tps said:The LEAF has allowed me to kick my gasoline habit, cold turkey!edatoakrun said:Many Americans have a dependence on gasoline, bordering on clinical addiction.
+1
:mrgreen:
tps said:The LEAF has allowed me to kick my gasoline habit, cold turkey!edatoakrun said:Many Americans have a dependence on gasoline, bordering on clinical addiction.
I'm going to have to agree w/Train, esp. the part I bolded.Train said:But there is one more problem -- the plug. Nissan is going to have to find a way to bundle plug (ok, EVSE) installation into the price. While we may have all gotten over the hurdle, it is a huge impediment to others from a psychological perspective.
Have you noticed who else is driving these cars? For now, this car is going to sell to (1) the true believers; (2) the rich with an antipathy for foreign oil. All other markets for the car will be of secondary importance until the price comes down, the range goes up, and the up front plug cost issue goes away.
Exactly. Bundling a 220V EVSE could help spur some sales. I look for factory to dealer incentives in a few months. Wait and watch, it's going to happen.
But you drive home the larger point. Until the range is increased substantially and the price is reduced, EV's will remain a niche vehicle. This is quite obvious. It's tough for some to be objective because their own enthusiasm clouds reasonable analysis.
If this car had a $20,000 sticker on it, they could be selling in bunches. That's a reasonable price for what this car provides. At almost twice that price, it just won't make sense, especially for someone that can only own one car. And getting the EVSE, and finding a way to charge it in a car port in an apt complex, and not going to the concert tonight because it's 60 miles from here and I can't make it there and back. And on and on it goes.
These are all reasonable and understandable obstacles that will will cause someone to choose to buy a petrol powered vehicle instead.
The cost of fuel will not matter, even if it rises to $4.50/$4.75 a gallon. People will just buy less of other things to budget fuel for their vehicle, or they'll drive less. That's the simplest thing to do. They need their car to transport them so they do less pleasure driving.
edatoakrun said:jkirkebo said:I think Nissan is continuing to shift deliveries to other countries. In Norway, for example, 214 Leafs were sold in February. Half the number of US deliveries but with 1/65th the population. The Leaf is the 9th most sold car here so far this year with 1.9% market share.
Yes, I suspect Nissan may be intentionally selling as small a percentage it can, in America, out of it's about 3,300 a month (?) total production.
AFAIK, the US LEAF price is the lowest in the world, and at current exchange rates, Nissan is probably losing quite a bit of money, on each US sale.
I wouldn't count on any US incentives, or other effective price cuts, until US production, at much lower cost, starts next year.
And maybe, not even then.
What do you have to pay for a LEAF, in Norway?
kmp647 said:some sort of coupon or whatever, buy a leaf and get the charge dock for free up to whatever $2500 or something.
Good point, this is so strange that this was not included, if it is possible for computers and other devices that can work anywhere and everywhere, 120V 220V 240V you name it.adric22 said:I wonder if a better solution would be to include an auto-sensing 120/240 volt portable EVSE with the car to begin with?
The National Electric Code has a whole sub-section on EVSEs. They can be plugged in or hardwired. But there are multiple 240V outlets in common use. Maybe if everyone decided to adopt the use the same 240V outlet it would be worth including a dual voltage portable EVSE. The cost involved in all those pigtails is only something Tesla can afford to do. One reason for all the different types of 240V outlets is amperage. The other is grounding which is why that idea probably never gets passed the legal department at a big car company. Compare that to the industry standard 120V 15A grounded outlet that is ubiquitous in the USA.EdmondLeaf said:Good point, this is so strange that this was not included, if it is possible for computers and other devices that can work anywhere and everywhere, 120V 220V 240V you name it.adric22 said:I wonder if a better solution would be to include an auto-sensing 120/240 volt portable EVSE with the car to begin with?
I am not electrical code expert, but heard that 240V devices have to be hardwired, but again not dryer or welder so I am not sure why evse?
