Nissan Ariya to be announced for the JDM July 15, 2020

[DougWantsALeaf]

As a silver lining for this group, guessing Leaf sales will then continue to at least 2023 then, hopefully longer.

 

[webeleafowners]

As a silver lining for this group, guessing Leaf sales will then continue to at least 2023 then, hopefully longer.

They are still the go to here for a reasonable priced longer range commuter and occasional road trip. Batteries don’t get affected much by heat here. And Chademo is widely available and continues to be built out. Hope they continue to make improvements and keep the name plate around. We wouldn’t hesitate to buy another.

 

[danrjones]

A combination of the Covid and supplier shutdowns, along with a reevaluation of the Ariya's feature sets compared to the current competition and internal Nissan issues is the cause of this schedule.

Reevaluation? Does that mean Nissan saw Hyundai and Kia coming with superior tech and wanted to delay to bring theirs up to compete? If so, what changes are being made? I would think changing to 800v at this point in development would be... HARD.

I already put $100 down on the Ionic 5. I'm not certain it will be the one, because the price may end up being too high. The first edition of the corresponding Kia EV6 is MSRP 58k. That is WAY too high for me, if the Ionic 5 ends up being about the same, I'll have to pass. It may depend on what features are with what trim level.

 

[alozzy]

@danrjones This article's author seems to think the base price for the Ioniq 5 will be $40k USD:

https://topelectricsuv.com/news/hyundai/hyundai-ioniq-5-details-pre-orders/

 

[OrientExpress]

Reevaluation? Does that mean Nissan saw Hyundai and Kia coming with superior tech and wanted to delay to bring theirs up to compete? If so, what changes are being made? I would think changing to 800v at this point in development would be... HARD.

The BEV market competition has continued to evolve since the Ariya product specs were developed. This, along with the pandemic and supplier constraints gave Nissan the opportunity to make sure that they had a vehicle that was price/feature competitive. There are some edge-case capabilities, like the 800v charging systems that won't make it into the car, but other things might.

Then there is the refresh of the Generation 2 LEAF that is causing angst at Nissan as well.

 

[danrjones]

@danrjones This article's author seems to think the base price for the Ioniq 5 will be $40k USD:

https://topelectricsuv.com/news/hyundai/hyundai-ioniq-5-details-pre-orders/

One could hope. I really would like to keep it down around that number before credits. I'm guessing the dealers will not be open to any discounts off MSRP. Looking at their webpage and the trims, I could live with the bottom trim, except I want full LED headlights, as I have come to expect base model headlights to simply suck, and its a big safety issue to me. Those are currently in the middle trim. Worse, the top trim seems to have BSM. But they call it "Blind Spot View Monitor" which could mean basic BSM is in a lower trim, and only the camera version is in the top trim. I'm good with the standard BSM and without the camera.

I do want the RWD for the range, so that might help the cost.

 

[danrjones]

Reevaluation? Does that mean Nissan saw Hyundai and Kia coming with superior tech and wanted to delay to bring theirs up to compete? If so, what changes are being made? I would think changing to 800v at this point in development would be... HARD.

The BEV market competition has continued to evolve since the Ariya product specs were developed. This, along with the pandemic and supplier constraints gave Nissan the opportunity to make sure that they had a vehicle that was price/feature competitive. There are some edge-case capabilities, like the 800v charging systems that won't make it into the car, but other things might.

Then there is the refresh of the Generation 2 LEAF that is causing angst at Nissan as well.

I'd love to know what Nissan plans to do with the Leaf.

The Ariya still might have some advantages, it was suppose to have a bigger battery - 90 kWh?

Deciding between range and charging speed is an interesting conversation. At this moment I'd probably take range, if the range bump was significant, and the charging speed was still good.

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

Where I struggle with the Ariya is that the base configuration has Leaf Range. AWD is nice, but by the time you add the larger battery, you will be in the mid 40s after federal rebate before tax. That's encroaching on MY and MachE territory. Cargo isnt better than the Leaf. It's going to be coming to market as Ionic, Lucid, and others have all moved on to 800 volt architecture. It's funny, but it's kind of like the Leaf Gen 2 all over again...barely catching up and nearly behind as they launch. I saw the Ionic has even copied the Ariya's moving center console.


