Things to ponder

[Subsailortrainman]

Just running a few things through my head and I felt like sharing.

1/ With electric cars needing so little maintenance, will dealers start charging higher prices for the electric cars as they become more popular? Seeing as they make their money from service and not a great deal from sales.

2/ Will Leaf sales plummet when they hit the 200000 unit mark and the federal rebate goes poof?

3/ Since EV drivers pay no gas tax for road construction, will the owners be required to pay some sort of use fee in lieu of the gas tax?

4/ If popularity of EV's explodes will electric rates skyrocket since there is not enough generating capacity in this country to supply 100 million cars with electricity.


Just some questions I have been pondering.
Dave :twisted:

 

[MikeinDenver]

Just running a few things through my head and I felt like sharing.

1/ With electric cars needing so little maintenance, will dealers start charging higher prices for the electric cars as they become more popular? Seeing as they make their money from service and not a great deal from sales.

2/ Will Leaf sales plummet when they hit the 200000 unit mark and the federal rebate goes poof?

3/ Since EV drivers pay no gas tax for road construction, will the owners be required to pay some sort of use fee in lieu of the gas tax?

4/ If popularity of EV's explodes will electric rates skyrocket since there is not enough generating capacity in this country to supply 100 million cars with electricity.


Just some questions I have been pondering.
Dave :twisted:

2. My guess is Nissan will have to lower the price again or sales will slow.

3. There has already been a lot of talk about going to a miles driven tax instead of a fuel tax which would mean we would pay the same as other vehicles.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I doubt that any American car dealers think that EVs will supplant ICEs. Not one. The worries you mention are far in the future for them, if ever.

 

[Nubo]

Just running a few things through my head and I felt like sharing.

1/ With electric cars needing so little maintenance, will dealers start charging higher prices for the electric cars as they become more popular? Seeing as they make their money from service and not a great deal from sales.

2/ Will Leaf sales plummet when they hit the 200000 unit mark and the federal rebate goes poof?

3/ Since EV drivers pay no gas tax for road construction, will the owners be required to pay some sort of use fee in lieu of the gas tax?

4/ If popularity of EV's explodes will electric rates skyrocket since there is not enough generating capacity in this country to supply 100 million cars with electricity..

1 - Dealerships are living on borrowed time. Most consumers come to realize eventually that dealerships serve mainly a parasitic function. They continue to survive because of inertia on the one hand and active lobbying on the other (witness the various state attempts to criminalize Tesla direct-sales. The reduction in maintenance issues will serve to further cement the notion that dealerships primary function is wealth-extraction. Within a generation the direct-sale of cars will be ubiquitous.

2 - I don't think so. They already made a decent price adjustment already in 2013. Nissan seems to recognize the long-term play. Iirc, Ghosn himself has acknowledged the need to wean themselves from the sales advantages of the rebates. Before that happens, they will have a pretty good EV customer base. Also; chances are gasoline will continue to rise in price; adding to the EV benefit. And corporate average fuel efficiency requirements are going to be ratcheting up significantly. I get the feeling that Nissan, for all of its missteps, has actually been skating to where the puck is going to be with some measure of premeditation.

3 - It's only fair that EV drivers contribute. A mileage-based system seems equitable and fairer than what we have now, with poorer people actually paying higher taxes because they generally drive older, less-efficient vehicles.

4 - there's plenty of generating capacity that goes unused at night; it's mostly a matter of appropriate price incentives to encourage off-peak charging. That's not to say that the infrastructure won't need work. Local transformers and other pieces will eventually need attention when every other home has an EV charging at night. But it's not as if the national fleet is going to be converted to electric drive overnight! Consider the adoption of air conditioning, which represents a huge electrical load. As late as the mid 1950's it was very rare for a private residence to have air conditioning. 15 years later the adoption was nearly 50 percent. And AC has the added problem of being heavily used during times of day that already had high electrical demand. EV charging seems an easier problem in that respect.

