Wholesale value of the 2011 Leaf @Auction March 2018

[hyperlexis]

Despite last months downward adjustment in wholesale values for all used cars, this month the value of a 2011 LEAF SL is starting to make a rebound, especially for average and "high" mileage vehicles. This is primarily because of the ever growing increase in demand for new LEAFs and that Nissan's US manufacturing capacity for the LEAF is currently at maximum capacity and is expected to remain that way for possible the next 2 quarters. This has created a supply/demand imbalance for new cars that used LEAFs are filling in that gap...

The return of ~$4 gas has probably also goosed all used BEV prices, IMO.

The few recent EBAY LEAF sales also seem to reflect this trend towards price increases:

http://motors.completed.shop.ebay.com/Cars-Trucks-/6001/i.html?LH_Complete=1&Make=Nissan&_nkw=leaf%20&_cqr=true&_dmpt=US_Cars_Trucks&_gcs=13&_ipg=50&_nkwusc=LEAQF&_pcats=6000&_sofindtype=22&_sop=7&_rdc=2&_trksid=m194&ssPageName=STRK:MEFSRCHX:SRCH" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I've been telling a few of my LEAF-curious friends for a while now that a 2011 may be a better buy than a new LEAF, but maybe the bargains are drying up.

...I just test drove a used 2011 SL Leaf today -- the (very rural) Nissan dealer's lone Leaf, with 25k miles and 4 bars lost ....

Isn't an 8-bar LEAF a great buy right now?

As long as it's under 60 k miles, isn't it eligible for immediate battery replacement under the warrantee?

It was just at the limit of being eligible (3 bars? 4?) If it loses that one remaining, then it would trigger the warranty. Insane that Nissan would even allow one of its dealers to sell such a car -- I would have thought the dealer could have asked Nissan to repair the battery before they put it on their lot.

 

[smkettner]

Is the 60/60 capacity warranty good for only the original owner?

 

[rmay635703]

Too bad a list like this for the volt doesn't exist

Anyway I am still wondering how this curve will change after the first round of 011 Leafs come off lease?

That should be starting soon (December)

 

[marcin]

Does 2012 SL with 9k mi, for $20.5 sound good from a dealer? In service date of May 11, 2011.

 

[evnow]

Does 2012 SL with 9k mi, for $20.5 sound good from a dealer? In service date of May 11, 2011.

No. For a few thousand more you can get a '13 SV, with heat pump (very useful in cold climate) and 6kW charger. Infact just lease the '13 Leaf. Don't buy a '12 Leaf.

At the going rate of lease, you can pay for about 7 years of SV lease using that $20k. Not sure the battery on that '12 Leaf will last that long without degradation.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Dumb question but is it possible for an individual to obtain one of these vehicles without going to an auction or being a commercial dealer? How is it done?

I just test drove a used 2011 SL Leaf today -- the (very rural) Nissan dealer's lone Leaf, with 25k miles and 4 bars lost -- the car was originally from Phoenix. The manager knew the battery was damaged but refused to negotiate off his sale price of over $16,000. I think he thinks someone will buy it without knowing about the bad battery. The test drive of maybe 15 miles burned up about 35 miles on the display. I got back to the dealer with a blinking 6 miles left on the meter. Bad battery.

I told him I liked the car (even though it lacked seat heaters...) and would buy it for $12k because of the battery concern, plus I would pay extra for whatever an extended warranty would cost from Nissan. Nada. Wouldn't negotiate anything. Also he said Nissan wouldn't fix/replace the battery for him. That was shocking. So, Nissan's own dealers are knowingly selling these damaged old Phoenix cars. It's shameful.

Oh well it wasn't meant to be. If I could ever find a good Leaf at auction or a dealer with a good battery, I'd pay the fair market value for the peace of mind of the battery. But for a Leaf with a damaged pack, to pay the same would be like buying a car that needs an engine rebuild for the same cost as one with a good motor.

Your offer of $12k for that is reasonable. $16k is daylight robbery. That car is semi-trashed until the battery is replaced and it will just get worse.

Go to cars.com and look online, find a newer Leaf and have it shipped. Force the seller first to take a picture of it at 100% charge with all bars, lots of dealers are selling these and no reason to deal with that podunk dealer who is trying to rip somebody off.

As long as it's under 60 k miles, isn't it eligible for immediate battery replacement under the warrantee?

It could be. I'd definitely confirm unequivocally with nissan's warranty department first and give them the VIN while doing so.

Does 2012 SL with 9k mi, for $20.5 sound good from a dealer? In service date of May 11, 2011.

It's not ghastly, but I concur with those stressing the desire to lease this vehicle at least until its resale becomes a bit more predictable, and in any case the new ones are appreciably better than the old (range).

 

[thankyouOB]

Does 2012 SL with 9k mi, for $20.5 sound good from a dealer? In service date of May 11, 2011.

no, with credit and rebate, that is what i paid new for a 2011.

 

[rmay635703]

Hmm, this thread seems to have gone amuk, any updates?

 

[cwerdna]

I wasn't sure if I should post this here or another thread...

I stumbled across this as it was on the front page of Yahoo last night...

Power Failure: Electric Vehicles Top List Of Cars And Trucks That Depreciate The Fastest:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhenry/2013/11/26/short-shelf-life-which-cars-and-trucks-depreciate-the-fastest/?partner=yahootix" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

On a list of predicted residual values for 2013 models produced by ALG Inc., the bottom three examples are the battery powered Nissan Leaf; the Lincoln MKS, a more upscale, expensive cousin to the Ford Taurus; and the Mercedes-Benz CL Class, a two-door version of the flagship S Class sedan, which is about to be replaced.

