WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
You're limiting sales to only those own single-family homes or who have reliable workplace charging.
Sure. Which is well over 50%. No where close to that yet.
I've edited my previous post to include public charging info by metro area. And as I mentioned, here in the Bay Area we're at 40% or a bit more PEV new car sales % NOW (Q2), and that's a hell of a lot closer to 50% than 90%. California as a whole was at 25.6% (another source says 25.4%) for Q2, up from 21.1% for Q1. The Bay Area's the canary in the coal mine. Assuming the current growth rate continues we may well hit 50% by year's end. The Saudis say they're going to maintain their 1 million bbl/day production cut at least through the end of the year so gas prices may not drop much (bar the usual drop when changing from summer to winter blend) at least until then, so PEVs should have relatively good 'fuel' costs vs. ICEs at least while that's the case. But if people don't have convenient charging, sales will stagnate. San Francisco's something of an extreme case, as 65% of households are renters owing to sky high prices, but housing prices are very high in most of the Bay Area.
Isn't the canary Norway? What's Norway's BEV sales percentage?
I wasn't aware that Norway was part of the US, or that they use NACS - aren't they using CCS-2? BTW, what's Norway's distribution of household types, and the number of chargers per population, and how are those chargers distributed?
Also you need to consider not the whole population, but the subgroup that buys new cars. Renters are far more likely to buy used cars. Home owners are far more likely to buy new cars. The renter crunch is later, 3 to 8 years delayed or when ever the used BEVs start filling up the used auto sales lots. As used BEVs are likely to be cheaper, there will be a real economic incentive to find/develop/build charging.
Since BEVs will have degraded range 3-8 years down the line, the number of people who will find they meet their needs will be limited for that reason as well. Lower income renters will be far more likely to be single-car households, typically have longer commutes, and each car will have to be capable of doing all kinds of trips, PHEVs, OTOH, only need L1, and will be just as usable for road trips when used as they were when new., and still capable of handling any commute (with some loss of AER, to be sure). Oh, and we're already 12.5 years into this transition.
Landlords will find they can charge higher rent, get better tenants and retain tenants longer; by investing in charging.
Employers will find they can get happier and more stable employees by investing in charging.
San Fransisco has a lot of renters (43.19%) that are car free. I doubt if they are likely to buy a BEV.
https://transpomaps.org/san-francisco/ca/car-ownership
Have you ever tried to park in San Francisco? I had a girlfriend who lived there. When she got off swing shift (she went to to school during the day, worked at night), often the nearest legal parking spot she could find to her apartment was up to six blocks away. Since there was no way she was going to walk that distance by herself at that time of night, she parked in a nearby bus stop and set her alarm in hopes that it'd wake her up in time to move the car into a parking spot opened up by the early commuters, before the buses started running. But because she was often exhausted the alarm didn't wake her. Although she'd since moved from S.F., when I met her she still had something over $4,000 in parking fines, which she was slowly paying off.
Actually, many of the renters in San Francisco now have bought PEVs in the form of e-bikes, or else they rent electric scooters.
San Francisco's high population density and lack of space isn't conducive to car ownership (or driving in general, which is why after NYC it'll likely be the second U.S. city to impose congestion fees), but it is well suited for walking, public transit and alternative forms of transportation. One can only hope that fully autonomous cars (Cruise, Waymo etc.) reach an adequate level of development soon, because owning a car there is a rough experience, especially when you consider housing costs (Average apartment rent $3,336/month. Average apt. size 736 sq. ft.). Absent curbside charging or DCFCs at large grocery stores, PEVs just aren't going to work for most renters there.
Luckily, San Francisco was largely built out pre-car, so much of it still has the kind of mixed-use walkable development with good public transit that makes owning a car not a necessity, unless of course you have to commute somewhere that doesn't have good transit links.