Buy This Battery?

[DaveinOlyWA]

considering they cant keep up with a 2000-2500/month sales pace, I am guessing there is "something" that is not running up to snuff

Yes, but is it the battery factory? Could it be the new motor/inverter/charging stack? Hence the spate of 2013 PDM problems?

stating the obvious here I think...

Well, my wife does tell me *all the time* that I'm a master of the obvious. I'm pretty sure that's a complement.


Good points on the reasons, too. I'm sure you are right -- it's a combination of the price and the current capabilities.

I personally think its the battery that is the holdup with production. Nissan plants run multiple models on the same lines so adding another (LEAF) is not going to be all that much different especially when most of the stations are very similar and the ones that are not are almost always MUCH easier than their gas counterparts.

But batteries are built in batches that take several weeks to complete and not totally clued in on the process but guessing the results of each batch is not known until the final product is completed and tested.

this has to make troubleshooting and refining the process all that much more difficult

 

[thankyouOB]

tell us what you think the real reason is that nissan pulled the bait-and-switch on buyers of the car and told them they could never own or buy a replacement battery.

I agree with the other posters -- price is the reason they haven't put the battery on sale yet.

If the battery price is too high, and it probably is, Nissan will take an enormous public relations beating. Not only here at MNL (I can already imagine how those threads would go... "OMG! HOW COULD THEY DO THIS! THEY ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THEIR EARLY ADOPTERS, I WILL NEVER BUY ANOTHER... etc."), but a high price would also be widely reported. Nissan would take a beating in the main stream press, plus create the impression that EVs are too expensive to repair. (And who know, that might actually be true if the battery price is crazy high).

i dont get how a high battery price would be a public relations disaster. we already know it is the most expensive component and system in the car.
and folks already know that the battery price includes thousands of dollars you dont have to pay for gasoline.

 

[surfingslovak]

i dont get how a high battery price would be a public relations disaster. we already know it is the most expensive component and system in the car.
and folks already know that the battery price includes thousands of dollars you dont have to pay for gasoline.

Yes, this reflects my thoughts on the matter as well. Additionally, I found it a bit ironic that the i3 battery pack price apparently leaked out before the car was officially unveiled, and BMW sold one vehicle. When you look it up at Google, battery replacement price, along with capacity, life and warranty are the most commonly searched terms. This is a topic of interest to a large number of people.

 

[TomT]

Kind of makes you wonder if they will ever make it to the 200,000 batteries a year figure that they originally toted for the Tenn. factory...

I personally think its the battery that is the holdup with production. Nissan plants run multiple models on the same lines so adding another (LEAF) is not going to be all that much different especially when most of the stations are very similar and the ones that are not are almost always MUCH easier than their gas counterparts.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

tell us what you think the real reason is that nissan pulled the bait-and-switch on buyers of the car and told them they could never own or buy a replacement battery.

I agree with the other posters -- price is the reason they haven't put the battery on sale yet.

If the battery price is too high, and it probably is, Nissan will take an enormous public relations beating. Not only here at MNL (I can already imagine how those threads would go... "OMG! HOW COULD THEY DO THIS! THEY ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THEIR EARLY ADOPTERS, I WILL NEVER BUY ANOTHER... etc."), but a high price would also be widely reported. Nissan would take a beating in the main stream press, plus create the impression that EVs are too expensive to repair. (And who know, that might actually be true if the battery price is crazy high).

its not the price of the battery that is the issue. Its the real possibility of the replacement pack failing before its paid off.
If tye pack was $15,000 but guranteed to have at least 90% of its capacity after 150,000 miles would u do it?

sure u would. With that kind of unparalleled reliability most would. But that is jot the case. The c9st is not the question

i dont get how a high battery price would be a public relations disaster. we already know it is the most expensive component and system in the car.
and folks already know that the battery price includes thousands of dollars you dont have to pay for gasoline.

 

[dhanson865]

If the price of a new battery is indeed $18,000 then the resale value of these cars at 60,000 to 80,000 miles will be close to the scrap value of the metals.

No, because you can buy a used Leaf, pay $100 per month and get a new battery which will be kept at 9 bars or above. Over a period of 8 years that is $9600.

And why do you think that would prop up the value of a used leaf?

If I buy a used Prius it is likely I won't spend $1000 in repairs in that time so the used value of the Leaf has to be that much less than a Prius to offset the cost of replacing the battery.

