2016 Leaf: How many kWh needed, and at what price?

[N952JL]

I like sedans that sit low. Wife could use a truck. Not me. I need to be nimble when doing my commute. I maneuver a lot. Now, an electric Prelude. That would be my kind of a car.

I really wonder when Honda (the so-called innovator) is going to wake up from its slumber and actually make an exciting EV you don't have to spend 500 bucks a month just to lease. I put on 22,000 miles a year. I cannot lease a Fit.

And I can't use my "100-mile" Leaf to commute to work as I was planning to do. So, I'm stuck. Wife drives the car if it's 10 miles up and down the freeway, and refuses to feel range-unsafe. So, no more Marin to SF and back (60 miles). Now she's saying she hates the car because I always want to make sure she drives it. Women - they hate to be controlled.

That's why I'm eagerly awaiting anything with 120-mile range that is not a truck.

If stupid Sutter Health let me charge at work I'd be in good shape. I did it for a few months, got outed, written up, and told to forget it by the administrator. The message was clear: not 'appenin'. I will published that person's missive once I quit. That was 60 cents worth of juice a day. And I did pay it. Sutter is no Google/Yahoo. I'll tell you that.

Nissan had a two seat sports car type EV as a concept car two years ago. It was based on the Leaf but had the electric moter driving the rear wheels like the Tesla S. Now that car with a 250 mile range would be my next vehicle.

 

[N952JL]

I like sedans that sit low. Wife could use a truck. Not me. I need to be nimble when doing my commute. I maneuver a lot. Now, an electric Prelude. That would be my kind of a car.

I really wonder when Honda (the so-called innovator) is going to wake up from its slumber and actually make an exciting EV you don't have to spend 500 bucks a month just to lease. I put on 22,000 miles a year. I cannot lease a Fit.

And I can't use my "100-mile" Leaf to commute to work as I was planning to do. So, I'm stuck. Wife drives the car if it's 10 miles up and down the freeway, and refuses to feel range-unsafe. So, no more Marin to SF and back (60 miles). Now she's saying she hates the car because I always want to make sure she drives it. Women - they hate to be controlled.

That's why I'm eagerly awaiting anything with 120-mile range that is not a truck.

If stupid Sutter Health let me charge at work I'd be in good shape. I did it for a few months, got outed, written up, and told to forget it by the administrator. The message was clear: not 'appenin'. I will published that person's missive once I quit. That was 60 cents worth of juice a day. And I did pay it. Sutter is no Google/Yahoo. I'll tell you that.

Nissan had a two seat sports car type EV as a concept car two years ago. It was based on the Leaf but had the electric moter driving the rear wheels like the Tesla S. Now that car with a 250 mile range would be my next vehicle.

 

[Herm]

are you thinking of the NISMO race car?

 

[BraveLittleToaster]

Or have a second ICE to fit your other driving requirements and that is not something the adverage person wants.

Really?

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2012_fotw727.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This graph seems to indicate that more American households have two or more cars than have less than two.

So since "having a second ICE" is something the average person already *has*, I would say that's not much of a real stumbling block to the average person.

 

[Sublime]

I would estimate that the 24kwh LEAF fits the bill as a second car for at least 80% of 2 car households. Small increments of pack size doesn't open the market up much and large increments (at large increments of price) don't either.

A 30kwh, 40kwh, or even 60kwh LEAF isn't the only car in a household. Until I can hop in my BEV, drive 4 hours at 75mph with charging options every 50-100 miles, I need another car.

The roadblocks between here and there are:
1) Fast charger stations every 50 miles of interstate. That means about 1000 of them.
2) Fast chargers... real fast chargers NOT Chademo or SAE. Capable of 85kwh in 30 minutes or less. That means 170kw+ rate.
3) A cultural shift in the view of BEV and their depreciation (an 85kwh car that only uses 20% of its capacity daily should be usable for 20+ years)
4) An 85kwh car, that gets 3.8mi/kwh at 80mph, for $30k - $40k
5) A 3x - 4x improvement in battery energy density (price/weight of battery will likely stay the same).

The problem is we can't go 1,2,3,4,5... its going to have to start at 5 and go backwards.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

A couple months back we had this little discussion:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=11728" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Just because you are in a two car household doesn't mean you have access to the other car.

