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evnow said:
GRA said:
If the Model X doesn't come out until 2017, Tesla will be dead and buried. They have to get it out this year; unlike the Model S, they already have two roughly comparable luxury plug-in CUV/SUV competitors (Porsche and Volvo) plus a down-market one (Mitsubishi), with more on the way.
If PHEVs are competition, then Model S has a lot of competition ... like ELR. Wait ... do you work for GM ?!
The ELR is no competition for the Model S (or anything else, at that ridiculous price). I've said before that the Panamera is the closest thing to a competitor the Model S currently has, but I have no doubt that the Cayenne will continue to cannibalize sales from it. And no, I don't work for GM or any other auto company, nor do I own stock in (AFAIK; could be some in mutual funds) or have any emotional investment in any auto or related company.
 
DNAinaGoodWay said:
ILETRIC said:
Maybe GM will get ahead of Tesla for once with their 200-mile offering...

Yah, the next couple of years should be pretty interesting. Who's going to come out with an affordable longer range car first?

That's why I love competition!
My bet is on Nissan, with GM as a second guess.
BMW could be a surprise though. They had a nice first attempt with the i3, and if they set their mind to it, it is a remote possibility they could get their first.

I'd put Tesla's odds at being first with a 150+ mile, sub $40,000 car at 20%.
 
Zythryn said:
DNAinaGoodWay said:
ILETRIC said:
Maybe GM will get ahead of Tesla for once with their 200-mile offering...

Yah, the next couple of years should be pretty interesting. Who's going to come out with an affordable longer range car first?

That's why I love competition!
My bet is on Nissan, with GM as a second guess.
BMW could be a surprise though. They had a nice first attempt with the i3, and if they set their mind to it, it is a remote possibility they could get their first.

I'd put Tesla's odds at being first with a 150+ mile, sub $40,000 car at 20%.

I think Nissan as well, mainly because they have the manufacturing chops, and everyone will be getting the battery tech. But Tesla's will probably be more useful due to more reliably available DC charging. But I don't think that will matter hugely. An affordable 200 mile range Leaf-sized vehicle would be all the car most people need. You could rent a car for road trips.
 
I would prefer it if Tesla could surprise us with the 3 by mid '17. If I had a 48 kWh pack, access to 120 kW SCs would be a big selling point.

But they seem to be using a lot of engineering talent redesigning the S, Roadster upgrades, and the X black hole.
 
GRA said:
If the Model X doesn't come out until 2017, Tesla will be dead and buried.
While it would be a setback, I doubt that it would kill the company. And that much further delay strikes me as unlikely anyway. I guess we will know soon.
They have to get it out this year; unlike the Model S, they already have two roughly comparable luxury plug-in CUV/SUV competitors (Porsche and Volvo) plus a down-market one (Mitsubishi), with more on the way.
I am utterly baffled as to why you think those will be Model X competition. Will they be generally available EVERYWHERE? Or just in California like almost every other EV? And why would a PHEV be competition with the Model X? If people want to burn gas there are a large number of SUV/CUVs, including some luxury models, to choose from.

Even in states that don't allow the direct sale of Teslas, due to the dealer lobby ownership of legislators, they can be purchased online and serviced adequately by Tesla. But the Porsches and Volvos?

Sorry, I don't buy the notion that California is the whole country.
 
dgpcolorado said:
GRA said:
They have to get it out this year; unlike the Model S, they already have two roughly comparable luxury plug-in CUV/SUV competitors (Porsche and Volvo) plus a down-market one (Mitsubishi), with more on the way.
I am utterly baffled as to why you think those will be Model X competition. Will they be generally available EVERYWHERE? Or just in California like almost every other EV? And why would a PHEV be competition with the Model X? If people want to burn gas there are a large number of SUV/CUVs, including some luxury models, to choose from.

Even in states that don't allow the direct sale of Teslas, due to the dealer lobby ownership of legislators, they can be purchased online and serviced adequately by Tesla. But the Porsches and Volvos?