Sure the Leaf will be cheaper to operate per mile on electric vs gas for the Prius but we are talking about a couple of cents per mile and $9600 battery lease (-$1000 for equivalent repairs for a Prius) offsets a lot of miles at even 3 cents per mile that is something like 275,000 miles total or 35,000 miles per year you'd have to drive your used Leaf to make the battery lease pay off if the resale value of a Leaf and a Prius are equal.

Obviously the average driver isn't going to put 35,000 miles a year on their car so the resale price of a leaf has to be considerably less when the battery degrades.

Big battery cost all at once = low resale value
Big battery cost spread out by a $100 / month lease = low resale value

I really don't see how anyone thinks that a battery replacement lease makes a used Leaf more attractive.

I also don't see the lease as any more attractive than a single payment battery replacement charge.

 

[hyperlexis]

If the price of a new battery is indeed $18,000 then the resale value of these cars at 60,000 to 80,000 miles will be close to the scrap value of the metals.

No, because you can buy a used Leaf, pay $100 per month and get a new battery which will be kept at 9 bars or above. Over a period of 8 years that is $9600.

And why do you think that would prop up the value of a used leaf?

If I buy a used Prius it is likely I won't spend $1000 in repairs in that time so the used value of the Leaf has to be that much less than a Prius to offset the cost of replacing the battery.

Sure the Leaf will be cheaper to operate per mile on electric vs gas for the Prius but we are talking about a couple of cents per mile and $9600 battery lease (-$1000 for equivalent repairs for a Prius) offsets a lot of miles at even 3 cents per mile that is something like 275,000 miles total or 35,000 miles per year you'd have to drive your used Leaf to make the battery lease pay off if the resale value of a Leaf and a Prius are equal.

Obviously the average driver isn't going to put 35,000 miles a year on their car so the resale price of a leaf has to be considerably less when the battery degrades.

Big battery cost all at once = low resale value
Big battery cost spread out by a $100 / month lease = low resale value

I really don't see how anyone thinks that a battery replacement lease makes a used Leaf more attractive.

I also don't see the lease as any more attractive than a single payment battery replacement charge.

What really should come to pass is that Nissan as a company, makes the decision that they will increase the battery capacity loss warranty exponentially.

To lure hesitant buyers concerned about the issue, the warranty should extend to at least 100k mi. if not more. Imagine telling an ICE buyer that his engine would most likely need a ring job or a new block or transmission before 100k. I for one would run from the showroom, unless the car was a $4,000 Tata Nano.... To tell an EV buyer essentially the same thing would, rightly, be cause for alarm.

Nissan will have to bite the bullet and agree to heavily subsidy the battery capacity issue, at their own loss, via a much better warranty, by raising costs or saving money elsewhere, namely on their other, more profitable products. Until they can get the actual cost of the battery replacement or repair down to acceptable levels, this may just be what they will have to do to get people to buy.

American buyers generally want to own. Period. Saying that well it will just be $100 a month to lease the battery (not get an 'extended warranty' on it) etc., will still be a huge psychological hurdle to overcome for Nissan in the US. That will stifle Leaf sales.

They need to bite the bullet, and really boost the capacity loss warranty. At least match or beat Hyundai. 10 years/100k mi.

 

[OPECsux]

If the price of a new battery is indeed $18,000 then the resale value of these cars at 60,000 to 80,000 miles will be close to the scrap value of the metals.

No, because you can buy a used Leaf, pay $100 per month and get a new battery which will be kept at 9 bars or above. Over a period of 8 years that is $9600.

And why do you think that would prop up the value of a used leaf?

If I buy a used Prius it is likely I won't spend $1000 in repairs in that time so the used value of the Leaf has to be that much less than a Prius to offset the cost of replacing the battery.

Sure the Leaf will be cheaper to operate per mile on electric vs gas for the Prius but we are talking about a couple of cents per mile and $9600 battery lease (-$1000 for equivalent repairs for a Prius) offsets a lot of miles at even 3 cents per mile that is something like 275,000 miles total or 35,000 miles per year you'd have to drive your used Leaf to make the battery lease pay off if the resale value of a Leaf and a Prius are equal.

Obviously the average driver isn't going to put 35,000 miles a year on their car so the resale price of a leaf has to be considerably less when the battery degrades.

Big battery cost all at once = low resale value
Big battery cost spread out by a $100 / month lease = low resale value

I really don't see how anyone thinks that a battery replacement lease makes a used Leaf more attractive.

