2014 August Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 3186 ,Total 11803

[c1987]

1025 I3's in August? Surprise to me. I sat in one and found I could not drive it due to too small of an interior. My head hit the roof with the seat all the way back and down.

 

[Nubo]

So, you think Tesla will sell 200k cars in the US before they release the gen 3? It would be great if they did, but, I don't see it likely.

I think Tesla will sell 200k cars in the US before the the base 200mile gen3 is released.
I also expect Tesla to sell higher spec Gen 3 Tesla's as part of that 200k.
I also expect Tesla production to increase about 80% each year anyway....and the Model X to be more popular than the model S.

+1, I'm thinking the Model X will be their Killer App, at least until Model 3 comes along. I think there's a bigger market for a capable CUV than for old-man sedans.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

have to go with the 3000+ for pretty much the rest of the year. we should see some accelerating figures though closing in on 3500 or 4000 soon though.

InsideEVs is reporting over 4000 for Leaf.

ok then... REAL soon!

 

[lorenfb]

1025 I3's in August? Surprise to me. I sat in one and found I could not drive it due to too small of an interior. My head hit the roof with the seat all the way back and down.

Questionable number, so will it be sustainable?

 

[RegGuheert]

Nissan did set a record though in August - 3,186 sold

Nissan LEAF Sets All Time EV Sales Record For August In US
http://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-august-2014-us-sales-set-record/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

About 4,500 LEAFs are currently available to be sold. This is still not as high as we (or likely Nissan) would like it, but it is a vast improvement from where there company has been in the past.

Assuming that the new battery chemistry addresses some or most of the calendar losses previously seen, Nissan will not have as severe a problem with LEAF inventory sitting on lots as they did previously.

 

[edatoakrun]

Looks like Nissan may hold onto over 50% of US BEV market (and Nissan-Renault over 50% of worldwide BEV market?) for the foreseeable future.

Nissan did set a record though in August - 3,186 sold

Nissan LEAF Sets All Time EV Sales Record For August In US
http://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-august-2014-us-sales-set-record/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

About 4,500 LEAFs are currently available to be sold. This is still not as high as we (or likely Nissan) would like it, but it is a vast improvement from where there company has been in the past.

Assuming that the new battery chemistry addresses some or most of the calendar losses previously seen, Nissan will not have as severe a problem with LEAF inventory sitting on lots as they did previously.

Nissan's only "severe... problem with LEAF inventory" has been not being able to maintain sufficient inventory, due to its inability to increase production fast enough to meet US demand.

It does look like US LEAF production is ~4,000 per month now, so Nissan may be planning to either increase exports, or US sales in the future.

Nissan's plans will largely depend (IMO) on how serious Kia will be with the Soul, which may be the first BEV offering the LEAF some real (non-compliance) competition in the American market.

 

[RegGuheert]

Nissan's only "severe... problem with LEAF inventory" has been not being able to maintain sufficient inventory, due to its inability to increase production fast enough to meet US demand.

Sure, but the primary limitation appears to have been self-imposed: Nissan chose to not ramp up battery production while they were in somewhat of a crisis. Instead, they have held off a ramp-up of battery production until they felt they could put a product into the broader market that would not bring down the entire project.

In other words, while we at MNL don't yet have the capacity-loss characteristics of the new 2015 battery the ramp-up implies to me that Nissan must be pleased with what they are seeing. It will likely be a year or two before we start to get a glimpse of the current battery's capacity-retention performance.

 

[evnow]

Sure, but the primary limitation appears to have been self-imposed: Nissan chose to not ramp up battery production while they were in somewhat of a crisis. Instead, they have held off a ramp-up of battery production until they felt they could put a product into the broader market that would not bring down the entire project.

Battery takes time to cure - so it is difficult to do some kind of "JIT" parts management with batteries.

Also, Nissan has to be cautious given the low uptake couple of years back.

 

[RegGuheert]

Why the huge drop in the PiPs this month? Down to 818 from 1371 last month. :shock:

Virtually everyone else did well: LEAF, Volt, i3, the Ford PHEVs, etc.