Sorry, I don't buy the notion that California is the whole country.
Here's why I think the PHEV CUVs will be competition (although less so with current gas prices) for the Model X. People who are capable of buying one of these essentially don't have to consider cost effectiveness, so whether one or the other has lower operating costs is effectively irrelevant (not to say that some people won't make a decision based on that, but it's not a particularly rational one). But unlike the case with the Model S, most people who are looking at an SUV/CUV place a high value on the letter 'U' of the acronym, and given the current lack of SC infrastructure, range decrease in cold weather and inability to carry loads on the roof (as well as the higher base price), the Model X trails a PHEV in all these areas.

There will undoubtedly be a group who will go all slack-jawed and turn into drooling idiots at a (guesstimated) sub-4 second 0-60 time for the P85 version of the Model X, but I suspect there's a considerable group that will recognize that the difference between say 3.9 seconds of the X P85 and the 5.4 seconds of the Cayenne is meaningless except for stoplight drag races. And then there are the people with high level incomes who live in condos or townhouses without any way to L2 charge at home.

As to where they will be available, with CA taking over 40% of all PEV sales and the CARB states making up most of the rest, whether or not these vehicles are available nationwide is not going to put a significant crimp in their sales.

If you were to give me a choice between an X (base model 85) and the Cayenne, at the moment I'd opt for the Cayenne (size is better for me too, but that's not likely to be a factor for potential buyers). Depending on its pricing, I might well opt for the Volvo over the Porsche. Give the SC infrastructure several more years of deployment and the value might change for me (although not unless they put conventional doors on it). Of course, I base car buying decisions to a much greater extent on rational instead of emotional factors than most car buyers (anyone buying a car at these price levels has a large emotional factor driving them), so I could well be wrong. We'll see. Both the Outlander and the Volvo have been selling like gangbusters in Europe.
 
You're missing the big point about a partial EV: the Model X is going to grossly out-accelerate any other gas or partially gas powered SUV out on the market, period. The Tesla AWD system is light-years ahead of any other AWD system by leaps and bounds (0-60 in 3.3 seconds in the rain on the P85D...). Electric is hands-down superior on this front, especially with a big heavy car like a luxury SUV. The model X has absolutely no competition unless an automaker has kept a project completely under wraps and is close to launch.
 
eloder said:
You're missing the big point about a partial EV: the Model X is going to grossly out-accelerate any other gas or partially gas powered SUV out on the market, period. The Tesla AWD system is light-years ahead of any other AWD system by leaps and bounds (0-60 in 3.3 seconds in the rain on the P85D...). Electric is hands-down superior on this front, especially with a big heavy car like a luxury SUV. The model X has absolutely no competition unless an automaker has kept a project completely under wraps and is close to launch.
I'm not missing it, I just think it's a practical irrelevance (I care far more about 30-50 and 50-70 passing times, where the cars should be much closer together, but either will be ample), and far less important to many SUV/CUV customers than the ability to go anywhere they want without planning it ahead of time, in winter, while carrying whatever gear they want on the roof. YMMV.
 
Tesla Gigafactory To Manufacture Batteries By 2016 (According to this analyst.)

giga.jpg
 
I do wonder if the Tesla battery factory is going to be the piece that puts them ahead of everyone else, or a weight to drag them down if it turns out battery tech will be cheaper and more flexible to outsource...
(I think Nissan is wondering that too with their current factory..)

I'm also not sure about their accuracy on price projections and release dates for their model 3.

Pulling for them, but not sure..

desiv
 
GRA said:
If you were to give me a choice between an X (base model 85) and the Cayenne, at the moment I'd opt for the Cayenne (size is better for me too, but that's not likely to be a factor for potential buyers).
That is because you don't value the USP of X - it is a long range BEV SUV.

In fact you don't care whether you burn fossil fuels or not - that is why you still drive an ICE and we drive BEVs.
 
evnow said:
GRA said:
If you were to give me a choice between an X (base model 85) and the Cayenne, at the moment I'd opt for the Cayenne (size is better for me too, but that's not likely to be a factor for potential buyers).
That is because you don't value the USP of X - it is a long range BEV SUV.

