Nissan to double US sales of electric Leaf: Ghosn

[cwerdna]

I'm on zone X of PG&E and drive about 900 miles/month on the LEAF and recharge at home on E9A. My electric bill for December is $103 for 736KWHr or about 14 cents/KWHr. The winter E9 rates are lower than the summer E9 rates where my summer average cost is 16 to 18 cents/KWHr. Of course this is subject to change as PG&E wants to dramatically increase the E9 rates soon. Just for comparison, I put in 736KWHr and see $146 for E1 charges so E9 does better than E1 for my 1AM charging until it's changed.

I'm also apparently in zone X per http://www.pge.com/myhome/customerservice/financialassistance/medicalbaseline/understand/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and my bill. The electric portion of my last bill on E1 was $51.69 including taxes and fees for 393 kwh. 53.7 kwh was over the 339.3 kwh baseline and thus at a slightly higher rate.

 

[Luft]

The EV will succeed or fail on its own merits. But the talk of "forcing people" to choose a certain car and think the way you do is quite scary.

Ummm... Train.... maybe you can point me to where anyone here is talking about "forcing" anyone to do or think anything? :roll:

 

[planet4ever]

I'm also apparently in zone X per http://www.pge.com/myhome/customerservice/financialassistance/medicalbaseline/understand/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and my bill. The electric portion of my last bill on E1 was $51.69 including taxes and fees for 393 kwh. 53.7 kwh was over the 339.3 kwh baseline and thus at a slightly higher rate.

As long as you can stay under 130% of baseline the E1 rate is is not too bad -- 13¢ to 14¢ per kWh is not great, but it is tolerable. But if you had used another 50 kWh (due, say, to driving an extra 5 miles per day) your marginal rate would have doubled and you would have started paying 29.5¢/kWh for part of your LEAF charging.

Ray

 

[cwerdna]

And, as a reminder for those who aren't blessed by the cheap electricity in Seattle, the below will make Californians and others in high priced states jealous.

To quote from http://www.seattle.gov/light/accounts/rates/docs/2011/Jan/2011Jan_rsc.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (from http://www.seattle.gov/light/accounts/rates/ac5_erps22.htm#rsc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Summer Billing Cycles
(April - September)
ENERGY CHARGES:
First 10 kWh per day at 4.61¢ per kWh
All additional kWh per day at 9.56¢ per kWh

Winter Billing Cycles
(October - March)
First 16 kWh per day at 4.61¢ per kWh
All additional kWh per day at 9.56¢ per kWh

Base Service Charge: 11.55¢ per meter per day

In area X of PG&E, my baseline per day is 11.0 kwh in summer and 11.7 in winter. The price per kwh for that baseline is already higher than Seattle's per additional kwh per day...

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

we have Puget Sound Energy which is *much* higher. they bill a monthly rate (so even if you use power a single day, its still the same connect charge) and the first 600 Kwh is 8 something, then its 10 something after that. there is 2 other tiers but have no clue as to what they are since i have never hit them. the 3ed tier is higher but pretty sure the 4th tier drops back down to something below the 1st tier...

 

[Sasparilla]

Back on the topic here. Ghosn's talk of 20k sales expectations in the US doesn't square very well with Feb's sales numbers (~500), which is very disappointing. Hopefully numbers will pop back up in March - the tough nut in this is that there are now two other HOV vehicles being delivered Plug-in Prius HOV and the Volt HOV for the CA market.

I was just expecting that as the country opens up, sales would continue to take off - but I'm guessing that CA (west coast in general) actually represents a bit of anomaly with regards to plug-in sales and that much of the rest of the country isn't buying them much (some but not nearly what we've seen in CA in particular). I'm surmising that from the standpoint of Leaf sales numbers even though far more states can get them now and Volt sales as well (its nationwide and GM is having to shutdown production for more than a month - not good news for EV's or plug-ins).

From a historical perspective, Prius sales (which represented the majority of the hybrid market) were 5.5k the 1st year then 15.6k the 2nd year, 20k the 3rd year and 24k the 4th year. That was for a vehicle that retailed in the mid $20k's at the time if memory serves.