 

[TomT]

Maybe that might want to go to something like this...

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1083705_will-future-tesla-electric-cars-use-metal-air-batteries" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Or have a second ICE to fit your other driving requirements and that is not something the adverage person wants.

and that household should not be looking at a LEAF. EV tech is simply not to that point yet unless you have $100 G's for a Tesla

 

[jstack6]

What about battery trailers? You wouldn't need the weight of extra batteries at all if you could rent a range extending trailer, and swap them out as you go for really long trips. Saw this somewhere, but forget where.

That would be the ACPropulsion Long Ranger Trailer. They even have a special backing system so the trialer will be easy to back up. I call it the detachable hybrid. By the way their EVs set the design for Tesla, BMW and many others. They also do V2G and other world leading features.

http://www.acpropulsion.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genset_trailer" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[jlsoaz]

Or have a second ICE to fit your other driving requirements and that is not something the adverage person wants.

Really?

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2012_fotw727.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This graph seems to indicate that more American households have two or more cars than have less than two.

So far so good on the numbers.

So since "having a second ICE" is something the average person

Nope. The numbers you referenced were in relation to average households, not average persons.

already *has*, I would say that's not much of a real stumbling block to the average person.

Even though your numbers did not necessarily show what you claim, it's certainly possible that along with the number of cars per household going up, we may see the number of cars per person or owner going up, I don't know.

In my own case, just to relate the anecdote and not to claim it proves anything, I note that, as a one-person household and trying to conserve both funds and time and keep my life and responsibilities relatively simple, since starting this thread I have sold my ICV.

 

[Sublime]

So since "having a second ICE" is something the average person

Nope. The numbers you referenced were in relation to average households, not average persons.

I'm trying to understanding your point. A single person is a household. A couple is a household. The Duggar's are a household.

 

[jlsoaz]

So since "having a second ICE" is something the average person

Nope. The numbers you referenced were in relation to average households, not average persons.

I'm trying to understanding your point. A single person is a household. A couple is a household. The Duggar's are a household.

Hi - the average number of cars per household in the US has gone up. We can't assume the number of people per household has remained constant. Therefore we can't assume that the average number of cars per person (or per licensed driver, which is yet another calculation) in the US has gone up. As I already said, it may well have done, but let's not assume it.

Once those numbers are dug up, I'd say they should be understood properly, but that would take some doing. For example, the US has been through and continues to work on getting through a bad economic downturn. Have households which own multiple cars kept all their cars in working order and registered? Have they accumulated cars in some cases because it's cheaper to just let them sit for a few years before they somehow get sold or to the scrap-heap? How have passenger-miles traveled changed and how many passengers are in cars on average as they travel if numbers of cars are up? (i.e.: with more car options per family, how many trips are taken as a family or alone). How will the downturn affect their car-buying going forward?

It seems to me somewhat logical in many civilizations for the number of cars (working, sort of working or not-working) per person to accumulate over time, but scratch the surface and I'm not sure it's as simple as generalizing that in the US car-owners are more comfortable owning multiple cars. It may well be the case, but I'm not leaping to that conclusion yet.

 

[jlsoaz]

I have just read through all ten pages of this topic. And it is clear we have a very divers group of drivers on this topic. I have been driving my leaf since Dec 2011. I was the first leaf reserved for GA and the second one deliviered. As elsewhere mentioned the number one question I am asked is "range". I tell them the EPA estimates are honest. Without hypermilling you can achieve the EPA estimates in normal day to day city driving. Then I go on to tell them I have never ran out of juice, and the Leaf handles 97 to 98% of all my trips, but only 65 to 70% of my yearly milage. Yes a full 30% of my milage is made up of 3% of my trips. That stops people cold.

You see with the current range limits, while very well for day to day driving will not fit the need of the adverage driver. He doesn't buy a car for his day to day work comute. A big part of his purchase decision is "freedom". The freedom to leave town on a three day weekend. To just hop in the car and drive up to Atlanta for a special concer. Wait, can't no range. To plan a trip to Vegas, Nope, can't drive to the airport no range. We do not have any charging structure between Warner Robins and the Atlanta Airport and besides you don't have the time to wait 6 hrs for a level 2 to recharge anyway.

