July Plugin Sales : Leaf 395, Volt 1849, PIP 688, FFE 38

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Ok, so I'll state what's obvious to those here: If average gasoline prices reach $4+/gal by summertime ($4.50+/gal in CA), as widely predicted, expect monthly Leaf sales rates to increase. Not sure about hitting 20k for the year, but the higher gas prices would push Leaf sales for 2012 that much closer.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2012/01/forecast-2012-worst-year-for-gas-prices/

“Typically, prices peak in the summer months, or around Memorial Day, as has been the case in 2010 and 2011,” he said.

An increase of 93 cents a gallon could mean average gas prices may rise more than $4 a gallon and could easily approach record highs, he said. In 2004, gas prices had the largest price difference from the new year to their peak, when prices climbed $1.31 per gallon.

If such a gain occurred this year, that would mean the national average could rise to well over $4.25 a gallon, and some areas could see $5 a gallon.

“While that’s not very likely, it does represent a realistic worst case scenario,” he said.

DeHaan said he is traditionally reserved about forecasting oil prices, which hovered above $102 a barrel Thursday. But he said 2012 would almost certainly break all records, in part because of political tension with Iran over its nuclear program.

Iran has threatened to close a key oil passageway, the Strait of Hormuz, in possible retaliation for new economic sanctions from the U.S. and the European Union. Iran holds the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, and the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, according to the EIA.

Should Iran become more hostile and cause a supply disruption, oil prices could soar to all-time highs and approach $175 to $200 a barrel, DeHaan said.

“Coupled with rising demand as a result of a recovering economy, it won’t be pretty,” DeHaan said. “Either way you look at it, 2012 will be among the worst year ever for gasoline prices.”

Daniel O’Connell, senior energy broker with INTL FCStone Inc., said if the price of crude oil increases 8.2 percent in 2011, the U.S. could see a similar price hike in 2012 as jobs, housing and other economic data improve. O’Connell said overall data points to a volatile market with the same trading ranges as those of 2011.

But “if the Iran situation escalates two fold, all bets are off the table, and we will see a disaster regarding energy prices, that this country is not ready to handle just yet,” O’Connell said.
 
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/01/us-electric-car-big-oil-idUSTRE81011820120201
BP predicted that electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, will make up only 4 percent of the global fleet of 1.6 billion commercial and passenger vehicles in 2030.

"Oil will remain the dominant transport fuel and we expect 87 percent of transport fuel in 2030 will still be petroleum based," BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley said...

Exxon Mobil, the biggest oil and gas company in the world, says the continued high cost of electric vehicles compared to petroleum cars, means take-up won't even increase much during the 2030s...

"Exxon would say that, wouldn't they. A big take-up of electric cars is not something they would like to see," said Jos Dings, director of Brussels-based sustainable transport campaign group, Transport and Environment.
 
well, i expected sales to be a bit slow early and to be honest with ya, i am now seeing people who were on the fence leaning towards another options like the PIP because of various issues, charging infrastructure not being built as promised, chargers (YA YOU BLINK!!) not working as expected, lukewarm dealer support, etc.

WA State came out strong in support of EVs but now the Extended EV Highway Project slated for Fall/2011 then pushed to Nov 30, 2011 then pushed to Feb 15, 2012 is now saying March.

the political climate maybe about to change and then EVs and everything green will be pulled if we have a change and that is making people a bit gun shy.
 
http://wjbc.com/mitsubishis-us-sales-slip-in-january/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The 4,711 sales included 36 i vehicles. The all-electric vehicle will be available for customer purchase across the U.S. by summer 2012.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
well, i expected sales to be a bit slow early and to be honest with ya, i am now seeing people who were on the fence leaning towards another options like the PIP because of various issues, charging infrastructure not being built as promised, chargers (YA YOU BLINK!!) not working as expected, lukewarm dealer support, etc.

I think Nissan will have to "encourage" dealers to offer better sales support for the Leaf. Most dealers only have one Leaf "specialist" who is allowed to sell the Leaf. To me this makes absolutely NO sense. Do they have one "specialist" to sell the Armada? the Titan?

I went to the only local Nissan dealer which is able to sell the Leaf and was told the Leaf "specialist" was out giving a test drive (and it wasn't the Leaf). The dealer is at the other end of town so I was pissed to have wasted my time. They gave me his business card and I called and left him a vm, he never called me back.

If all Nissan dealerships were like Fontanna Nissan, Nissan would have no problem selling more than 20,000 Leafs this year. Unfortunately as it is, I don’t see that happening. This is why the traditional dealership model doesn’t work and why Tesla has a chance at success (if they open more dealerships).
 
