Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

[derkraut]

Yo Tony W. : I think AndyH has been smoking something funny?? :lol: :lol:

 

[TonyWilliams]

Yo Tony W. : I think AndyH has been smoking something funny?? :lol: :lol:

Well, I think we are actually on the same team as to the end game, but the myopic method to get there is a bit tiresome.

Hydrogen exists as a vehicle transport fuel PURELY on government support, and R&D of companies like Toyota, Hyundai, Honda, et al. I actually know a guy who runs one of the 9 (well, now there are 10) California H2 stations. I know what he claims it costs even if they don't sell a SINGLE kg of H2. Millions of dollars.

When we step back, the singular issue to be resolved is refueling time. Battery swapping can certainly match H2 time, as can Superchargers mitigate the actual time to refuel.

It's not cost. Hydrogen cars (unsubsidized) cost way more than a comparable range EV.

It's not range. EV's can already go 265 EPA miles, just like a Hyundai Tucson H2 car.

It's not the environment, because we already know that H2 cars can actually be dirtier to the environment than a gasoline car.

It's not the price of the energy, because H2 is perhaps 1,000% more expensive than electricity to power a car.

It's not safety, as anybody with ANY simple sense knows that 10,000psi tank in cars will blow up eventually in a way that batteries can only dream of. That tank doesn't even need H2 in it to crater a roadway.

It's always "pie-in-the-sky" H2, and the pie doesn't extend the same way to EV's in some folk's minds.

Anyway, we just repeat ourselves a lot. Apparently, somebody wrote a book about H2 that is foolproof, so perhaps I'll never become as enlightened as Andy unless I read "it".

In the meantime, there is nothing on the horizon to stop EV's; not even cheap gasoline!!! Wait until the next cycle of expensive gasoline; heck, gasoline may get as expensive as H2 !!!

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

But, in the end, H2 ends up "competing" against EV. Not really for market share, because I think even Andy recognizes that there will be ONE MILLION or more EV's driving around by 2020-2025 and maybe tens of thousands of H2 cars. H2 competes against EV's for government support (both rule making and financial).

All your other points have validity, but this is the keystone. CARB supports it, Toyota will stick it's neck out, and Governments will assist, but for how long? Some cars will be sold, even at the current price, but will it be enough? I can't see FCEVs getting enough sales initially to make these H2 stations seem justified. How long can stations sit underutilized before taxpayers and investors revolt? Toyota is big, with deep pockets, but it's a hugh gamble even for them if they tried to go it alone, way too many stations would be required, and Toyota's FCEV competitors seem willing to let them be the first to stick their neck out in that way. I haven't heard of Hyundai building any.

Trying to build an infrastructure before there is an affordably priced car to spark a market is doomed to fail. The first attempt will collapse. BEVs will be the beneficiary.

 

[GRA]

Via ievs.com:

BMW To Present Its First-Ever Hydrogen Fuel Cell Drive System At 2015 Detroit Auto Show

http://insideevs.com/bmw-to-present-its-first-ever-hydrogen-fuel-cell-drive-system-at-2015-detroit-auto-show/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This contains some new info, including that this is supposedly a next generation system beyond what's in the Mirai, and will be what's used by both BMW and Toyota by 2020 at the latest.

 

[mbender]

Oh, and for readers who may not know it (yet), Ghosn actually runs three automakers now. Here's a good recent piece (with linked interview) on how he does it: Nissan CEO Explains How He Runs 3 Companies At The Same Time

When did he pick-up Auto Vas!? Thanks for that link. Fluffy piece, but I'm more impressed with Ghosn than I was before.

The piece may be fluffy, but I liked the video of the in-person interview. Boy is he organized and, er, driven! Born in Brazil, educated in Lebanon and Paris, speaks four plus languages (despite being an engineer ;-)) and runs three automakers on three continents. Yes, plenty there to be impressed by. And at the risk of sounding like a fanboi, Musk is more impressive yet (except in the language "department"), given his age, "all in" conviction, and truly innovative/disruptive thinking and building.

[...]If by some freak of time and space the US actually adopted an energy policy, a climate change plan, and uniform vehicle standards, I bet Nissan could have a FCEV on US streets in lock-step with the other automakers.[...]