I also don't see the lease as any more attractive than a single payment battery replacement charge.

Most will run from this car except the EV purist because either way in 10 years you end up with a car that either needs an $18,000 replacement part or a $100 monthly bill, not to mention the fact that it's still a car with limited range. Hopefully the battery holds up and ages well otherwise this could end up being a very expensive failure for both Nissan and the American tax payers.

 

[Stoaty]

If the price of a new battery is indeed $18,000 then the resale value of these cars at 60,000 to 80,000 miles will be close to the scrap value of the metals.

No, because you can buy a used Leaf, pay $100 per month and get a new battery which will be kept at 9 bars or above. Over a period of 8 years that is $9600.

And why do you think that would prop up the value of a used leaf?

I only said that the $100 per month battery lease would prop up the value of a used leaf better than an $18,000 purchase for a new battery.

 

[TonyWilliams]

You guys all have overlooked that the LEAF is built in a multi-model assembly line, and the other cars are selling well with high margins. They "have" to build LEAFs to comply with the $1.6 BILLION dollar loan from Uncle Sam.

So, they coast along with a new LEAF built every 15 minutes. Yes, there may be numerous supply issues, quality control, etc. But, if this were one of the models that sells in the hundreds of thousands AT HIGH PROFIT MARGINS, those problems would be fixed overnight.

The LEAF is still a turd for Nissan (financially). Yes, they get those wonderful government loans for cheap (to build high profit oil burning cars with an occasional LEAF thrown in), they get $7500 tax credits per leased LEAF, sell CARB-ZEV credits per LEAF sold or leased, and get a lot of "earned media" for their green car.

Selling too many too soon puts Nisaan at the 200,000 unit cap where the $7500 federal credit goes away. Surely, they don't want to be in a position where strictly CARB compliance companies (everybody but Tesla, Nisaan, Mitsubishi and BMW) get the credit and Nisaan doesn't.

But, they are still an oil burning car company that makes tons of money. Folks inside Nissan itself are torn over the car; will it fail and cost the company $$$$$, or be a huge success as the price, density, and capacity of batteries improve?

They realized (wisely) that the Infiniti was a slow train wreck, and mercifully cancelled that one. When a new battery comes out in "18 months" for the 2015 model, their no doubt will be an improved LEAF and Infinti ready to watch the rolled out of Tesla Gen 3 another two years later.

If there was no Tesla, we would have had a mediocre Infiniti "LEAF".

 

[cgaydos]

You guys all have overlooked that the LEAF is built in a multi-model assembly line, and the other cars are selling well with high margins. They "have" to build LEAFs to comply with the $1.6 BILLION dollar loan from Uncle Sam.

So, they coast along with a new LEAF built every 15 minutes. Yes, there may be numerous supply issues, quality control, etc. But, if this were one of the models that sells in the hundreds of thousands AT HIGH PROFIT MARGINS, those problems would be fixed overnight.

The LEAF is still a turd for Nissan (financially). Yes, they get those wonderful government loans for cheap (to build high profit oil burning cars with an occasional LEAF thrown in), they get $7500 tax credits per leased LEAF, sell CARB-ZEV credits per LEAF sold or leased, and get a lot of "earned media" for their green car.

Selling too many too soon puts Nisaan at the 200,000 unit cap where the $7500 federal credit goes away. Surely, they don't want to be in a position where strictly CARB compliance companies (everybody but Tesla, Nisaan, Mitsubishi and BMW) get the credit and Nisaan doesn't.

But, they are still an oil burning car company that makes tons of money. Folks inside Nissan itself are torn over the car; will it fail and cost the company $$$$$, or be a huge success as the price, density, and capacity of batteries improve?

They realized (wisely) that the Infiniti was a slow train wreck, and mercifully cancelled that one. When a new battery comes out in "18 months" for the 2015 model, their no doubt will be an improved LEAF and Infinti ready to watch the rolled out of Tesla Gen 3 another two years later.

If there was no Tesla, we would have had a mediocre Infiniti "LEAF".

This is a very good point, and one I hadn't thought of before. There was a similar situation with the phase out of the hybrid tax credits - I think it was after 60k units per manufacturer. But those credits were a lot lower and by the time Toyota hit the limit (the phase-out began in the first half of 2007, IIRC, about 8 years after they launched the Prius) they had a) established a solid reputation for the Prius and all their other hybrids, b) captured the gorilla share of the market, and c) gained such manufacturing efficiencies that the $2k or so advantage other manufacturers still had was offset by Toyota's other advantages.