Perhaps Mitsubishi's sales are down so much because they are not making anything that customers want these days... Their lineup in general is very long of tooth...
evnow said:
http://wjbc.com/mitsubishis-us-sales-slip-in-january/
 
In Canada sales of the LEAF were 30 units in January. Add the 170 units sold in 2011 and the grand total is a whopping 200.
 
I don't think it's a "demand thing", where Canadians aren't buying Leafs because of the climate. I'm pretty sure it's a "supply thing", and Nissan has only shipped that many Leafs for Canadian distribution.

The number of Canadian Volts I've heard sold is only 250, and the Volt is significantly more tolerant of climate than the Leaf is. From what I hear, Volt sales in Canada are definitely supply limited.
GRA said:
muus said:
In Canada sales of the LEAF were 30 units in January. Add the 170 units sold in 2011 and the grand total is a whopping 200.
Hardly a surprise, given the climate.
 
Rusty said:
I don't think it's a "demand thing", where Canadians aren't buying Leafs because of the climate. I'm pretty sure it's a "supply thing", and Nissan has only shipped that many Leafs for Canadian distribution. The number of Canadian Volts I've heard sold is only 250, and the Volt is significantly more tolerant of climate than the Leaf is. From what I hear, Volt sales in Canada are definitely supply limited.
GRA said:
muus said:
In Canada sales of the LEAF were 30 units in January. Add the 170 units sold in 2011 and the grand total is a whopping 200.
Hardly a surprise, given the climate.
And for good reason ... use this and change "Area 2:" to "Canada Average"
http://gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
~$4.50
 
GRA said:
I think the CWP is quite useful in many parts of California. The heated wheel and seats most anywhere, but I think the Leaf would be ideal as a Lake Tahoe local car (AWD would help for winter), and the battery heater would come in handy there if you didn't have a heated garage or kept it outside. It's only 70 miles or so completely around the Lake with little elevation gain or loss and slowish max. speeds, plus thin air to decrease drag. The problem is getting one there right now by any method other than towing or trailering.


Unfortunately, I don't think the Leaf is an ideal car for someone living in Lake Tahoe. A resident rarely drives around the lake, but if you do, there actually are thousands of feet of elevation change. It would be a challenge to circle the lake in a Leaf, possibly doable under the most ideal conditions, but very challenging.

People who live around Lake Tahoe actually regularly travel to places like Carson City, Reno, and Sacramento. Certainly one would understand that Sacramento/Placerville is a non-returnable trip from anywhere around the lake. Being able to get to Reno from anywhere but the northern parts of the lake is very difficult with the Leaf's range, and similarly with Carson City. Even with the fabulous FedEx service in the basin, one still needs to leave town regularly. Just a fact of life when living in the middle of nowhere.

There are a few chargers now in Reno, so if you are willing to eat Einstein bagels for most of the afternoon, you might make the trip to and from Reno from the north. No such luck in Carson or Garderville. The only Nissan dealer is in Reno. Carson City Nissan closed about a year ago, and the closest in California is in Shingle Springs - which is way to far down the hill to return from.

It's hard to justify spending $30k+ on a car that you are only going to use to go places you could bike or walk to. You tend to either shop in town, or leave the basin. It's very rare that you forego your tourist traps to frequent the tourist traps in another town around the lake.

In the winter (well, most winters - but certainly not *this* winter) the temperatures can get downright frigid. This just reduces the usable range all that more. Absolutely no chance of leaving and returning to the basin in the winter. If you are going to use the Leaf for your primary (i.e. commute to work and have to get there despite the snow) car, you require studded tires - which kill the range even more. Can't be in a position to put on and take off chains and expect to keep a time schedule. With the under carriage of the car - it is also very easy to have the car just lift itself off the snow (which the Prius's do from time to time also). The front of the car just catches the snow and packs it under the car while you drive and it can build over a few tens of feet and lift your tires enough off the road that they have no more traction. When you get dozens of feet of snow in a winter, you can't always count on the snowplows having your trip route cleared.

Most of us locals like to hit the slopes regularly. Getting back in your car after a day on the slopes, you tend to be rather moist and need to spend significant energy to keep the windows clear. Even an ICE sometimes has trouble keeping things clear to see well enough to drive.

I spent quite a bit of time trying to get Nissan, the EV Project, local governments and businesses interested in putting in a QC highway from the Bay Area to Tahoe, as we would seem to be the ideal EV tourist destination, but could not get any interest what so ever. Having an array of QC's around the basin would certainly be helpful in the efforts to bring the Leaf to the basin.
 
