2014 July Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 3019 , Total 10533

[evnow]

"The market couldn't car less if US deliveries tanked because of deliveries to overseas."

Really? Don't think so!

Reality will eventually 'get' Tesla especially when Elon's hyperbole runs out.

Hmmm ... are you shorting TSLA ?

Instead of explaining why you think market doesn't care about US deliveries - mainly overall deliveries, you just say something about Elon's hyperbole.

 

[lorenfb]

For Tesla 500 is too low an estimate for July.

You'll have to wait until late October or early November for the actual July (Q3) data from Tesla.
But based on the recent stock price increase, the market thinks Tesla sales are on target
or better and basically discounts insideevs data which would indicate U.S. demand has
dropped. Yes, Tesla has shipped a lot of units to China & Europe lately, but you wouldn't
have thought to such an extent to affect U.S. deliveries.

The market couldn't car less if US deliveries tanked because of deliveries to overseas.
Tesla deposits have kept going up (its now $228m), so demand has increased.

A dedicated car carrier ship can take 4-5000 new cars. If Tesla so wanted, they could save money (improve margin) by filling a ship for Asia, and then a ship for Europe, and skip an entire quarter in the USA for deliveries. Then some spoiled brat Americans might take a baseball bat to their delayed Tesla.

The above is the correct quote. My view is that the market SHOULD care, but because of the hype
about Giga 'start' (then stop), the CUV, and the "huge" China/European market (shipments),
TSLA (Tesla stock) discounts the GAAP loss and a potential U.S. demand decline. As we all know
from finance, a stock price is just the present values of all future cash flows. So it appears that
the market has 'applied' very high multiples to the future cash flows while overly discounting near
term cash flows, and that to many is irrational.

Bottom line: We can all speculate about what will happen with Tesla, but reality will set in
in 6-9 months, i.e. when/where Giga really happens, the 1st deliveries of CUV, and in the short
term how 2014 ends for Tesla. And to assume like many, that Nissan and other OEMs are "asleep
at the wheel" when it comes to having a Gen 3 type competitive product before 2017 (Gen 3 forecast)
is naive.

 

[davidcary]

Naive?

There are zero concept cars talked about in the horizon that can compete with Tesla. Please find one. (OK there are a few high $ ones) Then give me an example of a new car as different as a 200 mile EV that didn't get pre announced by years. We all expect a Nissan/Infiniti higher range car. But I think we all know that higher range will cost more. They have to undercut Tesla on price by quite a bit to compete with the Model 3.

Next, show me the OEM that has >100 kw fast charging network that is rock solid reliable. Oh wait, show me an OEM that even has >100kw fast charging.

How can anyone compete in the longer distance EV realm without a really fast DC charging network?

Could Nissan do it - sure? Are there any plans by any OEM to have a faster charging system?

Now - Nissan could squeak by with Chademo if the have a really aerodynamic car. Because right now, even with chademo and 50 kwh battery, Tesla blows it away in driving/charging ratio. Presumably Tesla will be even better with the smaller Model 3 (smaller frontal area, smaller tires)

 

[lorenfb]

"There are zero concept cars talked about in the horizon that can compete with Tesla."

So! Most OEMs don't have an Elon that has to keep their stock hyped.

"Please find one. (OK there are a few high $ ones) Then give me an example of a new car as different as a 200 mile EV that didn't get pre announced by years."

Most OEMs don't see a viable market for a BEV at over $100k. Based on GAAP, Tesla is losing money.
If it weren't for the $2.5B bond float based on hype from Adam Jonas (auto analyst - please),
at Morgan Stanley, they'd have a cash problem.

"Next, show me the OEM that has >100 kw fast charging network that is rock solid reliable. Oh wait, show me an OEM that even has >100kw fast charging."

Most present BEVs don't need that given the present ranges and that
most owners just charge in the evenings and most all present BEVs are designed
for intra-city travel.

"How can anyone compete in the longer distance EV realm without a really fast DC charging network?"

Most OEMs don't consider at the present battery costs that a viable
long range BEV is profitable and as a result a network is of little value now.
Tesla MUST have a network based on their key selling point, inter-city travel.

"Could Nissan do it - sure? Are there any plans by any OEM to have a faster charging system?"

Again, presently it's not needed.

"Now - Nissan could squeak by with Chademo if the have a really aerodynamic car. Because right now, even with chademo and 50 kwh battery, Tesla blows it away in driving/charging ratio. Presumably Tesla will be even better with the smaller Model 3."

Dream on! And you know what the BEV market horizon will be in 2017 just like Elon, right?