Perhaps our sales expectations haven't been realistic (for the Leaf and Volt). If the tax credit was an immediate tax rebate it would definitely juice sales numbers appreciably (but the chances of that with the GOP controlled house is somewhere between zero and nothing - they want to kill the existing temporary credit). But the tax credit is what we have (assuming the GOP doesn't sweep in November).

Frankly its a little scary looking at these numbers (and knowing GM is idling the Volt plant) and knowing Nissan has a new factory for Leaf's coming online at the end of the year.

I'd also feel better if Ford wasn't bringing its new plug-in vehicles in real numbers in 2013 (2012 will be small numbers) adding the Focus Electric EV and C-Max / Fusion Energi plug-ins to the market. Frankly the Leaf and Volt are about all the US market can weakly support at this point, IMHO.

Getting to the point where a EV / plug-in purchase is no brainer will have to wait till the battery tech gets there for us - which it is rapidly doing, but I still thank that won't happen (with no federal incentives which expire) till generation 3 around 2020.

In the mean time I sure hope Leaf sales gets back significantly above 1000 - March sales are really going to tell us the story when considering Mr. Ghosn's remark about US sales expectations.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

I believe that the slow roll out of fast charging stations is responsible for slow sales. The single most amazing thing about the Leaf is it's ability to take a charge in 30 minutes, making a larger battery a bit of a moot point. I wonder if the officials responsible for the delays understand just how much of a chicken and egg situation this is and that the delays in fast charging infrastructure are effecting consumer confidence and holding back the adoption of electric vehicles.

I think that if people could see an example of a functional fast charging network, even in another state, they'd be more inclined to take the plunge.

 

[Ingineer]

Maybe I'm being optimistic here, but I believe we have to factor in word of mouth and "monkey see, monkey do". I know that several of my friends now have Leafs of their own now because they saw/drove mine. They then told 2, and so on, etc...

That will cause a pretty fast ramp up even if each Leaf owner now only "sells" 2 cars in the next year, that means sales double!

-Phil

 

[Ingineer]

Oh, and it"s still not as easy to buy a Leaf as any other car. Unless you get lucky with an orphan, the waiting list puts off a lot of people. Once they have a few sitting at every dealer lot in the country, I expect huge gains. Ghosn probably has a lot of sekrit market intel available to him, so I'd be surprised if he ends up too far off his mark!

-Phil

 

[evnow]

Oh, and it"s still not as easy to buy a Leaf as any other car. Unless you get lucky with an orphan, the waiting list puts off a lot of people.

Right - when we get multiple choices in each dealer that anyone can walkin and buy, we will know the true "demand". We have to see whether Nissan abandons the current special order procedure before Smyrna comes on board or later.

I doubt Nissan can sell 20k cars this year if it remains a special order. My guess is sometime in the middle of this year, Nissan allows dealers to start ordering Leaf. Ultimately those 20k per year need to translate to about 1,650 a month. Now that we are 2 months over, it is now almost 1,900 a month. The more months they miss this monthly target, the more they have to sell later.

BTW, I wonder when we will reach the tipping point in terms of oil price.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I know that several of my friends now have Leafs of their own now because they saw/drove mine.

Clearly I am not cool enough because in spite of all the friends that have seen, ridden in, or driven my Leaf (27 now) nobody has seen fit to imitate me.

BTW, I wonder when we will reach the tipping point in terms of oil price.

Nobody knows of course but I'm guessing oil/gas prices have topped out for a while now. You start to see some economic slowdown that softens demand, not sure if we have hit peak oil but we sure have hit peak whining. Also, everyone thinks some major calamity in the middle east will make for $15 gas, but I'll suggest the opposite... huge hit to economic activity and we're looking at $1.75 gas again. Submitted for your consideration.

 

[TRONZ]

I had a stranger (car guy) ask me about our LEAF last week. He did not seem to know much about EV's but then surprised me by saying he was waiting for "that next car Nissan is making... Ya know the one in the commercials!?!". Very confused I said... "the sports car???". "YA!" he snapped, "I'd roll in that!".