+1 to both. Even the latest (currently vaporware) battery announcement by Envia won't do it, assuming a more realistic doubling of specific energy (Wh/kg) and halving of $/kWh: 400-500 cycles to 80% DoD is inadequate -- probably 1000-1,200 at a minimum is necessary to allow the battery to last at least ten years/150,000 miles at lesser DoDs.cwerdna said:I'm going to have to agree w/Train, esp. the part I bolded.Train said:But there is one more problem -- the plug. Nissan is going to have to find a way to bundle plug (ok, EVSE) installation into the price. While we may have all gotten over the hurdle, it is a huge impediment to others from a psychological perspective.
Have you noticed who else is driving these cars? For now, this car is going to sell to (1) the true believers; (2) the rich with an antipathy for foreign oil. All other markets for the car will be of secondary importance until the price comes down, the range goes up, and the up front plug cost issue goes away.
Exactly. Bundling a 220V EVSE could help spur some sales. I look for factory to dealer incentives in a few months. Wait and watch, it's going to happen.
But you drive home the larger point. Until the range is increased substantially and the price is reduced, EV's will remain a niche vehicle. This is quite obvious. It's tough for some to be objective because their own enthusiasm clouds reasonable analysis.
If this car had a $20,000 sticker on it, they could be selling in bunches. That's a reasonable price for what this car provides. At almost twice that price, it just won't make sense, especially for someone that can only own one car. And getting the EVSE, and finding a way to charge it in a car port in an apt complex, and not going to the concert tonight because it's 60 miles from here and I can't make it there and back. And on and on it goes.
These are all reasonable and understandable obstacles that will will cause someone to choose to buy a petrol powered vehicle instead.
The cost of fuel will not matter, even if it rises to $4.50/$4.75 a gallon. People will just buy less of other things to budget fuel for their vehicle, or they'll drive less. That's the simplest thing to do. They need their car to transport them so they do less pleasure driving.
This isn't a very good direction for Leaf sales given the wider availability.
Rumored where? The reports are the LEAF battery pack was $375/kWh two years ago.GRA said:If the current Leaf cells and pack cost $12 and $15k as rumored ($500 & $625/kWh)
I would trade my 100 mile range /10 year warranty battery pack for 400 mile range /3 year warranty battery pack in a heartbeat.+1 to both. Even the latest (currently vaporware) battery announcement by Envia won't do it, assuming a more realistic doubling of specific energy (Wh/kg) and halving of $/kWh: 400-500 cycles to 80% DoD is inadequate -- probably 1000-1,200 at a minimum is necessary to allow the battery to last at least ten years/150,000 miles at lesser DoDs.
If the current Leaf cells and pack cost $12 and $15k as rumored ($500 & $625/kWh), you can either double the range for the same price (useful, but still too expensive) or drop the MSRP down below $30k and keep the same range. The best option, IMO, would be to provide one lower-cost version with a freeway range of 100 miles, and another with double current freeway range at the current price. Even so, until BEVs with at least two hours of (worst case) freeway range have MSRPs at or below $25k ($20k preferred), they won't be able to compete head-to-head with ICEVs without subsidies and will remain niche vehicles.
GRA said:... Even so, until BEVs with at least two hours of (worst case) freeway range have MSRPs at or below $25k ($20k preferred), they won't be able to compete head-to-head with ICEVs without subsidies and will remain niche vehicles.
GRA said:If the current Leaf cells and pack cost $12 and $15k as rumored ($500 & $625/kWh), you can either double the range for the same price (useful, but still too expensive) or drop the MSRP down below $30k and keep the same range. The best option, IMO, would be to provide one lower-cost version with a freeway range of 100 miles, and another with double current freeway range at the current price. Even so, until BEVs with at least two hours of (worst case) freeway range have MSRPs at or below $25k ($20k preferred), they won't be able to compete head-to-head with ICEVs without subsidies and will remain niche vehicles.
well I can't afford a Tesla - but my 4 adapter cords cost a whopping $55 to make up. Granted, I did already have a few feet of #10 3and 4 wire laying around ... just sayn' ... it ain't that much.spike09 said:The National Electric Code has a whole sub-section on EVSEs. They can be plugged in or hardwired. But there are multiple 240V outlets in common use. Maybe if everyone decided to adopt the use the same 240V outlet it would be worth including a dual voltage portable EVSE. The cost involved in all those pigtails is only something Tesla can afford to do . . . . . snipEdmondLeaf said:Good point, this is so strange that this was not included, if it is possible for computers and other devices that can work anywhere and everywhere, 120V 220V 240V you name it.adric22 said:I wonder if a better solution would be to include an auto-sensing 120/240 volt portable EVSE with the car to begin with?
