Chevrolet Bolt & Bolt EUV

[lorenfb]

The statements are odd that the driver "heard" but did not "see" a specific movie which could have been an audio recording.

Right, so the driver could have been utilizing ANY hand-held device, i.e. given his expressed confidence in the Tesla's autopilot, even just playing sounds (an iPod), which potentially resulted in his distraction and the proximate
cause of the accident.

Tesla Motors Inc. said it is not possible to watch videos on the Model S touch screen. There was no reference to the movie in initial police reports.

So! We'll just have to wait for the final and factual report.

Bottom Line: One valid conclusion can be made, though: The greater the freedom from controlling any aspect
of a moving vehicle, e.g. adaptive cruise control, "autopilot", the greater is the probability of a potential
distraction resulting in an unsafe driving condition arising.

 

[GRA]

The statements are odd that the driver "heard" but did not "see" a specific movie which could have been an audio recording.

Right, so the driver could have been utilizing ANY hand-held device, i.e. given his expressed confidence in the Tesla's autopilot, even just playing sounds (an iPod), which potentially resulted in his distraction and the proximate
cause of the accident.

Tesla Motors Inc. said it is not possible to watch videos on the Model S touch screen. There was no reference to the movie in initial police reports.

So! We'll just have to wait for the final and factual report.

Bottom Line: One valid conclusion can be made, though: The greater the freedom from controlling any aspect
of a moving vehicle, e.g. adaptive cruise control, "autopilot", the greater is the probability of a potential
distraction resulting in an unsafe driving condition arising.

As I've mentioned in another thread, the Florida Hwy Patrol confirmed there was a portable DVD player found in the car. They would know what if any DVD was in it, but it does explain how the driver could have heard but not seen a movie playing, whether Harry Potter or other. He obviously couldn't have heard it before the crash, so if he did it must have been afterwards.

 

[dgpcolorado]

My sense is that as longer range EVs become the norm, public L2 charging will become less necessary and fast charging, of some sort, will take over the public charging space.

I can only hope your sense is wrong. There is little doubt in my mind that 100 mile EVs will hold a significant portion of the market for years to come making destination charging critical. Sadly, only a handful of employers realize this. This has to change

I'm talking about L2 en route charging, not destination or employer charging. Home and destination charging at L2 speeds figures to be the norm for years to come.

Even Tesla has a huge program for destination charging: they will give High Power Wall Connnectors (HPWC) away for free to hotels and similar destinations who will install them for visitor/patron use. And they plan to have many more of those than Superchargers. Here is a map of current destination HPWC charge stations:

https://www.teslamotors.com/findus#...24.38999999999999?search=destination charger,

I disagree with you "that 100 mile EVs will hold a significant portion of the market for years to come". I think they will be obsolete in just a few years. We shall see.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

My sense is that as longer range EVs become the norm, public L2 charging will become less necessary and fast charging, of some sort, will take over the public charging space.

I can only hope your sense is wrong. There is little doubt in my mind that 100 mile EVs will hold a significant portion of the market for years to come making destination charging critical. Sadly, only a handful of employers realize this. This has to change

I'm talking about L2 en route charging, not destination or employer charging. Home and destination charging at L2 speeds figures to be the norm for years to come.

Even Tesla has a huge program for destination charging: they will give High Power Wall Connnectors (HPWC) away for free to hotels and similar destinations who will install them for visitor/patron use. And they plan to have many more of those than Superchargers. Here is a map of current destination HPWC charge stations:

https://www.teslamotors.com/findus#...24.38999999999999?search=destination charger,

I disagree with you "that 100 mile EVs will hold a significant portion of the market for years to come". I think they will be obsolete in just a few years. We shall see.

thanks for clarification! yeah, I would tend to agree with you except that we are starting to see an emergence of higher power L2's that can provide a decent range boost at places where the stop is expected to be in the 1-2 hour range. As far as 100 mile EVs going away? That would be an enormous marketing blunder. Fact of the matter; the fed cred will be gone for most in the next 2 years and the great predominance of the car buying public does NOT think $35,000 is affordable

 

[smkettner]

...... and the great predominance of the car buying public does NOT think $35,000 is affordable

Yes but not much above the average new car at $33,560.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...action-price-3-kbb-kelley-blue-book/26690191/

 

[edatoakrun]

...... and the great predominance of the car buying public does NOT think $35,000 is affordable

Yes but not much above the average new car at $33,560.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...action-price-3-kbb-kelley-blue-book/26690191/

That's the average for all new vehicles, including expensive trucks, SUVs and luxury cars.

The average sales price for an ICEV compact/midsize car, competitive with the Bolt or Tesla 3, is probably just over half that amount.

