Which will sell more, Leaf, Volt or PiP?

[mitch672]

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1076241_which-will-sell-more-volt-leaf-or-plug-in-prius" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Flame on

 

[garsh]

Plug-in Prius, by far.

 

[mitch672]

Toyota is only making 15,000 Plug in Priu for 2012, so that's 1 limiting factor.
Also the Leaf with its $7,500 Federal tax credit is about the same price as the base model PiP with its $2,500 Federal tax credit. For those that want access to the CA HOV lanes, it could be any of the 3, the base model PiP is probably the "easy" solution, but if you have a multiple car family, the Leaf woud be the best choice.

 

[cwerdna]

I haven't read the article but I'm guessing, by the end of 2012, for the US:
PiP > Volt > Leaf or possibly
Volt > PiP > Leaf

The CA HOV sticker eligibility of the PiP and newer eAT-PZEV Volts adds two more choices. There's no range anxiety on the PiP and Volt although the less interior room, relatively poor CS mileage and "required" premium gas might make the Volt less attractive.

People who don't know any better might be attracted to the Volt and PiP due to not being pushed into having to spend $1500+ on a L2 EVSE (yeah yeah, I know it's not required for the Leaf... but still).

 

[scottf200]

The PiP sales will be boosted by those wanting them for HOV access. So after a few months it'll be interesting to see how the sales continue. Obviously, the Volt sales are boosted by HOV access as well for a while.

Interesting article and quotes in this article:
banished-from-the-h-o-v-lane-prius-drivers-may-be-first-to-embrace-new-plug-in-model/
Banished from the H.O.V. Lane, Prius Drivers May Be First to Embrace New Plug-In Model - NYTimes.com

California is already the country’s strongest market for alternative-powertrain cars, including the Prius. Sam Butto, a Toyota spokesman, said that California sales accounted for one out of every four in the United States.

“When those cars were eligible for California’s H.O.V. lanes, we sold out our allotment in no time,” Mr. Butto said. “We expect that the ability to use the H.O.V. lanes will be one of the most popular reasons people will buy the Prius Plug-In Hybrid. We may sell one in three or one in four of our plug-in hybrids in California.”

According to Scott Doggett, an editor at Edmunds’ AutoObserver.com, “When the H.O.V. access for California hybrids went away, it left thousands of drivers very frustrated, because their commute times had doubled or tripled. The ability to use H.O.V. lanes is a very good marketing tool for Toyota.”

 

[Herm]

In California the PIP is the lowest cost unlimited range solution to getting the HOV lane, at $28k.. vs a Volt at $31k. I suspect some PIP owners will never bother to plug it in. These people just want the sticker. Plus a Prius has proven high resale value and reliability.

 

[cwerdna]

In California the PIP is the lowest cost unlimited range solution to getting the HOV lane, at $28k.. vs a Volt at $31k. I suspect some PIP owners will never bother to plug it in. These people just want the sticker. Plus a Prius has proven high resale value and reliability.

Well, there's also the CNG Civic (http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-natural-gas/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, formerly the Civic GX). I've been seeing more and more those recently.

For those not in CA, one can see which vehicles qualify for white and green HOV stickers. The yellow ones for non-PHEV hybrids have expired and won't be renewed. (Mine are still on my Prius, even though they're useless now.)

I agree, I bet a certain % of PiP owners will never plug in.

 

[planet4ever]

I agree, I bet a certain % of PiP owners will never plug in.

Sadly, I'll have to agree with you. And why should they? We're talking about folks who probably don't have solar panels or TOU electric rates. Many of them are in high electric tiers in California, paying $0.30/kWh or more on the margin. Not being EV fanatics, they might get 3 m/kWh wall to wheels, so electricity could cost them 10 cents a mile or more. Even at the current $4.50/gal gas price in California, if they manage 50 MPG they will be paying only 9 cents a mile for gasoline.

Ray

 

[DANandNAN]

PiP > Volt > Leaf or possibly
Volt > PiP > Leaf

It'll be the PiP selling the most I'm sure, but the 15k limit will make it close. The Chevy has already sold 5,300 so it's 1/3 of the way there but I still think the PiP will outsell.

It's a shame really. Most folks could make it through their day with a Leaf or Volt using no gas but they'll buy the PiP with it's 6-11 "EV" range and burn gasoline on a daily basis for most of their commutes.

