TomT said:
I will also still be withholding anything but a limited lease recommendation on the car until we have a true track record for the lizard...
Look at three cases:
Cool, average and hot. 70% EOL, Wiki's estimates for battery life: http://electricvehiclewiki.com/Battery_Capacity_Loss#Battery_Aging_Model" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Cool is PNW, say Olympia WA, wiki estimate is 9 years and 112,500 miles, battery cost is $6000/100,000 or $0.06 per mile. Add $0.02 for electric power (@$0.11), and buying a Leaf looks like it pays off. Even a Prius will cost more per mile for just gasoline (about $0.08), and the Leaf is a nicer car. Net cost of own for 18 years is ($23,000 for car, after rebate, $6000 replacement battery) or $29,000/18 years or $134 a month. Can't lease for that. Even without a replacement battery, 9 years at $213 a month. Lease rate for the Leaf SV was $270/month with VPP. Buying in the PNW is cheaper than leasing, even before the replacement battery price.
Average is LA civic center or Knoxville, TN, wiki estimate is 6 years and 75k miles, battery cost per mile is $6000/75,000 or $0.08 per mile. Add something for electric power, and yes, a few pennies per mile more than the Prius, and again, the Leaf is a nicer car. Less than a 30 MPG Civic, at $0.13 per mile for gasoline. But is a lease really cheaper? Own the car for 18 years, two replacement batteries later, that is (23,000 for car) $35,000/18 years or $162 a month. I don't think you can lease a Leaf SV for that, even with VPP, great negotiation skills, etc. Even with a 12 year life, one replacement battery, $201 a month.
Hot is Phoenix, AZ. Wiki estimate is 2.5 years and 31,250 miles. Battery cost $6000/31,250 or $0.192 per mile (after the warranty, of course). Right up there with the SUVs, not cheap, yes a lease is probably a better deal, even if the battery is better. Own the car for 18 years, six replacement batteries later, one under warranty, $23,000 + 5 x $6000 = $53,000/18 years or $245 per month. Yes, still less than the VPP lease rate, but not by much.
I agree that the technology is changing, and you might get a cooler or cheaper car in a few years by leasing now. Bird in the hand...
I agree that the risk of leasing is lower. After all, there is a lot of new technology in a Leaf. We don't know exactly how long batteries, inverters, chargers and the rest of the electronics will last.
Not everyone can live in the limits of a 70% EOL battery's range. If you can't, will cost more. If you can live in less, will cost less. Assuming capacity loss stays slow, might be better to sell a used Leaf to someone that needs less range. Especially after the car gets older than the average age of a car in the US, 11 years.
Yea, I've ignored the time value of money, effects of taxes except for the Federal tax rebate (which helps leasing more than buying), inflation, pollution costs, overseas wars for oil, technology improvements and a whole bunch of other important things. Please feel free to update for any or all of these factors. Yes, I picked the 18 year, 12 year and 9 year lifetimes out to make the calculations easier. Yes, I've ignored any remaining value in the car.
It looks to me like a lease is almost but not quite cheaper for the hot places. Marginal for average places, and more expensive for the cool places.
Buying a Leaf looks a whole lot better than it did yesterday. Do the math.