If by 'light duty' you mean commuter cars, then I'd mostly agree. Even a Model S wouldn't be a viable option if I was still on the road doing trade shows - there's not enough infrastructure, the car doesn't have enough range, and there's no way it could carry my supplies/equipment. Most people doing shows use a truck. I was able to custom-build my display to fit inside a VW Passat wagon - and that gave me 700 mile legs, 5 minute refueling from a fat diesel (but mostly biodiesel) pump, 45 MPG, all the heat I wanted, and freedom to divert from Superior, WI to Mott, SD within minutes of hanging up the cell phone.** Since our light-duty fleet includes the ~45% of working pickup trucks and vans that simply cannot perform their duties if fielded as a BEV, though, we absolutely need additional choices.

If the BEV revolution keeps growing (exponentially) AND one or two major manufacturers adopted the supercharging standard, I think we could easily see 1.) the supercharger network quadruple in density, and 2.) pickup trucks with S-like range being mass-produced, by the end of the decade. We just need a little more synergy and "coopetition" among the top automakers. It could happen, and surely it would (will!) before the freak possibility you mention above happens :-|.

Even without either of our "miracles" happening though, I think we'll see small BEV trucks offered nationwide before FCEV trucks. More than multiple alternatives to petroleum, I'd say that we just need one (that works) to arrive on the scene, soon, and in that bet I'd put my money on BEVs. But hey, different opinions are why they have horse races! (QQ: if BEV pickups that did almost everything that ICE pickups can do now "arrived on the scene", would you keep up the good fight for FCs and their pricey infrastructure?)

NB: from my quick search, the (Tesla) Model S has over 58 cubic feet of cargo space with back seats folded + 5 more in the frunk; meanwhile the Passat Wagon has (only) 56.5 cubic feet, seats down. It may not have the best dimensions for all uses, but the S has a lot of cargo space. And surely the X will have more than the S, just as the e-NV200 will have a lot more than the LEAF.

** Yes - this disqualifies FCEV today as well. This car and biodiesel was as close to carbon neutral as I could get...

I also ran biodiesel (in two "80s Mercedes") years ago, but became convinced that until they can source it from algae or directly from sunlight (Joule Unlimited?), it won't be nearly as good as it is "sold" to be. Even if the biodiesel is strictly made from recycled/used restaurant oil (or I guess 'UFO' in the parlance). So I'm glad to be out of that game. And (presumably), that you are too!

 

[TonyWilliams]

Via ievs.com:

BMW To Present Its First-Ever Hydrogen Fuel Cell Drive System At 2015 Detroit Auto Show

http://insideevs.com/bmw-to-present-its-first-ever-hydrogen-fuel-cell-drive-system-at-2015-detroit-auto-show/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This contains some new info, including that this is supposedly a next generation system beyond what's in the Mirai, and will be what's used by both BMW and Toyota by 2020 at the latest.

If that there 2020 car, I can't wait to see the 2020 Tesla EV's.

 

[GRA]

Via ievs.com:

BMW To Present Its First-Ever Hydrogen Fuel Cell Drive System At 2015 Detroit Auto Show

http://insideevs.com/bmw-to-present-its-first-ever-hydrogen-fuel-cell-drive-system-at-2015-detroit-auto-show/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This contains some new info, including that this is supposedly a next generation system beyond what's in the Mirai, and will be what's used by both BMW and Toyota by 2020 at the latest.

If that there 2020 car, I can't wait to see the 2020 Tesla EV's.

Unfortunately, given Tesla's track record to date of being consistently late bringing their products to market (and doing so at a higher price), it's not entirely impossible that their 2020 car will be the Model 3. I don't believe for a minute that it will arrive in 2017 as was originally claimed (about the same time as the Model X was said to start deliveries at the end of 2013), and given the continuing delays with the Model X I'm beginning to have doubts that the Model 3 will make 2018 either. Love to be proven wrong, though, and at least the Model 3's development won't be delayed by those unnecessary, ridiculously expensive and complicated doors.

 

[AndyH]

Here we are - Audi Quattro plug-in fuel-cell electric sports sedan

http://www.greencarreports.com/news...ell-plug-in-car-unveiled-at-2014-la-auto-show

Start with the 8.8 kWh lithium battery from the company's plug-in gasoline hybrid and replace the ICE with a hydrogen fuel cell. 31 miles of range from the battery, 310 miles of range from the H2 tanks, zero to 60 mph in 7.1 seconds.

Welcome to the future, electrophiles!

 

[AndyH]

If the BEV revolution keeps growing (exponentially)

There's no reason to expect that it won't...

AND one or two major manufacturers adopted the supercharging standard,

I'm not holding my breath for this one...