You talk about a "sweet point" and all you think about is your normal driving day will sometimes exceed 100 miles and you need extra. that is all well and good but unless your range includes the drop of the hat weekend road trip you are not being real.

Now to me the sweet point is a honest to God 250 mile interstate speed range. About 4 hrs at 70 (about 280) would be perfect. As most will want to stop for something by that time and having a QC near every 100 to 150 miles would fit nicely. It gives you a four to one ration of drive to charge time while on the road. Now do you need this every day of the year? No. But if the car is going to meet your driving requirements, you will need it. Or have a second ICE to fit your other driving requirements and that is not something the adverage person wants.

OK, so what do I see happening. It is possible that between now and 2020 we could have a 96kWh battery that is the same size and weight as the current 24. I believe it would need to have a good active TMS for long life. And I believe the price would be no more than twice what the current battery pack cost. Leave 6 kWh as a reserver much like the current 24kWh battery only has 23 usuable. This still gives us 90 kWh at arround 4 miles/kWh would give us a 360 mile range, much more than is needed. Now of course this assumes a break through in batteries giving us 4x more power at the same rate while only costing 2x more. In addition to the battery we will need a corresponding increase in charger so as to be able to recharge this batter within six hrs at night.

Now many of you are correct in that this is an over kill and we don't need to haul that much weight around when most of the time we don't need the range. You do that with your ICE car. Each gal of gas weights about six lbs per gal.

I didn't like the volt because of the weight and complexity of the volts ice engine. The volt is not a true BEV with the gas engine to recharge the batter. The ICE engine does contribute it's share to the drive wheels whenever they are on the road.

Why cary that engine around when you don't need it? I agree so I also see a range extender gen set business being created. Ether battery trailers or small micro gensets designed to put out 30 to 40 kWh and small/light enough to sit on a platform and can slide into a trailer receiver. Running of of a LP cylinder with a two to three hour range would be ideal. Then just swapp out the LP bottle and go on your way.

This is just my two cents worth but it seems to be back up by the numbers in the telsa S,.

It seems useful to run through the exercise of insisting that many of us, once in awhile, need to far exceed the limitations of our BEVs and travel 100-200-300 or more miles at 70-75 mph, and to heck with the limitations.

I like the idea of at least exploring a range extender and other answers to this.

On another front, I think some here are over-banking on radical improvements in battery specifications. They could happen and probably have a higher likelihood of happening ("happening" is defined here as actually being sold in mass-volumes to consumers and not developing horrible quality issues that force recalls and harm business more than help) than if this were 1995 or 2005, but the history of the EV business is fraught with expectations of radical battery improvements just around the corner, and so this bears at least mentioning and reminding.

On the question of a market and product sweet spot, I think there can be more than one desirable product with more than one desirable price and range @45 or @75 mph. So, the focus on 280 or 300 miles @ 75 mph seems worth discussing at times, but I'd also add:

What about 85 miles @ 70 mph?

I think for some of us (how many is hard to quantify) Nissan did not quite get it right with 24 kWh and about 3.5 miles per kWh or more at slower speeds. They came close enough for many of our purposes, but to speak up about my future purchasing so Nissan knows what I'd like, I suspect that when my Leaf lease is up, my next BEV will have about 35 to 45 kWh (as much as I can afford) and that there will be more competition for my dollars than there was in October 2012.

Then again, if someone really comes up with a fantastically well-implemented range-extender by the time my lease is up, (whether it is a liquid or gas-to-power range extender or a battery range extender which is something I hadn't really considered until now), I would consider it. I'm not sure if I'd get it. I might well prefer the simplicity of an all-in-one 36 kWh vehicle, but I'd try to give it some fair consideration to a range extender and see what the real-world pros and cons are.

 

[Sublime]

Hi - the average number of cars per household in the US has gone up. We can't assume the number of people per household has remained constant. Therefore we can't assume that the average number of cars per person (or per licensed driver, which is yet another calculation) in the US has gone up. As I already said, it may well have done, but let's not assume it.

