2014 July Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 3019 , Total 10533

[mkjayakumar]

2015 Leafs will not sell at 3000+ per month going forward unless Nissan gets the residual back to the same levels as what they did for 2014s.


Now what is Nissan going to do with all the leases that are going to come back in the the thousands this year? Since the beginning of last year, it would seem that almost all sales are leases only, with no one actually buying their Leaf at the end of their lease. Unless Nissan finds a way to re-furbish them with 12 bars and then re-lease them for a good price there is no future for them.

 

[abasile]

Now what is Nissan going to do with all the leases that are going to come back in the the thousands this year? Since the beginning of last year, it would seem that almost all sales are leases only, with no one actually buying their Leaf at the end of their lease. Unless Nissan finds a way to re-furbish them with 12 bars and then re-lease them for a good price there is no future for them.

The "future" for these vehicles is to simply sell them at auction, just like many other off-lease cars. The availability of cheap, used LEAFs will give more people the opportunity to drive EVs. Even if a LEAF is missing a chunk of its original battery capacity, it can be very useful for local driving/commuting. I'm pretty sure it doesn't make economic sense to swap battery packs just for resale.

 

[DanCar]

... I'm pretty sure it doesn't make economic sense to swap battery packs just for resale.

True. Might make sense as an owner though, to plop down $5.5k to get 95 mile range. More true 3-5 years down the road when 150 mile battery pack is available. Might be even more interesting if 3rd party pack is available, made from Tesla gigafactory.

 

[mkjayakumar]

so a leaf with with a residual of $15K would sell perhaps for $10k at auction? So Nissan ends up with a $5k loss ?

 

[Assaf]

@abasile +1. In fact, in "hot" Leaf markets I doubt that they'll need an auction. From what I've heard, they sell reasonably well.

As a case in point, we turned in our 2012 Leaf and got a late 2014 one 3 weeks ago. The 2012 had 8.4k miles on it. I don't see why they can't get $15k for it from someone. People around here are aware of and curious about the Leaf, and many don't like leasing, or don't like buying new.

An almost new 5-seat commute car for ~$15k and near-zero maintenance and fuel costs, sounds like a good deal to me.

Nissan doesn't need to, and I think cannot, re-lease them. But they can offer finance for those who don't have $15k cash set aside. And anyway, I doubt that they lose money on a Leaf even if they get only $10k on the resale.

Think about a 2-year lease: ~$6-8k from the buyer (down+payments)
$7.5k from Feds
$10-18k on resale.

At this point I don't think it costs them $25k to make these anymore. So they're making money regardless of the fact that they're still ramping up and willing to absorb some negative margin as investment.

 

[evnow]

2015 Leafs will not sell at 3000+ per month going forward unless Nissan gets the residual back to the same levels as what they did for 2014s.

2014 residuals were already very low. What is the 2015 residual (for 2 yrs and 3 yrs) ?

From the leasing thread. for 2014 (at some point) ...

SL (24mo) MF 0.00170 residual 56%
SL (36mo) MF 0.00068 residual 43%

SV (24mo) MF 0.00163 residual 55%
SV (36mo) MF 0.00043 residual 42%

 

[Anonymous]

is there any reason Spark EV doesn't sell very well? Looks like a great little package to me, but we don't get any over here.

The one word answer; battery

Correct word is : Inventory

The Spark EV is a compliance car produced in small numbers by GM subsidiary in Korea and imported in low numbers.

The change for the 2015 model year is the battery is now sourced from the same cells as used in the Volt, which should reduce manufacturing cost.

 

[adric22]

One issue BMW may be having is lack of quick charge infrastructure compatible with their ASE standard. One of the things driving Leaf sales right now is the "no charge to charge" agreements with EVGO and other companies. However, I know BMW is working on expanding their stations. So that will take some time, but may eventually help. In the meantime they can sell the Rex as an alternative to QC.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

is there any reason Spark EV doesn't sell very well? Looks like a great little package to me, but we don't get any over here.

The one word answer; battery

Correct word is : Inventory

The Spark EV is a compliance car produced in small numbers by GM subsidiary in Korea and imported in low numbers.

The change for the 2015 model year is the battery is now sourced from the same cells as used in the Volt, which should reduce manufacturing cost.

no, its battery. the question was why do we sell 2015's in 2014. the reason is the change in the battery.

the Spark mention was a sidestep that I chose not to answer because I did not have the time to write a book on the Sparks shortcomings

 

[GRA]

The one word answer; battery

Correct word is : Inventory

The Spark EV is a compliance car produced in small numbers by GM subsidiary in Korea and imported in low numbers.

