Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

[cwerdna]

Considering the number of MNL LEAF owners (including several in posts immediately preceding yours) who have, are going to or are considering returning to ICE/HEV/PHEV, at least until the 2nd Gen. BEVs arrive, I suspect your % is high, especially considering that MNL types tend to be among the earliest adopters and the most dedicated to PEVs.

Actually MNL (esp. some old timers) are the most anti-Nissan/anti-Leaf ... and that has turned some of them to be either anti-plugin or they have gone astray because of lack of alternatives to Leaf (which they don't like). All for well documented reasons.

I think a good part of this is due to the much worse than Nissan led us to believe capacity loss. If you lived in So Cal and lost 4 capacity bars or were down 3 and didn't make the 5 year/60K mile capacity warranty cut, you might be in the anti-Nissan/anti-Leaf camp, as well.

 

[mwalsh]

I blame the insanely low gas prices. For many folks the cheapo gas dwarfs the superior EV driving experience.

It is really unfortunate that just when EVs were getting a foot-hold the ridiculously cheap gas comes like a sledge hammer to the nascent EV industry. Every time I see those big signs of less then $2 gas prices, I shake my head - this is real bad.

And how about if gas goes to $1 a gallon nationally? We may be talking about a glut of new Iranian oil pushing the price of a barrel down to $20. And the other top oil producing nations won't cut back production - at this point they've got to keep sales volume up to maintain their regimes.

 

[abasile]

And how about if gas goes to $1 a gallon nationally? We may be talking about a glut of new Iranian oil pushing the price of a barrel down to $20. And the other top oil producing nations won't cut back production - at this point they've got to keep sales volume up to maintain their regimes.

$1 gas wouldn't last. Even with "free" crude, transporting the crude, refining it, distributing the finished product, and retailing it likely costs well above $1/gallon.

Further, super low oil prices bring back a "conservative" argument in favor of supporting EVs. With much of our North American oil production no longer economical and a virtual halt in related investments, we should switch to EVs for energy security. The problem is that if we go back to importing more from the Middle East, we can't exactly switch back to domestic production the moment prices rise, and in any event we'd rather not have our fortunes tied to Mideast regimes. It's better not to be so dependent on such a volatile commodity.

 

[pchilds]

Come to California! That is not a problem here!

Every time I see those big signs of less then $2 gas prices, I shake my head - this is real bad.

$1.999 for diesel at Cost Co in Temecula, CA, today.

 

[Evoforce]

OPEC is running a designed play. Economic powerhouse players have manipulated many things through time. In the case of oil giants, this will wipe out weaker players and put their assets up for grabs at fire sale prices. They are also trying to stall the solar and electric vehicle revolution. The same types of things have happened in other sectors as well when the rich and powerful want to depress values to bankrupt the weaker while swooping in then to recreate value and make future profits.

 

[Nubo]

OPEC is running a designed play. Economic powerhouse players have manipulated many things through time. In the case of oil giants, this will wipe out weaker players and put their assets up for grabs at fire sale prices. They are also trying to stall the solar and electric vehicle revolution. The same types of things have happened in other sectors as well when the rich and powerful want to depress values to bankrupt the weaker while swooping in then to recreate value and make future profits.

I suspect it's more about short-circuiting alternative energy adoption than strong-arming US shale oil producers. The former is a looming threat to the status-quo and strangling it now might buy them decades. Shale will certainly spring back as soon as the price rises so not sure why OPEC would self-inflict that much pain for such an ephemeral goal.

 

[dgpcolorado]

[Considering the number of MNL LEAF owners (including several in posts immediately preceding yours) who have, are going to or are considering returning to ICE/HEV/PHEV, at least until the 2nd Gen. BEVs arrive, I suspect your % is high, especially considering that MNL types tend to be among the earliest adopters and the most dedicated to PEVs. As to sacrilege, I wasn't aware that we had a official Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith in the EV community, even though we have many amateur inquisitors who are all too happy to stamp out anything they perceive as heresy. Although it's unclear whether or not the survey only refers to plug-ins or includes hybrids, 'EV' includes HEVs: the 'EV' after the 'H' is the giveaway. (Burn the witch! She turned me into a Newt!)...

Since you are seizing on anecdotes as evidence of your thesis, I'll offer a counter-example: I am seriously considering getting rid of my ICEV, since it is so old that it is getting unreliable. I have no intention whatsoever of replacing it with another ICEV. Rather, I am looking at used Teslas, now that prices are finally starting to drop into the realm of "reasonable". And that's after more than four years of LEAF use in a challenging environment for which it was never intended and for which I would never recommend it to others.

