2016 Leaf: How many kWh needed, and at what price?

[DaveinOlyWA]

If it is only 6 Kwh more and still no TMS, I suspect not a whole lot more... I know I would not be interested under those circumstances...

When Infiniti LE comes out with a higher range, we will know how much people are willing to pay for a higher range (and a better brand).

no real facts here other than a promise of a more efficient vehicle so if the LEAF is getting 84 miles on 24 Kwh, that is 3.5 miles per kwh so it would make sense the infiniti would get no worse than 105 miles of range on a 30 kwh pack. keep in mind, adding 6 kwh wont give you 6 kwh of range just as the current 24 kwh does not give you but only 21.whatever kwh of range so this calculation does imply the same ratio of access.

performance increases thru better aerodynamics (which has been mentioned) , lower Cd, etc. I think that is what they are hoping for and they will need it because the infiniti promises to be both a bigger and heavier car assuming no steps taken to lighten the load with material changes which I am guessing wont be the case in order to control costs.

 

[dgpcolorado]

...performance increases thru better aerodynamics (which has been mentioned) , lower Cd, etc. I think that is what they are hoping for and they will need it because the infiniti promises to be both a bigger and heavier car assuming no steps taken to lighten the load with material changes which I am guessing wont be the case in order to control costs.

"Bigger" and lower Cd work at cross purposes so far as "better aerodynamics" is concerned. (Drag is proportional to both Cd and cross-sectional area.) An extreme example: the Tesla Model S has a lower Cd than the LEAF but much lower mileage efficiency due to being much bigger and heavier.

So, even if the Infiniti has a better Cd, if it is bigger it might not be much more efficient.

Just saying...

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

...performance increases thru better aerodynamics (which has been mentioned) , lower Cd, etc. I think that is what they are hoping for and they will need it because the infiniti promises to be both a bigger and heavier car assuming no steps taken to lighten the load with material changes which I am guessing wont be the case in order to control costs.

"Bigger" and lower Cd work at cross purposes so far as "better aerodynamics" is concerned. (Drag is proportional to both Cd and cross-sectional area.) An extreme example: the Tesla Model S has a lower Cd than the LEAF but much lower mileage efficiency due to being much bigger and heavier.

So, even if the Infiniti has a better Cd, if it is bigger it might not be much more efficient.

Just saying...

right and my statement was made for the purpose of illustrating (poorly I might add) that despite being heavier and bigger, the infiniti could still achieve the 3.5 miles per installed kwh that the LEAF gets.

In Tesla's case. "I think" their lower performance #'s are only partially due to the size and weight of the car. I think the TMS also deducts from that formula and how much? don't know but with that big battery pack, they can afford that relatively small overhead.


Nissan did state on our trip that the LEAF was not expected to be the "flagship" EV for the company. they performed market studies that indicated that a 5 passenger sedan had the best chance at widespread acceptance.

 

[TonyWilliams]

You can see all EV today, except Tesla, have a range between 70 to 90. They have a specific target - as a commuter car in a two-car family. This range is enough to replace 40% of all cars.

That 70-90 of miles is so they can call them "100 mile range" LA4 cycle vehicles for CARB-ZEV credits. Otherwise, they would all be doorless golf cart toys with seat belts (like we had 15 years ago) with much, much shorter range.

A "100 mile range" car with "fast charge" capability gets even more credits.

Tesla doesn't have to worry about any of that, as they just sell the credits (so far, for $63 million). Of course, Nissan has plenty of credits to sell, too.

The rest of the "Very Large Manufacturers" (after Nissan) are pretty much just supplying the absolute minimum (Ford Focus EV, Honda Fit EV, Fiat 500e, Toyota Rav4 EV, GM Chevrolet Spark EV).

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/factsheets/zev_tutorial.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

CARB-ZEV Requirement

For 2012-2014 "Phase 3", 12% of production must meet Yearly ZEV requirements (including ZEV's, Enhanced AT PZEVs, ATPZEVs and PZEVs). Of that 12%, 0.79% must be ZEV.

Any type of ZEV may be used

Type V - 300+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 7 - Required # 1427
Type IV - 200+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 5 - Required # 2000
Type III - 100+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 4 - Required # 2500
Type III - 200+ miles range -------------- Credit per vehicle: 4 - Required # 2500
Type II - 100+ miles range -------------- Credit per vehicle: 3 - Required # 3333
Type I.5 - 75-100 miles range ---------- Credit per vehicle: 2.5 - Required # 4000
Type I - 50-75 miles range -------------- Credit per vehicle: 2 - Required # 5000

After 2017, the credits for Type III, IV and V drop to 3

All manufacturers must report by May of the calendar year following the compliance model year; e.g., for 2008 model year, report is due may 1, 2009. Manufacturers may update reports until September. Manufacturers have two years to make up a ZEV deficit, or they are subject to penalties outlines in Health and Safety Code 43211:

$5000 penalty per vehicle not produced

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/macs/macs.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[jlsoaz]

It occurs to me to add a point that I don't think has been made here in this topic. Many BEV drivers, myself included, have considered and rejected a less expensive lower-range BEV (the Mitsubishi iMiEV) in favor of the Leaf. For me, the foremost reason for this decision was that the Leaf offers considerably more usable kWh and range. There are other reasons including what many consider to be the superior looks and utility and other overall aspects of the Leaf. In my case, I was quite prepared to drive an iMiEV, and enjoy the quirky (for this area) styling, but the comparatively meager 16 kWh of battery was in the end the deal-breaker.

