Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

[roguenode]

More than the number of people making over $100k.
It takes about $55k in annual income to come to a $7500 tax liability.

With all of the other deductions available, I don't come close to paying that much. For example, anyone who owns a house can deduct the interest paid on their mortgage. And then you can deduct more for dependents like a spouse or children.

And if you don't get any of those major deductions, you are left with single people who rent. That is not a great demographic to market a short-range BEV.

I realize you are speaking in generalizations, but without data to draw on, I'll at least submit my anecdotal experience. I make under $100k/yr, am a homeowner, and with deductions still pay over $7500 annually in Federal taxes. I don't know how many others might be in a similar situation, Just pointing out there are Leaf owners outside of your assertion.

On the topic of EV owners not keeping the cars long-term. Sub-par winter range, battery degradation over time, and declining resale value are the reasons why my Leaf ownership will be the shortest of any car I've owned. I'll likely replace it with the Bolt. The model 3 is tempting to wait for, but I'm concerned about cost and timeframe, particularly as LEAF resale values are likely to get even worse once the BOLT is available.

 

[mkjayakumar]

I blame the insanely low gas prices. For many folks the cheapo gas dwarfs the superior EV driving experience.

It is really unfortunate that just when EVs were getting a foot-hold the ridiculously cheap gas comes like a sledge hammer to the nascent EV industry. Every time I see those big signs of less then $2 gas prices, I shake my head - this is real bad.

 

[TomT]

Come to California! That is not a problem here!

Every time I see those big signs of less then $2 gas prices, I shake my head - this is real bad.

 

[GRA]

Every time I see those big signs of less then $2 gas prices, I shake my head - this is real bad.

Come to California! That is not a problem here!

But not that much higher (Note Norcal vs. SoCal). they bottomed out at the station I usually buy gas at $2.30, before going up to $2.46 over about a 2 week period. With the recent collapse of oil prices, they've started down again ($2.40 today). If Exxon's Torrance refinery ever comes back on line, even you guys might make it down to $2/gal.

 

[user 10599]

Yes, recent gas prices are part of the issue. As is the lease terms forcing people out who can't or won't pay Nissan's unrealistic residual. I didn't say what I put forward was the only reason, just contributory. For a lot of the people in the category I'm referring to (over $100k/year), that residual vs. resale value isn't a material factor.

And yes, there are other nicer EV options out there now. I'm doubtful they will be free from significant battery degredation over time. Since they aren't first out of the gate, they have learned from Nissan's mistakes and aren't making such lofty claims until they have proven tech.

I'm a little perplexed by the statements of poor quality. I've been very happy with my Leaf and it has been very reliable. True, it is not a MB or BMW, but after incentives, it was not in that price range either. If you are referring to battery degredation, I think that will continue to be a problem for the industry for quite a while. The solution for that is battery replacement.

And there is a good counter point that the depressed resale value makes it more viable for lower income shoppers to get in on EVs. But that is only a net win if the original owner does get another EV to replace it. Sadly, as the OP's article noted, that is not happening at a real great rate.

If they are buying ICE now because gas is suddenly much cheaper, they may get burned if it doesn't stay cheap. I understand a temporary shift out so they can sell an older ICE once the longer range EVs arrive. Shoot, if I had to replace my daily commuter now, it would be for a PHEV like the i3, Volt or C350 because my commute is now longer than what the current EVs support. I want to hold out until the EVs get to where I need, then we will have 2 EVs in the family.

 

[dm33]

We have a 2013 LEAF. Our lease is extended until May. My understanding from other posts here was that Nissan is no longer offering or allowing extensions on leases. Having exhausted a search for 2015 and 2016 lease and purchase prices as well as used LEAF prices, we had decided they were all expensive and were about to order or purchase an ICE. Plan to keep it 3 years and hopefully not lose our shirt. 3yrs later Bolt, LEAF 2.0, Model 3 should be out.