All are predicted to retain about 36 percent of their original sticker price after 36 months, according to ALG.

That makes the Nissan Leaf worth a predicted $10,555 after 36 months
...
Residual values are expressed as a percentage of the original sticker price. If the sticker price is high – like it is for EVs and for really expensive luxury cars – that makes it tougher percentage-wise.

In addition, electric vehicles come with a federal tax credit of $7,500. For all intents and purposes, that comes straight off the sticker price. However, to be consistent with other cars, analysts don’t factor in the tax break when calculating residual values. EVs like the Nissan Leaf would perform a lot better in residual values if the tax break were factored in.

Hmmm... I have a 2 year lease on my '13 Leaf. I wonder if I can pick up a 3 year old Leaf at that point (it'll unfortunately be a '12) for ~$10.5K at that point.

 

[OrientExpress]

Its been since July when I posted the last national wholesale actuals for a 2011 LEAF SL, so it is time for a new one. One of the things that I saw with this late November data was that residual values have flattened out, as would be expected for a 2-3 year old car. These values are what Licensed Automobile Dealers are buying and selling used 2011 LEAFs to each other for resale on the retail market across the US. These prices do represent the high side of what the "trade-in value" is for a 2011 LEAF SL that a LEAF owner might receive at a dealer.

when compared to July.

Looking at these actuals shows that wholesale transaction prices have effectively Increased in value, given that in July an "average" car had 11K miles on it, while currently that car has 23K on it, but prices of cars on the block have decreased only about $800. The number of cars going through auction has started to increase given than the 1st wave of 2011 cars are now starting to be at the end of their lease and are starting to go through the wholesale system into the resale market.

All in all, the 2011 LEAF SL wholesale values continue to perform at an average rate compared to other vehicles of their size, year and mileage.

A quick comment on the arguments made in the article "Power Failure: Electric Vehicles Top List Of Cars And Trucks That Depreciate The Fastest:"

In reading the article, the author makes comparisons of electric and ICE vehicles using a basis of gross MSRP instead of net MSRP. As you know, the basis for an EV should be its net MSRP (i.e. MSRP minus federal and state incentives). When residual comparisons are made this way, the residuals are completely in line with comparable ICE cars, and in some cases better.

 

[greenleaf]

Any update on auction values? Thanks.

 

[OrientExpress]

Here are the February wholesale auction actuals for a 2011 LEAF SL. Now that there are starting to be a larger number of higher mileage cars coming off of lease, the auction values have shown a slightly higher monthly drop in value due to slowing demand of used LEAFs. Used LEAF demand at retail is tempered by very attractive lease offers for 2013/2014 cars which has attributed to the current values.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Here are the February wholesale auction actuals for a 2011 LEAF SL. Now that there are starting to be a larger number of higher mileage cars coming off of lease, the auction values have shown a slightly higher monthly drop in value due to slowing demand of used LEAFs. Used LEAF demand at retail is tempered by very attractive lease offers for 2013/2014 cars which has attributed to the current values.

Interesting. That is a precipitous drop in value. Nissan will get hosed on some of the lease turn ins from people who don't offer to buy out.

 

[OrientExpress]

Interesting. That is a precipitous drop in value. Nissan will get hosed on some of the lease turn ins from people who don't offer to buy out.

Yes, and no, this sort of year-end drop is typical across all brands and models, as manufacturers are incentivising dealers to clear out the older models as the new models start to fill the pipeline. If someone is in the market for a car, new or used, December is the month to buy. Used values will rebound somewhat as we move toward the prime spring and summer buying season.

 

[dhanson865]

the numbers don't show on this PC, had to pull it up on my phone to see

average Dec (month) 2013 $13,404
average (week ending) Jan 29 2014 $13,596
average (week ending) Feb 10 2014 $13,200

estimated Mar 2014 $12,650
estimated Feb 2014 $3,175 (looks like the system thinks a Leaf will be nearly worthless in a years time)


I guess we can assume any drastic change in value shown in that program to be invalid and ignore it, waiting for new numbers later?

 

[OrientExpress]

Yeah, the long lead estimates on the Manheim site are very rarely accurate. I doubt that the Feb 2015 auction price will be that low.

For example, here is the January 2014 Estimates from January 2013 that forecast that the wholesale/retail numbers would be $6875/$9300, and they turned out to be $13200/$17350.

 

[dhanson865]

yeah, now tell me when Manheim/Kelly/anybody starts including battery SOH % or bars remaining in addition to miles in their valuation formulas.

There is a world of difference in value between a 8 bar leaf with 59,000 miles on it and a 8 bar leaf with 61,000 miles on it.

There is a similar difference in value between a 8 bar leaf, 10 bar leaf, and 12 bar leaf all with 61,000 miles on them.

But you don't see any used cars detailing the battery condition and none of the dealers understand it either.

 

[OrientExpress]

yeah, now tell me when Manheim/Kelly/anybody starts including battery SOH % or bars remaining in addition to miles in their valuation formulas.

Could you describe what an ICE analog might be?

 

[smkettner]

Could you describe what an ICE analog might be?

Analog? Makes me think of points and condenser ignition. An actual mechanical switch.

 

[OrientExpress]

let me put it this way, what thing in an ICE has the equivalent weight in determining the value of that kind of automobile, and how is it measured.