But with EVs they are staring at a much bigger credit, $7500, with a similar phase out period. This is great for boosting initial sales but will make it almost impossible to compete in the EV space once the tax credit is phased out. If you are Nissan LEAF marketing you probably already have a chart showing optimal sales over time that balances the need to be market leader with the need to keep the $7500 available as long as possible - at least until government lobbying can adjust the credit phase-out to Nissan's benefit. I'll bet Tesla has a similar chart. Something like 25k units/year is probably a good target for Nissan right now.

I'm not sure if this is influencing Nissan's decision to withhold providing a parts price for a battery replacement, but it was probably part of the discussion.

 

[surfingslovak]

I'm not sure if this is influencing Nissan's decision to withhold providing a parts price for a battery replacement, but it was probably part of the discussion.

Although these considerations are likely part of the bigger picture, it would be good not to collude and confuse two separate issues. I think the price of the battery is just that, and although the manufacturing volume plays into it, the hesitation to provide a replacement price tag for this part likely has other motivations

 

[gbarry42]

Wait, this was the car that was going to save Nissan. Something seems to have saved them. Probably having Carlos G. run the company. He's the one behind the LEAF, and the only one I whose word I take seriously ('course, he hasn't said much about it).

I do think, they think the battery price is scary. I think they believed the could come up with an answer if given enough time (end of Spring). That didn't work out. But the scary price argument doesn't follow. I've written about this before. If the battery price is too high, then we'd want to consider the lease plan. It's OK to let us decide which we like. As for the PR disaster, don't they have one already? Haven't they demonstrated that pretending there's no problem works for them? They can just ignore this, too.

Another thing I've mentioned: I'm going on record predicting the "around $100 per month with details to follow sometime this year" will end up being $129 a month, announced 31 December.

 

[KJD]

I talked to a auto salvage yard today and he said that LEAF battery packs go for about $6500. and they go pretty fast at that price. Hmmm wonder why ?

Seems like Nissan could sell new ones for that price and make a nice tidy profit on each sale.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Which begs the question; has anyone done so or known someone who has bought one? They seem to be pretty rare at any price

 

[thankyouOB]

Most will run from this car except the EV purist because either way in 10 years you end up with a car that either needs an $18,000 replacement part or a $100 monthly bill, not to mention the fact that it's still a car with limited range. Hopefully the battery holds up and ages well otherwise this could end up being a very expensive failure for both Nissan and the American tax payers.

This post confuses me. why did you buy it?

 

[TomT]

Unless it actually costs them more than that...

I talked to a auto salvage yard today and he said that LEAF battery packs go for about $6500. and they go pretty fast at that price. Hmmm wonder why ? Seems like Nissan could sell new ones for that price and make a nice tidy profit on each sale.

 

[mwalsh]

Unless it actually costs them more than that...

I talked to a auto salvage yard today and he said that LEAF battery packs go for about $6500. and they go pretty fast at that price. Hmmm wonder why ? Seems like Nissan could sell new ones for that price and make a nice tidy profit on each sale.

My experience with used auto parts is that prices are all over the place. Some (maybe most) dismantlers charge ~50% of the retail cost of new parts. But there are some rip-off places who think they can get away with charging almost the full retail price of a new part. And that's assuming they even know what the part costs new - $6500 could have just been what they hit with a dart thrown at the part pricing dartboard! None of which really gets us any closer to the new part of a pack, I know. But it needed saying.

 

[OPECsux]

Most will run from this car except the EV purist because either way in 10 years you end up with a car that either needs an $18,000 replacement part or a $100 monthly bill, not to mention the fact that it's still a car with limited range. Hopefully the battery holds up and ages well otherwise this could end up being a very expensive failure for both Nissan and the American tax payers.

This post confuses me. why did you buy it?

I leased it, and in 3 years, 9 months good luck to Nissan trying to sell it. BTW I leased it cause there's no better car to own when your broke and 4 days away from your next paycheck.

 

[OttoH]

In my opinion the $18k price for the LEAF battery and the $36k price for the RAV4 battery are just numbers pulled out of somebody's behind.

However, to get any kind of idea about the real price a good starting point will be to determine the cost of the raw materials that goes into these batteries. Does anybody have any idea about that?