spread of order dates

[defiancecp]

So - was just thinking about this...

There's a HUGE gap in expected order dates, isn't there? What do you guys think will be happening in the meantime? No deliveries, or will the later orders have extremely short waits or something?

Let me explain what I mean---
The latest order date I'm aware of from a launch state is February (does anyone know of a later one?). That's a Tennessee reservation made in early September, and preorders closed in late september, so I don't think there was much time after that.

Now if I understand it correctly, the second wave was delayed back to Fall/Winter 2011, the same time as the 'lost 36' - meaning there are no more orders opening up until then, right?

So that's, what, 7 months with no orders?

Couple that with the expectation that all vehicles will be delivered to launch states by Summer 2011, there's now a short time period where all ordered cars have already been delivered, and no new orders are allowed...

They're telling those late order people to expect 7 months time. But doesn't that mean there's a 7 month period where they wouldn't deliver a single car??

Are they stopping production for a few months or something? That can't be right...

I thought maybe they had pushed the wave back to Fall/Winter 2011 in order to allow for worst-case scenario, with the expectation that some people would be granted early orders if they kept up, but that doesn't seem to be the case (I don't think they'd have delayed the second wave if that was the expectation), so I can't think of why they'd engineer that gap in the timings...

What do you guys think?

 

[rnkepler]

I'm not sure how many people left in the initial launch states have reservations that haven't ordered yet, but Nissan is planning on reopening reservations again in the first half of this year.

 

[defiancecp]

Hm... Are you serious? Surely they wouldn't put those in for immediate delivery would they? If so, I guess that could explain the gap --

But wouldn't kinda be a slap in the face to those guys in the other states? Especially in the states that just got pushed back....


"Yeah, I know you were among the first people to put your money down for a reservation. And yeah, when you did that, you were supposed to be able to order in Dec 2010... But now you get pushed back to Dec 2011. Oh, and we're going to let people who reserve AFTER you were supposed to order get all the way through the process to the point of driving their cars before you even get to order."




That can't be right. Or at least, I hope not.

 

[garygid]

Yes, only the roll-out areas get LEAFs (for now), sorry.

The things you will want to order (Cold Weather Trim) are not available yet.

And the RAQ & Ordering & Delivery system is still getting the "kinks" worked out.

So, you can wait, or request your $99 back.

 

[defiancecp]

I'm not in those states, that just occurred to me to be pretty unpleasant treatment of customers...

So is that really what will be going on in that post-summer period, though? fulfillment of second wave (2011) launch state reservations?

 

[kmp647]

I know one thing at some point there will be unsold cars on th ground

Then the whole thing shifts

That flip can happen in an instant

Waiting list one month

Ground stock the next

It is the car business after all, then it's get em sold an into driveways!

 

[wwhitney]

"Yeah, I know you were among the first people to put your money down for a reservation. And yeah, when you did that, you were supposed to be able to order in Dec 2010... But now you get pushed back to Dec 2011. Oh, and we're going to let people who reserve AFTER you were supposed to order get all the way through the process to the point of driving their cars before you even get to order."

When the orders are reopened in the initial states, just place an order through an address in one of those states, and then arrange to have the car shipped to you.

Cheers, Wayne

 

[defiancecp]

Doesn't impact me, I was just wondering what was going on with that gap... and now I'm pretty dismayed that Nissan would do that.

 

[vkruger]

My guess is that Nissan has a commitment to fill out participation in all the EV projects. I've heard that there are still a few openings in the (1000?) for the San Diego Area and perhaps others in the initial states.

 

[smkettner]

There will not be any gap. At some point the order process will end but there will be no gap.
I will speculate the order process will end when Leaf begins US manufacturing or soon after.

 

[hill]

Yes, only the roll-out areas get LEAFs (for now), sorry.

The things you will want to order (Cold Weather Trim) are not available yet.

And the RAQ & Ordering & Delivery system is still getting the "kinks" worked out. ..........snip

Only Gary can put it that gently. Take the last batch of Leafs that arrived in Fontana for example. Some Leafs came early, some late. Some dashboards say "pending" ... even though they already got their cars! Some say the dealer will call you, and yet the dealer doesn't know the car is ready for you. Yes ... kinks
:? :lol:

 

[SteveInSeattle]

I know one thing at some point there will be unsold cars on th ground

Then the whole thing shifts

That flip can happen in an instant

Waiting list one month

Ground stock the next

It is the car business after all, then it's get em sold an into driveways!

It's going to be a few years before this happens. Maybe when Tennessee gets to full production. And then, yes, you will be able to walk up and buy a Leaf. Although, because of the charger install issue Leafs may never sell exactly like other cars. Why do I think this will take a few years? Because there are clearly more early adopters interested than japan production can satisfy. 50K units for the whole world is inadequate.