I am not electrical code expert, but heard that 240V devices have to be hardwired, but again not dryer or welder so I am not sure why evse?
sigh ... another one to throw onto the "myths" dung heapENIAC said:Rumored where? The reports are the LEAF battery pack was $375/kWh two years ago.GRA said:If the current Leaf cells and pack cost $12 and $15k as rumored ($500 & $625/kWh)
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2010/05/nissan-leaf-battery-packs-break-the-400kwh-barrier/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
GRA said:If the current Leaf cells and pack cost $12 and $15k as rumored ($500 & $625/kWh), you can either double the range for the same price (useful, but still too expensive) or drop the MSRP down below $30k and keep the same range.
ENIAC said:Rumored where? The reports are the LEAF battery pack was $375/kWh two years ago.GRA said:If the current Leaf cells and pack cost $12 and $15k as rumored ($500 & $625/kWh)
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2010/05/nissan-leaf-battery-packs-break-the-400kwh-barrier/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I don't think the bar has been raised significantly on EVs since the '50s. The ultimate range requirement is for at least 4 hours of range @ freeway speeds, worst case, which virtually every ICE on the market can do, for a comparable price to an ICE. Four hours is a fairly typical human limit (bathroom/food breaks), and is unrelated to the ultimate range capability of the powertrain. Some people can go 5-6 hours or even more, especially if you're an astronaut who's used to wearing diapers :lol:, but 4 hours will cover the vast majority of day and weekend trips.Nubo said:GRA said:... Even so, until BEVs with at least two hours of (worst case) freeway range have MSRPs at or below $25k ($20k preferred), they won't be able to compete head-to-head with ICEVs without subsidies and will remain niche vehicles.
Ever since the '70's I've been hearing the argument "EVs won't be viable until..."
What I find interesting is that the bar keeps getting raised on the "until" part.
I guess that's a good thing in that it reflects the increasing capabilities of EV technology. They've been getting better. Meanwhile, oil is getting more expensive and scarcer. Where those two trends intersect is the "until" point. For me and lots of people here, that time has already come. That's the ignition point. Now that the game is on for real amongst the major car manufacturers, the rate of improvements is bound to accelerate.
Interstates and gas stations have make long distance driving easier but I never drive more than a couple of hours straight without taking a break. Driver fatigue causes 20% of driving fatalities. Another reason to drive a Leaf!GRA said:I don't think the bar has been raised significantly on EVs since the '50s. The ultimate range requirement is for at least 4 hours of range @ freeway speeds, worst case, which virtually every ICE on the market can do, for a comparable price to an ICE. Four hours is a fairly typical human limit (bathroom/food breaks), and is unrelated to the ultimate range capability of the powertrain. Some people can go 5-6 hours or even more, especially if you're an astronaut who's used to wearing diapers :lol:, but 4 hours will cover the vast majority of day and weekend trips.Nubo said:GRA said:... Even so, until BEVs with at least two hours of (worst case) freeway range have MSRPs at or below $25k ($20k preferred), they won't be able to compete head-to-head with ICEVs without subsidies and will remain niche vehicles.
Ever since the '70's I've been hearing the argument "EVs won't be viable until..."
What I find interesting is that the bar keeps getting raised on the "until" part.
I guess that's a good thing in that it reflects the increasing capabilities of EV technology. They've been getting better. Meanwhile, oil is getting more expensive and scarcer. Where those two trends intersect is the "until" point. For me and lots of people here, that time has already come. That's the ignition point. Now that the game is on for real amongst the major car manufacturers, the rate of improvements is bound to accelerate.
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