TSLA corporate outlook

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If you bought using this program up till ~2 weeks a go, your S/X is still covered.

Well, at least as long as TSLA and Musk's cash holds out...

Tesla quietly kills guarantee of Model S resale value

Tesla Motors Inc. quietly discontinued its resale value guarantee program as of July 1, the electric-car maker confirmed Wednesday...

The program was available to those who financed their Model S through Tesla official financing partners and programs. It guaranteed that Tesla would buy back the car at a minimum preset value after three years and at preset terms, in some cases at least 50% of the car’s base price.

It was first offered in April 2013, largely to assuage early-adopter fears and ensure those first buyers that their Model S, Tesla’s first electric car designed and built in-house, would hold value in case sales later tanked or other problems arose. The program allowed buyers to sell their cars back to Tesla at the guaranteed price between 36 and 39 months after purchase, so the first cars sold under the program are now available to be sold back to the car maker.

Buying a Model S through Tesla-backed financing would guarantee that the car’s resale value would be higher than the resale value of other luxury cars and the program was “personally backed” by Tesla’s Chief Executive Elon Musk, Tesla said then...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-quietly-kills-guarantee-of-model-s-resale-value-2016-07-13
 
edatoakrun said:
If you bought using this program up till ~2 weeks a go, your S/X is still covered.

Well, at least as long as TSLA and Musk's cash holds out...

Tesla quietly kills guarantee of Model S resale value

Tesla Motors Inc. quietly discontinued its resale value guarantee program as of July 1, the electric-car maker confirmed Wednesday...
<snip>
It did serve to give early adopters confidence, but I think the need for this has passed, as the car's resale value has held up just fine.
 
It was less about convincing customers and more about convincing banks to loan money for the purchase/lease. Now that a track record has been established the banks can have some confidence in the resale value.
 
Master plan, part 2:

https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux?redirect=no

Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
No real surprises?

But it does sound like an admission that TSLA's market trickle-down will end with the 3...

...A lower cost vehicle than the model 3 is unlikely to be necessary...
 
edatoakrun said:
Master plan, part 2:

https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux?redirect=no

Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
No real surprises?

But it does sound like an admission that TSLA's market trickle-down will end with the 3...

...A lower cost vehicle than the model 3 is unlikely to be necessary...

Given that the Model III is targeted at the entry-level BMWs, I don't think going any lower is vital to their survival as a company. They seem set on remaining a premium brand, and that's ok.

On a personal note, the segment I am most interested is sporty coupes. But that probably doesn't qualify as a "major" segment - it has always been small, and has been shrinking for almost two decades.

As far as the EV market is concerned, though, lower-priced EVs are going to be critical to reaching large market penetration. To me, this means shorter range but lower cost EVs are likely going to stick around for a while.
 
I'm happy with Tesla's decision to avoid moving further downmarket, given the likelihood of a sustained downtrend in the overall number of new passenger vehicles sold due to autonomy and sharing. With higher average vehicle utilization, it can be economical for even low-income citizens to ride in $35,000+ vehicles. Even in rural areas, there's potential for sharing to significantly decrease the burden associated with passenger car ownership.

In the near term, it would be nice to have more economical, long-range EVs (maybe $20K), but battery technology isn't quite there yet. Even if it were, why should a newcomer like Tesla attempt to address this segment of the market if it's ultimately not going to be as sustainable (business wise)?

Further, the used vehicle market is actually much larger than the new vehicle market. Assuming the longevity of Tesla battery packs generally continues to be good, a typical Model 3 car should pass through multiple owners on the used market. These buyers generally won't be paying $35K.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
...Given that the Model III is targeted at the entry-level BMWs, I don't think going any lower is vital to their survival as a company. They seem set on remaining a premium brand, and that's ok...
Well, if you feel it's OK that TSLA has abandoned so much, and accomplished so little, of its 2016 master plan...
So, in short, the master plan is:
Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car

While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me

Perhaps more important to those who TSLA will soon be asking for more cash to pay for part two, is that what TSLA also seems to be abandoning, is any hope for profitability, for many years to come.
Musk's new Tesla 'master plan' comes with big price tag

..."It's beyond us how much fundraising Tesla will need to carry out this master plan," Barclays Capital analyst Brian Johnson wrote in a note to clients.