LakeLeaf said:
...
I spent quite a bit of time trying to get Nissan, the EV Project, local governments and businesses interested in putting in a QC highway from the Bay Area to Tahoe, as we would seem to be the ideal EV tourist destination, but could not get any interest what so ever. Having an array of QC's around the basin would certainly be helpful in the efforts to bring the Leaf to the basin.

good on you for putting effort into it. we are waiting with baited breath up here for the network we are promised is weeks/months away and I do believe it's going to be a game changer for EV's everywhere. I L2 network we have here is hardly getting used and for me, hardly making a difference. L3 should be the focus of the EV project and infrastructure funding from here out, then fill in with L2 where it's needed and likely to actually get used.
 
Horrible numbers really. But it's one month and you have to figure all the effort the conservative media put into pounding the Volt and by extension all electric cars had an impact. Next month should be better as the "electric cars spontaneously combust" idea fades into oblivion. FYI, if you think the fire issue didn't affect the Leaf, think again. Two friends asked me if I had taken the Leaf in for the fire recall work, which is pretty amazing since even the Volt didn't technically involve a recall.

However, as I've said before, companies are going to have to learn how to sell these cars. Just repeating "Zero Emissions" isn't going to move a lot of units for Nissan once they move beyond those markets where hybrids have significant penetration. The Leaf has a low total cost of ownership, is fun to drive around town, and qualifies for the HOV lane. Lots of material to work with but Nissan needs to move up the learning curve.

The good news is that if you have a good product eventually people figure it out.
 
LakeLeaf said:
GRA said:
I think the CWP is quite useful in many parts of California. The heated wheel and seats most anywhere, but I think the Leaf would be ideal as a Lake Tahoe local car (AWD would help for winter), and the battery heater would come in handy there if you didn't have a heated garage or kept it outside. It's only 70 miles or so completely around the Lake with little elevation gain or loss and slowish max. speeds, plus thin air to decrease drag. The problem is getting one there right now by any method other than towing or trailering.
Unfortunately, I don't think the Leaf is an ideal car for someone living in Lake Tahoe. A resident rarely drives around the lake, but if you do, there actually are thousands of feet of elevation change. It would be a challenge to circle the lake in a Leaf, possibly doable under the most ideal conditions, but very challenging.

People who live around Lake Tahoe actually regularly travel to places like Carson City, Reno, and Sacramento. Certainly one would understand that Sacramento/Placerville is a non-returnable trip from anywhere around the lake. Being able to get to Reno from anywhere but the northern parts of the lake is very difficult with the Leaf's range, and similarly with Carson City. Even with the fabulous FedEx service in the basin, one still needs to leave town regularly. Just a fact of life when living in the middle of nowhere.

There are a few chargers now in Reno, so if you are willing to eat Einstein bagels for most of the afternoon, you might make the trip to and from Reno from the north. No such luck in Carson or Garderville. The only Nissan dealer is in Reno. Carson City Nissan closed about a year ago, and the closest in California is in Shingle Springs - which is way to far down the hill to return from.

It's hard to justify spending $30k+ on a car that you are only going to use to go places you could bike or walk to. You tend to either shop in town, or leave the basin. It's very rare that you forego your tourist traps to frequent the tourist traps in another town around the lake.

In the winter (well, most winters - but certainly not *this* winter) the temperatures can get downright frigid. This just reduces the usable range all that more. Absolutely no chance of leaving and returning to the basin in the winter. If you are going to use the Leaf for your primary (i.e. commute to work and have to get there despite the snow) car, you require studded tires - which kill the range even more. Can't be in a position to put on and take off chains and expect to keep a time schedule. With the under carriage of the car - it is also very easy to have the car just lift itself off the snow (which the Prius's do from time to time also). The front of the car just catches the snow and packs it under the car while you drive and it can build over a few tens of feet and lift your tires enough off the road that they have no more traction. When you get dozens of feet of snow in a winter, you can't always count on the snowplows having your trip route cleared.

Most of us locals like to hit the slopes regularly. Getting back in your car after a day on the slopes, you tend to be rather moist and need to spend significant energy to keep the windows clear. Even an ICE sometimes has trouble keeping things clear to see well enough to drive.

