July Plugin Sales : Leaf 395, Volt 1849, PIP 688, FFE 38

[SanDust]

LOL. This is from last month ...

Every month seems to restart silly season. GM's official goal was originally 10,000 units produced. No doubt about that. You can find that number in a thousand places. Just do a search. To help you get started, see this article from January 2011: http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/01/will-gm-sell-120k-volts-next-year/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

During the year GM shut production, added more jobs, and then restarted production with the goal of producing 16,000 units and doing a nationwide rollout. Production didn't ramp up that quickly and one side effect was that for a few months sales actually dropped. Take out that temporary drop and 10,000 sales is easily exceeded. Far more importantly, if you look at November and December sales you're looking at a conservative run rate of about 15,000: 1,500 x 12 = 18,000/yr or 1,100 x 12 = 13,200/yr.

Nissan likewise fell short of its production and delivery goals. Big deal. They had a few problems to deal with and it's amazing they managed to produce and deliver as many as they did. Very impressive. The bigger question is whether the November/December sales rate for the Leaf is just a blip or represents a real capacity limited run rate of 12,000 units a year, which I suspect it is.

In both the case of the Volt and the Leaf it's more about owner satisfaction than anything else. You can always tweak the marketing if you have a good product but nothing will save a bad one.

 

[redLEAF]

I think it may have been mentioned before but perhaps doesn't get published as much but wouldn't 'days in inventory' be a better indicator of the demand side rather than just posted sales --- take a look at the 2012 LEAF (averages just 4 days in dealer inventory!); it's the shortest for ANY 2012 car ! ; the Chevy Volt isn't even listed, either for '11's or '12's. This link was posted in December (on 12/20) so would assume it can't include any month or year-end push by dealer's (or in the case of EV's, to get the tax incentive in before year end), the poor ol' Fiat 500 (which just came out last year) is averaging 64 days !

http://blog.truecar.com/2011/12/20/...ortest-and-longest-days-in-vehicle-inventory/


Looking back into October ... (not sure if this one is using the same source, assume there isn't many of these measurement services around) the LEAF wasn't even listed, so I'm not sure at what point it's calculated ...

http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2011/11/movers-and-losers-october-2011.html

Seem to recall one other auto statistic on 'days of supply' but seems to only be available by subscription -- this would tell a better story as to how many vehicles are 'available' for sale in a mfg. inventory to fulfill demand; regardless my car was one of the ones 'sold' in December along with several others around Chicago and I still have yet to see another on the road (other than as a dealer demo)

 

[scottf200]

Nice new chart - that'll help visual a trend.

 

[evnow]

Seem to recall one other auto statistic on 'days of supply' but seems to only be available by subscription -- this would tell a better story as to how many vehicles are 'available' for sale in a mfg. inventory to fulfill demand; regardless my car was one of the ones 'sold' in December along with several others around Chicago and I still have yet to see another on the road (other than as a dealer demo)

The "days of supply" and other stats are useful to get an idea of cars sold in the traditional way. But since each Leaf is a special order, those numbers are not very useful. It is also not clear at what stage in the delivery of a car is it considered to be in the "inventory". That "4 days" tells me - most likely they are considering the stage when the the car is delivered to the dealer and gets into the inventory of the dealer (and appears in places likes cars.com). The person who ordered will come in and pickup the car after it is made ready by the dealer in a couple of days.

What would be a good metric - which Nissan will not publish - is that # of orders they get every month (and % of orphans that get created). GM, ofcourse, has never told us the # of orders. So as for as Volt is concerned it is all smoke and mirrors.

 

[redLEAF]

Seem to recall one other auto statistic on 'days of supply' but seems to only be available by subscription -- this would tell a better story as to how many vehicles are 'available' for sale in a mfg. inventory to fulfill demand; regardless my car was one of the ones 'sold' in December along with several others around Chicago and I still have yet to see another on the road (other than as a dealer demo)

The "days of supply" and other stats are useful to get an idea of cars sold in the traditional way. But since each Leaf is a special order, those numbers are not very useful. It is also not clear at what stage in the delivery of a car is it considered to be in the "inventory". That "4 days" tells me - most likely they are considering the stage when the the car is delivered to the dealer and gets into the inventory of the dealer (and appears in places likes cars.com). The person who ordered will come in and pickup the car after it is made ready by the dealer in a couple of days.

