double the range from 100 to 200 real-world miles, and you quadruple the sales...

At the same price point, a true doubling of the range would probably increase sale by far more than double.

 

[eloder]

The 400 CHAdeMO chargers are only necessary when the longer-range Leaf becomes available. As I have already pointed out, a car with an 80-mile range is not a practical all-around vehicle regardless of the charging infrastructure. However, once you have a 150-200 mile BEV then quick charging along the Interstate highway system becomes an absolute necessity for long-range travel and local quick chargers provide a charging option for apartment dwellers. It's the longer range BEV that is the game changer.

I am not surprised that a car with 80 miles of range has not been a roaring success.

Still, the Leaf with it's 80 mile range is both the US's best selling EV and the world's best selling EV. And I'm not positive that longer range BEV is the game changer. Perhaps Nissan could double their sales by just by doubling the range?

I'm sure if a Spark EV or Soul EV were available nationwide, Leafs would be a fraction of what they sell today.

Tesla has been outselling the Leaf in 2015 in the US which is like saying a Porsche is outselling a Honda Civic due to the tremendous difference in post-rebate costs.

The biggest reason a 150 mile BEV will make a big impact is for us in cold states, who have our 70-80 mile EVs turn into 30-40 mile range EVs. A 150 mile range at decent prices will easily make for a very strong selling car, given a bit of public education. Low-range BEVs will still have a great niche as eventually being much cheaper than gas cars for superior performance and little to no fuel costs.

Another big reason that Tesla's strategy is the best is that Chademo will not play well at all with next-gen EVs. Teslas charge 180 miles in the time it takes a Leaf to charge 50 miles right now. Even with a proper Chademo network, I don't think people will be willing to take very long road trips with an hour of charging every 1.5 hours of driving. Bigger battery (past cold weather performance) doesn't mean anything if your charging standards aren't up to the task.

 

[epirali]

The 400 CHAdeMO chargers are only necessary when the longer-range Leaf becomes available. As I have already pointed out, a car with an 80-mile range is not a practical all-around vehicle regardless of the charging infrastructure. However, once you have a 150-200 mile BEV then quick charging along the Interstate highway system becomes an absolute necessity for long-range travel and local quick chargers provide a charging option for apartment dwellers. It's the longer range BEV that is the game changer.

I am not surprised that a car with 80 miles of range has not been a roaring success.

Still, the Leaf with it's 80 mile range is both the US's best selling EV and the world's best selling EV. And I'm not positive that longer range BEV is the game changer. Perhaps Nissan could double their sales by just by doubling the range?

I'm sure if a Spark EV or Soul EV were available nationwide, Leafs would be a fraction of what they sell today.

Tesla has been outselling the Leaf in 2015 in the US which is like saying a Porsche is outselling a Honda Civic due to the tremendous difference in post-rebate costs.

The biggest reason a 150 mile BEV will make a big impact is for us in cold states, who have our 70-80 mile EVs turn into 30-40 mile range EVs. A 150 mile range at decent prices will easily make for a very strong selling car, given a bit of public education. Low-range BEVs will still have a great niche as eventually being much cheaper than gas cars for superior performance and little to no fuel costs.

Another big reason that Tesla's strategy is the best is that Chademo will not play well at all with next-gen EVs. Teslas charge 180 miles in the time it takes a Leaf to charge 50 miles right now. Even with a proper Chademo network, I don't think people will be willing to take very long road trips with an hour of charging every 1.5 hours of driving. Bigger battery (past cold weather performance) doesn't mean anything if your charging standards aren't up to the task.

I think you have to factor in that a good portion of the Tesla sales right now is "status" not function. The Leaf does not have that. But no doubt some of it is the range and potential for faster charging (I say potential because the discussion ignores Tesla superchargers are not as ubiquitous as reading here would make it seem).

 

[desiv]

I think you have to factor in that a good portion of the Tesla sales right now is "status" not function. The Leaf does not have that..

I'd disagree there..
Not about Tesla and status, but about the Leaf not having that as well..
I think a certain percentage of people did buy their Leafs as a "badge of honor". Look at me, I'm driving an EV!

You wouldn't say that people don't buy the Apple watch for "status" just because it's not as expensive as a Rolex. ;-)

But in the same way, Rolex owners are probably laughing quietly at the Apple Watch owners..
And they'd block the Apple Watch charging stations if they could!!!! er.. um.. sorry..

desiv

 

[edatoakrun]

...I'm sure if a Spark EV or Soul EV were available nationwide, Leafs would be a fraction of what they sell today...

You can believe whatever you want, but evidence suggests otherwise.

Despite the frequent comments from some who post on BEV forums, range doesn't seem to mean very much in the lower priced mass-market BEV market.

In this market, BEV sales are extremely price sensitive.

When Fiat offered bargain deals in March, 500E sales spiked.

In April, GM cut lease rates to ~$75 a month (for California Lessees, less state rebate) on the Spark (which has a shorter EPA range than the LEAF) and sales increased ~500%.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Soul EV, which does have a slightly larger battery and longer range than the LEAF?

Grand total of 73 sold last month, and Kia dealers apparently needed to cut prices to sell those few.

http://www.mykiasoulev.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=246&start=10" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[TomT]

I think that may have been true to some extent when the Leaf first came out but I don't believe that it is generally true today.

I think a certain percentage of people did buy their Leafs as a "badge of honor". Look at me, I'm driving an EV!

 

[EdmondLeaf]

In this market, BEV sales are extremely price sensitive.

and not only there is sizable discussion on TMCF if one need high performance P85D or S85 is good enough with many suggesting that even S70D is adequate. Tesla better hurry up with mass market car and better deliver with competitive to others price.

 

[desiv]

I think that may have been true to some extent when the Leaf first came out but I don't believe that it is generally true today.

I think a certain percentage of people did buy their Leafs as a "badge of honor". Look at me, I'm driving an EV!

I don't know that it was ever generally true.. Just that it happened, and I'd bet it still does. Human nature.. ;-)

desiv

 

[eloder]

You can believe whatever you want, but evidence suggests otherwise.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Spark's sales in two states was nearly half of the Leaf sales since the MSPR was lowered in April. I was referring to current sales, not total sales.

This forum seems to forget it often, but only a small fraction of the US population lives in California. While it's a big EV hotbed, ignoring Hawaii, Georgia, New England, and metro Texan markets are huge potential markets that don't have access to the Spark EV now.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

I think that may have been true to some extent when the Leaf first came out but I don't believe that it is generally true today.

I think a certain percentage of people did buy their Leafs as a "badge of honor". Look at me, I'm driving an EV!

I don't know that it was ever generally true.. Just that it happened, and I'd bet it still does. Human nature.. ;-)

desiv

Maybe still true for some that bought other EV brand. This was answer from guy selling Tesla P85D.

I have a suggestion. How about you educate yourself about cars before asking stupid questions and stop harassing people about cars you will NEVER be able to afford.

 

[epirali]

Maybe still true for some that bought other EV brand. This was answer from guy selling Tesla P85D.

I have a suggestion. How about you educate yourself about cars before asking stupid questions and stop harassing people about cars you will NEVER be able to afford.

Sorry I am having a bad brain day, having trouble parsing this. What was this a response to?

 

[EdmondLeaf]

Maybe still true for some that bought other EV brand. This was answer from guy selling Tesla P85D.

I have a suggestion. How about you educate yourself about cars before asking stupid questions and stop harassing people about cars you will NEVER be able to afford.

Sorry I am having a bad brain day, having trouble parsing this. What was this a response to?

Car was listed as new I ask him if that was with MCO or regular title - for fed tax purpose. I treated this as a "badge I own this"