Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[TomT]

Actually, the one shown last night IS pretty much the one I want... I have a November time-frame delivery date...

It is an easy decision for me: Model 3!

You just might want to hold off that decision until you can actually see the $35k model 3, as opposed to the over-$50k model 3s shown last night.

 

[edatoakrun]

Of all the model 3 details TSLA has concealed from its "customers", perhaps after tonight we will we'll get an answer to an important question that no one has mentioned, what will these things actually cost...

Musk Risks Missing the Mainstream If Model 3 Strays From $35,000

...“One question for Model 3 reservation holders is: How much are they really willing to pay?” said David Whiston, an auto analyst with Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. “Thirty-five grand is going to get you a very basic model. The average Model 3 is going to be more like $42,000, and a fully-loaded one will probably be in the $60s. It’s not a mass-market car.”...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-28/musk-risks-missing-the-mainstream-if-model-3-strays-from-35-000

In fact I think it's quite possible a fully-loaded 3 will eventually (once all the options are available) rise above $70k, list price...

After the reveal, the $70k fully-loaded model 3 looks like a nearly sure thing.

With the price of a loaded model 3 now known to be nearly $60k, and with many expensive likely options ( AWD, immolation mode ?) not yet offered, you should be able to pay over $70k for a model 3 by sometime next year...if you want to.

Actually, the one shown last night IS the one I want... I have a November time-frame delivery date...

So you are planning to order one fully-loaded (limited to presently available options) for $59,500?

 

[OrientExpress]

Wow, Scott can sure spin it.

Currently, in the US, there are 6118 Tesla supercharger plugs at 909 locations and 42,375 public L2 charge points and 3670 quick charge points. This number serves the 3% of EV type vehicles today in the US. Those public chargers will be hopelessly oversubscribed if the EV installed base only doubles in size. What will happen when EV penetration hits ten or twenty percent of the US fleet?

 

[edatoakrun]

If thirty cars actually were sold, as TSLA says, how has it managed to evade disclosure of the “conditional fuel economy label”?

(P 79)

Wonder if TSLA will reveal data from the “conditional fuel economy label” before or by tomorrow night?

And if so, will it be only for the optional-large-battery RWD versions it has said will be "delivered" tomorrow night, or show data for the entire model 3 range?

Tesla's Official Model 3 EPA Efficiency Data Will Be One Month Late

Tesla will launch its Model 3 on Friday, July 28th without official EPA energy efficiency data.

Like many aspects of Telsa's vehicle launches, the energy efficiency data is an afterthought to be handled when time permits, rather before the cars start to be sold to private owners.

No Official Window Sticker For Model 3

In the U.S., every car sold must have a Monroney sticker affixed to its side window by law. The is sticker has evolved over the years, but now contains primarily fuel economy information (in the largest font on the sticker), energy (or fuel) costs in the second largest font size, crash test data from NHTSA, manufacturing location and parts origin by percentage, and, of course, the individual vehicle's MSRP and standard and optional content in the smallest font. Tesla will be providing vehicles to consumers without official data...

We asked the folks at http://www.fueleconomy.gov if the information was available and discovered it was not. Our inquiry was timely. Just yesterday, July 26th, 2017, http://www.fueleconomy.gov received an e-mail from the EPA informing the group that the data would be a month late and that official sales of the Model 3 would start on July 28th (not what you may have otherwise heard reported). Instead of an official Monroney sticker, the EPA will allow Tesla to ship a limited number of vehicles (possibly less than 100 in total) with “conditional fuel economy label”. http://WWW.fueleconomy.gov explained to us that, "This provision in EPA regulations allows manufacturers to introduce a model based on manufacturer’s test data, while the test vehicle is being confirmatory tested at EPA." The group says that EPA won't be sending any information to http://www.fueleconomy.gov until the data is finalized, which is estimated to take another month...

https://www.torquenews.com/1083/teslas-official-model-3-epa-data-will-be-one-month-late

 

[scottf200]

Wow, Scott can sure spin it.

Currently, in the US, there are 6118 Tesla supercharger plugs at 909 locations and 42,375 public L2 charge points and 3670 quick charge points. This number serves the 3% of EV type vehicles today in the US. Those public chargers will be hopelessly oversubscribed if the EV installed base only doubles in size. What will happen when EV penetration hits ten or twenty percent of the US fleet?