I spent quite a bit of time trying to get Nissan, the EV Project, local governments and businesses interested in putting in a QC highway from the Bay Area to Tahoe, as we would seem to be the ideal EV tourist destination, but could not get any interest what so ever. Having an array of QC's around the basin would certainly be helpful in the efforts to bring the Leaf to the basin.
Many thanks for the insight, and totally agree about the need for a route from the Bay Area. I was thinking of the Leaf or similar range EVs mainly as a local car for residents, not one for longish trips out of the basin as the infrastructure currently exists. I am thinking primarily of routes around the Lake and local ski resorts, although I'd think that Reno would be doable from Incline Village and Carson City from SLT/Stateline.

As you said, I would expect locals would have little need/interest in driving around the lake, but would usually be taking trips to spots on one side or the other and return, i.e. 25 miles one-way or less; tourists would be doing much the same once they arrived. I was also assuming that there would be L2 chargers (at least) at likely locations in Truckee, Tahoe City, Kings Beach, Incline Village, Meeks Bay, Camp Richardson, Stateline, SLT, ski resorts and pretty much any public beach as well as enroute L3 charging along 80 and 50 from Sacramento to get you there, plus L3s in Reno, Carson City, Truckee, and Stateline/SLT. As it is, I've plotted routes using RV parks to show it would be doable from the Bay Area, although it would be an all-day or even two-day trip with only L2 charging.

Per Google maps and GPS Visualizer, the maximum elevation change on the main highways (89, 28, 50) around the lake is 847 ft., with the two peaks at Emerald Bay on the west side, and the junction of 28 and 50 on the east side. Except for those two points the max. elevation change is 300 ft. or less. It's been awhile since I drove up or down the east side so I don't remember what the slope is like there, but around Emerald Bay the turns are very tight and the speeds are very low; some turns are posted 15 mph or less IIRR. In short, an ideal climb for an EV. As for ground clearance, I bow to your knowledge; something like a RAV4 EV would clearly be better in winter (I drive a Forester), but that's a given. OTOH, in winter the speeds are quite low, compensating to a considerable extent for the temperature (and assuming there are L2 chargers where you're going, it's a non-issue).
 
cwerdna said:
It'll be interesting to see if this low sales trend of the Leaf continues despite the roll out to more states. .......................snip
Battery heating and insulation is worthless in CA and many other states.
cwerdna - have you heard of Mamouth? Mount Baldy? Lake Arrowhead? Shasta? Redding? South Lake Tahoe? Heck even death valley's record low temp was 15 degrees
... ok ... I'll stop now.
:D

yea - I'd definately want the battery low temp package ... and not just for our Kalispell home.
 
LakeLeaf said:
................ snip
I spent quite a bit of time trying to get Nissan, the EV Project, local governments and businesses interested in putting in a QC highway from the Bay Area to Tahoe, as we would seem to be the ideal EV tourist destination, but could not get any interest what so ever. Having an array of QC's around the basin would certainly be helpful in the efforts to bring the Leaf to the basin.
Chicken and the egg. You have GM (vis a vis SAE) fighting Chademo - thought they have no EV's to sell ... so many who might otherwise install the Chademo, want to make certain they don't end up buying the equivelent of a 1980 video laser disk player.

.
 
January Leaf sales in Japan: 987
http://logsoku.com/thread/kohada.2ch.net/auto/1328450221/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

January Leaf sales in Germany: 26
http://www.heise.de/autos/artikel/Die-Zulassungszahlen-im-Januar-2012-1432811.html?bild=9;view=bildergalerie" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
Actually, it rarely gets cold enough in any of those places to even trigger the battery heater...

hill said:
have you heard of Mamouth? Mount Baldy? Lake Arrowhead? Shasta? Redding? South Lake Tahoe? Heck even death valley's record low temp was 15 degrees
... ok ... I'll stop now. I'd definately want the battery low temp package.
 
hill said:
LakeLeaf said:
................ snip
I spent quite a bit of time trying to get Nissan, the EV Project, local governments and businesses interested in putting in a QC highway from the Bay Area to Tahoe, as we would seem to be the ideal EV tourist destination, but could not get any interest what so ever. Having an array of QC's around the basin would certainly be helpful in the efforts to bring the Leaf to the basin.
Chicken and the egg. You have GM (vis a vis SAE) fighting Chademo - thought they have no EV's to sell ... so many who might otherwise install the Chademo, want to make certain they don't end up buying the equivelent of a 1980 video laser disk player.

.

I am not sure why GM is even bothering fighting it. Granted I like my Volt, but I agree they need to stay out of the Chademo standards. The Volt does not need L3, and until the Spark EV comes out they have no stake in the true EV game. Personally I like the Chademo style better than the proposed J1772 L3 (with the huge 2 prong below the standard connector) as it looks clunky, and hard to insert. Where at least the Chademo is a circle, and looks more intuitive to use.
 
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