Edit: I guess I could have read the InsideEVs article:

We do have to note, this was/is not a reflection on the demand for the car as…well, there isn’t any. Toyota has less than 100 model year 2015s at dealerships to end out the month.

So, does Toyota not even want to sell PHEVs? As InsideEVs said:

The allure of the car, now from $29,990, has essentially meant Toyota can set the amount they want to sell as a function of how many they build.

 

[ydnas7]

In other words, while we at MNL don't yet have the capacity-loss characteristics of the new 2015 battery the ramp-up implies to me that Nissan must be pleased with what they are seeing. It will likely be a year or two before we start to get a glimpse of the current battery's capacity-retention performance.

In a couple of years, Nissan may using 5.0V li ion.

By the time the consumers understand a battery, its time for a new battery.

Hypothetical question
Would the market prefer a battery with 30% more range OR a battery with 300% more longevity?
for similar prices

 

[RegGuheert]

Hypothetical question
Would the market prefer a battery with 30% more range OR a battery with 300% more longevity?
for similar prices

I cannot speak for the rest of the market, but I prefer the 4X battery life. The alternative is a car which quickly becomes useless for the primary mission it was bought to perform. We have heard that story too many times around here.

Unfortunately, I think Nissan has had to delay releasing more capacity while they built in more longevity.

 

[JeremyW]

Would the market prefer a battery with 30% more range OR a battery with 300% more longevity?
for similar prices

The market prefers both. Why is this ether or?! :lol:

 

[evnow]

The market prefers both. Why is this ether or?! :lol:

Because they have to optimize the battery one way or the other. But I do think these are not real engineering choices ...

 

[lorenfb]

Hypothetical question
Would the market prefer a battery with 30% more range OR a battery with 300% more longevity?
for similar prices

I cannot speak for the rest of the market, but I prefer the 4X battery life. The alternative is a car which quickly becomes useless for the primary mission it was bought to perform. We have heard that story too many times around here.

Unfortunately, I think Nissan has had to delay releasing more capacity while they built in more longevity.

Most, i.e. present Leaf owners and potential buyers, would agree with that, given the cost to replace a battery.

 

[surfingslovak]

1025 I3's in August? Surprise to me. I sat in one and found I could not drive it due to too small of an interior. My head hit the roof with the seat all the way back and down.

Questionable number, so will it be sustainable?

Why would the number be questionable?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

1025 I3's in August? Surprise to me. I sat in one and found I could not drive it due to too small of an interior. My head hit the roof with the seat all the way back and down.

Questionable number, so will it be sustainable?

Why would the number be questionable?

I dont think he means questionable as inflated. just a poor choice of words. I think he means that the number is not sustainable. that its the result of built up demand. I also feel this way at least for the short term. But I also feel that 25% of all cars sold will be plug ins by 2020

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Hypothetical question
Would the market prefer a battery with 30% more range OR a battery with 300% more longevity?
for similar prices

I cannot speak for the rest of the market, but I prefer the 4X battery life. The alternative is a car which quickly becomes useless for the primary mission it was bought to perform. We have heard that story too many times around here.

Unfortunately, I think Nissan has had to delay releasing more capacity while they built in more longevity.

pretty weak choices here.

1) the 30 % range is a given so I feel ZERO need to include it in a trade off.

2) longer battery life is the obvious choice but at what cost? financially or technically speaking.

3) there is no real reason to expect or desire both.


I think the biggest hurdle is still cost. The first wave of EVers generally have the money but the 2nd wave is much more budget conscious. If two cars came out; one the current LEAF but at $20,000 and its 80 whatever mile range verses a new LEAF at the current 30 whatever thousand but had 125 miles of freeway range, what would sell more?

here, its the latter but in the real world, I am betting the short range cheaper LEAF would out sell the expensive longer range LEAF more than 2 to 1

 

[evnow]

I've the updated tables & charts for August.

I've plotted the 12 month moving total and extrapolated it to Dec '15. It shows about 125k for this year and 160k for next year as the totals.

 

[TomT]

I wonder how much the i3 sales are going to drop once the fan-boy base is fulfilled?

 

[Berlino]

.. But I also feel that 25% of all cars sold will be plug ins by 2020

Absolutely, if the world were sane.