Ok, I see your point. However, I think the stumbling block for most people owning a BEV is that they do occasionally need to go over 80 miles. To overcome that, its not a question about the number of cars per person, but the number of cars a person has access to. So cars per household does a good job of estimating that.

A single car household (a single person or a family of 5) isn't a likely buyer for a BEV... especially a 24kwh LEAF.
A single car per driver, in a multi driver household, is a potential buyer of a BEV.

 

[DanCar]

...snip...
The present-day vacuum between 24 kWh and 60 kWh will I suspect be filled by someone in a decent-quality way over the next few years (just as competition is heating up in PHEVs and expanding the different prices and mile-ranges available to folks). ...snip...

Some people here are great with 24 kWh or less, some are not, and for some it depends on the price, with different personalized marginal utility comments as to how much we might pay for more kWh, more miles, and more high-speed and full-comfort miles rather than the usual BEV compromises to reach the longer ranges.
...snip...
I do think that there have been, are, and will be perhaps more potential BEV buyers/lessees out there in the 24 kWh to 60 kWh area than Nissan presently seems to be aware. I was really surprised that they seemed to propose a luxury (Infiniti, which I assume means luxury) BEV with only 24 kWh.

Agree. $200 a month SL is very cheap. I would be willing to pay more for more range, but not willing to pay for Tesla. Tesla will have their bluestar out by 2017, so at most 4 years to wait. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_BlueStar" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The 2014 Infiniti LE is going to have a bigger battery pack. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infiniti_LE" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
2014 Nissan Leaf will have option for bigger battery pack also. I remember reading or watching a youtube video interview with Nissan but I don't have that reference now.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

From BBC news:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-22191650" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Could 3D electrode technology lead to a Leaf with a 700 mile range for the same pack size, that can be recharged in 5 minutes?

I think this may have the potential, if it can be succesfully scaled up and they use a less combustable chemistry.

Usually it's chemistry that changes, not geometry.

 

[DanCar]

Battery breakthrough "technology" is announced every week. Most of it is worthless marketing looking for VC funding. If a third party announces future availability of new battery technology, like Nissan, then that is worth something.

 

[jlsoaz]

Agree. $200 a month SL is very cheap. I would be willing to pay more for more range, but not willing to pay for Tesla. Tesla will have their bluestar out by 2017, so at most 4 years to wait. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_BlueStar" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The 2014 Infiniti LE is going to have a bigger battery pack.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infiniti_LE" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I hope you're right. What I see at the top of the Wikipedia page is indication of the same 24 kWh pack as the Leaf.

2014 Nissan Leaf will have option for bigger battery pack also. I remember reading or watching a youtube video interview with Nissan but I don't have that reference now.

This would be fantastic if true, particularly if it is an option (so that those satisfied with 24 kWh and lower pricing can stay at that level). I was unable to dig anything up after I saw you post this, but I will try again some other time.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Agree. $200 a month SL is very cheap. I would be willing to pay more for more range, but not willing to pay for Tesla. Tesla will have their bluestar out by 2017, so at most 4 years to wait. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_BlueStar" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The 2014 Infiniti LE is going to have a bigger battery pack.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infiniti_LE" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I hope you're right. What I see at the top of the Wikipedia page is indication of the same 24 kWh pack as the Leaf.

2014 Nissan Leaf will have option for bigger battery pack also. I remember reading or watching a youtube video interview with Nissan but I don't have that reference now.

This would be fantastic if true, particularly if it is an option (so that those satisfied with 24 kWh and lower pricing can stay at that level). I was unable to dig anything up after I saw you post this, but I will try again some other time.

Actually the infiniti has already been verified to have a bigger battery pack but am not in a position to easily search for a link right now

the thought of the LEAF having battery pack options has been discussed but not aware of any definitive word on that.

 

[CMYK4Life]

The price to the end user needs to be within $50 a month compared to what we are paying today.

The battery capacity needs to go up 15% or more (not for me but to reduce the EV range stigma without a significant jump in price).

There also needs to be a 'sport' option package that has slightly better performance (slightly bigger motor or different programming). I like to drive my Leaf fast and hard, I like sporty trim and badging. I love the pep in this car and I am thirsty for more!

Thats my opinion.