2015 Jan Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 1070 - Total 5924

[evnow]

To be fair to Tesla, if I were only going to sell around 1000 cars, I'd rather those cars sell for $100,000 each rather than $30,000. ;-)

They better be - if that is your only car !!

 

[TomT]

I think those days may be numbered...

Agreed. Given Leaf's numbers over the years, it is clearly the leader - so, works in the other direction too.

 

[jhm614]

I think those days may be numbered...

Agreed. Given Leaf's numbers over the years, it is clearly the leader - so, works in the other direction too.

Tom,

I didn't realized you had returned the Leaf! What did you go with for the replacement?

Also, this can't be the first month that Tesla out-sold the Leaf in the US. The Volt, Telsa and the Leaf have all traded the monthly crown around, I think.

 

[TomT]

The lease was up and I returned it... I'm currently driving a 2013 Model S which I may buy... It's a P85+ owned by a producer friend and he ordered a P85D. He has more money than God and just wants to move it so he made me an incredible offer...

I didn't realized you had returned the Leaf!

 

[jhm614]

The lease was up and I returned it... I'm currently driving a 2014 Model S which I may buy... It's a P85+ owned by a producer friend and he ordered a P85D. He has more money than God and just wants to move it so he made me an incredible offer...

'Grats!

 

[JasonA]

That's awesome buddy! Hope it works out It's nice to get the "scraps" sometimes! :lol:

 

[dgpcolorado]

The lease was up and I returned it... I'm currently driving a 2013 Model S which I may buy... It's a P85+ owned by a producer friend and he ordered a P85D. He has more money than God and just wants to move it so he made me an incredible offer...

I am envious!

 

[edatoakrun]

...if I were only going to sell around 1000 cars, I'd rather those cars sell for $100,000 each rather than $30,000...)

I believe I'd rather sell the car which made a profit, rather than the one I had to sell at a loss...

As to Tesla S sales last month, here is a summary of the various guessometers, and a chart which allows you to compare their past guesses to the actual US sales.

Moral of the story?

If you want to know Tesla's January sales, since Tesla won't tell you, you will need to wait till ~ March.

...Let’s try to find out what really happened to the Model S sales. In this chart, you see monthly Model S “sales,” as guessed by Autodata (blue), Automotive News (grey), and Insideevs (green). The red line represents actual U.S. Model S registrations, as reported by Polk Automotive. Polk is one of the world’s best data sources when it comes to cars. It is owned by IHS, the company that also owns Jane’s Defence, employed by all governments that can’t afford their own CIA. (Which then uses Jane’s.) Polk doesn’t guess its data. It gets them from the motor vehicle departments around the country. Your tax dollars are at work here, so it takes a while. November is the last month for which registrations are available...

http://dailykanban.com/2015/02/new-data-shows-model-s-sales-33-january-tesla-reaches-new-lows/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[desiv]

I believe I'd rather sell the car which made a profit, rather than the one I had to sell at a loss...

Although, sometimes you sell at a loss to eventually make a profit.

Business is funny that way.. ;-)

desiv
p.s. That's a great link/article.. Thanx!

 

[xado1]

i think one reason is,that leaf owners keep their car,because there are no defaults at the car.
i love my leaf,but was thinking about a tesla. i found a solution.
a company here in vienna rents teslas.
two days a month i rent the tesla for 288.-euro(240usd),and i have invested some money there,they pay 7,35% interest(i hope they dont get broke)

http://www.blitzzcar.com/en" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

for every day use,the leaf is better here in europe,but i enjoy the days with the model S

if nissan or a third party comes with a extra battery or a range extender,i will buy this.

 

[Jay]

...if I were only going to sell around 1000 cars, I'd rather those cars sell for $100,000 each rather than $30,000...)

I believe I'd rather sell the car which made a profit, rather than the one I had to sell at a loss...

As to Tesla S sales last month, here is a summary of the various guessometers, and a chart which allows you to compare their past guesses to the actual US sales.

Moral of the story?

If you want to know Tesla's January sales, since Tesla won't tell you, you will need to wait till ~ March.