 

[adric22]

N
There are zero concept cars talked about in the horizon that can compete with Tesla. Please find one. (OK there are a few high $ ones) Then give me an example of a new car as different as a 200 mile EV that didn't get pre announced by years. We all expect a Nissan/Infiniti higher range car. But I think we all know that higher range will cost more. They have to undercut Tesla on price by quite a bit to compete with the Model 3.

There many not be anything directly competing with the Model-S. But let's face it.. The model 3 is where the future of Tesla is. And you can bet that vehicle will be directly competing with:

• The BMW i3
• 2nd Generation Nissan Leaf
• 2nd Generation Chevy Volt

 

[lorenfb]

N
There are zero concept cars talked about in the horizon that can compete with Tesla. Please find one. (OK there are a few high $ ones) Then give me an example of a new car as different as a 200 mile EV that didn't get pre announced by years. We all expect a Nissan/Infiniti higher range car. But I think we all know that higher range will cost more. They have to undercut Tesla on price by quite a bit to compete with the Model 3.

There many not be anything directly competing with the Model-S. But let's face it.. The model 3 is where the future of Tesla is. And you can bet that vehicle will be directly competing with:

• The BMW i3
• 2nd Generation Nissan Leaf
• 2nd Generation Chevy Volt

Kinda like saying that Blackberry has a major new smartphone to be in production in 2017 to challenge
both IOS and Android, right? Too bad Blackberry doesn't have Elon for its CEO or Adam Jonas at Morgan
to move its' stock like TSLA.

 

[finman100]

I have to ask why so many here lump the Volt with BEVs? It has a tailpipe, uses gas/oil, etc.? it's a hybrid! NOT an EV. So if u want to be off gas completely, the Volt is NOT an option. Leaf, Tesla, etc are ALL electric, no option for gasoline. If the Volt fits your needs, alleviates range issues, fine, choose the Volt. But please, it does not seem to be correct to lump it with REAL EVs. Even compliance EVs are "more electric" than Volt. All other PHEVs are great...IF gas is still wanted/needed. I suspect those in the Leaf and Tesla world are NOT wanting/needing gasoline...

 

[Zythryn]

...
Most OEMs don't see a viable market for a BEV at over $100k. Based on GAAP, Tesla is losing money.
If it weren't for the $2.5B bond float based on hype from Adam Jonas (auto analyst - please),
at Morgan Stanley, they'd have a cash problem...

Tesla is only loosing money because they are spending it on superchargers, service centers and stores as fast as the money comes in.
They have a gross margin of over 25% on their cars. And their cash flow is neutral. If they needed more cash, they could simply slow the expansion. However, they would grow slower that way.

 

[davidcary]

N
There are zero concept cars talked about in the horizon that can compete with Tesla. Please find one. (OK there are a few high $ ones) Then give me an example of a new car as different as a 200 mile EV that didn't get pre announced by years. We all expect a Nissan/Infiniti higher range car. But I think we all know that higher range will cost more. They have to undercut Tesla on price by quite a bit to compete with the Model 3.

There many not be anything directly competing with the Model-S. But let's face it.. The model 3 is where the future of Tesla is. And you can bet that vehicle will be directly competing with:

• The BMW i3
• 2nd Generation Nissan Leaf
• 2nd Generation Chevy Volt

By competing, I meant allowing long distance travel in an EV. Absolutely the Volt and i3 allow it. But they are hybrids.

I get the complaint that Elon is pumping the stock but could someone remind me the time frame when the Leaf was announced and when it became available? OEMs pre announce cars all the time. Surely the Volt was announced 2-3 years ahead of time. Now 2nd generation models maybe a different story to not cannibalize sales.

Loren - not sure where all the hostility comes from - directed at Tesla. Lose a lot of money shorting? The fact is that Tesla makes and encourages EVs and this is a forum for a car that is an EV. Tesla (Musk) has a clearly defined vision. You seem to think that large batteries are not viable - too expensive or whatever. Most people who drive a Leaf love the car and would love it even more with ... yep more batteries.

So maybe, just maybe, Tesla has the right idea here. Maybe at $150 or so a kwh, paying $15k for a 100kwh battery and another $15k for a car, and $5k profit is not a bad idea. The only reason to dispute that is that you don't think $150/kwh will ever happen. That seems a bit naive.... Care to bet on it?