I think we could easily see 1.) the supercharger network quadruple in density,

Not nearly enough chargers

and 2.) pickup trucks with S-like range being mass-produced, by the end of the decade.

Without a significant improvement in batteries and a parallel price drop for the new tech, this isn't likely to happen. Remember - the capability we need isn't just to have a BEV pickup that can carry itself and a driver 300 miles - it needs to be able to carry a ton of cargo, racks, and toolboxes as well. Even with today's prices, it's less expensive to do that with a fuel cell - and prices for carbon and fuel cells are dropping much faster than batteries and that downward cost trend is expected to continue to accelerate.

(QQ: if BEV pickups that did almost everything that ICE pickups can do now "arrived on the scene", would you keep up the good fight for FCs and their pricey infrastructure?)

Small pickups are irrelevant as already covered briefly above and in more detail up thread. "Almost everything" isn't enough, either. Sorry.

NB: from my quick search, the (Tesla) Model S has over 58 cubic feet of cargo space with back seats folded + 5 more in the frunk; meanwhile the Passat Wagon has (only) 56.5 cubic feet, seats down. It may not have the best dimensions for all uses, but the S has a lot of cargo space. And surely the X will have more than the S, just as the e-NV200 will have a lot more than the LEAF.

** Yes - this disqualifies FCEV today as well. This car and biodiesel was as close to carbon neutral as I could get...

I also ran biodiesel (in two "80s Mercedes") years ago, but became convinced that until they can source it from algae or directly from sunlight (Joule Unlimited?), it won't be nearly as good as it is "sold" to be. Even if the biodiesel is strictly made from recycled/used restaurant oil (or I guess 'UFO' in the parlance). So I'm glad to be out of that game. And (presumably), that you are too!

Since I'm not sure what message those that "sold" biodiesel to you were trying to convey, it's difficult to get into that tangent. Superior lubricity, carbon negative, biodegradeable, locally produced, and renewable were more than enough reasons for me to make and use the fuel. Even though my older Passat had more cargo volume than current vehicles, even a Model S is not capable of doing the job I needed a vehicle to perform, regardless of the frunk, and even if the SC network was an order of magnitude more dense. Frankly, I miss it, and will likely operate a veggie oil diesel before I'm in either a long-range BEV or a FCEV. And since our number one problem on the planet is fossil carbon emissions, that'll be just fine.

 

[TonyWilliams]

But, in the end, H2 ends up "competing" against EV. Not really for market share, because I think even Andy recognizes that there will be ONE MILLION or more EV's driving around by 2020-2025 and maybe tens of thousands of H2 cars. H2 competes against EV's for government support (both rule making and financial).

Trying to build an infrastructure before there is an affordably priced car to spark a market is doomed to fail. The first attempt will collapse. BEVs will be the beneficiary.

I'm convinced that this period, 2015-2025, will be the final nail in the H2 for personal transport coffin. Companies like Hyundai will build 60, or 300, or maybe a few thousand (Toyota, the world's largest manufacturer that reportedly will sell "3000" through 2017).

Nissan alone will sell more EV cars in one month today than the ENTIRE WORLD PRODUCTION OF H2 CARS over the next several years, COMBINED. That simple fact alone will put a serious dent in H2 cars through 2025.

 

[Slow1]

Nissan alone will sell more EV cars in one month today than the ENTIRE WORLD PRODUCTION OF H2 CARS over the next several years, COMBINED. That simple fact alone will put a serious dent in H2 cars through 2025.

Hmm... doesn't that same argument apply to ICE vs BEV vehicles today? I think this is going to be true for ANY new technology, that in itself doesn't doom the new tech, you have to start out low volume as the market doesn't exist yet.

Don't get me wrong - I am doubtful that H2 vehicles will be able to compete in the long term, but the volume of sales over the next 5 years I consider a poor indicator. The greater difficulty in adoption of H2 is convincing "the general public" to embrace them. Cost of fuel is likely to be a major issue for many of this group.

The other is Perceived safety (the whole "the fuel tank can create a crater in the road" issue). All it will take is a single case - and it likely would be dramatic, and I don't think even Elon could talk his way around that PR nightmare! Sure, he could fight off the "car may catch fire from batteries thing" - those concerned will just not buy one, but move that into "one of these things could blast you away even if you aren't the one driving it" territory and you have folks who wouldn't otherwise care one way or another fighting it (all this regardless of actual facts)

 

[RegGuheert]

Cost of fuel is likely to be a major issue for many of this group.