 

[adric22]

I really have to question the whole "dealers make money from maintenance" thing. In my experience the "maintenance" part is actually done at or below cost for the dealer. For example, most dealers don't make any money on an oil change. Their goal is to use that as an excuse to get you into the dealer. Then once they get their hands on your car, they look for other problems they can "fix" for you. Some dishonest dealers will actually invent things that are broken and/or not even repair them if they think the customer won't notice. As such, I think with electric cars, they'll just need to find a new excuse to get you into the dealership instead of oil changes. After the car is out of warranty, I'm sure they'll be able to make money on repairs just like they always did.

 

[johnrhansen]

IN Washington, I have to pay 100 dollars a year extra for my car tabs, because I don't buy gas. It's still cheaper than the tax I'd have to pay if I did buy gas though.

 

[MikeinDenver]

2 - I don't think so. They already made a decent price adjustment already in 2013. Nissan seems to recognize the long-term play. Iirc, Ghosn himself has acknowledged the need to wean themselves from the sales advantages of the rebates. Before that happens, they will have a pretty good EV customer base. Also; chances are gasoline will continue to rise in price; adding to the EV benefit. And corporate average fuel efficiency requirements are going to be ratcheting up significantly. I get the feeling that Nissan, for all of its missteps, has actually been skating to where the puck is going to be with some measure of premeditation.

While I get their understanding of needing to move away from relying on the incentives I don't think that is going to be easy. In my case I received almost $10k in incentives effectively and without those as much as I wanted an electric vehicle I don't see it happening. I would have just kept my Mustang and continued driving that, or purchased a diesel. Looking at the math it just would not have made economic sense. Now that is just my specific case but I image there are more like me.

 

[Nubo]

2 - I don't think so. They already made a decent price adjustment already in 2013. Nissan seems to recognize the long-term play. Iirc, Ghosn himself has acknowledged the need to wean themselves from the sales advantages of the rebates. Before that happens, they will have a pretty good EV customer base. Also; chances are gasoline will continue to rise in price; adding to the EV benefit. And corporate average fuel efficiency requirements are going to be ratcheting up significantly. I get the feeling that Nissan, for all of its missteps, has actually been skating to where the puck is going to be with some measure of premeditation.

While I get their understanding of needing to move away from relying on the incentives I don't think that is going to be easy. In my case I received almost $10k in incentives effectively and without those as much as I wanted an electric vehicle I don't see it happening. I would have just kept my Mustang and continued driving that, or purchased a diesel. Looking at the math it just would not have made economic sense. Now that is just my specific case but I image there are more like me.

There are plenty like you. But the price structure of EVs will continue to decline and the cost of gasoline will continue to rise. There is an intersection point and we'll be nearer to it by the time the rebates are done.

 

[dgalvan]

1 - Dealerships are living on borrowed time. Most consumers come to realize eventually that dealerships serve mainly a parasitic function. They continue to survive because of inertia on the one hand and active lobbying on the other (witness the various state attempts to criminalize Tesla direct-sales. The reduction in maintenance issues will serve to further cement the notion that dealerships primary function is wealth-extraction. Within a generation the direct-sale of cars will be ubiquitous.

2 - I don't think so. They already made a decent price adjustment already in 2013. Nissan seems to recognize the long-term play. Iirc, Ghosn himself has acknowledged the need to wean themselves from the sales advantages of the rebates. Before that happens, they will have a pretty good EV customer base. Also; chances are gasoline will continue to rise in price; adding to the EV benefit. And corporate average fuel efficiency requirements are going to be ratcheting up significantly. I get the feeling that Nissan, for all of its missteps, has actually been skating to where the puck is going to be with some measure of premeditation.

3 - It's only fair that EV drivers contribute. A mileage-based system seems equitable and fairer than what we have now, with poorer people actually paying higher taxes because they generally drive older, less-efficient vehicles.

4 - there's plenty of generating capacity that goes unused at night; it's mostly a matter of appropriate price incentives to encourage off-peak charging. That's not to say that the infrastructure won't need work. Local transformers and other pieces will eventually need attention when every other home has an EV charging at night. But it's not as if the national fleet is going to be converted to electric drive overnight! Consider the adoption of air conditioning, which represents a huge electrical load. As late as the mid 1950's it was very rare for a private residence to have air conditioning. 15 years later the adoption was nearly 50 percent. And AC has the added problem of being heavily used during times of day that already had high electrical demand. EV charging seems an easier problem in that respect.

Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

Seriously, great points.

 

[DanCar]

1/ With electric cars needing so little maintenance, will dealers start charging higher prices for the electric cars as they become more popular? Seeing as they make their money from service and not a great deal from sales.

If you are in the Tesla fan club, then there won't be any dealers.

3/ Since EV drivers pay no gas tax for road construction, will the owners be required to pay some sort of use fee in lieu of the gas tax?

Since ICE cars pollute freely, shouldn't we increase the tax for the health issues and deaths they help incur? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exhaust_gas" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_pollution#Health_effects" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[dhanson865]

The cost shouldn't be per mile. It should be per ton per mile. As in take the weight in tons and multiply that by the miles traveled.

Trucks and other higher weight vehicles do more damage per mile traveled than cars do.

Small EVs like the iMeiv and the fitfor2EV and such should be basically free, and mid size EVs in the Leaf range should be darn cheap.

 

[DanCar]

The cost shouldn't be per mile. It should be per ton per mile. As in take the weight in tons and multiply that by the miles traveled.

Trucks and other higher weight vehicles do more damage per mile traveled than cars do.

Small EVs like the iMeiv and the fitfor2EV and such should be basically free, and mid size EVs in the Leaf range should be darn cheap.

+1

 

[Belvedere]

IN Washington, I have to pay 100 dollars a year extra for my car tabs, because I don't buy gas. It's still cheaper than the tax I'd have to pay if I did buy gas though.

We have a fee here in Missouri, too. I believe it was $70 a year which isn't bad, but do they forget we use our own electricity as well?

 

[johnrhansen]

how about a tax on tires? Bigger cars have bigger tires and wear the road out faster. You get a credit if you turn in one that isn't completely worn out.

 

[pkulak]

The cost shouldn't be per mile. It should be per ton per mile. As in take the weight in tons and multiply that by the miles traveled

This. I'm happy to pay tax on my Leaf (since I pay none at the pump), but idiot drivers yell at me quite often about not paying road taxes while I'm riding my bike. I'd also be more than happy to pay whatever that tax would be for my 0.015-ton bike.

 

[Nubo]

The cost shouldn't be per mile. It should be per ton per mile. As in take the weight in tons and multiply that by the miles traveled

This. I'm happy to pay tax on my Leaf (since I pay none at the pump), but idiot drivers yell at me quite often about not paying road taxes while I'm riding my bike. I'd also be more than happy to pay whatever that tax would be for my 0.015-ton bike.

Yeah I get that too. Truth be told there are plenty of taxes that go towards roads that *aren't* from gasoline tax. Now, these people have no idea of my income level. What if my overall tax contribution is far greater than theirs? Do I then get to "politely" ask *them* to refrain from using MY bicycle road? Damned moochers. :roll:

 

[Nubo]

Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

Ha ha! I guess I may have been sounding more authoritative than I have a right to be :lol:

Here' a site you might find interesting: http://www.evtv.me" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Now the "over-controlling micro-managing ***h*** in charge" of the operation may not be everyone's cup of tea. He can be abrasive and offensive and I certainly don't agree with everything he says and I get the feeling neither does he. But he's pretty bright; he's been around the block and he has a knack of seeing through the techno-hype and sorting through the chaff. If I would have listened to his advice about the incipient short-squeeze on TSLA stock last year, I probably wouldn't be driving a LEAF today :lol:

 

[redLEAF]

1/ With electric cars needing so little maintenance, will dealers start charging higher prices for the electric cars as they become more popular? Seeing as they make their money from service and not a great deal from sales.

Besides what has been already mentioned, a few mfg's actually offer 'free' maintenance but lately this has been getting cut and/or reduced, it hasn't seem to have affected Tesla much so probably not much of a factor

2/ Will Leaf sales plummet when they hit the 200000 unit mark and the federal rebate goes poof?