A key difference is how many SC pedestals/plugs they are putting at these locations. The chademo and ccs have 1 or 2 often with 50 kW max for a short time. Mass production type buyers will quickly sour on this 1 or 2 plugs per site and waiting.

More and more charging pedestals/sites per location now. 10 is the new minimum. Tesla is running at a reasonable jog and the rest are using an elderly walker.

See 'construction' and 'permit' statuses. Via supercharger.info

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[edatoakrun]

Correction.

$60,700, before taxes and fees, of course.

Of all the model 3 details TSLA has concealed from its "customers", perhaps after tonight we will we'll get an answer to an important question that no one has mentioned, what will these things actually cost...

Actually, the one shown last night IS the one I want... I have a November time-frame delivery date...

So you are planning to order one fully-loaded (limited to presently available options) for $59,500?

CR has a Bolt/3 comparison chart.

Tale of the Tape: Tesla Model 3 vs. Chevrolet Bolt EV

Tesla released more details on the Model 3 Friday. Here's how the two most affordable all-electric cars stack up...

$36,200 ($35,000 MSRP + $1,200 destination and documentation fees for standard battery)...

https://www.consumerreports.org/tesla-model-3/tesla-model-3-vs-chevrolet-bolt-ev-tale-of-the-tape/

 

[redLEAF]

I was wondering about this ... what vehicles will be traded in for a Model 3 ??

Of course this is simply a survey as only 30 were JUST delivered (and all to Tesla or Space X employees) so wonder how much to real world this will be (3 BMW's on the list and the LEAF was 2nd; my VW e-Golf came in 8th out of the top ten); I'm sure a heavy concentration of those whose provided info is out on the west coast so that would skew this as well; funny that the Chevy Bolt is also on this list --- talk about depreciation hit; hasn't even been on the market all that long but perhaps those people are waiting for the later AWD Model 3 ...

http://insideevs.com/poll-results-bmw-3-series-top-trade-tesla-model-3/

 

[TomT]

No, I'm looking at about $49.5K for the one I want...

So you are planning to order one fully-loaded (limited to presently available options) for $59,500?

 

[lorenfb]

No, I'm looking at about $49.5K for what I want...

So you are planning to order one fully-loaded (limited to presently available options) for $59,500?

If I remember correctly, Tom had a reservation for a Model X that he canceled (wait too long).

 

[Zythryn]

I'm looking at between $37k-$45k with a delivery estimate of December-February(18).
Almost spot on with my earlier expectations.
The big decision for me is if I get the autopilot hardware or not.

 

[lpickup]

If thirty cars actually were sold, as TSLA says, how has it managed to evade disclosure of the “conditional fuel economy label”?

Are you saying that you have first-hand knowledge that Tesla did not provide a conditional Monroney sticker to the 30 initial buyers? Because those are the only people they are obligated to provide this information to.

 

[edatoakrun]

If thirty cars actually were sold, as TSLA says, how has it managed to evade disclosure of the “conditional fuel economy label”?

Are you saying that you have first-hand knowledge that Tesla did not provide a conditional Monroney sticker to the 30 initial buyers? Because those are the only people they are obligated to provide this information to.

No, I asked exactly what I intended to in the question you copied above, which I suggest you read again.

Are you saying that you believe each of the "30 initial buyers", independently and without any direction from TSLA, removed stickers from their cars before the delivery ceremony, and decided to keep the test results required by law to be shown on the stickers secret?

That's a bizarre scenario, IMO.

But maybe no more bizarre than TSLA's refusal to just announce their test results.

 

[SageBrush]

The question that many will have to ponder is: "do I get a barebones Tesla for $35K or a fully equipped LEAF for the same price?"

If it is for Local Driving only, then get the Leaf.

I did -- the 24 kWh LEAF
The upcoming LEAF is going to be like the Bolt: minimal additional utility over the 24 kWh car without a SC level network. And apparently the same battery cooling architecture *cough* current Nissan customers get to enjoy.

