Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

[GRA]

The concept that a quick charge electric vehicle would somehow be more expensive to operate than either a hydrogen car or any gasoline car is just not correct. It's easy to say, but just as easy to disapprove, as I have done several times already in this thread.

Currently, today, quick charging is available from both Tesla and other sites for free. But let's use just the fee for use method to compare with 1250 miles per month:

A) NRG / eVgo chargers at 40kW average with a Nissan LEAF with average consumption of 4 miles per kilowatt hour in the city.

B) Toyota hydrogen car that travels 50 miles per kilogram of hydrogen and costs $14 per kilogram

C) The tried and true Toyota Prius that travels 50 miles per gallon with gasoline at three dollars per gal.

*****

A) $14.95 monthly fee plus $1.50 per 15 minute charge session that will provide 10kWh, or 40 miles range. Cost for 1250 miles is ((1250 / 40) * $1.50) + $14.95, then 1250 miles divided by $61.83 per month using ONLY public fee-for-service for 15 minutes daily = $0.0495 per mile

B)

C)

B (&C). 1250/67 mpge (Mirai EPA) x $14 = $261.19. Of course, no customer's paying that at the moment so effectively their only cost is the value of their time, but all concerned know that H2 has to come down in price for H2 to be competitive with gas/diesel or electricity.

You haven't included the value of people's time in your calcs, and on average, people value their commute time at about 1/2 their equivalent hourly wage. Assuming someone makes $40k/yr or about $20/hour, they value their time at $10/hr. If you have to charge 5 times a week (ignoring the weekends) for 15 minutes each, that's another $12.50 per week, or $50/month, for a total of $111.83 ; add $13.33/month if you charge all weekend days as well, for a total of $125.16.

If we assume an average time to fuel an FCEV as 10 minutes instead of 5, and do so four times a month, that's only $6.67/month, a savings of $43.33 to $56.66 in time compared to QC'ing. The more you earn the more your time is worth, and the more you save with fast refueling.

C. 1250 miles/50 mpg Prius = 25 gallons x $3.00/gal. = $75.00 + (3? x 10 min/month x $10/hr = $5.00) = $80.00/month. The HEV clearly wins on the basis of cost and convenience for anyone who doesn't have convenient charging.

No AFV (other than at-home charged BEVs with ToU, or net metering with PV, and possibly excepting HEVs) makes financial sense given current U.S. gas prices (you used $3.00/gal.; I just paid $2.50/gal. a couple of days ago, and it's since dropped to $2.46), and at the moment we know of no for-profit QC network that is profitable, including eVgo (as mentioned in an article linked in a previous post). What remains to be seen is how much the costs can be reduced in future, so that charging and/or H2 become profitable here, which they are not now. As linked in another previous post, it appears that H2 may already have reached that point in the U.K, with their much higher gas prices (always assuming that these stations can indeed be operated at a profit for that price); they are at least in the ballpark. FCEVs don't have to be cheaper to operate than BEVs, they only have to be cheaper (or at least the same) as fossil-fueled cars. Those that can benefit from the price (given home charging)/efficiency advantages of BEVs and can charge them reliably and conveniently will opt for them, and everyone else can opt for FCEVs. Either that, or we're stuck with fossil-fuels for the mass of the world's urban car-owning population, barring sustainable bio-fuels being commercialized.

 

[GRA]

Via GCC:

DOE issues RFI on advanced thermal insulation for cold/cryogenic compressed gas on-board fuel storage

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/10/20151021-rfi.html


Via ievs:

Honda Power Exporter 9000 At 2015 CEATEC Japan (w/videos)

http://insideevs.com/honda-power-exporter-9000-2015-ceatec-japan/

The Honda Power Exporter 9000 is an external power feeding device, which on one side is connected to the hydrogen fuel cell car through CHAdeMO, and on the other side is a panel to plug-in a set of electric appliances. Total output power from the inverter stands at up to 9 kW (or more precisely 9 kVA, which typicially will be slightly less than 9 kW depending on power factor). . . .

 

[JeremyW]

Maybe we should compare natural gas, too?