Which is why either or both of them could have trouble selling, depending on the price of gas and the level of BEV sales incentives, when they are actually available to buyers.

 

[Firetruck41]

The new cars I would cross shop would be in the mid 20s to low 30s. Around here, would venture to guess I am not that far from the norm in that respect.

 

[dgpcolorado]

thanks for clarification! yeah, I would tend to agree with you except that we are starting to see an emergence of higher power L2's that can provide a decent range boost at places where the stop is expected to be in the 1-2 hour range. As far as 100 mile EVs going away? That would be an enormous marketing blunder. Fact of the matter; the fed cred will be gone for most in the next 2 years and the great predominance of the car buying public does NOT think $35,000 is affordable

My assumption is that prices for typical 200 mile EVs will decrease over the next five to ten years.

 

[evnow]

The average sales price for an ICEV compact/midsize car, competitive with the Bolt or Tesla 3, is probably just over half that amount.

I don't think Model 3 is supposed to compete with ICE that is $17k. All along they say they want to compete with A4 & BMW 3 series.

 

[NeilBlanchard]

The Bolt EV is virtually the same price as the high end Leaf models and e-Golf. So, it is a much better value, and it would likely push the price down for all EV's with less range.

 

[Valdemar]

The Bolt EV is virtually the same price as the high end Leaf models and e-Golf. So, it is a much better value, and it would likely push the price down for all EV's with less range.

Well, the Leafs can already be had close to 10k below MSRP before the tax rebate and state incentives, one has to wonder how much lower will the go?

https://www.costamesanissan.com/new/Nissan/2016-Nissan-Leaf-65268e3a0a0e0a6b3c8b741fa6b23950.htm

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

thanks for clarification! yeah, I would tend to agree with you except that we are starting to see an emergence of higher power L2's that can provide a decent range boost at places where the stop is expected to be in the 1-2 hour range. As far as 100 mile EVs going away? That would be an enormous marketing blunder. Fact of the matter; the fed cred will be gone for most in the next 2 years and the great predominance of the car buying public does NOT think $35,000 is affordable

My assumption is that prices for typical 200 mile EVs will decrease over the next five to ten years.

yeah, I'm kinda thinking that autonomous driving expenses will buoy the price for years to come but even I (the cheapest guy in the room) would pay big for "someone else" to drive!

but we have to go a long way before most people consider EVs affordable. I get this "the average new car costs $33,000" crap all the time but I sold cars and believe me, its a completely different World from "the average" besides who decided that the average price paid for a car automatically qualified it as affordable or acceptable?

 

[LeftieBiker]

I think that a lot of that "average new car price" crap comes from leasing. Toyota offers a $179 per month lease on the Prius PHEV, we lease one, and Bingo! We've "bought" a $28k car. Too bad we don't actually own it.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I think that a lot of that "average new car price" crap comes from leasing. Toyota offers a $179 per month lease on the Prius PHEV, we lease one, and Bingo! We've "bought" a $28k car. Too bad we don't actually own it.

i think leasing is a great option for people who are simply less prepared to buy a car. I would have leased for my SO but her credit is crap plus she didn't want to lease. still does not understand the up side of it despite watching me lease over and over. So she opted for a lesser car (Yaris) that was used (2 years old) to get payments into a range she could afford (unfortunately I had to put it in my name again because of her credit) and now she is complaining 3½ years later because its needing relatively expensive basic maintenance done. tires are in dire need (i live on the edge and told her she should have changed them 4 months ago :shock: )

But she gets 2 year old car that has 31,000 miles on it. I put $2500 down and her payments are $272 a month for 5 years.

I lease brand new LEAF, zero down $245 a month for 3 years. At the end of 3 years, I will turn in and more than likely lease again since it looks like longer range options will not be out there and I won't buy until they are and I have to have something on the streets in the next 5 months so looks like 30 kwh is best option I have since I am pretty sure the Bolt is still at least a year away in our area.


now some will say that in less than 2 years, she will own the car and have no payments. I say by the time the car is paid off, she will be AT LEAST a year past the time she is ready for a change and it will be gone with new payments AND and another down payment in its place. This time I will not be making her down payment or carrying her loan.

after all this; she still thinks (as most do) that buying is a better deal. like all "answers" she is both right and wrong but undoubtedly wrong in her case.

 

[WetEV]

"average new car price"

The mean vs the median new car price would be an interesting discussion. I'd expect that the median car (half sold for more, half sold for less) would be a lot less than the average (mean) car price (total all transactions/divide by number of transactions). The reason is that very expensive cars raise the average a lot. I can't find a published median car price. I'd bet it is a lot lower than the $33k average price. Guess more like $23k.