I'm very much looking forward to a Model 3, although I am undecided whether to buy options. I'll probably buy the AP for the dynamic cruise control and lane keep assist since I consider those items safety features for longer drives. Next up will be a decision on the Premium package. The cold weather package is a nice addition in my wintery Colorado, and I love the all glass roof.

 

[TomT]

Perhaps a different Tom... I never ordered a X (or S)...

If I remember correctly, Tom had a reservation for a Model X that he canceled (wait too long).

 

[lpickup]

The question that many will have to ponder is: "do I get a barebones Tesla for $35K or a fully equipped LEAF for the same price?"

If it is for Local Driving only, then get the Leaf. If you wish to use it for long cross-country vacation driving then get the Tesla. Even the 200+ mile Leaf can not be practical for trips greater than 300 miles. jmho

Just curious. Why wouldn't a 200 mile leaf be practical for trips of 300 or greater miles?

IMO, 250 is the minimum number of miles for long distance travel. 280 is a good realistic number. And unless Nissan does something about providing more cooling, based on my experience fast charging my 30kWh LEAF just twice in a row at 40kW charging (battery temp related), I'm not even sure about those numbers when it comes to the LEAF.

Here is my reasoning: First I will define "long distance". I'll define local travel as 120 miles or less (that may sound like a lot, but 60 miles each way, or a 40 mile triangle is kind of what I'm thinking). Regional travel is up to about 350 miles (away from home). This is actually a pretty good distance. From my home in Raleigh, this gets my to Baltimore to the north, Savannah, GA to the south, and Knoxville, TN to the west. This kind of travel might even meet most people's travel needs considering they might fly for distances longer than this. But with the cost, delays, and hassles of air travel, my personal threshold for flying vs driving is 8 hours of driving (480 miles) when it's a direct flight (pretty rare) and 16 hours (960 miles) otherwise. Particularly when traveling with more than 2 people. In particular, we have a particular trip to take once a year that is about 800 miles each way.

So I originally went through a long derivation of how much charging "overhead" (in time) you would experience assuming various charging rates. I'll spare you the details (although let me know if you want them), but it basically works out to about 30% overhead if you assume 50kW charging. And before you come back and say that there are 150kW standards being proposed, let me respond by saying that the 50kW network (at least where I am) barely exists (and in some directions doesn't), much less some hypothetical 100-150kW network which will do me no good if I need to take a trip next year. But for the sake of argument, even assuming 100kW charging, you can cut down the overhead to 18%.

Now the benchmark I am trying to hit is the overhead we currently have while taking our annual long trip in a gas vehicle. We currently do this with between 15-17% overhead. So okay, the 100kW charging at least gets close. So assumption #1 (for me anyway) is that a long distance EV will have to support at least 100kW charging to be competitive.

But will a 200 mile EV do the trick, or do you need more?

Well let me first say that I don't necessarily envision driving your EV until it reaches 2% SOC and then sitting at the charging station until it hits exactly 80% and then going. Rather I see stops timed more or less with potty and meal stops. And since my bladder range might not even be quite up to the range of the higher capacity packs, this probably means I won't have to fill all the way up to 80% to make it to the next stop. This is good because it minimizes the effect that tapering off will have, and means I don't have to sit for as long twiddling my thumbs waiting to hit that 80% (in the case of a high range car needing a full 80% at a lower speed charger, you might be at the stop for almost an hour 20 minutes, which is even long for a meal).

Now here's the problem with the 200 mile range car. Whether your bladder needs to or not, you will need to stop AT LEAST every two hours and charge for 30 minutes. AND, you better hope the charging stations are spaced at these perfect intervals. Otherwise you're may have to stop at even shorter intervals to make sure. And as I said, the CHAdeMO/CCS "networks" barely exist as it is. With 250-280 (or more) range vehicles, your window expands to something a bit more comfortable. If you have to stop in 2 hours, fine...but then you don't have to fill all the way up. If you can make it 3 hours, but you know you will be stopping for lunch in another 2, then go ahead and cut the charge short.