Funny you should mention that, I went to a CNG trucking information seminar in Downey last week. 99c stores now lease CNG trucks and installed an on site fueling station. They reported costs of $1.53 per Gasoline Gallon equivalent with their station, about $2.23 from public stations. Station took a million to install minus a $100k AQMD grant. They quite liked the vehicles, as their quiet nature allowed them to load stores at night that were previously banned from doing with the diesels.

 

[Stoaty]

You haven't included the value of people's time in your calcs, and on average, people value their commute time at about 1/2 their equivalent hourly wage. Assuming someone makes $40k/yr or about $20/hour, they value their time at $10/hr. If you have to charge 5 times a week (ignoring the weekends) for 15 minutes each, that's another $12.50 per week, or $50/month, for a total of $111.83 ; add $13.33/month if you charge all weekend days as well, for a total of $125.16.

You forgot to include the 10-20 minute drive each way to get to one of the (rare) hydrogen fueling stations.

 

[RegGuheert]

Via ievs:

Honda Power Exporter 9000 At 2015 CEATEC Japan (w/videos)

http://insideevs.com/honda-power-exporter-9000-2015-ceatec-japan/

The Honda Power Exporter 9000 is an external power feeding device, which on one side is connected to the hydrogen fuel cell car through CHAdeMO, and on the other side is a panel to plug-in a set of electric appliances. Total output power from the inverter stands at up to 9 kW (or more precisely 9 kVA, which typicially will be slightly less than 9 kW depending on power factor). . . .

Thanks for the link. I've been watching this unit for a while now. It is precisely what I want for the LEAF.

I tried to convince Nissan that this type of appliance would help spur demand for EVs, but they showed little interest. Honda, OTOH, has a group which manufactures and sells inverter-based generators, so this is a natural fit for them. They get it.

 

[RegGuheert]

You forgot to include the 10-20 minute drive each way to get to one of the (rare) hydrogen fueling stations.

The reason we never purchased a CNG vehicle is the closest filling station was (is) 50 miles from here.

We will likely never purchase an H2 vehicle for the same reason. That, and environmental concerns. By contrast, our BEV is refueled in our garage using electricity made on the roof of the garage. Big difference.

 

[GRA]

You haven't included the value of people's time in your calcs, and on average, people value their commute time at about 1/2 their equivalent hourly wage. Assuming someone makes $40k/yr or about $20/hour, they value their time at $10/hr. If you have to charge 5 times a week (ignoring the weekends) for 15 minutes each, that's another $12.50 per week, or $50/month, for a total of $111.83 ; add $13.33/month if you charge all weekend days as well, for a total of $125.16.

You forgot to include the 10-20 minute drive each way to get to one of the (rare) hydrogen fueling stations.

Assuming that it is that far. My closest station is 1.9 miles away at a freeway exit, and enroute to other common destinations (not any of mine, unfortunately, but then I buy gas at a station 1.6 miles from home in a different direction, so that's pretty much a wash). Google maps says this is 7 minutes from me, although I routinely do better than Google maps predicted time walking or on a bike, and maybe the same would apply here. Kind of a moot point, since it's within my personal convenience time and distance, especially given how rarely I fuel up. As has been discussed ad nauseum, the auto manufacturers are vetting customers to make sure they have a station convenient to them (within 6 minutes was what they were aiming at) while the infrastructure is so limited. Not that they should need to, as people should be able to figure out whether or not an FCEV will be convenient, but I suspect very few potential customers are aware of the CAFCP website or have read deployment plans.

The closest QC is 4 blocks walk, albeit 1/2 mile by car owing to one-way streets, but is a Blink @ $0.59/kWh (figure at least $0.60/kWh allowing for overhead). The nearest eVgo QC is 8/10ths of a mile _beyond_ the H2 station and that same distance from the freeway, on the same street, and just like the H2 station or any gas station, not anywhere I'd want to spend time at. The Blink is close to other things and home, but it's sure as hell not worth paying 15 cents a mile for (more for me, since the majority of my driving is on freeways and highways at or above the speed limit, using the HVAC as necessary), when I can fuel my not terribly fuel-efficient Forester for no more than 9.3 cents/mile, it's paid for, cost far less than any BEV or FCEV, and has a ubiquitous infrastructure. Even for my Forester, to equal the Blink's per mile 'fuel' cost, gas would have to be selling for at least $4.05/gal., and more likely $4.25. To match a Prius gas costs would have to be considerably higher, as it would currently run under 5 cents/mile ($2.46/gal.).


