Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

[aarond12]

As the article I linked made clear, what people say they plan to do, and what they do often bear little relationship (not that that's a surprise).

What!? Humans say one thing and do another?! IMPOSSIBRU!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evrVQDxPaww

 

[EvansvilleLeaf]

I leased a 12 Leaf anf bought a 14, but I would have been excluded from this because I did not "trade in". Anybody in my position would have been foolish to do so, as the $1000 rebate for early adopters ran out in 2014 whereas all but the earliest (or very expensive short term) leases extended into 2015. So if you wanted to take a free grand off the price you had to buy/lease before your initial lease expoired. I did so, hence when I turned in my Leaf I would not have shown as purchasing another EV even though I did.

 

[Nubo]

... All but the most blinded by love fanbois knew this already...

In my experience, when someone invokes "fanboi" they are generally grinding an axe.

I have enjoyed my 2 EVs for multiple reasons. I intend to keep driving electric though of course that is predicated on being able to find one that meets my circumstances.

I assume you aren't denying that fanbois exist, here and elsewhere? Their prevalence here has certainly decreased over the past few years, as the experience of living with the limitations of current gen affordable BEVs has made the majority of enthusiasts more objective, but there are still fanbois around. If you consider that pointing that out constitutes grinding an axe, then it is. As it is, we're only now moving into the era where affordable BEVs that will (likely) be acceptable to mainstream consumers will soon (well, Tesla-soon) arrive.

Enthusiasts exist. "Fanboy" is a dismissive term. Enthusiasts have reasons that can be argued in honest discourse. "Fanbois" are "blinded by love" and their opinions are assumed invalid.

 

[GRA]

In my experience, when someone invokes "fanboi" they are generally grinding an axe.

I have enjoyed my 2 EVs for multiple reasons. I intend to keep driving electric though of course that is predicated on being able to find one that meets my circumstances.

I assume you aren't denying that fanbois exist, here and elsewhere? Their prevalence here has certainly decreased over the past few years, as the experience of living with the limitations of current gen affordable BEVs has made the majority of enthusiasts more objective, but there are still fanbois around. If you consider that pointing that out constitutes grinding an axe, then it is. As it is, we're only now moving into the era where affordable BEVs that will (likely) be acceptable to mainstream consumers will soon (well, Tesla-soon) arrive.

Enthusiasts exist. "Fanboy" is a dismissive term. Enthusiasts have reasons that can be argued in honest discourse. "Fanbois" are "blinded by love" and their opinions are assumed invalid.

I have little problem with enthusiasts, but when enthusiasm crosses over into blind love you get a fanboi, and I do use the term dismissively. Personally, I consider myself an EV 'supporter', as even 'enthusiast' implies (but doesn't guarantee) a reduced objectivity, although not rising to the level of fanboi (someone who's completely abandoned objectivity).

 

[JeremyW]

Three pages in and nobody is going mention the irony in the guy who doesn't own an EV posting articles about not being loyal to the plug. :roll:

 

[abasile]

we're only now moving into the era where affordable BEVs that will (likely) be acceptable to mainstream consumers will soon (well, Tesla-soon) arrive.

I am impressed by what I've seen of the upcoming Chevy Bolt, with its announced 60 kWh battery and price not terribly higher than what we paid for our 2011 LEAF. The Bolt won't have the Supercharging network or upscale appeal of the Tesla Model 3, but if the Model 3 ends up significantly delayed or more expensive than promised, then the Bolt may end up selling well.

Still, the Bolt represents no more than incremental progress, as most consumers will likely eschew it in favor of much cheaper ICE models. (Remember the LEAF vs. Versa comparisons?) For this reason, I think Tesla's approach of starting at the top of the market and working their way down, while marketing electric drivetrains as a "premium" feature, makes the most sense.

 

[smkettner]

Three pages in and nobody is going mention the irony in the guy who doesn't own an EV posting articles about not being loyal to the plug. :roll:

I would be interested how loyal he is to BMW? What does he call it 'Fanboi'? He may need to check in the mirror.

 

[user 10599]

One factor to remember is that many of the ones turning in the cars now are doing so because lease terms are up. And sadly, the next generation with significantly longer ranges aren't here yet. I would like to replace on of our ICEs with another BEV. But there isn't one suitable without shelling out the big bucks for a Tesla. Now, if something happened to our Leaf so I needed to replace it, then I would likely get another BEV even though they do not yet have the desired range.