 

[defiancecp]

There will not be any gap. At some point the order process will end but there will be no gap.
I will speculate the order process will end when Leaf begins US manufacturing or soon after.

Launch cars delivered in summer.
Next phase doesn't open til fall with expectation of several months til delivery.

That would be by definition a gap...

Unless Nissan has decided, as was stated earlier in the thread, to push another wave of orders in front of the stage 2 guys. Honestly, if that's true, I feel for those guys, that's just not a good situation.

 

[SteveInSeattle]

or worse, stage one orders take all year....

 

[smkettner]

Unless Nissan has decided, as was stated earlier in the thread, to push another wave of orders in front of the stage 2 guys. Honestly, if that's true, I feel for those guys, that's just not a good situation.

In front of? There is no reason it could not be sequential. I mean there might be a week or two of overlap or gap but that is about what we have now.

Time will tell.

 

[evnow]

There will not be any gap. At some point the order process will end but there will be no gap.
I will speculate the order process will end when Leaf begins US manufacturing or soon after.

Launch cars delivered in summer.
Next phase doesn't open til fall with expectation of several months til delivery.

That would be by definition a gap...

I'm finding it difficult to understand what you mean. By Launch cars you mean - cars to be delivered in launch states ?

Anyway, here is what I think might happen.

Everyone who has already ordered and will order in the next couple of months from 7 launch states will get the cars over the course of next 6-8 months. Nissan will open reservations and orders for the launch states in a couple of months after all the reservations in the launch states have been allowed to order. Those new reservations will get to order. By that time Tier 2/3 states will be allowed to order and they will then get 2012 MY Leafs.

I see no gap.

 

[defiancecp]

There will not be any gap. At some point the order process will end but there will be no gap.
I will speculate the order process will end when Leaf begins US manufacturing or soon after.

Launch cars delivered in summer.
Next phase doesn't open til fall with expectation of several months til delivery.

That would be by definition a gap...

I'm finding it difficult to understand what you mean. By Launch cars you mean - cars to be delivered in launch states ?

Anyway, here is what I think might happen.

Everyone who has already ordered and will order in the next couple of months from 7 launch states will get the cars over the course of next 6-8 months. Nissan will open reservations and orders for the launch states in a couple of months after all the reservations in the launch states have been allowed to order. Those new reservations will get to order. By that time Tier 2/3 states will be allowed to order and they will then get 2012 MY Leafs.

I see no gap.

I mean this:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2124

"...Nissan is dedicated to making sure that any reservationist that ordered a car in our first seven launch markets will be driving their Nissan LEAF—at the latest—by the end of Summer 2011."


I agree there's no gap if they re-open orders in launch states before opening orders in tier 2 states. I didn't realize they were doing that when I posted the thread, though.

If, as I had erroneously believed Nissan didn't open new orders in launch states, all orders would be delivered by summer (per above quote), and no new orders would be put in until Fall (per tier 2 delay schedule). Since delivery times are at least 3 months (per Nissan's email to the delayed customers), there wouldn't be a single fall delivery of a Leaf.

Obviously my understanding was missing the bit where Nissan opened up another wave of reservations, letting completely new customers in launch states reserve, order, and take delivery of leafs in that time frame.


Now I'm just kinda saddened that Nissan would let someone completely new reserve a car in 2011 and get it before the tier 2 states (which were initially start their ordering in December 2010) are even allowed to order. It's not the kind of customer treatment I like to see from a company I deal with.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Now I'm just kinda saddened that Nissan would let someone completely new reserve a car in 2011 and get it before the tier 2 states (which were initially start their ordering in December 2010) are even allowed to order. It's not the kind of customer treatment I like to see from a company I deal with.

ya it sucks but its the way of the world. i think Sprint should have rolled out 4G coverages to my area first. just because the company actually providing the service is based in Seattle makes no difference to me and i see no reason why Seattle should be covered before me especially when other areas all over the country have been covered since LAST may and i dont expect to get coverage for another YEAR...

but then again, i dont have sprint and now you know why

 

[charlie1300]

It would make no sense from a business perspective for Nissan to fill all the current reservation orders in the launch states and then process no new orders in those states until they process Phase 2 states orders. The best marketing tool is Leafs driving on the local roads, parked at the coffee shop/supermarket/etc. The point of the roll out would be to continue selling additional cars in the launch states while processing orders for phase 2, and to continue selling cars in phase 1 and 2 while processing orders for the "forgotten 36", my home sweet home.

Will that mean that some customers who were not in the original 20K reservations will get a Leaf before some of the original reservationists in Phase 2 & 3? Yep. That's the way it will work.