Nissan to double US sales of electric Leaf: Ghosn

[evnow]

Nissan expects to sell 20,000 Leafs in 2012.

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Nissan expects to double the number of electric-powered Leafs that it sells in the United States this year, Renault-Nissan chief executive officer Carlos Ghosn said Monday.
...
Nissan sold 9,700 electric Leafs in the United States in 2011 and would have sold more if the Japanese automaker had been able to secure more batteries, he said.

Its sales were also constricted by a slow introduction that limited sales to just seven states in order to better phase-in the necessary plug-in electric infrastructure.

It will be available in all 50 states before the end of 2012, Ghosn said.

 

[mdvb747]

I could see this happening with some quick chargers popping up, otherwise I could imagine quite a few of the LEAF sales becoming Focus EV sales as it can charge at twice the speed.

 

[GeekEV]

... would have sold more if the Japanese automaker had been able to secure more batteries, he said.

That's interesting and the first I've heard of that. So they must be really motivated to open that dedicated plant in TN then!

 

[evnow]

In a recent interview about the tsunami - Ghosn said that Nissan was as affected by it as Honda & Toyota - but worked harder to get things back in order quickly.

We don't know how many suppliers for the battery plant got suffered major damages because of the tsunami/earthquake.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

was expecting more along the lines of 30-35,000 this year. looks like it is still a supply problem. i am thinking the TN plant schedule should have been moved up

 

[Train]

I think they'll sell about 10,000 in 2012 in the U.S.

 

[Stanton]

was expecting more along the lines of 30-35,000 this year. looks like it is still a supply problem. i am thinking the TN plant schedule should have been moved up

I am thinking they would have if the could have. The devastation from the Tsunami/flooding not only affected production numbers in Japan, but delayed technology transfer to the US. In fact, I suspect some of the same component shortages affecting Japan would similarly affect the US (even if they were ready to build cars here).
I think we're definitely looking at 2013 for Leafs built in the US, which will continue to make it a rare car for the balance of this year.

 

[evnow]

I think they'll sell about 10,000 in 2012 in the U.S.

That was my expectation too - but they will be able to increase sales by advertising more, have Leafs on the lot instead of having to special order etc.

 

[TLeaf]

Improved infrastructure will certainly help 2012 LEAF sales, but I'd think that even the Focus EV will give the LEAF a boost as it: a) helps legitimize EV technology amongst foreigner-fearing Americans (unless the Fox crowd slams the Focus just like it's done the Volt), b) is the more expensive option (the Focus, that is), and c) the Focus lacks a quick-charge option. 20K might be optimistic, but I could easily see 15K..

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

As soon as the DC QC network is in place, there could be a feeding frenzy. whenever I tell people that eventually they will be able to charge the car to 80% in 30 minutes, their eyes light up like it's some kind of miracle. The number of QC installs slated for WA and Oregon this spring/summer is staggering, even if half of them get put in place we'll be having a whole different conversation. I think we could see 10,000 sold right here in the northwest once the infrastructure for L3 is here. It seems like being able to drive to Portland from Seattle is some kind of benchmark for folks... even though they won't do it much, they want to know they can.

 

[adric22]

Funny.. I had always heard the number 150,000 tossed around for this year. I guess that is not the case. Or is that only after the Tennessee factory opens?

I don't think 20,000 per year is enough to "legitimize" an EV in most people's mind. While it is true that many people still don't think the hybrid vehicles serve a legitimate purpose, nobody can deny the strong sales of the Prius. I think if the Leaf gets up to 150,000 per year, that will legitimize it as a mainstream vehicle.

 

[Electric4Me]

Funny.. I had always heard the number 150,000 tossed around for this year. I guess that is not the case. Or is that only after the Tennessee factory opens?

I don't think 20,000 per year is enough to "legitimize" an EV in most people's mind. While it is true that many people still don't think the hybrid vehicles serve a legitimate purpose, nobody can deny the strong sales of the Prius. I think if the Leaf gets up to 150,000 per year, that will legitimize it as a mainstream vehicle.

A lot of people don't want to think of the Prius as a mainstream vehicle...

 

[DaveEV]

I guess the real question is - what do you guys think it will take to sell 24,000 / year (2k / mo) or more? Or what will it take to catch up to the Prius in sales - 10-15k / month 150k / year? It seems that there is currently more than enough demand ~1000 / mo or around 12k / year, but what will it take to double that and beyond?

I think it's going to take a couple things:

1. More range - 30% more range so that 100 mi is easily reachable on the highway and 75 mi is easily reachable on a "long life" charge. 30+ kWh battery pack.
2. Lower price - 20% reduction in price - needs to start in the high $20k range before fed tax credit.
3. QC infrastructure - to enable trips up to 200 mi without hassle.

More capacity should be done with higher energy capacity batteries - don't want to add more weight or take up more room than currently.

Lower price should come with economies of scale - maybe offer 2 battery options to hit lower price points at the expensive of range/performance like Tesla Model S?

Will Nissan be able to do it? I think they're the only company in the position to do it in the next couple years.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

Other than a massive QC network, I think the one main thing standing in the way of expansion is the media. There needs to be a huge effort, and I'm not sure how, to combat the amazing plethera of just awful press coverage as of late. We need to better understand the enemy and figure out who is behind the smear campaign. There also needs to be an almost scientific effort made to deal with people's fear of change. some of the psychological barriers come from almost animal instincts that need to be understood and addressed. We need to use of the tools of the science of how people adapt to change, even look at things like "change management". The high rollers who appose the shift to electrification are using every trick in the book to fan people's most base fears... we and the industry needs to become just as adept at doing the opposite.