In fact you don't care whether you burn fossil fuels or not - that is why you still drive an ICE and we drive BEVs.
Yeah, that must be why I've been commuting by bike and doing my errands on foot for the past 15 years, because I don't care whether I burn fossil fuels or not. :roll:
 
GRA said:
Yeah, that must be why I've been commuting by bike and doing my errands on foot for the past 15 years, because I don't care whether I burn fossil fuels or not. :roll:
My bad then, if that is what you do.

But repeatedly advocating that everyone else is better off with PHEV than BEV is weird - in a dedicated BEV forum.
 
desiv said:
I do wonder if the Tesla battery factory is going to be the piece that puts them ahead of everyone else, or a weight to drag them down if it turns out battery tech will be cheaper and more flexible to outsource...
(I think Nissan is wondering that too with their current factory..)

I'm also not sure about their accuracy on price projections and release dates for their model 3.

Pulling for them, but not sure..

desiv

At least Tesla will have battery production they plan to require.

Other car makers promise 200 mile cars, but they (and their suppliers) dont have (combined) battery factory capacity to build more EVs than Tesla...

And nobody except Tesla has any viable charging infrastructure for long distance travel.
 
Rebel44 said:
Other car makers promise 200 mile cars, but they (and their suppliers) dont have (combined) battery factory capacity to build more EVs than Tesla....
Not sure that's true.
The Nissan plant in Smyrna is running well under capacity, so turning it up should be pretty simple (just money.. ;-) )
That said, I think it might be more about battery chemistry / tech and it's possible that 3rd party manufacturers will be who others (including possibly Nissan) turn to..

It's also possible Nissan will "license" the tech and still produce the batteries in their plants...

Either way, I don't have any real concerns that needed battery capacity will be met by then.
But I can easily see Nissan licensing tech if needed. Tesla would probably be able to do the same too...

I just wonder about the economics, and whether either Nissan or Tesla will end up saving money making batteries...

Again, I hope it works out...
Maybe Nissan and others even start buying batteries from Tesla? ;-)

desiv
 
GM's battery supply is the most tenuous in my opinion.
They have stated the LG plant which is producing the Volt packs, and will be supplying the Bolt packs is capable of producing enough packs for 60,000 packs per year.
Expansion is certainly possible, however I have heard no planned announcements yet.

I suspect GM is playing it very cautious this time around. They have predicted sales of 10-15k annually. This indicates to me no plans for expansion until they see the sales.
 
It takes time to build capacity and to increase it.

But I think Tesla fans tend to overestimate the effort (and thus say Tesla will have no competitors). There are people in TMC arguing Apple can't build an EV because in 5 years (!) they won't be able to get the necessarily facilities built.

I also think in the US we are used to things happening slowly (rather slowly). Things happen much faster in China, Korea etc. I bet LG can quite quickly (say a year) increase capacity if they have customers asking for more.
 
evnow said:
GRA said:
Yeah, that must be why I've been commuting by bike and doing my errands on foot for the past 15 years, because I don't care whether I burn fossil fuels or not. :roll:
My bad then, if that is what you do.

But repeatedly advocating that everyone else is better off with PHEV than BEV is weird - in a dedicated BEV forum.
I've never said that 'everyone' else is better off, I've said that mainstream consumers are more likely to be willing to transition to PHEVs than BEVs and find the transition easier, given their respective current capabilities and prices. Once into a PHEV they can then easily move to a BEV once one meets their needs. I'd rather have an 80% solution now than wait for a 100% solution years from now, when BEVs/FCVs or what have you can be mainstream. A reasonably affordable 200 mile EPA BEV will be acceptable to quite a few mainstream customers, far more than an 80 mile BEV is, but the infrastructure needed to make BEVs the all-around choice to replace ICEs will be lacking for many years yet.

BTW, why do you think I was designing and selling off-grid AE systems more than two decades ago, if I wasn't concerned with getting off fossil fuels? Do you think I was doing it because I thought it was a good way to get rich? :lol:
 
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