Just for kicks, to make sure every stone was turned, I called back NMAC to make sure they were NOT offering lease extensions.

Much to my surprise I received a more complex answer.

1) I was told that in general, Nissan is not offering lease extensions on any vehicles... except...
2) I was told that lease extensions are available for LEAF leases, but only one extension... except...
3) For some cases, like ours, they WILL allow the extension to be extended to become a 24 month lease extension. It doesn't extend an additional two years from now, but from the original lease end date.

They did not explain what the criteria was for this longer lease extension. I don't know if its based on year, time of the year when the lease was made (May) or something about the financials of the lease itself. But in any case, this is HUGE news to us.

This has introduced a big twist into our plan that we were about to execute on. At a minimum, we no longer have to get another vehicle by May. However, I'm still not so sure that even another year will be enough to have these cars become available in NC. The 2016 Volt was released around September and its still not available here. Maybe February or March. Likewise the Bolt may make a token December 2016 release in CA, but I assume it will take months before it shows up in NC. Probably mid 2017.

The LEAF probably won't show up until summer or more likely fall 2017 after a reveal right before the Bolt ships.
Model 3 I'm figuring 2 years from the March reveal, so I'm predicting 3/2018.
Still considering buying an ICE and wait until all the cars are out and kinks worked through. Would hate for them to run late and we still end up without a car.

 

[user 10599]

Good update that Nissan may be willing to do some lease extensions. Of course, it would be better if they would simply make that a routine, straightforward option.

I certainly understand the dilemma. If the extension won't get you thru until the longer range ones come out, an ICE would be tempting as a stopgap.

I would hope Nissan realizes before too long that not extending leases will force people out, likely into another brand, when some of them would have otherwise held onto their Leaf until Leaf 2.0 came out.

 

[LeftieBiker]

My lease is also up in May, on my 2013 SV. If I can extend one more year (not two, I guess, as I'm on a one year extension now) that would get me by until the 2016 goes from the New Hot Thing to "leftover stock that must be moved!"

 

[dm33]

I would hope Nissan realizes before too long that not extending leases will force people out, likely into another brand, when some of them would have otherwise held onto their Leaf until Leaf 2.0 came out.

I have wondered if allowing another year extension implies that LEAF 2.0 will be out before May of 2017. On the other hand, I thought that when we extended the first time. I had hoped LEAF 2.0 would be out now or at least rumored enough to be coming out this fall.

 

[evnow]

Via GCR:

Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101752_electric-car-buyers-not-as-loyal-to-the-plug-as-they-think

Good use of data / bad use of data ?

I'd say bad use of data. Using "Electric Car" in the title and including all plugins is bad. If it includes non-plugin hybrids too, this is a sacrilege.

Take pure BEV, I'm fairly sure the loyalty is very, very high (>75%).

 

[kubel]

Good luck getting through to NMAC to request an extension. 20-minutes now on hold (though I'm calling to confirm I turned in my lease).

 

[GRA]

Via GCR:

Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101752_electric-car-buyers-not-as-loyal-to-the-plug-as-they-think

Good use of data / bad use of data ?

I'd say bad use of data. Using "Electric Car" in the title and including all plugins is bad. If it includes non-plugin hybrids too, this is a sacrilege.

Take pure BEV, I'm fairly sure the loyalty is very, very high (>75%).

Considering the number of MNL LEAF owners (including several in posts immediately preceding yours) who have, are going to or are considering returning to ICE/HEV/PHEV, at least until the 2nd Gen. BEVs arrive, I suspect your % is high, especially considering that MNL types tend to be among the earliest adopters and the most dedicated to PEVs. As to sacrilege, I wasn't aware that we had a official Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith in the EV community, even though we have many amateur inquisitors who are all too happy to stamp out anything they perceive as heresy. Although it's unclear whether or not the survey only refers to plug-ins or includes hybrids, 'EV' includes HEVs: the 'EV' after the 'H' is the giveaway. (Burn the witch! She turned me into a Newt!)

