Goodbye Leaf, Hello Model 3

[golfcart]

Last I heard, Nissan is just using a passive air cooled TMS. That is a deal killer. I feel you can get by with a passive system on a small hybrid battery, like the prius, but as #rapidgate shows, no active TMS will prevent a quick charge.

For some passive cooling is a deal killer, I get that. It isn't a deal breaker for me because of how my car is used and my wife having a PHEV but I don't blame anyone who won't buy a leaf with passive cooling. It limits the utility of the vehicle and merits concerns about resale does the road.

 

[golfcart]

Tesla has moved the release date of the $35k version a number of times. No question there.
However, this time they did NOT say the $35k version was coming in 4-6 months. You are just setting yourself up for disappointment.

I don't fault Tesla for doing what they need to do in order to be profitable I'd just appreciate if they'd be honest. They may not have promised this time but they have a bunch of times before.

But sure, to your point, they don't actually promise a $35k model 3 on the page in 4-6 months just a standard battery. That's why I said that I "assumed"it would be the $35k version.

 

[Zythryn]

Tesla has moved the release date of the $35k version a number of times. No question there.
However, this time they did NOT say the $35k version was coming in 4-6 months. You are just setting yourself up for disappointment.

I don't fault Tesla for doing what they need to do in order to be profitable I'd just appreciate if they'd be honest. They may not have promised this time but they have a bunch of times before.

But sure, to your point, they don't actually promise a $35k model 3 on the page in 4-6 months just a standard battery. That's why I said that I "assumed"it would be the $35k version.

Don't you see though, they are being honest. They currently plan to bring the standard sized battery pack to market in 4-6 months.
You assumed that also means the base model.
Knowing their history as you do and then saying they aren't being honest if they don't deliver something they didn't say they would deliver (in this instance) is why I tend to dismiss all the reports of "Tesla Lied!!".

Tesla often has goals the company can't meet in the timeframe they shoot for. They do meet the goals, just not on time.

Tesla, in some cases, didn't meet the assumptions made by people. That isn't on Tesla, it is on you (in this specific case).

 

[coach81]

Go Tesla!!! Elon is da man!!!

 

[golfcart]

Don't you see though, they are being honest. They currently plan to bring the standard sized battery pack to market in 4-6 months.
You assumed that also means the base model.
Knowing their history as you do and then saying they aren't being honest if they don't deliver something they didn't say they would deliver (in this instance) is why I tend to dismiss all the reports of "Tesla Lied!!".

Tesla often has goals the company can't meet in the timeframe they shoot for. They do meet the goals, just not on time.

Tesla, in some cases, didn't meet the assumptions made by people. That isn't on Tesla, it is on you (in this specific case).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4VGQPk2Dl8

From 16:55 - 17:19 in the video.

"When are deliveries, well... they're next year." ... "And in terms of price, well... of course it'll be thirty five thousand dollars"

That was posted in March 2016. It is currently 2019... We clearly have different definitions of honest.

And for the last F'n time... I didn't say "Tesla promised" that they are making the $35k Tesla in 4 - 6 months. I said this:

I was just on the Tesla website and it says "standard battery available in 4-6 months". I'm assuming that is the promised $35k Tesla... It sucks that by the time this version comes out they'll have an $1875 federal tax credit at best.

I qualified it with "I'm assuming" and "at best" meaning that I don't know but if it is... then it sucks I can't get the full tax credit. If I come back in 6 months and say "Tesla lied, their website promised we'd have the $35k Model 3 4-6 months from January and it isn't here" then you can scold me all you want. Until then you are the one being dishonest.

 

[Zythryn]

I have already agreed with you about Tesla's earlier missed goals.
My point was this case specifically, where you said you would complain in 4-6 months if Tesla wasn't producing the $35k version.