What would be a good metric - which Nissan will not publish - is that # of orders they get every month (and % of orphans that get created). GM, ofcourse, has never told us the # of orders. So as for as Volt is concerned it is all smoke and mirrors.

Agree on the 'special order' aspect, as far as the 'days in inventory' statistic, what is interesting is that once the LEAF is close to being delivered to the dealer (not sure of the actual time frame) Nissan CS says the online status of a customer order assigned VIN changes to 'wholesale' and Nissan corp. invoices the dealer; once it's actually in the dealer inventory and being prepped it changes again to 'retail' and of course the dealer can notify the customer their car is ready for pick up; in my own case the car was at the dealer late on a Wednesday, prepped on Thursday and then I picked it up on Friday -- does that constitute 3 days in inventory ? don't know but like I said not many '12's are getting orphaned in the midwest; lastly, I have yet to see (and I've been looking every Sunday at the big dealer ad's) a Nissan dealer even advertising that they have a LEAF in stock to test drive versus those Chevy dealer's selling Volt's -- some are offering a pretty good discount on the Volt already but I'm not sure if it's a 'packed" (dealer add on's) cars as the staring price exceed's $45K on some of these (if you go to dealer online site they all say 'call for price')

 

[evnow]

Near me (100 miles) I see 11 Leafs - 5 '12 and rest '11. Only 5 of these even have non-stock images. 3 of them don't even have a price. None of them look discounted. I've to say the orphan status near Seattle is no different now than it was 6 months back.

 

[GRA]

What I'll be most interested to see is what happens to Volt sales vice Leafs in California once the AT/PZEV-compliant Volt is available, and they can get the HOV stickers. I expect a big bump (much as happened with Prius sales) for the Volt, but just how big a bump remains to be seen. Here in the Bay Area I've yet to see a Volt, even though I know a fair number have been sold here and I've been looking for them. I've seen somewhere between 5 and 11 Leafs, i.e. at least one of every color, including one silver one today.

 

[EVDRIVER]

What I'll be most interested to see is what happens to Volt sales vice Leafs in California once the AT/PZEV-compliant Volt is available, and they can get the HOV stickers. I expect a big bump (much as happened with Prius sales) for the Volt, but just how big a bump remains to be seen. Here in the Bay Area I've yet to see a Volt, even though I know a fair number have been sold here and I've been looking for them. I've seen somewhere between 5 and 11 Leafs, i.e. at least one of every color, including one silver one today.

When driving I see at LEAST one LEAF a day. Sometimes 3-4 in the bay area. One day I saw two driving within a couple blocks of my house.

 

[muus]

Nissan dealers delivered 59 Leafs in Canada during the month of December which is exactly twice as many as the number of Cubes delivered in the same month. Total for the year is 170.
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/901685/nissan-canada-inc-reports-record-sales-for-2011

 

[KJD]

It might be interesting to see Mitsubishi numbers in the chart as they start to roll them out.

"The company also sold 76 i vehicles in the U.S. last month, the first full month of domestic sales, Mitsubishi Motors North America spokeswoman Christine Jew told AutoblogGreen."

http://green.autoblog.com/2012/01/06/mitsubishi-bumps-up-nationwide-release-of-its-i-electric-vehicle/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[tps]

I don't know about the Volt, but LEAF sales are certainly not an indication of demand. Nissan could have sold me a LEAF anytime they wanted; they chose to do so next month. I'm sure there are many others in the same position as I. As has been said many times before by those who understand the situation, LEAF sales at this point is entirely driven by supply. The reservation system works sort of like the doctor's waiting room or the customer support "all representatives are busy serving other customers" queue: it provides Nissan with a steady supply of LEAF customers. We may not know the real demand until the queue becomes drained.

 

[SanDust]

What I'll be most interested to see is what happens to Volt sales vice Leafs in California once the AT/PZEV-compliant Volt is available, and they can get the HOV stickers. I expect a big bump (much as happened with Prius sales) for the Volt, but just how big a bump remains to be seen.