Meanwhile, in Europe (via GCC):

Toyota hybrid sales in Europe up 17% in 2015, representing 24% of total TME sales

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/01/20160114-tme.html

Despite the lowest gasoline prices in Europe in 5 years, Toyota Motor Europe’s (TME) sales of hybrid vehicles continued their 5-year increase to reach 209,000 units for the full year 2015, up 17% year-on-year. . . .

"With sales of both the new generation Prius and the new RAV4 hybrid about to start, the irreversible drive towards ever more hybrid sales in Europe will continue in 2016. We aim to reach more than 400,000 sales by 2020."

—Johan van Zyl, President and CEO of Toyota Motor Europe . . .

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Although it's unclear whether or not the survey only refers to plug-ins or includes hybrids, 'EV' includes HEVs: the 'EV' after the 'H' is the giveaway. (Burn the witch! She turned me into a Newt!)

This is exactly the reason why I think it's reasonable to question whether this is a misuse / abuse of data. If they are including HEVs in their totals, then they have no right to refer to loyalty to the plug. If the truth is that HEV owners are switching to ICEVs, then it has zero to do with anyone's loyalty to the plug, since neither car has a plug at all. Both are fueled entirely by gasoline, even if one of them has a (small) electric motor to help accelerate/decelerate the car.

 

[evnow]

Considering the number of MNL LEAF owners (including several in posts immediately preceding yours) who have, are going to or are considering returning to ICE/HEV/PHEV, at least until the 2nd Gen. BEVs arrive, I suspect your % is high, especially considering that MNL types tend to be among the earliest adopters and the most dedicated to PEVs.

Actually MNL (esp. some old timers) are the most anti-Nissan/anti-Leaf ... and that has turned some of them to be either anti-plugin or they have gone astray because of lack of alternatives to Leaf (which they don't like). All for well documented reasons.

Although it's unclear whether or not the survey only refers to plug-ins or includes hybrids, 'EV' includes HEVs: the 'EV' after the 'H' is the giveaway. (Burn the witch! She turned me into a Newt!)

Bad naming. It should really be called ICE-EV Hybrid, I guess. ICE is assumed so, it is called h-EV.

This is like a mule - a hybrid of horse and donkey. When talking about horses, you shouldn't include mules.

 

[GRA]

Considering the number of MNL LEAF owners (including several in posts immediately preceding yours) who have, are going to or are considering returning to ICE/HEV/PHEV, at least until the 2nd Gen. BEVs arrive, I suspect your % is high, especially considering that MNL types tend to be among the earliest adopters and the most dedicated to PEVs.

Actually MNL (esp. some old timers) are the most anti-Nissan/anti-Leaf ... and that has turned some of them to be either anti-plugin or they have gone astray because of lack of alternatives to Leaf (which they don't like). All for well documented reasons.

Anti-Nissan/LEAF, sure, but most of them aren't opting for anyone else's affordable BEVs either. The same process is happening with other brands' BEVs, although not yet at the same rate as most of those cars were introduced after the LEAF (and many have TMS), so they aren't suffering the same level of degradation yet. Plus many weren't sold in hot weather states.

Although it's unclear whether or not the survey only refers to plug-ins or includes hybrids, 'EV' includes HEVs: the 'EV' after the 'H' is the giveaway. (Burn the witch! She turned me into a Newt!)

Bad naming. It should really be called ICE-EV Hybrid, I guess. ICE is assumed so, it is called h-EV.

This is like a mule - a hybrid of horse and donkey. When talking about horses, you shouldn't include mules.

"Hybrid: something (as a power plant, vehicle, or electronic circuit) that has two different types of components performing essentially the same function." Mules are hybrid (speaking genetically) pack/riding animals, horses are also pack/riding animals. Hybrid describes vehicles using one or more power sources of different types just fine, cf. diesel-electric locomotives or submarines; that some or all of this power propels the vehicle through the action of an electric motor makes it a hybrid EV.