Now here's where we get back on topic to Tesla. So Tesla has chargers that do support 100kW+ charging today. There is an actual network of them. They are spaced out at intentionally even intervals. They are sited near amenities. Even then, from my area, going in the direction I take annually, it is 278 miles to the first Supercharger (the road I take, US-29 through VA, is not an interstate (although portions are limited access with speed limits of 65-70) so likely not a target for future SCs). There is one planned for Charlottesville, VA at 200 miles away, but this takes me over 20 minutes out of my way. The closest CHAdeMO charger on this route is 230 miles away, and it is a SINGLE charger. So the going in that direction is tight, for sure, for either car. But the long range Model 3 could, in theory, make it. The hypothetical 200 mile LEAF could not. Taking an alternate route north towards I-95 (which I like to avoid), the first Supercharger is only 80 miles away and this gets me to interstates which will serve well. The closest CHAdeMO in that direction, however, is again a SINGLE charger at a hotel 135 miles away. Okay, at least doable. Heading south to Savannah, Supercharger is 108 miles away. For CHAdeMO I would have to go out of my way to get to a Nissan dealer in Fayetteville (about 90 miles), but then where? There is not a single other fast charger until Savannah (261 miles). So SOL taking a 200 mile LEAF in that direction. Going west there are actually several options, but the pinch point is probably a single charger at a Nissan dealer about 160 miles away. You would have to stop there to get a charge to make it the next leg. But to make it there comfortably you would probably also have to stop at another Nissan dealer as well. Again with Tesla, this is all well spaced-out. You could actually make it to the Asheville Supercharger (242 miles), but there will be 2 other opportunities before that as well.

 

[lpickup]

If thirty cars actually were sold, as TSLA says, how has it managed to evade disclosure of the “conditional fuel economy label”?

Are you saying that you have first-hand knowledge that Tesla did not provide a conditional Monroney sticker to the 30 initial buyers? Because those are the only people they are obligated to provide this information to.

No, I asked exactly what I intended to in the question you copied above, which I suggest you read again.

Are you saying that you believe each of the "30 initial buyers", independently and without any direction from TSLA, removed stickers from their cars before the delivery ceremony, and decided to keep the test results required by law to be shown on the stickers secret?

That's a bizarre scenario, IMO.

But maybe no more bizarre than TSLA's refusal to just announce their test results.

No, what I am saying is that it's very likely that Tesla compiled with the law and provided the new owners with their legally required paperwork either prior to or just after the event. To have a bunch of window stickers on the cars at this handover even would have simply looked silly and I see nothing bizarre about not having them physically in the windows during this ceremony. In fact, I suspect that several of the owners probably took delivery of the vehicles shortly after they rolled off the line and brought them back to the factory for the official ceremony. Certainly this is the case with Franz's personal Model 3 which he drove all the way to SoCal for the Motor Trend first drive.

To get back to your question, here is the part I think you are talking about:

how has it managed to evade disclosure of the “conditional fuel economy label”?

It seems like you are under the impression that they must disclose the "conditional fuel economy label" to EVERYBODY. While true that the sticker must be affixed to the window of a car on sale sitting on a dealer's lot or a showroom (or gallery/store in the case of Tesla), and it's probably the case that the paperwork must be provided to the purchaser, I don't believe there is any requirement that the sticker be affixed to the window when the keys (or card I guess in the case of the Model 3) is handed over. In fact, whenever I've bought a car, when we actually get to the point that the dealer has officially handed over the keys to me, the car has been properly detailed and all stickers and what-not (including the Monroney sticker) have been removed the vehicle and any paperwork (including the sticker) is handed to me in a folder. And that's not even a ceremony, which is a STAGED EVENT.

 

[lpickup]

Are you saying that you believe each of the "30 initial buyers", independently and without any direction from TSLA, removed stickers from their cars before the delivery ceremony, and decided to keep the test results required by law to be shown on the stickers secret?

Oh, I guess I didn't answer this particular query directly (although I did indirectly). Yes, I absolutely believe the stickers were removed from their cars prior to the event. And probably not by the owners, but by Tesla themselves. And I don't find this bizarre at all. Like I said, even if they literally just received their "keys" that night, this is no different than any time I've bought a car and the dealer removes the sticker for me and hands it to me in a folder with all my other paperwork. And besides, I do think that in a lot of those cases, the new owners actually took ownership prior to the ceremony and have been driving around in them. It would be even more bizarre if they kept the stickers in the window so that they were visible, for some bizarre reason, during the ceremony.