...Let’s try to find out what really happened to the Model S sales. In this chart, you see monthly Model S “sales,” as guessed by Autodata (blue), Automotive News (grey), and Insideevs (green). The red line represents actual U.S. Model S registrations, as reported by Polk Automotive. Polk is one of the world’s best data sources when it comes to cars. It is owned by IHS, the company that also owns Jane’s Defence, employed by all governments that can’t afford their own CIA. (Which then uses Jane’s.) Polk doesn’t guess its data. It gets them from the motor vehicle departments around the country. Your tax dollars are at work here, so it takes a while. November is the last month for which registrations are available...

http://dailykanban.com/2015/02/new-data-shows-model-s-sales-33-january-tesla-reaches-new-lows/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just to tag this, and why the Polk data doesn't work (besides having to wait 3 months for it and the data being incredibly stale -and they still note it is an estimate themselves), is that the government reporting system of the registration at their end lags the actual sales dates...and they don't use "automotive calendar" months which don't begin and end on the first/last days of the month.

The other issue is that Tesla books the sale on receipt of cash, then the car is registered later. In the case of out of state, they take the money, deliver the car and give the new owner temp tags until the owner registers himself (as required by law)

Here is Tesla's direct disclaimer on that:

"If you live in a state where Tesla has a sales license, we will take care of the registration for you. If you live in a non-licensed state, we will provide you with the necessary information and paperwork so you can register your Model S yourself. We will issue a temporary tag so you can legally drive your Model S as soon as you take delivery"

This means a sale logged on say September 27th in California, but not show up at the Texas DMV until November 7th.

So if you check the chart (below), you will see that the date reporting inaccuracy/quirk Sept 2014's big numbers to October 2014. For September we have confirmation Tesla sold a pile of cars at the very end of the month in an effort to make Q3 numbers after an unexpectedly long plant closure into August (before delivering much, much less in October). Tesla then slowed and focused more on international deliveries in October.

You can see how the Polk chart gets it wrong as a result:

Over time, our numbers and the gov't numbers even up, as Daily Kanban concludes themselves in that article.

"Looking at the chart, you can see that all guesstimators are way too optimistic. March through November 2014, the period for which numbers are available from all, 11,202 Model S were registered, Polk says. Generous Automotive News guessed 16,757, and was 5,555 too high. Guessing 14,050, Autodata was closer, but still way off. Kudos to Insideevs: The website outguessed the pros. With 11,600 estimated Model S sold March through November, Insideevs still aims a bit high, but only by 398. "

Every system has a flaw, even our own. However our system is based on data/information we receive directly from Fremont production/allocation plans and arrival/delivery data first hand on the ground. In the long run it does matter really that much to us, we do the best we can...then during each quarterly report, we adjust out numbers if we have too. To date, the largest adjustment for any 3 month period has bee about 250 units. Not too bad.

 

[evnow]

To date, the largest adjustment for any 3 month period has bee about 250 units.

That's why I get a chuckle when people argue how the future of Leaf is numbered based on estimated 30 more sales in Jan :lol:

 

[Zythryn]

To date, the largest adjustment for any 3 month period has bee about 250 units.

That's why I get a chuckle when people argue how the future of Leaf is numbered based on estimated 30 more sales in Jan :lol:

I'd chuckle at that too!

BTW, who said that?

 

[edatoakrun]

...You can see how the Polk chart gets it wrong as a result:

...

Polk is reporting registrations, so I can't see why you say they were "wrong".

The interesting thing about S sales, is how obvious Tesla's repeated end of quarter surges are, using both your and Polk's numbers.

No one can accuse Tesla of channel stuffing, in that without a middleman, there is no "channel" to stuff, but IMO, this is still rather odd corporate behavior.

To paraphrase Elon:

Monthly sales numbers are meaningless, so we don't report them.

Quarterly sales numbers, which we manipulate, are what really matter.

Looking forward to to seeing the December sales spike you report, show up in the December (and January) registration reports from Polk.

 

[Jay]

...You can see how the Polk chart gets it wrong as a result:

...

Polk is reporting registrations, so I can't see why you say they were "wrong".

The interesting thing about S sales, is how obvious Tesla's repeated end of quarter surges are, using both your and Polk's numbers.

No one can accuse Tesla of channel stuffing, in that without a middleman, there is no "channel" to stuff, but IMO, this is still rather odd corporate behavior.