 

[evnow]

Bottom line: We can all speculate about what will happen with Tesla, but reality will set in
in 6-9 months, i.e. when/where Giga really happens, the 1st deliveries of CUV, and in the short
term how 2014 ends for Tesla. And to assume like many, that Nissan and other OEMs are "asleep
at the wheel" when it comes to having a Gen 3 type competitive product before 2017 (Gen 3 forecast)
is naive.

Well, your "reality" is also speculation. I hope you realize that.

Having said that - it is quite true that Tesla fans completely ignore the competitive landscape and assume - since today Tesla has no competition in its class, that will always be the case. That is indeed being naïve.

 

[evnow]

Naive?

There are zero concept cars talked about in the horizon that can compete with Tesla. Please find one. (OK there are a few high $ ones) Then give me an example of a new car as different as a 200 mile EV that didn't get pre announced by years. We all expect a Nissan/Infiniti higher range car. But I think we all know that higher range will cost more. They have to undercut Tesla on price by quite a bit to compete with the Model 3.

Next, show me the OEM that has >100 kw fast charging network that is rock solid reliable. Oh wait, show me an OEM that even has >100kw fast charging.

How can anyone compete in the longer distance EV realm without a really fast DC charging network?

Really no "concept" cars ? Oh wait. That is true, including Tesla, nobody has shown a "concept" car with 200 miles range and < $40k.

But we know Nissan and GM have at various points talked specifically about higher range cars - and I assume those would be competitive with Tesla - otherwise why bother ? Nissan isn't going to walk away from their EV leadership without a fight after spending bellions. To assume so would be naïve.

You don't need 100 kw+ to compete. Just as EVs don't need 5 minute refueling to compete with ICE. Don't fall for that trap. Besides, it is kind of weird to assume CHAdeMO speeds can't be improved. That is like saying USB is frozen at introduction point and never improved speed.

 

[evnow]

I have to ask why so many here lump the Volt with BEVs?

Not lumping with BEV - but looking at the broader plugin category.

I expect a lot of current Volt owners to jump on the BEV bandwagon when Model 3 & Leaf 2 come around. But Volt 2 - if they improve the interior utility will become more competitive compared to i3 REx and Energis.

 

[lorenfb]

"So maybe, just maybe, Tesla has the right idea here."

Yes, and Tesla is not alone, i.e. once battery costs come down all OEMs will be there too.

"Maybe at $150 or so a kwh, paying $15k for a 100kwh battery and another $15k for a car, and $5k profit is not a bad idea. The only reason to dispute that is that you don't think $150/kwh will ever happen. That seems a bit naive.... Care to bet on it?"

I agree! It's all about battery costs. The BEV selling price has to be competitive economically for a viable
market when a buyer trades-off overall BEV costs against overall hybrid/ICE costs in the decision process
and finds that the BEV at an advantage. That will be the volume BEV market. When you have products like
the BMW i3 starting at $45K+, few can economically justify that vehicle versus other alternates, whether
hybrid/ICE, and that segment of the BEV market will have limited volume.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I do not believe the Tesla will be competing with LEAF II. if that happens, it would be a mistake on Nissan's part. the LEAF II must come in at a lower price point to be successful and that should not be too difficult to do. Keep in mind; there is still a very significant EV market for 150 mile or less EVs and that is where Nissan should be.

I would look at the infiniti as possible competition but even the extended range LEAF is going to be much cheaper than the Tesla

What *I* expect

25-33% range increase at current pricing. (roughly based on 6-8% a year performance increase)

same range (roughly 90 miles or whatever) for less, thinking as least a $2,000-$3,000 discount or so

75-100% range increase for $3,000 to oooh, say $5499 more

That should still put the LEAF about $7,000 to 10,000 under the Tesla. Less range yes but the percentage of people who need more than that is pretty small, the ones willing to pay Tesla's prices, even smaller

as we all know, a signficant portion of the general membership here is willing and able to pay more than most

 

[Stanton]

25-33% range increase at current pricing. (roughly based on 6-8% a year performance increase)

same range (roughly 90 miles or whatever) for less, thinking as least a $2,000-$3,000 discount or so

75-100% range increase for $3,000 to oooh, say $5499 more

That should still put the LEAF about $7,000 to 10,000 under the Tesla. Less range yes but the percentage of people who need more than that is pretty small, the ones willing to pay Tesla's prices, even smaller

I agree with this prognostication, and I believe that's where the next Nissan/Infinity is headed. The fact is, even if I could/would by a Tesla, I wouldn't use it as a "road trip" car. I still think the sweet spot for a BEV is as a local/commuter car, albeit with a real world range (hot/cold/etc) closer to 150 miles than 100.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

25-33% range increase at current pricing. (roughly based on 6-8% a year performance increase)

same range (roughly 90 miles or whatever) for less, thinking as least a $2,000-$3,000 discount or so

75-100% range increase for $3,000 to oooh, say $5499 more

That should still put the LEAF about $7,000 to 10,000 under the Tesla. Less range yes but the percentage of people who need more than that is pretty small, the ones willing to pay Tesla's prices, even smaller

I agree with this prognostication, and I believe that's where the next Nissan/Infinity is headed. The fact is, even if I could/would by a Tesla, I wouldn't use it as a "road trip" car. I still think the sweet spot for a BEV is as a local/commuter car, albeit with a real world range (hot/cold/etc) closer to 150 miles than 100.

