JPVLeaf
Well-known member
Ok, so I'll state what's obvious to those here: If average gasoline prices reach $4+/gal by summertime ($4.50+/gal in CA), as widely predicted, expect monthly Leaf sales rates to increase. Not sure about hitting 20k for the year, but the higher gas prices would push Leaf sales for 2012 that much closer.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2012/01/forecast-2012-worst-year-for-gas-prices/
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2012/01/forecast-2012-worst-year-for-gas-prices/
“Typically, prices peak in the summer months, or around Memorial Day, as has been the case in 2010 and 2011,” he said.
An increase of 93 cents a gallon could mean average gas prices may rise more than $4 a gallon and could easily approach record highs, he said. In 2004, gas prices had the largest price difference from the new year to their peak, when prices climbed $1.31 per gallon.
If such a gain occurred this year, that would mean the national average could rise to well over $4.25 a gallon, and some areas could see $5 a gallon.
“While that’s not very likely, it does represent a realistic worst case scenario,” he said.
DeHaan said he is traditionally reserved about forecasting oil prices, which hovered above $102 a barrel Thursday. But he said 2012 would almost certainly break all records, in part because of political tension with Iran over its nuclear program.
Iran has threatened to close a key oil passageway, the Strait of Hormuz, in possible retaliation for new economic sanctions from the U.S. and the European Union. Iran holds the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, and the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, according to the EIA.
Should Iran become more hostile and cause a supply disruption, oil prices could soar to all-time highs and approach $175 to $200 a barrel, DeHaan said.
“Coupled with rising demand as a result of a recovering economy, it won’t be pretty,” DeHaan said. “Either way you look at it, 2012 will be among the worst year ever for gasoline prices.”
Daniel O’Connell, senior energy broker with INTL FCStone Inc., said if the price of crude oil increases 8.2 percent in 2011, the U.S. could see a similar price hike in 2012 as jobs, housing and other economic data improve. O’Connell said overall data points to a volatile market with the same trading ranges as those of 2011.
But “if the Iran situation escalates two fold, all bets are off the table, and we will see a disaster regarding energy prices, that this country is not ready to handle just yet,” O’Connell said.