Standard & Poors Thursday cut its rating on Tesla to "sell" from "hold" saying "while we think Tesla's new master plan may build a long-term technological monument, we think it will create a short-term cash flow sink hole."...
http://www.autonews.com/article/20160721/OEM05/160729955/musks-new-tesla-master-plan-comes-with-big-price-tag

Tesla's 'Master Plan' Is All Promise, No Product

...From solar panels and energy storage to robo-taxis and semis, Musk's vision for Tesla conjures up a world so enthrallingly futuristic that it's hard not to get carried away by it. Many of his ideas are good ones, and countless companies are sinking billions into realizing them. But coming from a company that is struggling to meet the auto industry's quality standards -- not to mention its own price and production targets -- even at small volumes and high prices, these sweeping ambitions come across as intellectual curiosity and sheer hubris...
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-21/tesla-s-master-plan-is-all-promise-no-product
 
edatoakrun said:
GetOffYourGas said:
...Given that the Model III is targeted at the entry-level BMWs, I don't think going any lower is vital to their survival as a company. They seem set on remaining a premium brand, and that's ok...
Well, if you feel it's OK that TSLA has abandoned so much, and accomplished so little, of its 2016 master plan...
So, in short, the master plan is:
Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car

While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me

Well that is your opinion. In my opinion, going from a >$100k roadster to a $67k Model S to a $35k model III IS accomplishing the bulk of the master plan. Whether they abandoned the renewable energy part is debatable at best. Sure seems they are working on it. But they never said they were going to compete with the likes of a Honda Civic.

As for the cost of part two, it depends on how aggressively they pursue it. Knowing Musk though, they will probably push for it too soon rather than let the Model III profits bring the company into the black.

I think they could survive as a premium car company, meet all stated goals, and remain a viable company into the future. But "could" and "will" are two different things.
 
I hope that once Solar City is absorbed/merged with Tesla, they begin offering separate components, instead of just complete installations. All I really want is a good quality grid-tied inverter with an integrated Powerwall, and I'd plunk down the money tomorrow, and install it myself. I see several other companies are beginning to offer Li-ion 24 volt and 48 volt packs, with BMS, to use in place of wet cell batteries, but I'd prefer a factory integrated solution, especially if it has Tesla batteries.
 
Any true believers out there?

Tesla's Musk sees 'modest' capital raise for next strategic turn

...Last week he unveiled an ambitious plan to expand the company into electric trucks and buses, as well as car sharing.

On Tuesday, Musk said because the plan will roll out over a number of years, it could be mostly funded from sales of vehicles, particularly the Model 3 sedan due to launch in 2017.

While some analysts have questioned how profitable the Model 3 will be, Musk on Tuesday said he expects the car to generate $20 billion in revenue per year and $5 billion in gross profit once it is up to full production of about 500,000 vehicles a year...

On Tuesday, Musk turned his attention to the $5 billion battery plant being developed with Japan's Panasonic Corp (6752.T).

Musk said the factory could ultimately support 1.5 million electric vehicles a year and he was confident the partners could eventually lower battery costs to $100 per kilowatt-hour by 2020...
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-gigafactory-idUKKCN1062SR
One guess of Musk's modest demand for new capital required to maintain TSLA operations next year:

Elon Musk's Tesla Ambitions Keep Growing -- And So Does The Price Tag

... Since 2008, Tesla has generated about $2 billion in free cash flow (including about $500 million in zero-emission vehicle credits sold to other automakers). Yet it has spent some $6.2 billion on R&D and capital expenditures, leaving what Barclays analyst Brian A. Johnson describes as “a $4.2 billion hole.” Luckily, as he notes, Wall Street has been happy to fill the gap – and will likely be asked to provide more. Johnson expects Tesla to have to raise another $1.7 billion in 2017.