For Ariya to be competitive, I think only launch the large battery, and make the AWD version 40K to start before other options. That puts you at potentially 30K +tax in some states for a near 300 mile EV, and would compare favorably to ID4 and MachE and even some MY audience. Good luck though..it will likely please priced closed to 50K with all the goodies.

 

[SageBrush]

Deciding between range and charging speed is an interesting conversation.

When has that ever been a consumer choice ?

 

[SageBrush]

This, along with the pandemic and supplier constraints gave Nissan the opportunity to make sure that they had a vehicle that was price/feature competitive.

Market-speak translated: Nissan realized the Ariya was gong to be a flop: Too little for too high a cost compared to its competitors. I imagine that is mostly ID.4, but perhaps Model Y as well.

The solution is probably to put the Aria in a different market segment. Higher or lower ? Higher and they are definitely butting heads with Tesla; lower and it is unclear if a market exists, not to mention competing with the LEAF.

The other issue Nissan has to face now is the spectre of losing the federal tax credit sooner than they planned due to the delays in the Ariya roll-out. That must have wrecked havoc in their R&D amortization tables, and I imagine is pushing them upscale.

 

[danrjones]

Deciding between range and charging speed is an interesting conversation.

When has that ever been a consumer choice ?

It is, by choosing which vehicle you buy. Get the Hyundai, and you get charging speed, get the Ariya, and you get longer range. Potentially.
Obviously details on both are still pending, but we know the Hyundai and Kia will hit ~250 kW and 10-80% in 18 minutes. We know they have usable battery capacity of 77 kWh in the United states. We know Nissan originally said 90 kWh for the Ariya long range. Will that translate into more range? TBD?

 

[SageBrush]

Deciding between range and charging speed is an interesting conversation.

When has that ever been a consumer choice ?

It is, by choosing which vehicle you buy. Get the Hyundai, and you get charging speed, get the Ariya, and you get longer range. Potentially.
Obviously details on both are still pending, but we know the Hyundai and Kia will hit ~250 kW and 10-80% in 18 minutes. We know they have usable battery capacity of 77 kWh in the United states. We know Nissan originally said 90 kWh for the Ariya long range. Will that translate into more range? TBD?

That is just marketing BS. The high(er) speed charging is from hidden battery capacity

 

[danrjones]

When has that ever been a consumer choice ?

It is, by choosing which vehicle you buy. Get the Hyundai, and you get charging speed, get the Ariya, and you get longer range. Potentially.
Obviously details on both are still pending, but we know the Hyundai and Kia will hit ~250 kW and 10-80% in 18 minutes. We know they have usable battery capacity of 77 kWh in the United states. We know Nissan originally said 90 kWh for the Ariya long range. Will that translate into more range? TBD?

That is just marketing BS. The high(er) speed charging is from hidden battery capacity

Sometimes that is the case, but not always. Hyundai it is because they moved to 800v.

Take Ford. MachE charges at "max" 150 kW. The f150 lightning was announced to charge also at max 150 kW.
But if you think about that, it does not make sense. We don't know exactly the size of the f150 pack, but the extended range pack might be as much as twice the size of the MachE. Certainly 150%. That should mean that the charging rate should increase by the same amount, after all, that would equal the same charge rate per cell.

So the f150 should have a charge rate of between 225 kW and 300 kW, depending on the actual pack size.

Why doesn't it? I would guess other hardware is the limiting factor. Internal cabling perhaps?

But the point is, its not all just battery size. Personally I think this is one area where ford dropped the ball on the f150.

 

[SageBrush]

Sometimes that is the case, but not always. Hyundai it is because they moved to 800v.

No.
More marketing BS

 

[danrjones]

Sometimes that is the case, but not always. Hyundai it is because they moved to 800v.

No.
More marketing BS

Do you have proof of that? You really think Hyundai is hiding half their battery pack in order to get 10-80% in 18 minutes?

Because from a physics standpoint, if you raise the voltage, it means you can pull less current. That does matter when you are running a lot of current through wires. But you already know that.

Sorry, but I don't think it is just marketing.

 

[SageBrush]

Because from a physics standpoint, if you raise the voltage, it means you can pull less current. That does matter when you are running a lot of current through wires. But you already know that.

Sorry, but I don't think it is just marketing.