Tesla, at this latest statement, didn't say the base model would be here in 4-6 months. So you can assume it will be, but you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

[Evoforce]

Bottom line, Tesla S 3 X is not eletric vehicle vaporware like most manufacturers currently are. That means most car manufacturers are extremely slow in delivering to the public. At least Tesla (while a little late on some projections) is delivering a great American built product and trying hard to produce what they say.

I have been rooting for Nissan EV's but they refuse to produce a battery with longevity. I was hoping that would be the 2019 model at worst. Alas, they still don't get it... Air cooling doesn't cut it as Kia Soul has already proven. I still own 2 Leafs but my Model S is far superior.

I want Tesla to have some real head to head competition. Even with a little current competition, no manufactures to date have produced a vehicle that equals or is better. Then, let's also look at usability with Tesla very much on top with reliable and proliferating charging infrastructure.

 

[golfcart]

Bottom line, Tesla S 3 X is not eletric vehicle vaporware like most manufacturers currently are. That means most car manufacturers are extremely slow in delivering to the public. At least Tesla (while a little late on some projections) is delivering a great American built product and trying hard to produce what they say.

I have been rooting for Nissan EV's but they refuse to produce a battery with longevity. I was hoping that would be the 2019 model at worst. Alas, they still don't get it... Air cooling doesn't cut it as Kia Soul has already proven. I still own 2 Leafs but my Model S is far superior.

I want Tesla to have some real head to head competition. Even with a little current competition, no manufactures to date have produced a vehicle that equals or is better. Then, let's also look at usability with Tesla very much on top with reliable and proliferating charging infrastructure.

Make no mistake, I respect the hell out of what Tesla have been able to accomplish in the last 10 years. They have created a new car company out of thin air, done wonders for the mass acceptance of EVs, and had the foresight to create the supercharger network making it possible to have an EV as your only vehicle. I get all that.

I just can't afford one. They keep dangling the one I could afford out there, but it is always 6 months away... for the last 3 years. And now the tax credit is expiring making it even less likely that I will be able to afford one any time soon. That is my annoyance.

 

[SageBrush]

I just can't afford one. They keep dangling the one I could afford out there, but it is always 6 months away... for the last 3 years. And now the tax credit is expiring making it even less likely that I will be able to afford one any time soon. That is my annoyance.

Understood, I'd feel the same way. Hopefully a healthy used Tesla market develops that competes well with the used ICE market.

 

[Lothsahn]

I have been rooting for Nissan EV's but they refuse to produce a battery with longevity. I was hoping that would be the 2019 model at worst. Alas, they still don't get it... Air cooling doesn't cut it as Kia Soul has already proven. I still own 2 Leafs but my Model S is far superior.

I want Tesla to have some real head to head competition. Even with a little current competition, no manufactures to date have produced a vehicle that equals or is better. Then, let's also look at usability with Tesla very much on top with reliable and proliferating charging infrastructure.

IMO, Nissan has two options to make the Leaf competitive:
1) Fix battery chemistry and cooling to ensure the battery lasts the life of the vehicle, like Tesla OR
2) Provide an upgraded battery during replacement

If a battery purchase wasn't just a repair, but an upgrade, it would justify its price. We know that battery technology is improving rapidly. If Nissan offered the latest packs as replacements for the older model years (and promised future upgrades for current Leafs), it would change everything. The battery could be treated as a "wear" component that is swapped out with a better version in the future.

That would mean your choice is between a $45k Tesla or a $35k Leaf, but you would know that you'll be able to upgrade your Leaf's range in 8 years. People pay big $$$$ for cellphone upgrades. I believe the same opportunity exists for electric car batteries.

Maybe they don't want to do that, because they want to encourage us to buy new Leaf's instead of use the ones we have. But that strategy is foolish. The excitement around the Leaf has mostly died and there are much better new EVs. Market saturation of EV's is currently very low. Nissan needs to make the Leaf exciting to attract new ICE owners if they want to thrive, not push existing Leaf owners to upgrade. And offering upgrades to existing owners will only energize the vocal minority that does a lot of the word-of-mouth advertising that is so valuable.