I guess the real question is - what do you guys think it will take to sell 24,000 / year (2k / mo) or more? Or what will it take to catch up to the Prius in sales - 10-15k / month 150k / year? It seems that there is currently more than enough demand ~1000 / mo or around 12k / year, but what will it take to double that and beyond?

I think it's going to take a couple things:

1. More range - 30% more range so that 100 mi is easily reachable on the highway and 75 mi is easily reachable on a "long life" charge. 30+ kWh battery pack.
2. Lower price - 20% reduction in price - needs to start in the high $20k range before fed tax credit.
3. QC infrastructure - to enable trips up to 200 mi without hassle.

More capacity should be done with higher energy capacity batteries - don't want to add more weight or take up more room than currently.

Lower price should come with economies of scale - maybe offer 2 battery options to hit lower price points at the expensive of range/performance like Tesla Model S?

Will Nissan be able to do it? I think they're the only company in the position to do it in the next couple years.

 

[ENIAC]

I think the one main thing standing in the way of expansion is the media. There needs to be a huge effort, and I'm not sure how, to combat the amazing plethera of just awful press coverage as of late. We need to better understand the enemy and figure out who is behind the smear campaign.

I think you're spot on here. The press seems to be ganging up on the plug-ins. The LEAF rarely gets any positive press while the Volt gets none. I hope Nissan are keeping track of which media outlets are participating in these smear campaigns and are making their media buys appropriately.

 

[LakeLeaf]

2. Lower price - 20% reduction in price - needs to start in the high $20k range before fed tax credit.

No arguement there. I'd love to know what the price/volume curve really is for the batteries. If there is a decent curve, it gives Nissan significant incentive to sell the snot out of the car. With a good curve, the more sold, the cheaper the batteries, the lower the cost, the more people who are interested, etc.

 

[keydiver]

2. Lower price - 20% reduction in price - needs to start in the high $20k range before fed tax credit.

There are a HUGE number of people who aren't able to take advantage of the $7500 rebate, so I wouldn't even mind if the rebate went away, as long as it would be accompanied by an equivalent drop in MSRP. That would not only open the car up to a lot more prospective buyers, but it would also get the media and others off our backs that complain about the rebate. The Leaf would make a great car for lots of retirees, like my parents, but very few of them pay substantial taxes to take advantage of the rebate.

 

[adric22]

The Leaf would make a great car for lots of retirees, like my parents, but very few of them pay substantial taxes to take advantage of the rebate.

They could always lease the car. That is what I did so I could take advantage of the rebate immediately. My problem was that I wouldn't be able to afford the car payment otherwise.

maybe offer 2 battery options to hit lower price points at the expensive of range/performance like Tesla Model S?

I think this is something that is bound to happen. What I'd like to see is the Leaf designed to take two smaller battery packs on the bottom, rather than one big one. That way they could sell the car right from the lot with a 50 mile range or 100 mile range. Then make it so if the customer decided they needed more range later on, they could add the second battery pack. Also that works out great because as the battery pack ages, they could maybe just replace one of them and a few years later change the second one. That would lower the cost impact of changing the batteries.

I would have been okay with a 50 mile range for my lifestyle, especially if it reduced the cost by $7,000 or so. And it would have been even more attractive if I had known I could always add the other pack later on.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

the trouble is, in cold whether with the CC on, that 50 mile range would be more like 25 for folks who aren't willing to hyper mile and rely heavily on preheating. I would agree if/when battery prices drop so that the current 50-100 mile battery is half the price and a 100-200 mile pack were available as well. then again, the L3 network that appears to be around the corner for the northwest is going to make the current battery seem a whole lot bigger, easily twice the size for minimal hassle. I'd put money on their being a bump in sales for the Leaf in the northwest as soon as the QC network is in place. There are a lot of CHAdeMO projects going on in WA and OR and it's going to be really interesting to see how people feel about the financial equation and the range once it's all in place.

The Leaf would make a great car for lots of retirees, like my parents, but very few of them pay substantial taxes to take advantage of the rebate.

They could always lease the car. That is what I did so I could take advantage of the rebate immediately. My problem was that I wouldn't be able to afford the car payment otherwise.

maybe offer 2 battery options to hit lower price points at the expensive of range/performance like Tesla Model S?

I think this is something that is bound to happen. What I'd like to see is the Leaf designed to take two smaller battery packs on the bottom, rather than one big one. That way they could sell the car right from the lot with a 50 mile range or 100 mile range. Then make it so if the customer decided they needed more range later on, they could add the second battery pack. Also that works out great because as the battery pack ages, they could maybe just replace one of them and a few years later change the second one. That would lower the cost impact of changing the batteries.

I would have been okay with a 50 mile range for my lifestyle, especially if it reduced the cost by $7,000 or so. And it would have been even more attractive if I had known I could always add the other pack later on.

 

[Luft]

As soon as the DC QC network is in place, there could be a feeding frenzy. whenever I tell people that eventually they will be able to charge the car to 80% in 30 minutes, their eyes light up like it's some kind of miracle. The number of QC installs slated for WA and Oregon this spring/summer is staggering, even if half of them get put in place we'll be having a whole different conversation. I think we could see 10,000 sold right here in the northwest once the infrastructure for L3 is here. It seems like being able to drive to Portland from Seattle is some kind of benchmark for folks... even though they won't do it much, they want to know they can.

I think you are correct that being able to charge to 80% in 20 - 30 minutes is going to make the car much more viable. Sales will go up and the press will emphasize that people have to wait in line for hours to use the DC QC.

Maybe I'm just being pessimistic but it does seem that there is a coordinated effort by some to stall or kill the electric car.