Feeling a tiny bit defensive and crystal ball Nissan predictions aside, it did get me to thinking that some people are already waiting for "the next thing". Or waiting for something that is more exciting than a very useful and practical hatchback. I have had a handful of "whats next" conversations this year already. IMHO a refreshed 2013 LEAF will be great but I am not sure it will generate conquest sales in a general market that seems open to paying for something more sexy. It's probably a South O.C. prestige thing.

 

[evnow]

IMHO a refreshed 2013 LEAF will be great but I am not sure it will generate conquest sales in a general market that seems open to paying for something more sexy. It's probably a South O.C. prestige thing.

Well - people looking for prestige should caugh up the money for a Model S or i3. May be the Infiniti EV will get some of that. Leaf would be for the people graduating from hybrids.

 

[Sasparilla]

Oh, and it"s still not as easy to buy a Leaf as any other car. Unless you get lucky with an orphan, the waiting list puts off a lot of people.

Right - when we get multiple choices in each dealer that anyone can walkin and buy, we will know the true "demand". We have to see whether Nissan abandons the current special order procedure before Smyrna comes on board or later.

I doubt Nissan can sell 20k cars this year if it remains a special order. My guess is sometime in the middle of this year, Nissan allows dealers to start ordering Leaf. Ultimately those 20k per year need to translate to about 1,650 a month. Now that we are 2 months over, it is now almost 1,900 a month. The more months they miss this monthly target, the more they have to sell later.

BTW, I wonder when we will reach the tipping point in terms of oil price.

Good points Ingineer and evnow that the current ordering process is holding back some sales. That said, 20k for the year is going to be an extremely tough goal - at this point I just want to see the Leaf get back above 1000 sales a month (much less 2000 a month). Now, January was bound to be a low month due to the nature of the tax credit, hopefully Feb. was just an anomaly.

The oil price question is a good one. I definitely don't get the feeling of folks not being able to handle $4 gallon gasoline like it was in 2008 (truck and SUV sales are still large) - people seem to have gotten used to the higher prices. When will people start freaking out a little & buying out Prius stocks like they did in 2008 (and significantly more Leaf's and Volt's)? If the US average were to break $5 I think we'd get to that point. Although short of Israel bombing Iran (after they've verbally told the world / Iran ahead of time, not very Israel like) I can't see how the US average gets to $5 a gallon this year.

 

[Nubo]

For tens of millions of people, it would be their only car. They have to have a car that can go short distances and long distances. Why is this so hard to understand?

It's not hard to understand. I believe Nissan and most everyone here freely admit that this car is not being made for those people. That leaves many millions more people for whom it would work. Yes there's a price premium over the cheapest ICE vehicles. Still something that can succeed in the market, I believe. There doesn't have to be a LEAF in every garage in the country for it to be a success. Too many anti-EV arguments begin with "not everybody can...", or conversely, "what it EVERYBODY...". By those constraints, every car ever manufactured has failed.

 

[Roadburner440]

I will have to agree with Phil that this is going to be a "monkey see, monkey do" type of deal. A lot of people like arguing with me about how stupid I am for buying a Volt, and listing all the "facts" that they know about a car they have never even driven to me (and obviously I drive mine everyday). What is good with the Volt is the OnStar app shows you on your phone your lifetime MPG, lifetime EV miles, and lifetime mileage. It also shows you the same information for your current charge. Showing said offenders this app usually leaves them speechless. Especially since my lifetime MPG on the app is now showing "250+MPG."

I know people seeing my car out there everyday has had quite an impact, and as gas prices continue their upward trend I get more real questions than biased opinion. Unfortunately I personally have not "sold" any cars. I try everyday, but that is a tough hill to climb. The people that I have shown that would immediately go out and buy the car cannot afford to as they are to upside down in their SUV's/muscle cars to swing buying a Volt. I have had the fact that I have a gas engine thrown in my face as me "not believing in the tech enough" to cut my tie to the pump. At least that will change once my Leaf gets here. Hopefully it will be a case of leading by example. That is all any of us can do at this point.