 

[GRA]

Although it's unclear whether or not the survey only refers to plug-ins or includes hybrids, 'EV' includes HEVs: the 'EV' after the 'H' is the giveaway. (Burn the witch! She turned me into a Newt!)

This is exactly the reason why I think it's reasonable to question whether this is a misuse / abuse of data. If they are including HEVs in their totals, then they have no right to refer to loyalty to the plug. If the truth is that HEV owners are switching to ICEVs, then it has zero to do with anyone's loyalty to the plug, since neither car has a plug at all. Both are fueled entirely by gasoline, even if one of them has a (small) electric motor to help accelerate/decelerate the car.

If they include HEVs you are correct, but we don't know that they do. As I mentioned, the original article as written is ambiguous, but the general tone implies plug-ins only. Absent tracking down the actual data or getting a clarification from the source, we can only speculate. OTOH, it's obvious from here and other BEV forums that there is considerable defection from short-range BEVs (if only in the short-term in many cases), so anecdotal data tends to confirm the claims in the article. Hardly conclusive, but indicative.

 

[abasile]

Actually MNL (esp. some old timers) are the most anti-Nissan/anti-Leaf ... and that has turned some of them to be either anti-plugin or they have gone astray because of lack of alternatives to Leaf (which they don't like).

Anti-Nissan, certainly. But anti-plugin? I'm not aware of MNL members becoming "anti-plugin" even if they do end up in an ICE; many would switch back if the range and costs were favorable. But I haven't been so consistent in reading this forum.

...it's obvious from here and other BEV forums that there is considerable defection from short-range BEVs (if only in the short-term in many cases), so anecdotal data tends to confirm the claims in the article. Hardly conclusive, but indicative.

Yes. It's good that you are calling out "short-range BEVs". Because it appears that the defection rate from Tesla cars and from PHEVs is far lower. It's hard to blame people for "defecting" when their car can't meet their basic requirements. Still others, like myself, have held onto LEAFs that no longer meet the initial requirements yet still have some functional value.

 

[mjblazin]

I took it as example that people either do not understand own driving habits, how much flexibility they really have to adjust those habits or that the technology that really has not changed in 50 or 60 years. Maybe those of us that bought used at terrific prices have the advantage understanding exactly what the car can and cannot do and how we can use it. Also resale value does not matter to many of us that habitually buy used because the next destination of our cars is usually scrap yard. You run/maintain it until one day you come down to parking spot and it is upside down/wheels in air having given up the ghost.

I expect by the time we need to replace our used EVs, the better technologies will have won out, been around for a few years and then we can buy those cars as used vehicles.

 

[GRA]

...it's obvious from here and other BEV forums that there is considerable defection from short-range BEVs (if only in the short-term in many cases), so anecdotal data tends to confirm the claims in the article. Hardly conclusive, but indicative.

Yes. It's good that you are calling out "short-range BEVs". Because it appears that the defection rate from Tesla cars and from PHEVs is far lower. It's hard to blame people for "defecting" when their car can't meet their basic requirements. Still others, like myself, have held onto LEAFs that no longer meet the initial requirements yet still have some functional value.

The bolded quote was exactly the point I was making; people aren't leaving Teslas or PHEVs, because those cars can and will be able to meet people's basic needs for years. Further 'proof' of people defecting from short range BEVs (until longer-range affordable BEVs come along, is that the Tesla Model S was the best selling BEV in the U.S. last year, despite a base price more than twice that of the lowest priced affordable BEV. Some of that is undoubtedly due to cachet, and the people buying new Teslas are less price-sensitive in any case, but a low price is poor value if the car can't do what you need it to.

 

[cwerdna]

I haven't read much of this thread, but I started http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=21280 as a place for people to post stories (possibly their own) of those w/Leafs or other EVs/PHEVs who are going back to ICEV.