February orders - any open yet? and reservation date spread

[defiancecp]

February's here, and a quick search didn't show any threads already going, so I figured I'd open discussion on Feb orders. I'd guess noone's dashboard has opened yet, but I'd love to be wrong Mine's not anyway, but I'm guessing I'm probably pretty far down the tail of the February orders - Carlos Ghosn announced reservations stopped on September 24th, and my current reservation was made on September 3rd. Of course, I have no context on how many people are before or after that.

Also, I've supposedly put in a waiver, but my account still asks me to make a reservation for a home evaluation. Is that normal? Just making sure.

 

[garygid]

Yes, AV reservation is normal even after requesting a waiver.

There was (and still is?) no way to check it except by calling CS and asking them to double-check. Ask "Did anybody call in an AV waiver for my account?", or some such, so they do not if you want a Yes or a No.

 

[popak]

Mine hasn't opened yet either. And I have the AV waiver too but the dashboard still shows the "Schedule home evaluation" link.

Can't wait to order. Let's hope Feb order does not mean the dashboard won't open until 2/28

defiancecp, what is your order date? Mine's in my sig.

 

[shtimseht]

Mine has not opened either. Home assessment: eTec application accepted* but the "order your Nissan Leaf" has an anti-sign next to it.

 

[defiancecp]

popak, my reservation date is 9/3

 

[stanley]

My son has an 8/14 reservation date. I will let you know when his dashboard opens

 

[stanley]

I found on"post your order detail" a thread from Briansandiego reading that his dashboard opened on 1/27. He had a 7/17 reservation date and was a January order. The significance of the date 7/17 is that I recall on that date Nissan executives indicated that they had 17,000 reservations. So, that means that when February dashboards open they will start with reservation 17,000 + and end at 20,000. Assuming that my recollection is correct, that means that Nissan will be opening aproximately 1,800 dashboards in February. 3,000 reservations x 60 %(the % of reservations in Launch States = 1800 dashboards). In the past Nissan has opened about 200 a day once they start opening dashboards. Useing this information you should be able to estimate when your dashboard will open.

 

[evnow]

I found on"post your order detail" a thread from Briansandiego reading that his dashboard opened on 1/27. He had a 7/17 reservation date and was a January order. The significance of the date 7/17 is that I recall on that date Nissan executives indicated that they had 17,000 reservations. So, that means that when February dashboards open they will start with reservation 17,000 + and end at 20,000. Assuming that my recollection is correct, that means that Nissan will be opening aproximately 1,800 dashboards in February. 3,000 reservations x 60 %(the % of reservations in Launch States = 1800 dashboards). In the past Nissan has opened about 200 a day once they start opening dashboards. Useing this information you should be able to estimate when your dashboard will open.

Interesting.

So, 17,000*60% ~ 10,000 people have been allowed to order. Assuming a low 50% conversion rate, that is 5K orders. Could be higher if the conversion rate is higher.

 

[EVDRIVER]

I found on"post your order detail" a thread from Briansandiego reading that his dashboard opened on 1/27. He had a 7/17 reservation date and was a January order. The significance of the date 7/17 is that I recall on that date Nissan executives indicated that they had 17,000 reservations. So, that means that when February dashboards open they will start with reservation 17,000 + and end at 20,000. Assuming that my recollection is correct, that means that Nissan will be opening aproximately 1,800 dashboards in February. 3,000 reservations x 60 %(the % of reservations in Launch States = 1800 dashboards). In the past Nissan has opened about 200 a day once they start opening dashboards. Useing this information you should be able to estimate when your dashboard will open.

Interesting.

So, 17,000*60% ~ 10,000 people have been allowed to order. Assuming a low 50% conversion rate, that is 5K orders. Could be higher if the conversion rate is higher.

I think they expected 30% and got 43 or so and if so I would expect that to drop to 30s since early orders will have a higher take up rate.

 

[defiancecp]

Ok - so let me see if I'm understanding correctly

As of 7/17 there were 17,000 reservations. On 9/23, there were 20,000 reservations. Even though it's probably not a flat rate, it's far enough from initial that averaging the distribution shouldn't be *too* far from accurate. So that's 3,000 reservations in 68 days - 44 reservations per day.

So, in my case, I reserved on 9/3, 47 days after 17k. That puts me at around reservation 19,068, or 2068 reservations after 17k.

Now, if the 17,000th reservationis ordere 1/27, and there are around 200 dashboards opening per day, and I need about 2,000 more dashboards to open, so that puts me about 10 days after 1/27, or around 2/6-2/7 ish.