 

[mitch672]

Yes, but you do need to remember, a BEV won't work for everyone, for example, my daily commute is only 30 miles, sounds like a no-brainer, the issue is, i'm single and don't want to own 2 cars (with 2 insurance payments and associated costs), I do have 100+ mile highway days multiple days per month.. So some of us have to compromise to only owning 1 vehicle, and right now the choices are PiP or Volt, soon Ford will have another choice as well, the Ford Energi Hybrid (and they are also comming out with a plug in hybrid as well)

Also, if your 1 way commute is short and has stop & go traffic, and you can plug in at work, you can actually get most of your commuting on EV, even with a PiP, i'm at %63 EV for the last 2 weeks, 450+ miles, estimated gas usage just 3 gallons.. Will have better details when filled up next Saturday.

Ford C-Max hybrid: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1076274_2013-ford-c-max-hybrid-available-to-order-now-from-25995" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ford C-Max Energi plug in hybrid minivan: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1071702_ford-c-max-energi-plug-in-hybrid-minivan-video" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[HighDesertDriver]

PiP > Volt > Leaf

+1 because more of the general public will want the comfort of a backup engine and/or do not desire to support a second ICE car. The car that can by itself meet all one's anticipated driving needs will have the advantage for some time.

 

[greenleaf]

I have both the Leaf and PiP. I alternate between the two cars with my spouse. The Leaf is definitely the more fun car to drive, but if I am making multiple trips, I would take the PiP because there's no range anxiety with the PiP.

I have an issue with the bluetooth system on Leaf. It will only connect automatically to the last connected phone, even though both my phone and my spouse's phone are already paired to it. There is no such issue with the bluetooth on the PiP.

 

[DANandNAN]

Yes, but you do need to remember, a BEV won't work for everyone, for example, my daily commute is only 30 miles, sounds like a no-brainer, the issue is, i'm single and don't want to own 2 cars (with 2 insurance payments and associated costs), I do have 100+ mile highway days multiple days per month.. So some of us have to compromise to only owning 1 vehicle, and right now the choices are PiP or Volt, soon Ford will have another choice as well, the Ford Energi Hybrid (and they are also comming out with a plug in hybrid as well)

Also, if your 1 way commute is short and has stop & go traffic, and you can plug in at work, you can actually get most of your commuting on EV, even with a PiP, i'm at %63 EV for the last 2 weeks, 450+ miles, estimated gas usage just 3 gallons.. Will have better details when filled up next Saturday.

Ford C-Max hybrid: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1076274_2013-ford-c-max-hybrid-available-to-order-now-from-25995" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ford C-Max Energi plug in hybrid minivan: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1071702_ford-c-max-energi-plug-in-hybrid-minivan-video" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm well aware of these plug-ins, but they're tokens too. Granted they have longer range than the 6-11 PiP, but not much longer. And, they aren't true EV if you push the peddle to much, or go to fast, just like the PiP.

GM set the bar, 40+ miles in pure EV then a range extending generator that's getting ~45MPG.
And, Nissan also set the bar, 70 or more miles EV

Toyota and Ford's entry's should have been better. Instead, they stuck their baby toe in the proverbial EV pool and said "see, we have one too!" even though they don't. Even Toyota's RAV4 is made using Tesla's hard work. I should note that Ford does have the FFE, but that's a been withheld for unknown reasons since rolling off the assembly line over a month ago and the rollout is extremely limited. These other vehicles shouldn't be in the same discussion IMHO, the only reason why they are is because they can be plugged in. But, they aren't ever EV. I do like hybrids, but I think they're overrated and the premium paid v buying a non-hybrid takes a long while to recover. It's better than nothing, but they still burn gasoline and really aren't the same. I want to be able to do my daily drives without using any gas, no matter how fast I drive or how hard I accelerate.

Also, I didn't say RLBEV or EREV would work for everyone or for every situation. I said most folks could make it through their day. Most folks could, the numbers back it up. And, when you need a longer range there's the Volt's on-board generator or a rental vehicle for the RLBEV so folks that think a RLBEV or EREV wouldn't work for them do have options.

 

[cwerdna]

GM set the bar, 40+ miles in pure EV then a range extending generator that's getting ~45MPG.

It seems that you're stretching the truth on the Volt's CS mileage. It was either you or someone else who did that before here on MNL. What speeds are you talking about?