I agree. If I had a Tesla, I would not likely use it for a road trip either. I got a gasser to use when the LEAF did not work and I have 3,000 miles on it (roughly 1200 of it was to keep it from sitting too long) and the LEAF works for the most part. I do have a "guaranteed" gasser trip that the new LEAF or Tesla could cover to Grays Harbor, WA which has ZERO public charging options.

I have been out there with my LEAF a few times but always during overnight camping trips. The area is a very popular destination in Summer due to ocean beaches, etc but the State has not seen fit to install anything there which is a mistake. I think it would be a great way to direct tourist dollars to one of the most neediest areas of the State.

 

[bbrowncods]

25-33% range increase at current pricing. (roughly based on 6-8% a year performance increase)

same range (roughly 90 miles or whatever) for less, thinking as least a $2,000-$3,000 discount or so

75-100% range increase for $3,000 to oooh, say $5499 more

That should still put the LEAF about $7,000 to 10,000 under the Tesla. Less range yes but the percentage of people who need more than that is pretty small, the ones willing to pay Tesla's prices, even smaller

I agree with this prognostication, and I believe that's where the next Nissan/Infinity is headed. The fact is, even if I could/would by a Tesla, I wouldn't use it as a "road trip" car. I still think the sweet spot for a BEV is as a local/commuter car, albeit with a real world range (hot/cold/etc) closer to 150 miles than 100.

+1 Road trips in a BEV will not be common until infrastructure is mature. Think early days of ICE vehicles: Mostly in town until gas stations dotted the highways. The same will need to occur for BEVs with QC station numbers and reduced charge times. This will take place over the next 5 years. Even so, there is still great potential for the 100-150 mile BEV that is in the 25-30K range.
I consider the Leaf today in the 75 mile range catagory until there are QC stations available to get me beyond that (in my location). Some in CA, and other pockets, are already there.

 

[lorenfb]

What hasn't been discussed much, if any, is the home charging capabilities necessitated when the range
doubles, i.e. battery capacity doubles. Presently with a 20-25 kWhr battery, home charging at 120 VAC
is practical while obtaining a power company's special EV rates, i.e. generally from 12:00AM to 6:00AM,
even though the required total charging time (~10hrs) exceeds the special rate time.

When the battery capacities double, home charging at 120VAC and obtaining the special power rates will
be impractical. So at 120VAC the charging time will approach 16-20 hrs for a 50 kWhr (range 150 -175
miles) and this for many will be undesirable. Thus requiring a new BEV owner to upgrade their home
electrical system, like many Tesla owners do, which becomes problematic in the BEV purchase process
when one considers moving from a hybrid/ICE to a BEV.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

What hasn't been discussed much, if any, is the home charging capabilities necessitated when the range
doubles, i.e. battery capacity doubles. Presently with a 20-25 kWhr battery, home charging at 120 VAC
is practical while obtaining a power company's special EV rates, i.e. generally from 12:00AM to 6:00AM,
even though the required total charging time (~10hrs) exceeds the special rate time.

When the battery capacities double, home charging at 120VAC and obtaining the special power rates will
be impractical. So at 120VAC the charging time will approach 16-20 hrs for a 50 kWhr (range 150 -175
miles) and this for many will be undesirable. Thus requiring a new BEV owner to upgrade their home
electrical system, like many Tesla owners do, which becomes problematic in the BEV purchase process
when one considers moving from a hybrid/ICE to a BEV.

one can only guess but I was hoping that Nissan would go with a 10 KW home charging option. That way I could just go with an Electric Stove adapter to replace my electric Dryer adapter with my EVSE upgrade version 3

 

[WetEV]

When the battery capacities double, home charging at 120VAC and obtaining the special power rates will be impractical.

Many people have found that home charging at 120V is impractical with the current sized batteries. 220V 15 Amp is twice the power, and is likely to fit into all but the oldest of homes.