I have little patience with anecdotal evidence and I agree with those above who suggest that if the original study includes plug-in hybrids the conclusions are completely invalid when applied to BEVs and BEV owners. And, yes, this is just my opinion, as your original, deliberately inflammatory, thesis above is just your opinion.

My 2¢.

 

[GRA]

[Considering the number of MNL LEAF owners (including several in posts immediately preceding yours) who have, are going to or are considering returning to ICE/HEV/PHEV, at least until the 2nd Gen. BEVs arrive, I suspect your % is high, especially considering that MNL types tend to be among the earliest adopters and the most dedicated to PEVs. As to sacrilege, I wasn't aware that we had a official Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith in the EV community, even though we have many amateur inquisitors who are all too happy to stamp out anything they perceive as heresy. Although it's unclear whether or not the survey only refers to plug-ins or includes hybrids, 'EV' includes HEVs: the 'EV' after the 'H' is the giveaway. (Burn the witch! She turned me into a Newt!)...

Since you are seizing on anecdotes as evidence of your thesis, I'll offer a counter-example: I am seriously considering getting rid of my ICEV, since it is so old that it is getting unreliable. I have no intention whatsoever of replacing it with another ICEV. Rather, I am looking at used Teslas, now that prices are finally starting to drop into the realm of "reasonable". And that's after more than four years of LEAF use in a challenging environment for which it was never intended and for which I would never recommend it to others.

I have little patience with anecdotal evidence and I agree with those above who suggest that if the original study includes plug-in hybrids the conclusions are completely invalid when applied to BEVs and BEV owners. And, yes, this is just my opinion, as your original, deliberately inflammatory, thesis above is just your opinion.

My 2¢.

dgp, ISTM that you are providing exactly the type of anecdotal evidence that tends to confirm my conjecture (and that's all it is, as we agree that making firm conclusions based solely on anecdotal evidence is silly); you are an early adopter, yet aren't considering switching to another affordable BEV, you're thinking of switching to the most expensive (but also the most capable) one, albeit used. Even used with some degradation, a Model S provides far more capability than any affordable BEV today. Any particular reason you aren't content to wait for Bolt/Model 3 etc.?

 

[dgpcolorado]

dgp, ISTM that you are providing exactly the type of anecdotal evidence that tends to confirm my conjecture (and that's all it is, as we agree that making firm conclusions based solely on anecdotal evidence is silly); you are an early adopter, yet aren't considering switching to another affordable BEV, you're thinking of switching to the most expensive (but also the most capable) one, albeit used. Even used with some degradation, a Model S provides far more capability than any affordable BEV today. Any particular reason you aren't content to wait for Bolt/Model 3 etc.?

Health reasons have caused me to reevaluate the wait for the Model 3 (the Bolt and LEAF 2 aren't suitable for long distance use and have never been in consideration). Also, used Tesla prices are finally showing signs of dropping into the realm of reasonable: numerous CPO cars have appeared — and rapidly disappeared — in the $40s and I wouldn't be surprised to see some in the $30s this year.

It is also worth pointing out to non-Coloradans that the $6000 Colorado tax credit applies to used EVs, so long as they have never been registered in Colorado. (I almost pulled the trigger on an S60 last week but it turned out to have been a Colorado car (it was sold less than 24 hours after listing, no surprise). Probably best to wait for the Model 3 reveal in March anyway.) So far as I am aware, ours is the only state tax credit that can be applied to used EVs.

 

[mkjayakumar]

last week I returned my 2nd Leaf, as the lease ended, and bought a used CPO Model S 85 with Autopilot.

Definitely very pricey and stretching quite a bit, but what choice do I have out there? 2016 Leafs are not even in the showrooms yet here.

 

[user 10599]

last week I returned my 2nd Leaf, as the lease ended, and bought a used CPO Model S 85 with Autopilot.

Definitely very pricey and stretching quite a bit, but what choice do I have out there? 2016 Leafs are not even in the showrooms yet here.

At least we can count you in the "Loyal" category for BEVs.

Enjoy your Model S - they are indeed nice cars. When it is time to replace my commute ICEV, I will have to remember to check the CPO pricing for the S as an alternate to a new BEV from the other companies. It is easy to overlook the used market.