Per http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=31618" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, EPA rating on the Volt in CS mode in 35 city/40 highway, 37 mpg combined.

In CR's testing (their highway almost always exceeds EPA highway #), they got 23 city/41 highway (see http://news.consumerreports.org/cars/2011/10/update-chevrolet-volt-sees-fuel-economy-increase.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false. From http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/chevrolet/volt/road-test.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (you'll need a subscription):

The 1.4-liter four-cylinder gas engine starts and stops smoothly but runs on premium fuel. With it running, the Volt returned a very good 32 mpg overall and 41 mpg on the highway...

 

[DANandNAN]

GM set the bar, 40+ miles in pure EV then a range extending generator that's getting ~45MPG.

It seems that you're stretching the truth on the Volt's CS mileage. It was either you or someone else who did that before here on MNL. What speeds are you talking about?

Per http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=31618" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, EPA rating on the Volt in CS mode in 35 city/40 highway, 37 mpg combined.

In CR's testing (their highway almost always exceeds EPA highway #), they got 23 city/41 highway (see http://news.consumerreports.org/cars/2011/10/update-chevrolet-volt-sees-fuel-economy-increase.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false. From http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/chevrolet/volt/road-test.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (you'll need a subscription):

The 1.4-liter four-cylinder gas engine starts and stops smoothly but runs on premium fuel. With it running, the Volt returned a very good 32 mpg overall and 41 mpg on the highway...

I'm not stretching anything. The government stats are very low and CR is generally wrong. We get 45MPG in CS mode. There was one time when we needed it for .2 miles and the generator reved up and created a charge that we never used before shutting off and recharging - that charge is lost and the MPG was really low, somewhere around 34MPG. But, on our longer trips (more than .2 miles ) we get 45MPG. City is a bit less, but yes, that's our average. And, we drive it like our ICE cars, using AC on ECO mode on almost every drive.

Come on, you know the government stats were crazy, look at the 100 mile range for the Leaf v. how many folks achieve it. I think the testers decided to err on the side of caution after the 100 mile range debacle.

 

[davewill]

... And, when you need a longer range there's the Volt's on-board generator or a rental vehicle for the RLBEV so folks that think a RLBEV or EREV wouldn't work for them do have options.

By the way, did you invent this "RL"BEV term just to annoy folks? It's a BEV, period.

 

[DANandNAN]

NOTE: Before today my last 1300 miles used 0.6 gal of gas.

My data from a trip I took today (Sat 6May2012).

2/3rds driving 65 MPH in cruise control mainly. 1/3rd driving 35-50 MPH. Temps in mid-60F.

68.4 TotMiles = 40.8 EV miles and 27.6 gas miles.

49.2 MPG gas = 27.6 gas miles using 0.56 gal of gas -- shows the Volt can get pretty GOOD gas engine/generator miles.
120 MPGused = 68.4 TotMiles using 0.56 gal of gas
73 MPGe** = 68.4 TotMiles using 0.56 gal of gas and 12.9 kWh electricity (10.4 kWh + charging overhead)

** MPGe calculated using spreadsheet via Progressive Automotive X PRIZE: Calculating MPGe

cwerdna,
Here's a photo from ScottF200's Volt and his post. He's doing better than us at 49MPG. And, again, he's not driving it like a Prius.

 

[TRONZ]

The most conventional car will always sell the most. In North America this means burning gas so you rank them by their potential to do this. PIP>Volt>LEAF.

We talk about "CARB Play" cars but it would seem Toyota has introduced an "HOV Play" car. It should be VERY popular here in SoCal.

 

[DANandNAN]

... And, when you need a longer range there's the Volt's on-board generator or a rental vehicle for the RLBEV so folks that think a RLBEV or EREV wouldn't work for them do have options.

By the way, did you invent this "RL"BEV term just to annoy folks? It's a BEV, period.

Sorry if you find the initials annoying. Try not to let that bother you. I know we're buying a RLBEV and I'm ok with it

 

[davewill]

By the way, did you invent this "RL"BEV term just to annoy folks? It's a BEV, period.

Sorry if you find the initials annoying. Try not to let that bother you. I know we're buying a RLBEV and I'm ok with it

Thank you, that answers the question. (Yes, you did)

P.S. I'm glad you like your PHEV.