Someone has 'guessed' how long that might take but it's still a number of years away unless demand goes up dramatically, perhaps in about 8 to 10 years? too early to speculate much

3/ Since EV drivers pay no gas tax for road construction, will the owners be required to pay some sort of use fee in lieu of the gas tax?

EV's are less than 1% of all new cars (or something close to that), let's give them a chance to increase as they're not really a factor now --- hybrids which get 2 or 3X the gas mileage of 'non-hybrid' cars are paying significantly less already; would agree that we should see 'impact' studies before making any judgements yet

4/ If popularity of EV's explodes will electric rates skyrocket since there is not enough generating capacity in this country to supply 100 million cars with electricity.

and just when we ever get to a 100 million EV's ... 2050 possibly? would imagine (hopefully) that we do more with both the grid and alternative energy before this ever becomes a factor

 

[GRA]

2/ Will Leaf sales plummet when they hit the 200000 unit mark and the federal rebate goes poof?

Someone has 'guessed' how long that might take but it's still a number of years away unless demand goes up dramatically, perhaps in about 8 to 10 years? too early to speculate much

Unless they can get the price down to about what it is now with the incentive, absolutely. I've referenced a poll of California PEV drivers which shows that even in this well-heeled group, more than 70% cited the Federal and California incentives as very or extremely important under "Factors that made it possible to acquire an EV". Naturally, the % was lowest for Tesla owners. See http://energycenter.org/clean-vehicle-rebate-project/survey-dashboard" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

3/ Since EV drivers pay no gas tax for road construction, will the owners be required to pay some sort of use fee in lieu of the gas tax?

EV's are less than 1% of all new cars (or something close to that), let's give them a chance to increase as they're not really a factor now --- hybrids which get 2 or 3X the gas mileage of 'non-hybrid' cars are paying significantly less already; would agree that we should see 'impact' studies before making any judgements yet

Numerous states have already imposed license or other taxes on PEVs to replace gas taxes. A search on insideevs.com will turn up lots of articles announcing them.

4/ If popularity of EV's explodes will electric rates skyrocket since there is not enough generating capacity in this country to supply 100 million cars with electricity.

and just when we ever get to a 100 million EV's ... 2050 possibly? would imagine (hopefully) that we do more with both the grid and alternative energy before this ever becomes a factor

There've been several studies which have been cited at MNL that indicate the current generating capacity can easily handle tens of millions of PEVs charging off-peak, but as someone already mentioned, some upgrading of local transformers in areas with PEV clusters is likely to be necessary. Here's a couple of articles commenting on grid capacity:

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/518066/could-electric-cars-threaten-the-grid/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://cleantechnica.com/2014/02/03/grid-capacity-electric-vehicles-actually-problem-studies-find/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This just isn't a significant issue.

 

[Subsailortrainman]

Wow!
Lots of good answers and comments! My thought on the tax is I do not mind paying a use fee instead of a gas tax, and the cost should be spread out evenly among all drivers. Maybe based on miles driven per year. as far as wear goes, automobiles cause almost no damage to the roads. The heavy commercial trucks are responsible for that along with salt and other chemicals used for ice control. That being said, I don't mind paying for the upkeep of the public infrastructure. In general, we need to do some serious repairs to a lot of bridges in the US before we see lots of them drop out from underneath us. Also as far as the electric issue. I believe we do have the capacity available, or can have it available when needed. 100 million electric cars will not appear overnight, just as ice cars did not appear overnight. I do worry about the electric grid in general. There are only 3 grids in the US. The eastern grid, the western grid, and Texas. (go figure!)
All it takes to bring down the east and west grids is for one or two plants to drop offline during peak usage and the entire grid goes into a cascade failure. That's scary. (But off topic...Sorry!)
Hopefully the economics of scale will kick in around the time the federal rebates go away and the cost of electric cars will drop to a point as to be very competitive with ice vehicles. Battery costs should drop and improved battery design should boost the range, and even the staunch defenders of the ice cars will have to admit that electric vehicles are a good alternative.

I believe that dealers will be around as long as ice cars exist, but seeing a larger number of vehicles in the market that require so little maintenance has got to make them a little nervous.

Dave