Good point. I think the Volt will also be eligible for a $1500 rebate.

 

[GRA]

What I'll be most interested to see is what happens to Volt sales vice Leafs in California once the AT/PZEV-compliant Volt is available, and they can get the HOV stickers. I expect a big bump (much as happened with Prius sales) for the Volt, but just how big a bump remains to be seen.

Good point. I think the Volt will also be eligible for a $1500 rebate.

Yes, they will qualify for a Cal. rebate. I think Volt sales have been artificially depressed in California - once people learned that the PZEV version would be available sometime in 2012, I expect many of them held off buying for that reason. Once those versions are available, Volt sales will be artificially increased (as with any incentive program). IIRR, used Prii with the stickers were selling for $2-3,000 more than those without, which gives an idea of how much people value their time and/or decreased stress levels. We'll just have to see whether dealers try to gouge customers for that much or more.

Guy

 

[Herm]

I think Volt sales have been artificially depressed in California - once people learned that the PZEV version would be available sometime in 2012, I expect many of them held off buying for that reason.

The Volt also has the ability to cruise at 80mph in the HOV lane without worrying about running out of charge.. GM would be smart to allocate extra Volts to California due to the HOV sticker.

 

[evnow]

Apparently 8 Focus EVs were sold as well !

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1071246_electric-car-sales-for-2011-modest-first-year-numbers-hardly-a-surprise" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ford sold precisely 8 of its 2012 Focus Electric compact hatchbacks. That's 8 battery electric versions out of a total of 14,281 Focus models sold in December.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

ok, this topic is for "Plugin Sales" so what we need is a chart or speadsheet now that we will soon have half dozen or more options to track!

 

[evnow]

ok, this topic is for "Plugin Sales" so what we need is a chart or speadsheet now that we will soon have half dozen or more options to track!

Yes - I'll probably change the format from next month.

 

[edatoakrun]

Sounds like we may see Volt sales limited by market demand rather than production constraints, fairly soon, if we haven't already.

DETROIT—General Motors Co.’s chief executive said Sunday night that the auto maker expects to match production of its plug-in, gas-electric car to consumer demand, declining to say whether the company would meet its initial sales projections this year.

“There are new variables in the equation so we’ll see,” CEO Dan Akerson said on the sidelines of a Cadillac event in advance of the Detroit auto show. “I think we’ve been responsible, and we’ve been responsive to customer needs.”

GM said earlier this week that it has developed fixes to ensure its battery-powered Chevrolet Volt poses no unusual risk of fire following a serious crash, hoping to end a high-profile U.S. safety investigation that has threatened sales of the car.

Volt sales in 2011 fell well short of GM’s goal to sell 10,000 in the U.S. The auto maker is looking to sell 45,000 Volts in 2012.

Asked whether the fire issue was now behind GM, Mr. Akerson said, “It only had happened … 21 days after it was hit. So that’s a good thing.”

About six weeks ago, the company disclosed that U.S. safety officials started an investigation into the Volt’s lithium-ion battery pack after three of the batteries sparked or caught fire days or weeks after being damaged in crash tests...

http://blogs.wsj.com/drivers-seat/2012/01/08/gm-to-keep-volt-production-in-line-with-demand/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[evnow]

Sounds like we may see Volt sales limited by market demand rather than production constraints, fairly soon, if we haven't already.

Volt hasn't been supply constrained for a couple of months now.

 

[Kane]

Depending on source, Leaf delivery in 2011 in Norway was 373-381 (almost all in Q4):
:arrow: (381) http://www.elbil.no/elbiler/569-2242-er-antallet-nye-elbiler-i-2011" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
:arrow: (381) http://gronnbil.no/nyheter/eventyrlig-elbilsalg-i-2011-article218-239.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
:arrow: (373) - http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2012/01/05/norway-full-year-2011-vw-golf-and-passat-lead-mitsubishi-asx-at-its-best-in-the-world/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Total EV registeration: 2242 (over 3 times more than in 2010) - almost 50% i-MiEV, and 83% EVs from Japan (i-MiEV, Leaf, iOn, C-Zero).