Nissan's average price is $27,559. Does not include "applied consumer incentives", so actual average price is lower still.

http://mediaroom.kbb.com/2016-07-01-New-Car-Transaction-Prices-Climb-2-Percent-Year-Over-Year-In-June-2016-According-To-Kelley-Blue-Book

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

"average new car price"

The mean vs the median new car price would be an interesting discussion. I'd expect that the median car (half sold for more, half sold for less) would be a lot less than the average (mean) car price (total all transactions/divide by number of transactions). The reason is that very expensive cars raise the average a lot. I can't find a published median car price. I'd bet it is a lot lower than the $33k average price. Guess more like $23k.

Nissan's average price is $27,559. Does not include "applied consumer incentives", so actual average price is lower still.

http://mediaroom.kbb.com/2016-07-01-New-Car-Transaction-Prices-Climb-2-Percent-Year-Over-Year-In-June-2016-According-To-Kelley-Blue-Book

agreed! my car experience was a few years ago so I got in contact with some people I know still in the biz and they finally got back to me with figures not counting used cars they had cars

$20k or less (wanted better breakdown but...) 25%

$25K (assuming this is 20,001 to 25) 28%

$30k; 17%

so we have 70% of cars that don't even reach the average.

FYI; 60% of the trucks they sell are more than $40,000

 

[LeftieBiker]

i think leasing is a great option for people who are simply less prepared to buy a car.

I wasn't deriding leasing (we both lease), but was instead suggesting that leasing a car shouldn't be counted statistically as "buying" it. If they want to do that, they should subtract the residual from the "purchase" price.

 

[GRA]

"average new car price"

The mean vs the median new car price would be an interesting discussion. I'd expect that the median car (half sold for more, half sold for less) would be a lot less than the average (mean) car price (total all transactions/divide by number of transactions). The reason is that very expensive cars raise the average a lot. I can't find a published median car price. I'd bet it is a lot lower than the $33k average price. Guess more like $23k.

Nissan's average price is $27,559. Does not include "applied consumer incentives", so actual average price is lower still.

http://mediaroom.kbb.com/2016-07-01-New-Car-Transaction-Prices-Climb-2-Percent-Year-Over-Year-In-June-2016-According-To-Kelley-Blue-Book

agreed! my car experience was a few years ago so I got in contact with some people I know still in the biz and they finally got back to me with figures not counting used cars they had cars

$20k or less (wanted better breakdown but...) 25%

$25K (assuming this is 20,001 to 25) 28%

$30k; 17%

so we have 70% of cars that don't even reach the average.

FYI; 60% of the trucks they sell are more than $40,000

I posted this ABG article in some thread or other when it came out, about 2 years ago but it's still relevant:

Who Can Afford The Average Car Price? Only Folks In Washington, D.C.

http://www.autoblog.com/2014/03/12/who-can-afford-the-average-car-price-only-folks-in-washington/

. . . The report by Interest.com shows that Washington, D.C. is the only American metropolitan area in which a family earning the city's median income can afford the average price of a new vehicle, which was $32,086 in 2013, according to Kelley Blue Book. That price equates to a monthly payment of $633, assuming the buyers put 20 percent down, financed for 48 months and principal, interest and insurance did not exceed ten percent of the household's gross income.

Average-earning residents of Washington, D.C., can afford to pay $32,531, or $641 per month, for a vehicle. The rest of the nation can afford significantly less. Simply put, people are spending far too much money on their cars. . . .

 

[WetEV]

median income can afford the average price of a new vehicle,

Bill Gates walks into a bar. The average wealth is now in the millions. Doesn't help the guy at the corner table pay for a beer.

Compare average income with average price.

Or median income with median price.

Comparing median income with average price is meaningless and misleading.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

thanks for clarification! yeah, I would tend to agree with you except that we are starting to see an emergence of higher power L2's that can provide a decent range boost at places where the stop is expected to be in the 1-2 hour range. As far as 100 mile EVs going away? That would be an enormous marketing blunder. Fact of the matter; the fed cred will be gone for most in the next 2 years and the great predominance of the car buying public does NOT think $35,000 is affordable

My assumption is that prices for typical 200 mile EVs will decrease over the next five to ten years.

They most likely will. But will they decline enough? How much will 100 mile EVs' price deline? If a 60kWh BEV costs $25k, and a 30kWh BEV costs $19k, I suspect there will be a market for both. In the medium term (5-10 years), I suspect there will be a market for both. Eventually, 60kWh BEVs will be cheap enough that it wouldn't make sense to build/sell a 30kWh BEV. My WAG would be 10-15 years. 2 or 3 more generations.