Huh... if that's all correct, the entire 20k should be run through by around 2/15.



Didn't I hear some people mention getting March order months? Maybe I'm just imagining things today

 

[stanley]

defiancep, To my knowledge, Nissan has not opened dashboards fo February as yet. So you can not count off the 6 days in February until that happens. For example if Nissan starts to open dashboards on tuesday the 8th, your dashboard would probably open around the 16th. (can`t count weekdays in the calculation). That is my guess and I`m sticking to it! Let us know how accurate my prediction terns out to be.

I have not heard of any with a March date for dashboard openings.

 

[BruinLEAFer]

Isn't the 20,000 figure for the entire US? I thought ordering was only taking place in 7 states. Is there any way to know the number of those reserved in the initial 7 states?

 

[rnkepler]

Yes, 20K was for the entire US. 60% of that number has been used as an estimate of the reservations in the initial launch states. I'm not sure the 60% is a guess or if it was official though.

 

[defiancecp]

Oh yeah, that's right - I'd have to adjust my math for that.

So instead of 10 days after I would be more like 6 days after, and there would likely only be about 10 days worth of orders at all in Feb. And I see what you mean about starting that count once Feb orders actually open.

Were there more people in January after the 27th, or was that pretty well where it cut off?

In the end it doesn't matter, but it's a fun little math problem

 

[charlie1300]

I found on"post your order detail" a thread from Briansandiego reading that his dashboard opened on 1/27. He had a 7/17 reservation date and was a January order. The significance of the date 7/17 is that I recall on that date Nissan executives indicated that they had 17,000 reservations. So, that means that when February dashboards open they will start with reservation 17,000 + and end at 20,000. Assuming that my recollection is correct, that means that Nissan will be opening aproximately 1,800 dashboards in February. 3,000 reservations x 60 %(the % of reservations in Launch States = 1800 dashboards). In the past Nissan has opened about 200 a day once they start opening dashboards. Useing this information you should be able to estimate when your dashboard will open.

Interesting.

So, 17,000*60% ~ 10,000 people have been allowed to order. Assuming a low 50% conversion rate, that is 5K orders. Could be higher if the conversion rate is higher.

I think they expected 30% and got 43 or so and if so I would expect that to drop to 30s since early orders will have a higher take up rate.

I think you have forgotten the "forgotten 36". I reserved in May, just after Nissan announced they had 10,000 reservations.
My expected order date, late fall/early winter 2011.
All the reservationists in the first 7 states and probably the southeast 7 will get to order before any in the forgotten 36 get to order. Plus post -20k reservation orders will be processed in the first 7 states as well before the forgotten 36. So unless you have a break down of reservationists by these three regions, your calculations are not valid.

 

[defiancecp]

stanley did account for launch markets (60% in launch markets). The first pass I made didn't account for them, that's why I made the corrections. Not sure where that number came from, but I've heard similar numbers mentioned otherwise in this forum.

 

[stanley]

There were dashboards opened after the 27th but it appeared that they may have been, for the most part, catch up orders. For example some people in the EV Project that had January order dates did not get their dashboards opened timely until Ecotality approved them for the Project. Electricians needed to inspect their homes to determine installation costs before approval. So i do not know if Nissan went beyond the 17,000 reservations in January. I doubt they did, but not certain. Another way at looking at your situation would be to calculated 10 days after Nissan begins opening dashboards in February. That would mean that your dashboard may open around the 18th and possibly the 22nd.

The 60% figure for Launch States came fron a Nissan executive. He/she said 55% of all reservations came from the original 5 Launch States. I added 5% to include Texas and Hawaii.The 5% is a guess on my part but I think it is close. Once dashboards begin to open we can compare thei reservation dates to their dashboard opening and futher refine projected dashboard openings.

 

[stanley]

defiancecp,dashboards opened today for February orders. Anandkris reported placing an order today on the thread "post your order details here" with a 7/22 reservation date. Sooooo, it looks like your dashboard will open around Feb 17 give or take a day or so.

 

[stanley]

defiancecp,dashboards opened today for February orders. Anandkris reported placing an order today on the thread "post your order details here" with a 7/22 reservation date. Sooooo, it looks like your dashboard will open around Feb 17 give or take a day or so.

 

[walterbays]

defiancecp,...it looks like your dashboard will open around Feb 17 give or take a day or so.

I hope you're right! I reserved 8/31, 3 days before defiancecp, so by the numbers in this thread my dashboard should open one day earlier. It's a relief that those of us at the end of the reservations don't have the situation you 4/20 reservationists had, where a few minutes difference in reservation time seemingly resulted in months difference in delivery time.