Speaking of my local H2 station, two dispensers are on site, but weren't yet installed as of Monday. They look almost identical to the typical liquid fuel dispenser - each has two large black-on-yellow fuel selector buttons, labeled 'H35' and 'H70', with a dedicated hose for each located at opposite ends of the dispenser body. There's also a numeric keypad and (I assume; didn't get close enough to see) a credit card slot for payment. I didn't think this site's capacity was going to be big enough to need two dispensers, but maybe I'm mis-remembering, or else plans have changed. The October 31st deadline for completion to qualify for the max. O&M subsidy approaches, so I expect they'll get them installed soon and inspected, if they haven't already.

 

[GRA]

You forgot to include the 10-20 minute drive each way to get to one of the (rare) hydrogen fueling stations.

The reason we never purchased a CNG vehicle is the closest filling station was (is) 50 miles from here.

We will likely never purchase an H2 vehicle for the same reason. That, and environmental concerns. By contrast, our BEV is refueled in our garage using electricity made on the roof of the garage. Big difference.

Infrastructure convenience and price will be the deciding issue for most people. There's a CNG fill station about 3.5 miles from me, and I've occasionally seen a Civic NGV using it, but they never took off here. By contrast, countries like Brazil, China, India, Iran and Pakistan each have more than a million CNG cars on the road: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1093785_where-are-natural-gas-vehicles-most-popular-and-most-numerous

 

[Firetruck41]

So in one case add cost for time involved to "refuel" but on the other case, leave it off as it is within your personal "convenience zone"? I would recommend you remove that from all calculations, instead of picking and choosing to fit your narrative.

 

[GRA]

Via ievs:

Honda Power Exporter 9000 At 2015 CEATEC Japan (w/videos)

http://insideevs.com/honda-power-exporter-9000-2015-ceatec-japan/

The Honda Power Exporter 9000 is an external power feeding device, which on one side is connected to the hydrogen fuel cell car through CHAdeMO, and on the other side is a panel to plug-in a set of electric appliances. Total output power from the inverter stands at up to 9 kW (or more precisely 9 kVA, which typicially will be slightly less than 9 kW depending on power factor). . . .

Thanks for the link. I've been watching this unit for a while now. It is precisely what I want for the LEAF.

I tried to convince Nissan that this type of appliance would help spur demand for EVs, but they showed little interest. Honda, OTOH, has a group which manufactures and sells inverter-based generators, so this is a natural fit for them. They get it.

It does seem such an obvious application for any EV, doesn't it? I thought Nissan had made some claims about doing something similar with the LEAF, but maybe I'm remembering homebrew set-ups. Toyota also has plans for this sort of thing with the Mirai, although at least as of this article last November they hadn't decided whether to offer it on U.S. spec Mirais: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1095522_2016-toyota-mirai-power-out-jack-could-run-your-home-in-emergencies

I suspect this would be a big seller in areas subject to natural disasters that could have long-term power outages, like California, Florida and the east coast, etc. 150kWh is maybe a bit excessive, but allows you to drive around and still have enough left to provide power for a considerable time.

 

[GRA]

So in one case add cost for time involved to "refuel" but on the other case, leave it off as it is within your personal "convenience zone"? I would recommend you remove that from all calculations, instead of picking and choosing to fit your narrative.

Nope, I included it in both calcs, although it will obviously vary depending on someone's personal situation. In mine, It not only takes more time to 'refuel' at a QC, but the relatively affordable QC is further away from me than the H2 station is, so it's doubly less convenient.

 

[GRA]

Or get a new landlord.....

Or live in a state (eg, CA) that legally requires landlords to install (level 2) chargers for tenants who are willing to pay for the installation.

How many people do you think will be willing to pay to install the wiring, get the permits etc., for a property they don't own and which they may be moving from? How often do you think they'll be willing to do it, if they move frequently, permanent jobs being a lot less common than they used to be, and renters being more likely to be lower paid and moving/changing jobs more often? If you can afford a Tesla, maybe this is no big deal, but is the average renter, especially someone who can only afford used cars, going to do this? Sure they are, right after they pay to insulate and weatherstrip the place.