To paraphrase Elon:

Monthly sales numbers are meaningless, so we don't report them.

Quarterly sales numbers, which we manipulate, are what really matter.

Looking forward to to seeing the December sales spike you report, show up in the December (and January) registration reports from Polk.

I probably shouldn't have said "wrong", they report it differently, they track registrations at their end - which is not how automotive sales are reported by the OEMs (and especially Tesla). The gov't (and by extension Polk) track the numbers when the car is registered...so for Tesla, who has a habit of delivering large chunks in very tight/intense spurts, (often at the very ends of a quarter/month) the numbers get blurred going by registrations...especially given the abnormal calendars for automotive sales.

So again, I shouldn't have said wrong, I should have said "registration" reporting is different from "sales". My apologies on that.

 

[Jay]

To date, the largest adjustment for any 3 month period has bee about 250 units.

That's why I get a chuckle when people argue how the future of Leaf is numbered based on estimated 30 more sales in Jan :lol:

Agreed. Truthfully, I think everyone gets way too worked up about very small data points/variance, but that's ok - people are free to draw whatever conclusions they like, (=

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

The cost benefit of quick charging was already dubious, but now with gas at $1.90/gallon around here it's a complete joke, especially compared to a high-mpg vehicle.

I agree. (Although I have the Aerovironment monthly package; which I use a LOT (I'm a terrible case for an EV.. ;-) )

It's a tricky proposition...
I'm not sure there is a "business model" for charging stations by themselves.
I appreciate that they need money for infrastructure, power (which is frequently during PEAK times), etc...

But at $7 a charge, on a car that gets abot 70 miles, that's 10 miles per dollar.
My Subaru beats that now that gas is under/at $2.

Maybe that's fine, as people in that situation will choose only to charge there when they have to, but the problem with that is that most people don't "have" to do that...
And if you price it that high, people won't use it..
And very few customers sounds bad to me for a business model...

Perhaps charging stations as a business will only really work when subsidised??
To bring in business? With help from the Power companies? From the Govt (we're here to help!)?
And especially, if when they come out with cars with a longer range and people less and less HAVE to charge while out...

Yeah, I can see expensive highway charging still being viable, but in town when you don't need to??? How often will people do that?

That said, I still am not convinced fluctuating gas prices are a significant reason people buy or don't buy EVs.
Those that are concerned about gas prices probably think it's likely they will go back up at some time...

Now, people thinking a "newer Leaf with more range" is only a release or 2 away.. I think that could hurt sales...

Also, just wondering.. When was the last time someone saw a commercial for the Leaf? (A commercial on youtube would count, but not if you went searching for Leaf Commercials.. ;-) )

desiv

an analysis ONLY based on the current price of gas?? wow...

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

The big three saw a significant January sales jump:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chrysler-sales-jump-in-january-1422968401" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

a single month a year from one year to the next means nothing. what is the 5 year trend? saying we had a big jump this year can also mean "we gained back over half of what we lost the year before"

 

[edatoakrun]

...so for Tesla, who has a habit of delivering large chunks in very tight/intense spurts, (often at the very ends of a quarter/month)...

Well, it sounds like there is a reason Tesla may have found itself with lots of extra Ss on hand and available for US deliveries last month:

Exclusive: Tesla CEO threatens firings after dismal China sales

Chief Executive Elon Musk is prepared to fire overseas executives, people with knowledge of the matter said, after weak Chinese sales of the company's luxury electric cars cast doubt on his ambitious global expansion plans.

Tesla sold about 120 cars in China last month, one of the sources told Reuters, well below the company's aggressive targets. Musk has previously said he expected China sales could rival those in the United States as early as 2015...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/10/us-tesla-china-exclusive-idUSKBN0LE2Q320150210" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[lorenfb]

Still not a 'bright picture' for Tesla

:lol:

Yeah.. alot of people have said that :roll:

They also have said the same about Solar City and SpaceX :?

Reminds me whenever a new so called EV comes out it's the "Tesla Killer"

Haters Gonna hate.

As I said before the Q4 report, "not a bright picture for Tesla". But Elon as usual comes up with his typical hyperbole
to offset reality, i.e. Tesla valued as much as Apple by 2020. Have to have sympathy, though, for those that
have deposits for the X and believe the 2015 delivery.