 

[pipestem]

Bottom line, Tesla S 3 X is not electric vehicle vaporware like most manufacturers currently are. That means most car manufacturers are extremely slow in delivering to the public. At least Tesla (while a little late on some projections) is delivering a great American built product and trying hard to produce what they say.

I have been rooting for Nissan EV's but they refuse to produce a battery with longevity. I was hoping that would be the 2019 model at worst. Alas, they still don't get it... Air cooling doesn't cut it as Kia Soul has already proven. I still own 2 Leafs but my Model S is far superior.

I want Tesla to have some real head to head competition. Even with a little current competition, no manufactures to date have produced a vehicle that equals or is better. Then, let's also look at usability with Tesla very much on top with reliable and proliferating charging infrastructure.

I agree with everything you said, but add that in all honesty the difference between Leaf and Model 3 is WAY, W-A-Y more than battery cooling. I won't bore you, just go drive one and see. I loved my Leaf and it's sad, Nissan should be wildly upping their game. Tesla already outsells all of Infiniti by a good margin. They do know how to engineer great cars.

I will say Tesla has been saying SR in 4-6 months for more than 4-6 months . I get the frustration of golfcart and the 300k+ reservation holders still waiting out there. There were a lot of us in December who said it's now or never.

 

[Triggerhappy007]

That would mean your choice is between a $45k Tesla or a $35k Leaf, but you would know that you'll be able to upgrade your Leaf's range in 8 years. People pay big $$$$ for cellphone upgrades. I believe the same opportunity exists for electric car batteries.

The difference is they're paying big $$$$ to get a new phone, not a bigger battery for an old phone.

 

[pipestem]

Nissan announced the Leaf + tonight. More than just a battery, and will be in all trim levels. No cooling specs, but warranty still ok. Good showing I think. Keeping my Model 3.

 

[specialgreen]

A well known Youtuber said Tesla don't sell parts. So the parts catalog is out but you cannot buy new parts. You have to go to junkyard or eBay for parts.

For most cars, the OEM parts are too expensive for common issues anyways, so I would use NAPA for stuff like 12v batteries, brake rotors/shoes, remanufactured half axle/alternator/pumps; use RockAuto for (say) rock guard, window regulator, broken door handle, trim pieces.

If owning a Tesla outside of warranty means: you take it to the Tesla service center and pay whatever the price is, then I think it is going to be beyond my means.

 

[tesleaf]

Is the supercharger network and the better looks/performance of the Tesla worth $6000 to you over a Leaf and $2000 over a Bolt? Maybe it is maybe it isn't it just depends on the individual.

Last I heard, Nissan is just using a passive air cooled TMS. That is a deal killer. I feel you can get by with a passive system on a small hybrid battery, like the prius, but as #rapidgate shows, no active TMS will prevent a quick charge.

And S trim doesn't have heated seats, heated steering or QC port as standard.
You will have to add option pkg or go up to SV trim ...

Yes, I think $5000 is worth it to go with Tesla for TMS and super charger network. Also, over the air software update.
I don't need the hatchback style for my car. We have a family SUV.

 

[LeftieBiker]

And S trim doesn't have heated seats, heated steering or QC port as standard. You will have to add option pkg or go up to SV trim ...

The SV doesn't come with heated seats, heated steering wheel, or a heatpump standard any more, either. The main difference is you do get the heatpump with the "Cold Weather Package."

 

[golfcart]

And S trim doesn't have heated seats, heated steering or QC port as standard.
You will have to add option pkg or go up to SV trim ...

Yes, I think $5000 is worth it to go with Tesla for TMS and super charger network. Also, over the air software update.
I don't need the hatchback style for my car. We have a family SUV.

