2016 Leaf: How many kWh needed, and at what price?

[adric22]

The point of that rambling in this thread is this: There isn't a huge usability gap (given the current state of charing speeds and locations) between the 24kWh LEAF and an 85kWh Model S (for me). Both are perfectly capable vehicles for 95% of the days out of the year. The over 3x capacity increase of the model S maybe buys me 2% more usability and neither would get me to 100% coverage.

I agree completely.. but having worked in the computer industry for 15 some-odd years, one thing has been constant. The vast majority of computer users will buy a computer 10x more powerful than they really need. When I used to work at a computer store years ago, we'd have customers come in all of the time and ask for my help in picking out a computer. They'd be looking at the most expensive things we had and ask me if it would work. So invariably, I'd ask them what they planned to do with it. They would often reply with things like "checking my email" or "updating my resume." So then I would explain that this other computer that was 1/3 the cost would do those things just fine. In fact, there would be very little difference at all for those tasks. In half the cases they still ended up buying the more expensive one.

Some people have a mentality that they are going to buy the absolutely minimum they need to get by. That is typically how I am. Other people think they need the biggest and best of everything. I think most people fall into the latter category.

 

[Sublime]

Some people have a mentality that they are going to buy the absolutely minimum they need to get by. That is typically how I am. Other people think they need the biggest and best of everything. I think most people fall into the latter category.

Good point and great analogy. What people need and what they want or will use are two vastly different things. I know people who don't know how to use the calendar in their smartphone but need the next one the day it comes out.

It's not a car companies job to tell people what they need, but rather provide them with what they want for cheaper than their competitor can... or they don't exist too long.

 

[ERG4ALL]

I always bought a computer towards the top of the line, but not the "bleeding" edge. The main reason was obsolescence. I was afraid that new apps and OSs would come out that I wouldn't be able to upgrade to given the "strength" of my machine. I don't know if that translates into the car realm.

 

[evnow]

The point of that rambling in this thread is this: There isn't a huge usability gap (given the current state of charing speeds and locations) between the 24kWh LEAF and an 85kWh Model S (for me).

Depends on the area.

For eg. in a Leaf I need to stop a few times for QC to reach Portland or Vancouver or some other day trip locations. Not so in S85.

Also, in winter, the 24 kwh Leaf can be expected to safely give you 50 to 60 miles. That is inadequate for some trips even within the city. In summer (or what you might call winter), Leaf is adequate.

 

[Sublime]

I always bought a computer towards the top of the line, but not the "bleeding" edge. The main reason was obsolescence. I was afraid that new apps and OSs would come out that I wouldn't be able to upgrade to given the "strength" of my machine. I don't know if that translates into the car realm.

The base model BMW 3 series makes about as much power as the 10 year old M3 made. Yet I'm sure the distribution of sales of the base model 3 series through to the M3 are about the same as they were 10 years ago.

 

[Sublime]

Depends on the area.

For eg. in a Leaf I need to stop a few times for QC to reach Portland or Vancouver or some other day trip locations. Not so in S85.

Also, in winter, the 24 kwh Leaf can be expected to safely give you 50 to 60 miles. That is inadequate for some trips even within the city. In summer (or what you might call winter), Leaf is adequate.

I think the area dictates where that usability valley is, but no matter where you live there is going to be a huge difference in needed capacity (3x-5x) to go from 90% to 100% of use case coverage.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

The point of that rambling in this thread is this: There isn't a huge usability gap (given the current state of charing speeds and locations) between the 24kWh LEAF and an 85kWh Model S (for me).

Depends on the area.

For eg. in a Leaf I need to stop a few times for QC to reach Portland or Vancouver or some other day trip locations. Not so in S85.

Also, in winter, the 24 kwh Leaf can be expected to safely give you 50 to 60 miles. That is inadequate for some trips even within the city. In summer (or what you might call winter), Leaf is adequate.

Have to agree here. An EV with a real 110-120 mile range is the sweet spot. This covers Winter range degradation, allows RT's to most regional destinations and a single charging stop when doing longer destinations like Portland which is ok (we always stop somewhere for breakfast anyway...)

 

[davidcary]

I am a former 60kWh reservation holder and now happy Leaf owner. The amount of kWh needed is a big function of local climate and terrain. I have a vacation house 125 miles away and no QCs in the state. So I knew I was giving up going EV for our weekend trips.

But what I've come to realize that it just doesn't make s sense to carry around 35kWh and really big car all the time for those weekend trips. The true value comes from small battery EVs. Road trips are for liquid fuels in 2013 and probably 2016.

My region allows 24 kWh to be perfect. But 60 kWh would have increased our EV miles by 30% - so it would have been helpful. But I really wanted the beauty and performance - the range was just an excuse. 30 or 40kWh would have increased the usefullness less than 5% so every situation is different.

My battery price estimates were based on Tesla pricing

60-40 = $10k (and you got some upgraded inverter also)
85-60 = $10k (and ditto)

Obviously the Leaf battery is not the same but $10k per 20kWh seemed like a good guess - which I did round to our 24kWh pack being $10k. Tesla seems to value 20 kWh at about $9k with $1k for the invertor.

 

[GRA]

As others have said, minimum usability depends on where you are. Here in the S.F. Bay Area, we are apparently the national champions of mega commuting - http://www.mercurynews.com/traffic/ci_22717273/bay-area-tops-new-mega-commuter-census-list" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. If you live in the south or east bay and commute into the City (SF) or vice versa, you're probably looking at around 50 +-5 miles one-way, with far east bay to south bay similar.