"Can't get the fuel at any price" will be a much bigger issue. It's exactly the same issue that has prevented me from purchasing a CNG vehicle, except with hydrogen the barriers to making the fuel available are much higher.

 

[AndyH]

Trying to build an infrastructure before there is an affordably priced car to spark a market is doomed to fail. The first attempt will collapse. BEVs will be the beneficiary.

We heard it here first: The Tesla Supercharger network is doomed to fail.

 

[AndyH]

Does anyone know of any company anywhere in the world either building or planning an electric (of any stripe) F150 pickup truck replacement?

 

[smkettner]

closest to an electric truck that I know is http://www.viamotors.com
Sorry it is GM not Ford.

 

[TonyWilliams]

[Trying to build an infrastructure before there is an affordably priced car to spark a market is doomed to fail. The first attempt will collapse. BEVs will be the beneficiary.

There are two dominant alternate fuel infrastructures for personal and commercial wheeled transport:


Today, I took this picture behind the Mirage casino in Las Vegas. One "Gallon Gasoline Equivilent" (GGE) is about $2.

The same GGE for electricity powered cars might be about $1.50. ( not energy equivalent, since one gallon is about 33 kWh, but instead the work that can be produced).

Gasoline is $2 -$5, depending on the market.

Hydrogen... $10-$17

Now, that hydrogen is merely Natural Gas and electricity as the base ingredients, so why not skip the middle man and use existing natural gas and electricity to power the cars? One issue with natural gas... 3600psi !!!

 

[evnow]

Hmm... doesn't that same argument apply to ICE vs BEV vehicles today?

No - EV is the alt technology for ICE. And apparently FCEV and BEV are in competition.

As I posted sometime back - I think the right way to think about H2 is that it is the new fossil fuel. It burns clean - pushing all emissions to the source of H2 (just like electricity). And like fossil fuels it is inefficient and needs to be acquired at a "gas" station benefitting the big oil companies.

or may be the new ethanol, which some people actually thought was green at some point.

 

[Slow1]

Hmm... doesn't that same argument apply to ICE vs BEV vehicles today?

No - EV is the alt technology for ICE. And apparently FCEV and BEV are in competition.

As I posted sometime back - I think the right way to think about H2 is that it is the new fossil fuel. It burns clean - pushing all emissions to the source of H2 (just like electricity). And like fossil fuels it is inefficient and needs to be acquired at a "gas" station benefitting the big oil companies.

or may be the new ethanol, which some people actually thought was green at some point.

Well, what i was reading was an argument that volume of vehicle sales somehow relates to market viability of the technology. In any case I'm not sure we're disagreeing with the long term viability of H2 FCEVs.

IF a renewable source of H2 could be found (you never know) and the process of isolating the H2 required minimal energy input then I could see the possibility of it being a viable fuel source. Methane from anerobic digestion could be such a source IF it could be done in high enough volume to meet demand and the collection/distribution issues could be addressed. But then we're back to the question of why not just burn the methane to get at the energy....

While I agree the majority of electricity powering EVs come from the grid and likely fossil fuels, I do see the opportunity for owners to deploy solar panels to collect what they need if so desired.

Then there is the question of relative safety between batteries and high pressure H2 tanks...

Where the H2 wins hands down at this point though is rate of refueling for the range. I suspect we'd have to have some sort of super capacitor storage replace batteries in order to have a BEV compete there.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Trying to build an infrastructure before there is an affordably priced car to spark a market is doomed to fail. The first attempt will collapse. BEVs will be the beneficiary.

We heard it here first: The Tesla Supercharger network is doomed to fail.

Not at all. SCs and QCs are additions. The electric infrastructure existed before Tesla and LEAF. Generation and distribution all over. L1 everywhere, L2 easy as pie. I had infrastructure in my garage before the car came. I've got infrastrucure at work. I've got L2 all over town that I'll probably never use because I don't need it, but it's nice to know it's there if I do. QCs are nice, but I lived a year without any with no problem at all, and they're going up fast now because they are easy to install and cheap relative to H2. H2 has to be built from scratch, from nothing, and at a much larger relative expense. Without a FCEV Model T to drive it, it has no chance of success. Roll out a FCEV next year starting at $30k and then, yes, it might work.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

There are two dominant alternate fuel infrastructures for personal and commercial wheeled transport

Very few CNG or LNG stations here, hardly dominant.

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