I can't seem to recall the price comparisons of the lowest priced iMiEV versus the lowest end Leaf, around last year. In the end my choice to lease sort of mooted matter or muddied the water, but I'll say that in purchasing maybe the difference was something like $5k (?), and in kWh of course the difference was 8 kWh. The leasing difference ended up being less of a difference with the aggressive deals that Nissan struck, except I'm not sure where Mitsubishi went with their leases.

If someone would have offered me the same differential on the Leaf as the Leaf offered me on the iMiEV - about 8 kWh more, for about $5k more in msrp (translated into a heftier monthly lease payment), and if it was a quality vehicle from a reliable established manufacturer with clear mass-market and highly-committed intentions, then I would have probably taken it. I say "probably" because in the end, I was particularly won over by the significant lease deals that were offered.... in a way I saw this as the fever kind of breaking..... so it's hard to compare based on MSRP when in the end I am happy leasing, for now.

I have to add the caveats in part because CODA satisfied the basic price and kWh criteria, but the company was too unestablished and risky for me to give it serious consideration..... Likewise, some of the after-market modified vehicles would have been good to try based on price, but I could not risk it.

 

[GRA]

FYI, from Plugincars.com:

Survey: To Be Satisfied, Electric Car Drivers Want 150 Miles of Range

http://www.plugincars.com/survey-be-satisfied-electric-car-drivers-want-150-miles-range-127255.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

FYI, from Plugincars.com:

Survey: To Be Satisfied, Electric Car Drivers Want 150 Miles of Range

http://www.plugincars.com/survey-be-satisfied-electric-car-drivers-want-150-miles-range-127255.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

+1 which is why I will be leasing my LEAF in Jan... I will buy the 150 mile EV

 

[N952JL]

FYI, from Plugincars.com:

Survey: To Be Satisfied, Electric Car Drivers Want 150 Miles of Range

http://www.plugincars.com/survey-be-satisfied-electric-car-drivers-want-150-miles-range-127255.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

That is a good min. I still say you need a 3 to 1 ration of Highway driving to recharge time. For example 3 hrs of driving at 70 to 75 for every 1 hour of recharge time. That will allow you to go on the weekend trips. After three hours on the road you are ready for a rest stop. Granted an hour would be long (for me 15 mins is enough) but you can have a nice meal in an hour or shop around a little. Then get back on the road for another three hrs. That way in an ten hour day you could travel 500 miles.

 

[edatoakrun]

FYI, from Plugincars.com:

Survey: To Be Satisfied, Electric Car Drivers Want 150 Miles of Range

http://www.plugincars.com/survey-be-satisfied-electric-car-drivers-want-150-miles-range-127255.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And I expect that you could also find a survey that found:

To Be Satisfied, Gasoline Car Drivers Want to pay no more than $2.00 a gallon.

You don't always get what you want...

Fortunately, the LEAF has enough range today to make it preferable to every ICEV for a large number of drivers.

And with each increase in range in the future, that number will increase.

 

[GRA]

FYI, from Plugincars.com:

Survey: To Be Satisfied, Electric Car Drivers Want 150 Miles of Range

http://www.plugincars.com/survey-be-satisfied-electric-car-drivers-want-150-miles-range-127255.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And I expect that you could also find a survey that found:

To Be Satisfied, Gasoline Car Drivers Want to pay no more than $2.00 a gallon.

You don't always get what you want...

Fortunately, the LEAF has enough range today to make it preferable to every ICEV for a large number of drivers.

And with each increase in range in the future, that number will increase.

Uh huh, but as I've said on numerous occasions, even if the 2nd gen. may get by with a minimum of 100 miles, I think at least 150 miles EPA is what is needed to prevent range anxiety by the typical, non-ideological driver for their normal weekday driving plus the occasional emergency. They can drive however they want in any conditions and still get 70 miles or more, with 100-110 on the freeway in most conditions for several years at least. If the cars are ever to be acceptable for freeway cruising trips they'll need even more range, but we're talking about what we can reasonably expect in 2016 for an affordable price.

So, while I think a minimum of 100 miles EPA at a maximum of $30k MSRP (base model) is the minimum acceptable for the 2nd gen, I think what Nissan and the other affordable BEVs need to shoot for is 150 miles @ 25K MSRP, and they need to offer a choice of battery pack sizes. I doubt they can meet the latter target by 2016 barring a battery price/technology breakthrough, but they should at least offer a choice between say 100m/30k and 150m/35k.

And while we're at it, they either need to make the heat pump standard or at least make it optional on the S. No need to wait for 2016, they should do this for the 2014 model. Giving people the option of cruise control too would be icing on the cake; they could even bundle them if they insist.

 

[ydnas7]

And I expect that you could also find a survey that found:

To Be Satisfied, Gasoline Car Drivers Want to pay no more than $2.00 a gallon.

You don't always get what you want...

So far, its hard to justify more than a LEAF if the price gets into Volt territory.....

Its hard to justify a Volt, as LEAF costs less and has more usable volume.....

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

I concur that 150 would get most people over the pre-purchase psychological barrier. Even with current range, most local driving is easily covered. I think one of the midset changes that people don't always get up front is that you don't need to charge to 100% when away, you just need enough to get you comfortably home, which is usually (not always) a much lower burden to meet.