Even I will admit these cars aren't for everyone. If anything the Volt would be the perfect solution for everyone. The Leaf until it gets more range is sort of a niche car regardless of whether it could do everyones drive or not. I think EREV's will be the immediate future until battery density improves substantially enough for EV's to take over. EREV's are better than nothing at all for reducing oil dependance at least.

I will say to that you can classify me as a climate change denier, at least in the sense you guys are referring to it. The Earth has gone through heating/cooling cycles. Obviously the carbon goes from the ground, in to the air, and back in to the ground over and over again. To be honest I think it would be impossible for us to destroy the Earth. We are giving ourselves far to much credit in that department. If nothing else we will destroy ourselves, but the Earth and ecosystem would adapt & live on. Now I am not saying we are not leaving our mark, but I think we do not influence things in the way we think. Now nuclear pollution, and obviously other forms of environmental damage we are most certaintly responsible for, and all of their associated side effects. Global warming/cooling/climate change or whatever it is called this week is another story though. Do we have some effect? Sure, but it is miniscule at best.

I personally am not sold either on the environmental benefits of these cars. The "Zero Emission" badge is something that really annoys me, and will be the first thing to come off of my Leaf. Energy is created somewhere. Even the 38% nuke energy in my area creates some kind of waste. I do intend on getting solar at some point, but selling these cars on the market as zero emission is questionable at best. The average person will not have a PV system, and will be charging from the grid. People will think they are doing great for the environment when really depending on their area it could be worse if they are in a mostly coal area. So we really need to be careful how we proceed in this area. When I talk with people I try to educate them about our area's power mix, and to give them the best information possible. Hopefully as EV's come in to the mix more we will have more renewable power available on the grid. With all the older coal fired plants being retired it should get better.

 

[davewill]

... To be honest I think it would be impossible for us to destroy the Earth. We are giving ourselves far to much credit in that department. If nothing else we will destroy ourselves, but the Earth and ecosystem would adapt & live on. ...

That's the basic thesis. Of course, I think causing mass extinctions (especially of ourselves) is quite bad enough.

 

[Nubo]

Oh, and it"s still not as easy to buy a Leaf as any other car. Unless you get lucky with an orphan, the waiting list puts off a lot of people. Once they have a few sitting at every dealer lot in the country, I expect huge gains. Ghosn probably has a lot of sekrit market intel available to him, so I'd be surprised if he ends up too far off his mark!

-Phil

Exactly. The man has a calculated plan, not some vague pipedream. This is not a Tucker, or even Tesla. This is a full-bore major auto manufacturer putting the full weight of its R&D and industrial production into play.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

...The "Zero Emission" badge is something that really annoys me, and will be the first thing to come off of my Leaf. Energy is created somewhere. Even the 38% nuke energy in my area creates some kind of waste...

Zero emission refers to tail pipe emission so it's accurate to call the Leaf zero emission. Also, dont forget that there are over 800 utilities nationwide that offer renewable offset. A 100% electric car like the Leaf has the potential of being truly zero emission. Nothing is zero impact, so in that respect you are correct.

I so wish you were correct on our impact being miniscule! I've visited coral reefs all over the world and seen first hand the devastating impact of warming and acidification. There is zero doubt that we are profoundly altering life on the plant and it does have its limits. Life persists on remarkably narrow margines here.

 

[Nubo]

I had a stranger (car guy) ask me about our LEAF last week. He did not seem to know much about EV's but then surprised me by saying he was waiting for "that next car Nissan is making... Ya know the one in the commercials!?!". Very confused I said... "the sports car???". "YA!" he snapped, "I'd roll in that!".

Feeling a tiny bit defensive and crystal ball Nissan predictions aside, it did get me to thinking that some people are already waiting for "the next thing". Or waiting for something that is more exciting than a very useful and practical hatchback. I have had a handful of "whats next" conversations this year already. ...

That's a great thing as far as I'm concerned. Desire for the "next thing" is fueled by the fact that the current thing works! Instead of some vague distant future, they're just biding their time for version2.