 

[Firetruck41]

So in one case add cost for time involved to "refuel" but on the other case, leave it off as it is within your personal "convenience zone"? I would recommend you remove that from all calculations, instead of picking and choosing to fit your narrative.

Nope, I included it in both calcs, although it will obviously vary depending on someone's personal situation. In mine, It not only takes more time to 'refuel' at a QC, but the relatively affordable QC is further away from me than the H2 station is, so it's doubly less convenient.

Well in my personal situation, I would just charge at home, no dcfc. 2.5 cents per mile. No charge for "time".

 

[GRA]

So in one case add cost for time involved to "refuel" but on the other case, leave it off as it is within your personal "convenience zone"? I would recommend you remove that from all calculations, instead of picking and choosing to fit your narrative.

Nope, I included it in both calcs, although it will obviously vary depending on someone's personal situation. In mine, It not only takes more time to 'refuel' at a QC, but the relatively affordable QC is further away from me than the H2 station is, so it's doubly less convenient.

Well in my personal situation, I would just charge at home, no dcfc. 2.5 cents per mile. No charge for "time".

Sure, if you've got that situation, but this discussion is based on the fact that the majority of the world's urban population can't do that, and won't be able to for decades, even assuming that a universal requirement for EVSE and/or QC installation were implemented for all new construction today, which isn't the case.

Well upthread I posted the rate at which public chargers had been installed in the U.S. over the past four years or so, and how many years it would take if instead of installing them across the country, they'd all been installed in San Francisco. To recap, and off the top of my head so I may get the figures slightly wrong, there had been 24k charging stations (1 usable connector = 1 station) installed over about 4 or 4.5 years. San Francisco has 441k publicly accessible parking spots, and more resembles European or Asian cities than American ones in its population density and % living in multifamily housing without dedicated parking. So, 441k/(6k/year) = 73.5 years to install charging at every publicly accessible parking spot. In actual fact, San Francisco installed somewhere between 600 and 800 public charging stations over that period, but let's be generous and assume 1,000 total, or 250 year. 441k/(250/year) = 1,764 years. If you assume that not every space needs to have charging, then the time decreases, and if the rate of installation increases it also drops. Even if you assume that cities will prioritize doing this, find the money to install them and figure out how to make public charging profitable, no matter how you play with the numbers it's going to take decades to install the necessary public charging infrastructure for people who don't live in detached, single family homes with dedicated parking/garages and power.

 

[RegGuheert]

It does seem such an obvious application for any EV, doesn't it? I thought Nissan had made some claims about doing something similar with the LEAF, but maybe I'm remembering homebrew set-ups.

Nissan has a solution which is hard-wired into your house and doubles as a charger rather than a portable generator replacement.

 

[GRA]

It does seem such an obvious application for any EV, doesn't it? I thought Nissan had made some claims about doing something similar with the LEAF, but maybe I'm remembering homebrew set-ups.

Nissan has a solution which is hard-wired into your house and doubles as a charger rather than a portable generator replacement.

So, a two way EVSE? Smart charging as well, I'd assume.

 

[RegGuheert]

So, a two way EVSE? Smart charging as well, I'd assume.

No, it's a charger which plugs into the Chademo port. I don't know if it is grid interactive or not.

I'm pretty sure they never offered it for sale in the U.S., however.

We'll see if Honda and Toyota ever deliver the Chademo generators they are talking about in this market. Hopefully these things will become standardized (beyond the connectors) and work across manufacturers. Mitsubishi had a 2 kVA version for the iMiev and Nissan told me it was not compatible with the LEAF.

 

[GRA]

Semi-OT, but as there has been much discussion here I thought I'd provide this link as an example of the kind of commitment of money, time and government regulation it will take to provide even relatively small amounts (relative to the potential need) of public charging. Via ievs:

China To Build Nationwide Charging Network Capable Of Supporting 5 Million Electric Cars

http://insideevs.com/china-build-nationwide-charging-network-capable-supporting-5-million-electric-cars/

Guidelines indicate that besides public charging spots (and inter-city highways), the number will include residential areas and business districts.

“New residential complexes should build charging points or assign space for them, while public parking lots should have no less than 10 percent of parking spaces with charging facilities. There should be at least one public charging station for every 2,000 NEVs, the guideline said.