But maybe no more bizarre than TSLA's refusal to just announce their test results.

What do you think is still missing? An official MPGe rating? City/highway breakdown? Annual fuel costs? Pretty much everything else is known now anyway. And I don't find it at all bizarre for Tesla to wait until the results are confirmed before bothering to release the stats in a nice "sticker" packaging. There is no reason that they have to: they have given everyone (except maybe you) all the information they really care about, and are not required to do so by law for another month (or once they exceed the 100 or so cars that they have approval to ship with temporary stickers).

 

[Graffi]

Elon did say that the number of Superchargers will triple by the end of 2018 when so many of the Model 3's will just begin their life. So the distance between Superchargers should be shorter by then.

A lot of that growth is addition chargers at existing stations so distance won't change in those cases.

True, so very true. However, that still leaves another "lot" of them will be in new locations which will shorten the distances for those legs.

As a side note: I do not believe that the vast majority of the Model 3 owners will be using Superchargers, only those using their cars for extended distances. For daily use it is so much more practical (and cheaper) to charge at home. There is the exception of those who rent and have no access to a 120v, or 240v, outlet. But for anyone in my situation, home owner with a 240v service in their garage (I also have a 30a EVSE from 4 years ago that was used for the LEAF) even with "FREE" Supercharging, it is not worth fighting traffic and the time to drive to the Supercharger, then wait for the charge. I did it once just to find out where it was and to be able to count it on the list of Superchargers visited, but never again. My time is more valuable than the cost of electricity at home. jmho

 

[scottf200]

Yes, I absolutely believe the stickers were removed from their cars prior to the event. And probably not by the owners, but by Tesla themselves. And I don't find this bizarre at all.

None of our last several news cars were picked up with the window sticker STILL on the car either. It is in the paper work and the car was cleaned and ready to be driven (i.e. no blocked window views). What a silly and basic topic to have to explain to someone (not you but him).

 

[Graffi]

The question that many will have to ponder is: "do I get a barebones Tesla for $35K or a fully equipped LEAF for the same price?"

If it is for Local Driving only, then get the Leaf. If you wish to use it for long cross-country vacation driving then get the Tesla. Even the 200+ mile Leaf can not be practical for trips greater than 300 miles. jmho

Just curious. Why wouldn't a 200 mile leaf be practical for trips of 300 or greater miles?

It is not the miles of range that make an EV practical for long distance trips, it is the ability to quickly "refuel", or in our case, recharge. Only Tesla is building a network of Superchargers to allow us to do that.

On our trips we drove for 1 to 1.5 hours, then stop at a supercharger to plug in, find a restroom, walk around a few minutes to get blood flowing to legs and feet, then unplug and be on our way in 10 to 20 minutes. If we do something else at the stop then we got more electricity. Some may ask, why drive an hour and wait 10 minutes? Well, when we drove ICE on our trips we did the same, drive then rest. Using our Tesla does not add more time to our total driving time, it us just more comfortable.

No other EV manufacturing company is doing anything about being able to recharge quickly. NO ONE. If you, or anyone, were to get anything other than a TESLA you could use it for longer drives, but if you have to recharge, then you find an L-2 EVSE that will recharge at a speed of about 16 to 20 miles each hour. This means that you drive for 3 hours, then recharge for 9 hours, drive for 3 hours, then recharge for 9 hours, rinse and repeat, etc. etc. etc. If you were lucky enough to find a DCFC and have that ability on your EV then you can drive for 3 hours, recharge for 1.5 hours, rinse and repeat, etc. etc. etc.

And do not get me started on paying for that electricity. All of the public charging stations available (except for the free ones that are becoming more and more rare) sell you the electricity, plus costs, plus profit. The cheaper one will charge you 2 or 3 times the cost of charging at home, most of the DCFC are even more. I believe you will find that the cost per mile for public DCFC electricity will be greater than gas in and ICE. With the TESLA superchargers it could be free, or if you have to pay, I read somewhere that Elon stated it would be equivalent to the cost of electricity at home (or much cheaper than driving on GAS). Even then, the cost of your time is much more expensive at the slower recharging stations.

No one has the network to allow you to drive for an hour, then charge for 10 minutes, except TESLA. This is the one thing that sets them apart from the field.