I suspect that some of those trading in for ICE are attempting to buy time for the next round of longer range EVs. Example, if family has one old ICE they own and they also one BEV coming off lease, I can see them deciding to replace the BEV with a new ICE and then when the new BEVs are available, replacing the old ICE with a new BEV.

BTW - If someone trades a BEV for an ICE, wouldn't that make it an ICE'd BEV? :lol:

 

[GRA]

Three pages in and nobody is going mention the irony in the guy who doesn't own an EV posting articles about not being loyal to the plug. :roll:

See 'EV supporter rather than EV enthusiast,' above.

 

[GRA]

we're only now moving into the era where affordable BEVs that will (likely) be acceptable to mainstream consumers will soon (well, Tesla-soon) arrive.

I am impressed by what I've seen of the upcoming Chevy Bolt, with its announced 60 kWh battery and price not terribly higher than what we paid for our 2011 LEAF. The Bolt won't have the Supercharging network or upscale appeal of the Tesla Model 3, but if the Model 3 ends up significantly delayed or more expensive than promised, then the Bolt may end up selling well.

Still, the Bolt represents no more than incremental progress, as most consumers will likely eschew it in favor of much cheaper ICE models. (Remember the LEAF vs. Versa comparisons?) For this reason, I think Tesla's approach of starting at the top of the market and working their way down, while marketing electric drivetrains as a "premium" feature, makes the most sense.

I'm fairly impressed with the Bolt as well, but I don't know if it will be enough to 'cross the chasm'. It's certainly a lot closer to meeting the needs/desires of mainstream consumers than 1st gen affordable BEVs. IMO the main thing will be perceived value as a used car; until BEVs have reasonable (and inexpensive) lives after their first owners, I think it will be difficult for them to achieve significant market share. After all, the average owner of a new car (in the U.S.) now keeps it for just under 6.5 years, but the average age of the LDV fleet is almost 11.5 years now.

BEVs have to be seen (or at least perceived) to retain adequate utility beyond their original owner, without requiring expensive 'maintenance' (battery replacement) to be viable. Hopefully, an initial 200 miles EPA, which equates to say 100-133 miles year-round no worries range depending on climate when new, and less at end-of-life, will be enough. But it also has to be recognized that the people who buy used cars are lower income and normally renters, who are less likely to be able to charge at home and who may only have one car, so public and private charging infrastructure will also be crucial. Never forgetting the main determinant of PEV viability, the price of gas.

 

[GRA]

One factor to remember is that many of the ones turning in the cars now are doing so because lease terms are up. And sadly, the next generation with significantly longer ranges aren't here yet. I would like to replace on of our ICEs with another BEV. But there isn't one suitable without shelling out the big bucks for a Tesla. Now, if something happened to our Leaf so I needed to replace it, then I would likely get another BEV even though they do not yet have the desired range.

I suspect that some of those trading in for ICE are attempting to buy time for the next round of longer range EVs. Example, if family has one old ICE they own and they also one BEV coming off lease, I can see them deciding to replace the BEV with a new ICE and then when the new BEVs are available, replacing the old ICE with a new BEV.

BTW - If someone trades a BEV for an ICE, wouldn't that make it an ICE'd BEV? :lol:

There's no question that many people coming off lease are marking time with an ICE/HEV/PHEV for now.

 

[GRA]

Three pages in and nobody is going mention the irony in the guy who doesn't own an EV posting articles about not being loyal to the plug. :roll:

I would be interested how loyal he is to BMW? What does he call it 'Fanboi'? He may need to check in the mirror.

You've obviously missed my comments stating my opinion of the value for money of the i3 versus almost any of the other affordable BEVs, and the same for the i3REx versus say the Volt, if you're accusing me of being a BMW fanboi!

 

[user 10599]

EV used values do suffer from our society's disposable lifestyle. It boggles my mind how so many will gladly pay $25k+ for a new car but refuse to pay $6k to double the lifespan because it costs too much. Buying a new car, then buying another one after 3 years costs a lot more than buying once, then keeping it for 6 or 9. So what it if costs $6k to extend it to the 9 years. You still come out way ahead financially.