I think it's important to note that we don't know what will be standard on the S plus, we don't know what will be standard on the Tesla 3 SR (if it ever comes out), and we don't know what either of them will actually cost. The S plus should most definitely have the full federal credit for the rest of 2019 and likely beyond. The Tesla SR "$35k" may have no credit by the time it is actually available.

To your other points about the S trim...

I believe the S plus will have over the air software updates based on the Nissan press release.

The display features smartphone-like operation including swiping, scrolling and tapping. Applications, maps and firmware are updated over the air with the simple touch of a button, instead of having to manually update by USB or at a Nissan dealership.*5

https://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan...-world-s-best-selling-electric-vehicle-family

And the official Nissan ePlus website implies that QC will be standard so the S plus should have that as well.

Get your Nissan LEAF PLUS Series to an 80% charge in as little as 45 minutes. Using the standard Quick Charging port you'll be able to fill up fast, and top off faster, at a growing number of 100 kW chargers. [*]

https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/electric-cars/2019-leaf-plus.html

But yeah, if you have the means to do so then it might be worth the extra $6k on the Tesla (price difference based on my earlier assumptions). That small a price difference will probably end up being a wash in resale value over the long haul. Hopefully by this summer we have some solid numbers on both vehicles.

 

[pipestem]

And the official Nissan ePlus website implies that QC will be standard so the S plus should have that as well.
....
But yeah, if you have the means to do so then it might be worth the extra $6k on the Tesla (price difference based on my earlier assumptions). That small a price difference will probably end up being a wash in resale value over the long haul. Hopefully by this summer we have some solid numbers on both vehicles.

1- It would be so, so cruel to give you 62kWh but no QC. Same for frequent, sustained rapid charging.

2 - If one really believes that the resell difference will make up the initial cost + opportunity loss, then taking the lesser option is actually a bigger investment and more risky. I know that is hard to wrap your head around and one's personal feeling about cost and purchase satisfaction are the most important factors. It's like buying a house. Of course you cannot afford it straight up, but you have an expectation it will work out in the long run. Yes, this is a meaningless side discussion about micro-economics.

 

[golfcart]

2 - If one really believes that the resell difference will make up the initial cost + opportunity loss, then taking the lesser option is actually a bigger investment and more risky. I know that is hard to wrap your head around and one's personal feeling about cost and purchase satisfaction are the most important factors. It's like buying a house. Of course you cannot afford it straight up, but you have an expectation it will work out in the long run. Yes, this is a meaningless side discussion about micro-economics.

Definitely true if we had perfect information, but hard in practice because future resale is an educated guess at best. Not to mention there are limits to the monthly payment one can make or even the loan one can qualify for.

To your house analogy... a mansion on the beach would have been a better net investment than my small brick ranch, but I couldn't afford the payments on the mansion along with the extra insurance and property taxes imposed by the ownership of the mansion. That doesn't make the brick ranch a bad investment. It was the best investment that I could make within my means. Sure, the mansion is a nicer house and would net me more money in the long run but it is irrelevant if I don't qualify for the loan. That's why I said "if you have the means..."

It is a crapshoot anyways in terms of resale. Who knows if either of these cars will be worth squat 10 - 15 years down the line. If there are autonomous uber fleets then car ownership might be obsolete and nobody will want them. Then that $45,000 Tesla is worthless just like the $30,000 leaf. Or what if you plan to run the car until it dies which will mean that resale doesn't really matter and the lower maintenance cost of the Leaf might win out... who really knows? We just all need to make the best choices for our situations based on our means, goals, and best guesses about the future.

 

[pipestem]

^ totally agree. The beach mansion probably had a tad bit more margin than the M3, but in both cases they are above baseline. Funny thing is I actually do know people that have have downgraded their main house for a beach house. (disclaimer - I do not own a 2nd house).

Moving on, you pretty much know exactly what you are getting in the Leaf +, but not exactly the price. Bottom line, what do you think ?
I forget, did you ever consider the Bolt ?