Agreed about the physics, but that does not extrapolate out to a faster charging session. A simple example is the '400v' system Tesla at a V3 Supercharger or a Ionity station in Europe compared to an '800v' Porsche. at a '350 kW' station. Each case is about the same charging session time because they have similar pack sizes and chemistries. Using similar chemistries, the average C rate will be similar and since the current is not the limiting factor, voltage increases do not matter.

Hyundai is FOS ... unless they are once again sacrificing the pack for PR like they did with Gen1 Ioniq ... until they cut the average C rate in 1/2 by Gen2.

Physics makes this all obvious but common sense will do too: do you *really* think that Hyundai has out-engineered Porsche using commodity LG battery cells ?

 

[danrjones]

Physics makes this all obvious but common sense will do too: do you *really* think that Hyundai has out-engineered Porsche using commodity LG battery cells ?

I suspect you can use the same cells, but in a 800 v architecture. But have they out engineered Porsche?
I don't think they have, but I also don't think they are giving the Ionic 5 a 77 kWh useable out of 110 kWh (or something similar with an insane buffer). I think the actual max rate of the Kia and Hyundai is 250 kW. Do they have a better cooling solution? Is Hyundai sacrificing battery life? I hope not, and they do include a good warranty.


This was my point about Ford. Keeping the same C rate for the cells, Ford really should have been able to give us 200 to 300 kW charging in the F150 simply because the battery is bigger than the MachE. More Cells.

But they didn't. Which makes me think a lot of the limitation isn't just the cell level, but all of the wiring in the vehicle, and at the pack level, that they are simply re-using. They chose not to "size up" the rest of the components. But if you suddenly re-engineered your battery to run at 800v, switchable if I understand it right, then when at 800v you would not have to up the current through the wiring leading to the pack. Double the voltage, leave the current the same.

I could be wrong, but I just don't see Hyundai blowing smoke. And I still think Ford dropped the ball.

But however you slice it, Hyundai and Kia WAY out perform the Ariya for charging. But range? TBD.

 

[knightmb]

But if you suddenly re-engineered your battery to run at 800v, switchable if I understand it right, then when at 800v you would not have to up the current through the wiring leading to the pack. Double the voltage, leave the current the same.

Two sides to that coin. If you double voltage, then yes, the physical wire can be smaller and carry less current. But, the insulation now has to increase exponentially because the higher voltage can break through and start shorting along the way. So basically you are fighting wire that either the copper gets bigger or the installation gets bigger and in those tightly packed cells, 800V might start causing shorts, especially if a lot of it is air gap. Air, while a good insulator, can still conduct with high enough voltage to overcome it. It would just be some new engineering issues to switch to 800V.

 

[danrjones]

But if you suddenly re-engineered your battery to run at 800v, switchable if I understand it right, then when at 800v you would not have to up the current through the wiring leading to the pack. Double the voltage, leave the current the same.

Two sides to that coin. If you double voltage, then yes, the physical wire can be smaller and carry less current. But, the insulation now has to increase exponentially because the higher voltage can break through and start shorting along the way. So basically you are fighting wire that either the copper gets bigger or the installation gets bigger and in those tightly packed cells, 800V might start causing shorts, especially if a lot of it is air gap. Air, while a good insulator, can still conduct with high enough voltage to overcome it. It would just be some new engineering issues to switch to 800V.

Yes that is true.


So do you think Hyundai didn't really do it?

It is all marketing BS ?

 

[GRA]

A combination of the Covid and supplier shutdowns, along with a reevaluation of the Ariya's feature sets compared to the current competition and internal Nissan issues is the cause of this schedule.

Reevaluation? Does that mean Nissan saw Hyundai and Kia coming with superior tech and wanted to delay to bring theirs up to compete? If so, what changes are being made? I would think changing to 800v at this point in development would be... HARD.

I already put $100 down on the Ionic 5. I'm not certain it will be the one, because the price may end up being too high. The first edition of the corresponding Kia EV6 is MSRP 58k. That is WAY too high for me, if the Ionic 5 ends up being about the same, I'll have to pass. It may depend on what features are with what trim level.

My calcs are the same. I like the charging speeds, but the price is almost certainly going to be too high and the range is too limited for the long-term. Still, it does give hope that in a few more years price and range will be where I want them to be.