And to go somewhere in the bay region on a weekend is also likely to be 50-100 miles one way. So even though we have a temperate climate where the heat pump should make a considerable range difference in winter, the Leaf just falls short for many people, barring ubiquitous QCs. We're getting more slowly, but we really need a minimum of 100 EPA miles, with 125 or better yet 150 miles to make the car suitable for regional trips on the freeway without anxiety, and with full use of HVAC, lights and wipers. Until we have that, we need a gas car even for shorter regional trips, unless you're willing to put up with a great deal of inconvenience.

 

[TonyWilliams]

- where the heat pump should make a considerable range difference in winter, the Leaf just falls short for many people, barring ubiquitous QCs. We're getting more slowly, but we really need a minimum of 100 EPA miles, with 125 or better yet 150 miles to make the car suitable for regional trips on the freeway without anxiety, and with full use of HVAC, lights and wipers. Until we have that, we need a gas car even for shorter regional trips, unless you're willing to put up with a great deal of inconvenience.

You described the 103 EPA rated Toyota Rav4 perfectly. Nobody is buying them, with less than 400 sold in 6 months, and a net $30k price tag.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

- where the heat pump should make a considerable range difference in winter, the Leaf just falls short for many people, barring ubiquitous QCs. We're getting more slowly, but we really need a minimum of 100 EPA miles, with 125 or better yet 150 miles to make the car suitable for regional trips on the freeway without anxiety, and with full use of HVAC, lights and wipers. Until we have that, we need a gas car even for shorter regional trips, unless you're willing to put up with a great deal of inconvenience.

You described the 103 EPA rated Toyota Rav4 perfectly. Nobody is buying them, with less than 400 sold in 6 months, and a net $30k price tag.

nationwide distribution would QUICKLY solve that problem. Does Toyota have any kind of time limit as to how fast they need to sell their 2600? there is a lot of interest in the RAV in WA, but people are really hesitant about the support issues. Some are willing to chance it simply because its an EV and has little need for support usually but still too many others who are too cautious

 

[evnow]

nationwide distribution would QUICKLY solve that problem. Does Toyota have any kind of time limit as to how fast they need to sell their 2600? there is a lot of interest in the RAV in WA, but people are really hesitant about the support issues. Some are willing to chance it simply because its an EV and has little need for support usually but still too many others who are too cautious

Toyota needs to sell them in CA - not WA.

Toyota has zero interest in selling EVs. If they did, they would make a "100 mile" Prius BEV, which can compete well with Leaf.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

nationwide distribution would QUICKLY solve that problem. Does Toyota have any kind of time limit as to how fast they need to sell their 2600? there is a lot of interest in the RAV in WA, but people are really hesitant about the support issues. Some are willing to chance it simply because its an EV and has little need for support usually but still too many others who are too cautious

Toyota needs to sell them in CA - not WA.

Toyota has zero interest in selling EVs. If they did, they would make a "100 mile" Prius BEV, which can compete well with Leaf.

true. for my idea to work they need to want to sell 26,000 not 2600. Toyota just having a problem taking their eyes off those 15,000 Priuses they sell every month...

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Toyota needs to sell them in CA - not WA.

Toyota has zero interest in selling EVs. If they did, they would make a "100 mile" Prius BEV, which can compete well with Leaf.

Isn't that because it's about racking up enough credits to keep selling Sequoias, etc?

It would be great if Nissan jumped on the opening created by Tesla and made the LE 40kWh.

 

[KJD]

My battery price estimates were based on Tesla pricing
60-40 = $10k (and you got some upgraded inverter also)
85-60 = $10k (and ditto)
Obviously the Leaf battery is not the same but $10k per 20kWh seemed like a good guess - which I did round to our 24kWh pack being $10k. Tesla seems to value 20 kWh at about $9k with $1k for the invertor.

These numbers may not be exact, but reasonable and close enough.

Lets say then that a LEAF with 36kwh pack would be 5,000 more than the 24kwh LEAF. That would give you 100+ mile range at freeway speed year round. Count me in.

 

[Sublime]

Based on the latest sales numbers, it appears that Nissan has hit a nice sweetspot for sales as far as price for performance (range). Nissan can't rely on Fed tax incentives though. So before they start increasing range, they probably need to work more on price.

It would be nice if they offered the option though as a lot of people would like the extra 40 miles of range.

Maybe in the Infiniti LE... they can hide the cost a lot easier in a luxury car. Honestly the LEAF already acts 90% the part of a luxury car. They just need to add some nice finish bits and some extra sound deadening. The stuff doesn't cost much, but they can probably charge a $10k premium for it.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Honestly the LEAF already acts 90% the part of a luxury car. They just need to add some nice finish bits and some extra sound deadening. The stuff doesn't cost much, but they can probably charge a $10k premium for it.

That dog won't hunt with luxury buyers. Personally I don't mind driving a car that looks like a jelly bean, but most won't consider it. Appearance is everything in cars.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Honestly the LEAF already acts 90% the part of a luxury car. They just need to add some nice finish bits and some extra sound deadening. The stuff doesn't cost much, but they can probably charge a $10k premium for it.

That dog won't hunt with luxury buyers. Personally I don't mind driving a car that looks like a jelly bean, but most won't consider it. Appearance is everything in cars.

BINGO!

 

[Sublime]

That dog won't hunt with luxury buyers. Personally I don't mind driving a car that looks like a jelly bean, but most won't consider it. Appearance is everything in cars.

I just can't see Nissan doing much more for such a low volume car. At the very most they might extend the wheel base and lower the roof line (like they did to convert the 350z to the G37 coupe)

 

[evnow]

That dog won't hunt with luxury buyers. Personally I don't mind driving a car that looks like a jelly bean, but most won't consider it. Appearance is everything in cars.

The comment was about Infiniti LE - not Leaf.