Until the general public develops a higher degree of familiarity and comfort with EVs, the used car buyer isn't going to choose one unless it is a real low price. And this is compounded by concern over why the previous owner would let go of a good car for so little - must mean there is something wrong with it. So EV enthusiasts dumping their basically good gen 1 cars prematurely are adversely impacting EV adoption.

I would have hoped that more of the EV owners would think more long range environmentally and realize the benefits of keeping cars longer.

 

[LeftieBiker]

It boggles my mind how so many will gladly pay $25k+ for a new car but refuse to pay $6k to double the lifespan because it costs too much. Buying a new car, then buying another one after 3 years costs a lot more than buying once, then keeping it for 6 or 9. So what it if costs $6k to extend it to the 9 years. You still come out way ahead financially.

That isn't always the case. If I could scrape up the cash to buy a new car - with 0% interest for 72 months, mind you - I certainly wouldn't be able to keep on doing it every three or even 5 years. My residual, plus fees and sales tax, would cost me $15k to buy my current leased car. I literally couldn't afford to buy a new pack as well.

 

[user 10599]

True - that is why I said 'so many'. Not everyone engages in this behavior or can afford to. Some are true environmental friends.

I recall shortly after buying my Leaf in 2013, I was rather upset with the local newspaper running an article indicating something like 90% of the EV buyers had annual incomes over $100k. I figured that news put more of a target on me when driving it. But at this point, that demographic factor means that a lot of the buyers from that timeframe have the type of disposable incomes, and hence the disposable attitudes, that result in a rather high rate of dumping their perfectly good cars in favor of the next blingy thing out there. They are not making the most sound financial decisions and that is adversely impacting the used prices and hence the perception that the cars lose a lot of value in a short period which suggests they are junk. There are a lot of them out there.

 

[JeremyW]

So EV enthusiasts dumping their basically good gen 1 cars prematurely are adversely impacting EV adoption.

Don't blame early adopters for dumping their cars, Nissan's incompetence is a lot more to blame.

Better cars are already here and they are not Nissans. Plus, we were told that the battery would last way longer than reality, even in cooler climates. From what we've started to see, even the 2015's aren't any better.

In southern California, how is buying a $6000 battery every 3-4 years to restore range acceptable? Because that's reality.

Besides, a lot of these cheap used cars are former leased cars. It's Nissan who's losing the most $ on these. I don't see how it's affecting adoption, in fact I think the opposite is true: it's getting cheap local run-about cars in the hands of those who don't need range.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I recall shortly after buying my Leaf in 2013, I was rather upset with the local newspaper running an article indicating something like 90% of the EV buyers had annual incomes over $100k.

This is a very predictable consequence of the higher prices charged for electric cars. (I suspect they didn't count electric scooters and bicycles.) Once leases became affordable, I think that this started to change...

 

[GetOffYourGas]

I recall shortly after buying my Leaf in 2013, I was rather upset with the local newspaper running an article indicating something like 90% of the EV buyers had annual incomes over $100k.

This is a very predictable consequence of the higher prices charged for electric cars. (I suspect they didn't count electric scooters and bicycles.) Once leases became affordable, I think that this started to change...

It's also somewhat a result of the tax credit structure. How many people making under $100k pay $7500 in federal income taxes every year? So they either pass on the car, or lease it. And leases are designed to be disposable.

 

[Zythryn]

It's also somewhat a result of the tax credit structure. How many people making under $100k pay $7500 in federal income taxes every year? So they either pass on the car, or lease it. And leases are designed to be disposable.

More than the number of people making over $100k.
It takes about $55k in annual income to come to a $7500 tax liability.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

It's also somewhat a result of the tax credit structure. How many people making under $100k pay $7500 in federal income taxes every year? So they either pass on the car, or lease it. And leases are designed to be disposable.

More than the number of people making over $100k.
It takes about $55k in annual income to come to a $7500 tax liability.

With all of the other deductions available, I don't come close to paying that much. For example, anyone who owns a house can deduct the interest paid on their mortgage. And then you can deduct more for dependents like a spouse or children.

And if you don't get any of those major deductions, you are left with single people who rent. That is not a great demographic to market a short-range BEV.