TonyWilliams said:
GRA said:
I'm certainly missing your point, if you're saying that range anxiety doesn't exist. Care to clarify?
Driving any hydrogen car would be the very definition of "range anxiety". I'm currently traveling coast-to-coast and my Tesla Model S-70D, and I have no range anxiety. It's pitifully easy. I'm also doing something that no hydrogen car can do today, or any point in the proposed future.
I believe the point that he was making is that the report says that all roads lead to hydrogen (except maybe around town travel), because of the subjective "range anxiety".
Tony, 3 years ago you would have been suffering range anxiety in your Tesla too, and that would include most of California; hell, until a few months ago you would have been forced to travel several hundred miles out of your way to stay on the only available coast-to-coast SC route. Infrastructure is required for any vehicle technology to be viable, and doesn't appear overnight, as you well know. Remind us again of your 10-15 mph nighttime drive up Highway 1 to make it to Big Sur in your LEAF, with your daughter in the car and your emergency flashers on. Do you think driving an FCEV with 3 or 4 times the range, and stations in San Jose and say San Luis Obispo would have given you more or less range anxiety than that? As it is, you can now do L..A -S.F. or Sac via I-5 with zero range anxiety in an FCV at flow of traffic speeds, and with only one 5 or 10 minute stop enroute, just like any fossil-fueled ICE. And it's
no big deal.
Just as Tesla did, H2 stations will begin in California and the NE corridor (Boston - Washington), then (I expect) will be extended the length of I-5 and south down I-95. If an early X-C route is desired for PR purposes, one thing we can all expect is that the initial one won't be chosen at the whim of a CEO suffering from nostalgia. Per my AAA U.S. map, it's 2,906 miles from S.F. to New York, and 2,790 from L.A.- N.Y.C. by the most direct routes. Depending on the average spacing between stations, you can cover those distances with anywhere between 16 and 20 stops (including one at each end) in a Tucson, and 13-15 stops in a Mirai, even being very conservative since we don't know yet know their energy usage under a variety of conditions (I had a look at how the Model S' range varies under a variety of conditions and speeds using both Tesla's range calculator and EVtripplanner, then subtracted up to 105 miles from each FCEV's EPA range, to allow for freeway speeds up to 80 mph, headwinds, dense air, A/C use and/or climbs plus a 30 mile reserve). For example:
Tucson EPA range 265 miles, S.F. - NYC 2,906 miles / average station spacing 160 miles (2 hours at 80 mph, plus 30 mile reserve at same speed; longer spacing at slower speeds, flatter ground, no A/C use etc.) = 18.2 stops = 20 total (S.F. + 18 + NYC). 180 mile spacing only requires 18 stations, (1+16+1), and 200 mile spacing only 16 (1+14+1). You can subtract 1 station for LA - NYC.
Mirai EPA range 312 miles, 2,906 / 210 miles = 13.8 stops = 15 total (1+13+1). 230 mile spacing, 14 stations ((1+12+1); 250 mile spacing, 13 stations (1+11+1). LA-NYC requires the same. If you wanted to push it you could space them further apart, but I prefer to design for worst case in the area.
The end stations are going to be built in any case, so there'd only be a need to build the middle ones specially. Unlike SCs, you
want to build H2 stations in heavily populated cities, so the act of building the X-C route has the double benefit of also opening up more
local FCV markets, whenever the auto companies decide to expand into them. If we assume that they'll all be added to existing gas stations (likely), and that the cost of same is $1.5 million each (assuming virtually no economies of scale or learning curve cost reductions will apply compared to early California low-level production, which isn't likely), then with 20 stations you're looking at a total capital outlay of just $30 million for the whole route. If each station will be built ab initio and will cost $3 million, that's still only $60 million. Whatever the number, this is hardly stretching any state or major corporation's finances. A big corporation's advertising budget is many multiples of that, and just as the SCs do for Tesla, station networks can be a major marketing point. Toyota's committed or paid out something like $7.2 million in loans to finance stations in California, and some more in the NE. Honda has also committed/paid out millions in loans ($13.8 million to FirstElement) likewise, so building a X-C H2 route is hardly a major stretch for them, if it helps sell the cars and the tech. After all, Toyota's already spent several
billion developing the tech, and Honda probably well upwards of a billion; do you think they're going to nickle and dime themselves now, when they're beginning the move to commercialization?