Some hints might come Aug. 3, when Tesla releases its 2Q financial results.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2016/07/27/elon-musks-tesla-ambitions-keep-growing-and-so-does-the-price-tag/#7a5962cb7081
 
Maybe the big party TSLA is throwing in the Nevada desert should be called the Burning Cash Festival...

Tesla Motors Inc. is scheduled to report results after the bell Wednesday.

Tesla TSLA, +0.93% has weathered a string of bad news around an investigation into what role its Autopilot, a suite of driver-assistance features, has played in at least one fatal accident, and criticism of its proposed deal to buy solar installer SolarCity Corp. SCTY, -1.75%

Add to that the long-term “master plan” that Chief Executive Elon Musk put out last week, and Tesla’s second-quarter results and subsequent analyst call have all the makings of a much-anticipated Wall Street pageant.

Here’s what to expect:

Earnings: Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of 54 cents a share in the second quarter, which would be wider than a loss of 48 cents a share in the year-ago period...

Other issues: Tesla’s “Master Plan, Part Deux” blog post was as short as the company’s goals were lofty, and analysts are sure to demand more specifics, especially since the plan likely means a dearth of profits for Tesla for the foreseeable future and a continuation of the cash burn.

In the plan, Tesla announced its intent to offer new car bodies, such as a small SUV and a pickup truck, and its intention to get into trucking, leaving no stone unturned regarding modes of transportation.

This week, Tesla will celebrate the grand opening of its battery plant outside Reno, Nev...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-to-expect-from-tesla-earnings-2016-07-28
 
edatoakrun said:
Maybe the big party TSLA is throwing in the Nevada desert should be called the Burning Cash Festival...

Tesla Motors Inc. is scheduled to report results after the bell Wednesday.

<snip>

Here’s what to expect: <snip>

In the plan, Tesla announced its intent to offer new car bodies, such as a small SUV and a pickup truck, and its intention to get into trucking, leaving no stone unturned regarding modes of transportation. . . .
Re some of the above, the small CUV and pickup shouldn't be too difficult, if they build them on the Model 3 and Model S/X platforms, respectively, and restrain themselves. The pickup will need a much bigger battery pack to be viable, though. The tractor's going to be the killer.
 
Via GCC:
Tesla acquiring SolarCity in $2.6B all-stock deal; expected close of transaction in Q4
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/08/20160801-tesla.html

Tesla and SolarCity reached agreement for the automaker’s purchase of the solar company in an all-stock deal valued at $2.6 billion—slightly less than the original $2.8-billion proposal made by Tesla just over a month ago. (Earlier post.) SolarCity will operate as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tesla.

The all-stock transaction is valued based on the 5-day volume-weighted average price of Tesla shares as of 29 July 2016. Under the agreement, SolarCity stockholders will receive 0.110 Tesla common shares per SolarCity share, valuing SolarCity common stock at $25.37 per share based on the 5-day volume weighted average price of Tesla shares as of 29 July2016. The original proposal was an exchange ratio of 0.122x to 0.131x shares of Tesla common stock for each share of SolarCity common stock. . . .

. . . The deal must be approved by a majority of the disinterested shareholders of both Tesla and SolarCity voting at each shareholder meeting. It also needs to obtain regulatory approval and meet other closing conditions.
 
edatoakrun said:
Maybe the big party TSLA is throwing in the Nevada desert should be called the Burning Cash Festival...

Tesla Motors Inc. is scheduled to report results after the bell Wednesday.

...Here’s what to expect:

Earnings: Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of 54 cents a share in the second quarter, which would be wider than a loss of 48 cents a share in the year-ago period... ...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-to-expect-from-tesla-earnings-2016-07-28
The disastrous reality:

Tesla Loses $293 Million as Deliveries Fall Short, Expenses Rise

...A second-quarter loss of $293 million was 60% deeper compared with a year ago. Its operating loss equaled $1.06 a share, greater than the 52-cent loss analysts had been expecting...
http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-loses-293-million-as-deliveries-fall-short-expenses-rise-1470256400

The delusion of Elon Musk:

Elon Musk: Tesla is not really a ‘money-losing business’

...After a drawn-out discussion of all of Tesla’s growth initiatives and their prospective value propositions, Musk busted out the money line, literally.

