DNAinaGoodWay said:
TonyWilliams said:
Nissan doesn't think hydrogen is a possibility for 25-50 years. Even Toyota says H2 cars aren't competitive with EV cars until "2030"
Definately a long term strategy. However long it takes, BEV and FCEV, the process is well under way. Fifty more years isn't very long. In the short run, BEVs have a head start and can expand infrastructure faster and more extensively. With better range they're sure to gain a better market position.
The real problem is that the majority are perfectly happy driving ICEVs, no matter what type of EV is available.
Yes, they are, which is why neither EV nor H2 cars are real competitors to petroleum powered ones. Yes, Tesla has grabbed substantial share in a few very tiny markets, and Nissan has certainly scratched the surface of the larger market. But, with few other auto manufacturers really into EV or H2, I think it will take another 5-15 years before those "other guys" take either seriously.
That basic premise of infrastructure is so key to the whole game, which is where H2 really doesn't have much of a chance,
unless large corporations like Toyota and world governments are going to fund that infrustructure. Then, the price of petroleum has to exceed the price of H2, which isn't going to happen any time soon (or again, Toyota, et al, "give H2 away").
With all the other issues facing H2, the above is "prima facia". It doesn't matter
if H2 is worse for the environment that EV, or
more dangerous, or
low on performance (well, anything is compared to a Tesla P85D... Electric Vehicle... available today), or
can't economically refuel at home, etc, if there's no place to get the H2 "fuel" or if it costs more than petroleum...
HUGE FAIL.
So, even in the BEST scenario in the USA, when do I drive an H2 car anywhere I want to go in the USA? Probably not in my lifetime, but I can do that today with any EV (it just won't be pretty today).
Electricity is ubiquitous around the world... H2 might not reach 3rd world countries at all in my lifetime. And the terrorist are going to
LOVE H2 CARS !!!
But, in the end, H2 ends up "competing" against EV. Not really for market share, because
I think even Andy recognizes that there will be
ONE MILLION or more EV's driving around by 2020-2025 and maybe tens of thousands of H2 cars. H2 competes against EV's for government support (both rule making and financial).