The change for the 2015 model year is the battery is now sourced from the same cells as used in the Volt, which should reduce manufacturing cost.

no, its battery. the question was why do we sell 2015's in 2014. the reason is the change in the battery.

the Spark mention was a sidestep that I chose not to answer because I did not have the time to write a book on the Sparks shortcomings

No, I think SmartElectric got it right, the Spark's relatively low sales are due to it only being sold in two states at the moment with limited advertising, and likely to remain so at least for the next year. I would also have preferred that they keep the LiFePo4 battery and th taller gear ratio rather than replace it with the smaller LiMn2O4 made by LGChem and the shorter ratio for the 2015 MY, but it's a straight cost/benefit tradeoff for GM. CCS #s are growing in the only two states in which the car is sold, so that's less of an issue than it could have been. The 3.3 kW OBC remains the car's biggest shortcoming vis-a-vis its competitors.

If you don't need room for five, I think it and the 500e are at the head of the class among the compliance BEVs currently. Car and Driver certainly thinks the Spark EV is tops. I suspect that when the Soul EV debuts it will negatively affect sales of the compliance cars as well as the LEAF.

 

[evnow]

I suspect that when the Soul EV debuts it will negatively affect sales of the compliance cars as well as the LEAF.

Isn't Soul EV a compliance car with very limited production (some 1k or so per year) ?

 

[GRA]

I suspect that when the Soul EV debuts it will negatively affect sales of the compliance cars as well as the LEAF.

Isn't Soul EV a compliance car with very limited production (some 1k or so per year) ?

IIRR they are starting in the CARB states, with plans to expand to the rest of the country 'as demand develops', or words to that effect. The reason I think it will eat into sales of the LEAF especially is that it's the first direct CHAdeMO-equipped competition for it with a bigger battery, which should at least offset its worse CdA on the highway, and will probably increase its range vs. the LEAF around town - I expect it will exceed 90 miles EPA. Also, the heated battery and driver-only HVAC option should boost its winter range significantly over the LEAF in colder areas. The gas Soul has been pretty popular as well.

My assumption re sales is based on Kia not choosing to price it as badly as GM did with the ELR. If they can price it for no more than $35k, I think it will do well. Now, about those colors! :shock: :roll:

 

[evnow]

 

[mkjayakumar]

For Tesla 500 is too low an estimate for July.

 

[KJD]

For Tesla 500 is too low an estimate for July.

As foretold by the company, Summer of 2014 can loosely be translated as “no soup for you” United States.
Relatively speaking, very little production and/or deliveries of the Model S occurred in July on US soil as Tesla focused on China as well as fulfilling RHD commitments to places like Hong Kong and the UK.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[lorenfb]

For Tesla 500 is too low an estimate for July.

You'll have to wait until late October or early November for the actual July (Q3) data from Tesla.
But based on the recent stock price increase, the market thinks Tesla sales are on target
or better and basically discounts insideevs data which would indicate U.S. demand has
dropped. Yes, Tesla has shipped a lot of units to China & Europe lately, but you wouldn't
have thought to such an extent to affect U.S. deliveries.

 

[WetEV]

On the subject of the listing given, is there any reason Spark EV doesn't sell very well? Looks like a great little package to me, but we don't get any over here.

Spark EV is a compliance car. Sold only for legal reasons only in California. Sold in very and precise numbers to just match the legal requirements only.

Tesla Model S is sold for profit. While the company hasn't made enough to cover R&D, the cars make money, the more Tesla can make and sell, the more money the company can make.

Nissan Leaf doesn't have the details about profitability released. Nissan has designed a car that should (IMNHO) be manufacturable for a profit for well below the current price. Nissan might be now be making a profit on each car. I doubt if they have covered R&D costs yet.

 

[DanCar]

... Nissan might be now be making a profit on each car. I doubt if they have covered R&D costs yet.

I suspect Nissan will be making a big profit on the Leaf. Not from selling the Leaf, but from free marketing (from many of us here), name recognition, and getting people into the showrooms. Nissan profits are up compared to competitors since the leaf has been introduced.
http://www.torquenews.com/1080/nissan-leaf-sales-pummel-market-growth" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[ydnas7]

For Tesla 500 is too low an estimate for July.

You'll have to wait until late October or early November for the actual July (Q3) data from Tesla.
But based on the recent stock price increase, the market thinks Tesla sales are on target
or better and basically discounts insideevs data which would indicate U.S. demand has
dropped. Yes, Tesla has shipped a lot of units to China & Europe lately, but you wouldn't
have thought to such an extent to affect U.S. deliveries.

The market couldn't car less if US deliveries tanked because of deliveries to overseas.
Tesla deposits have kept going up (its now $228m), so demand has increased.

A dedicated car carrier ship can take 4-5000 new cars. If Tesla so wanted, they could save money (improve margin) by filling a ship for Asia, and then a ship for Europe, and skip an entire quarter in the USA for deliveries. Then some spoiled brat Americans might take a baseball bat to their delayed Tesla.

 

[lorenfb]

"The market couldn't car less if US deliveries tanked because of deliveries to overseas."

Really? Don't think so!

Reality will eventually 'get' Tesla especially when Elon's hyperbole runs out.