“When all of that’s lumped together, (it) can be confusing. And then they would think Tesla’s a money-losing company but, well, not really. Not if you’re growing at like 100% a year,” Musk said.

...Actually, Tesla is a money-losing business, really, in the fact that it brings in much less money than it spends and appears to be on that same path for the foreseeable future. It has never turned an annual profit by generally accepted accounting practices, and lost nearly $900 million by that standard last year. Even with Tesla’s adjustments to earnings, the company lost $224.8 million in the first six months of this year...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-is-not-really-a-money-losing-business-2016-08-03

Last year Tesla was valued at over 50 times 2016 projected earnings of over $5 a share.

And now that all those projected earnings have gone to the great solar powered battery swap station network in the sky, to be replaced by another huge annual loss... TSLA is still trading for ~$230 a share?
Wall Street's Weird Disconnect With Tesla

...Analysts' consensus forecast for Tesla's earnings per share in 2016 finally slipped into the red this week. A few cuts in the wake of Wednesday's second-quarter results took the estimate from a profit of about 23 cents to a loss of about 65 cents, according to forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Go back 18 months, and the consensus was $5.49.

If history is any guide, the cuts haven't gone far enough yet...

http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-08-05/tesla-stock-price-wall-street-s-weird-disconnect
 
keydiver said:
edatoakrun said:
Any true believers out there?

Yes, yes there are. Driving is believing. I can't wait to drive to Key West tomorrow.

Here as well. I'm a shareholder as well as a reservation holder for Model 3. There are a few haters, but they are outnumbered by the believers. I do appreciate reading the doom and gloom posts as it does force me to re-evaluate my position as a shareholder and reservation holder, but as of now I'm still a believer.
 
palmermd said:
I'm a shareholder as well as a reservation holder for Model 3.
Likewise. I figure if my TSLA stock were to become worthless and my M3 deposit were to disappear, we'd still be just fine. Elon's level of risk tolerance is well above what most of us are accustomed to, but the energy and transportation problems they're attacking require bold action. Tesla continues to make a huge difference in the world, with influence far beyond the relatively small number of Model S/X vehicles sold. It's easy to forgive Tesla's mistakes when we see all of the good that they are doing.
 
Via GCR:
Reactions to Tesla 100D versions less than ecstatic: here's why
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1105727_reactions-to-tesla-100d-versions-less-than-ecstatic-heres-why

. . . Even some usually supportive analysts and outlets questioned the importance, relevance, and focus of the new 100D versions . . . The general sentiment, in fact, might best be summed by some very old advice: "Stick to your knitting."

In other words, a third round of even-faster-than-before performance versions with six-figure price tags does nothing to move along the car that will likely make or break Tesla Motors: its $35,000, 200-mile Model 3. Tesla explicitly connected those dots in its announcement, noting that, "While the P100D Ludicrous is obviously an expensive vehicle, we want to emphasize that every sale helps pay for the smaller and much more affordable Tesla Model 3 that is in development."

"Without customers willing to buy the expensive Model S and X," the company continued, "we would be unable to fund the smaller, more affordable Model 3 development."

“A clear and realistic path to profitability and sustainability should be Elon’s first priority," said senior [Kelley Blue Book] analyst Karl Brauer. "This is a distraction and a waste of time and resources.”

“This recent announcement from Tesla is eye-opening," said analyst Mike Harley, his colleague, "but nothing more than headline-grabbing showmanship". . . .

Many suggested that if the company doesn't raise additional funds—perhaps as much as $1 billion, well beyond any incremental sales boost provided by the 100D versions—the pair of new versions won't matter much. . . .

Also, completely under the radar (no pun intended), Tesla boosted the price for Autopilot by $500 to $3k.
 
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