To finance the project, the government will encourage private investment, allow charger manufacturers to issue corporate bonds, and seek investment from pension funds.”

One public charging station per 2,000 PEVs is pretty miniscule, but you have to start somewhere. In five years we can see if China has succeeded better at this than they have with the introduction of PEVs (they were forecasting far higher PEV uptakes than has happened, but the rate is picking up now as smog regs have tightened), and if they manage to make public charging profitable without govt. support. Or they may just decide that it's worth doing as a public good, and pay for most of it themselves, although the current state of the Chinese economy makes such expensive government actions a lot harder now than they were five or ten years back.

 

[TonyWilliams]

... The Blink is close to other things and home, but it's sure as hell not worth paying 15 cents a mile for (more for me, since the majority of my driving is on freeways and highways at or above the speed limit, using the HVAC as necessary), when I can fuel my not terribly fuel-efficient Forester for no more than 9.3 cents/mile, it's paid for, cost far less than any BEV or FCEV, and has a ubiquitous infrastructure. Even for my Forester, to equal the Blink's per mile 'fuel' cost, gas would have to be selling for at least $4.05/gal., and more likely $4.25. To match a Prius gas costs would have to be considerably higher, as it would currently run under 5 cents/mile ($2.46/gal.).

Blink is a non-event in a future EV business. There are something like 66 mostly operational BLINK stations in the world, out of 10,000 installed CHAdeMO stations. Noise. Lint in your belly button. Virtually GUARANTEED to go bankrupt again.

I can't even believe you spent time using them to compare anything. But, compared t hydrogen, there are far more stations, for a cheaper price.

 

[GRA]

... The Blink is close to other things and home, but it's sure as hell not worth paying 15 cents a mile for (more for me, since the majority of my driving is on freeways and highways at or above the speed limit, using the HVAC as necessary), when I can fuel my not terribly fuel-efficient Forester for no more than 9.3 cents/mile, it's paid for, cost far less than any BEV or FCEV, and has a ubiquitous infrastructure. Even for my Forester, to equal the Blink's per mile 'fuel' cost, gas would have to be selling for at least $4.05/gal., and more likely $4.25. To match a Prius gas costs would have to be considerably higher, as it would currently run under 5 cents/mile ($2.46/gal.).

Blink is a non-event in a future EV business. There are something like 66 mostly operational BLINK stations in the world, out of 10,000 installed CHAdeMO stations. Noise. Lint in your belly button. Virtually GUARANTEED to go bankrupt again.

I can't even believe you spent time using them to compare anything. But, compared t hydrogen, there are far more stations, for a cheaper price.

At the moment hydrogen would be cheaper for me and anyone else in California, because it's free to the consumer. And until someone other than Blink builds a QC within walking distance of me, they're the only QC option that's closer than the H2 station. It's unlikely that eVgo will build one, as they've already built one in the city (the one that's 8/10ths of a mile _further_ away from me than the H2 station); they've apparently completed the number of QCs in the Bay Area that the legal settlement required, and since they're losing money like every other full-service QC network (at least, all the ones that have to report publicly), I'd imagine they have zero desire to expand beyond the required number.

BTW, in my earlier post I quoted the figure of the average person valuing their commute time at 1/2 their equivalent hourly wage. Just in case anyone was wondering if I pulled that number out of my ass, it was established pretty early on in the research, c.f. the third link below, top of page 9, which states

First, the value of time for commute trips seems typically to average around one-half the
gross wage rate—amazingly close to the early results of Lave (1969). Values also vary widely by
trip purpose, typically being highest for business travel and lowest for discretionary leisure
travel.

There's been a lot more research subsequently that goes into far more detail as to the variables that affect Value of Time calculations by individuals. Anyone looking for a good insomnia cure might want to dive into one of these less-than-stimulating reads:

The Value of Travel Time Savings:
Departmental Guidance for Conducting Economic Evaluations
Revision 2

https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.dev/files/docs/vot_guidance_092811c.pdf

Commuting Time Choice and the Value of Travel Time

http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:278104/FULLTEXT02.pdf

and

Valuation of Travel Time

http://www.socsci.uci.edu/~ksmall/VOT%20review.pdf

You'll be catching ZZZs in no time.