Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[dgpcolorado]

...According to Tesla spokesman (I linked the LA article above) 3 is now supposed to cost $40k, not $35k.

Is it so difficult to see that $40k morph into $45k ? I don't think so.

Yes, I don't expect $50k - but $45k is still closer to $50k than $35k. Though, I hope it is $40k and not $45k...

As do I. If I make the assumption that, by the time the Model III gets to the affordable versions, the Federal rebate will be gone, that would be really hard to afford (not that I can qualify for most of the Federal rebate anyway). I will be helped by the $6000 Colorado refundable rebate, which doesn't begin to phase out until 2019.

It will be interesting to see how things shake out.

 

[evnow]

As do I. If I make the assumption that, by the time the Model III gets to the affordable versions, the Federal rebate will be gone, that would be really hard to afford (not that I can qualify for most of the Federal rebate anyway). I will be helped by the $6000 Colorado refundable rebate, which doesn't begin to phase out until 2019.

I expect both Nissan & Tesla to have finished their 200k (or close to finishing) by the time next gen comes along.

But, it is possible they'll manage to get the tax credit extended - afterall the current law is terrible as it doesn't encourage earlier EV sales and infact penalizes manufacturer who start first.

Interestingly, Infiniti will have all the 200k left ... so, I expect Infinti EV to be well positioned to compete with Model 3 - esp. given that Tesla can't afford to give attractive lease offers.

 

[GRA]

As do I. If I make the assumption that, by the time the Model III gets to the affordable versions, the Federal rebate will be gone, that would be really hard to afford (not that I can qualify for most of the Federal rebate anyway). I will be helped by the $6000 Colorado refundable rebate, which doesn't begin to phase out until 2019.

I expect both Nissan & Tesla to have finished their 200k (or close to finishing) by the time next gen comes along.

But, it is possible they'll manage to get the tax credit extended - afterall the current law is terrible as it doesn't encourage earlier EV sales and infact penalizes manufacturer who start first.

Interestingly, Infiniti will have all the 200k left ... so, I expect Infinti EV to be well positioned to compete with Model 3 - esp. given that Tesla can't afford to give attractive lease offers.

Wouldn't Infiniti count under Nissan's quota, just like GM or Fiat/Chrysler or FTM Toyota/Lexus/Scion? It's just a nameplate, isn't it?

 

[GRA]

Yeah, Anderman's numbers don't make sense. $50k for a loaded version I could see, but how in hell is a car that's smaller and lighter and can use a somewhat smaller battery (I'm assuming the same or slightly higher Cd, but lower A) going to cost more than a Model S 60 of the same range, even if it used the current battery?

S starts at $72k. What Anderman is saying is that 3 will start at $50k.

According to Tesla spokesman (I linked the LA article above) 3 is now supposed to cost $40k, not $35k.

Is it so difficult to see that $40k morph into $45k ? I don't think so.

Yes, I don't expect $50k - but $45k is still closer to $50k than $35k. Though, I hope it is $40k and not $45k.

Ofcourse, Anderman is a long time battery pessimist ...

I've seen a variety of price targets quoted by Tesla types from Elon on down over the past two years or so, from $30-40k, before or after subsidies, with or without inflation, etc. I don't see any way to get a Model 3 up to $80k; Tesla would be laughed at even harder than Cadillac was for the ELR's pricing. $50k at the top end, sure.

 

[evnow]

Wouldn't Infiniti count under Nissan's quota, just like GM or Fiat/Chrysler or FTM Toyota/Lexus/Scion? It's just a nameplate, isn't it?

I was thinking about it - not sure how it works. MB/Smart are in the same category - and EPA seems to put them together.

http://green.autoblog.com/2014/09/18/irs-plug-in-car-tax-credit-confusion/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

May be it depends on how the OEM wants EPA to look at them in terms of CAFE etc ..

 

[pkulak]

Yes, it depends on how one defines "bang for the buck". If it's just range and the Gen 2 LEAF is cheaper, I suppose that one could make the argument for the LEAF. But I disagree with that view. If the Model III isn't hugely more expensive, being Supercharger capable changes everything. A 150-200 mile LEAF is of little additional utility to me versus my current 70 mile LEAF. A Supercharger capable Model III has vastly greater utility and is of much greater interest.

That's really interesting that it's the opposite for me. I've often thought about how, if I got a Model S, it wouldn't be as useful as my Leaf unless I also bought the (currently non-existent) CHAdeMO adapter. Superchargers are only up and down I5, so any trip to the coast would require a very long L2 stop somewhere.

 

[dgpcolorado]

...so any trip to the coast would require a very long L2 stop somewhere.

Really? In a 200 mile range car? The coast isn't all that far from Portland and there is only about 1700 feet of elevation change. I suppose if you live on the east side of Portland and are heading down the coast it would require a bit of L2 charging to make the round trip.

 

[TomT]

Hmmm... Are you sure about that? My reading of the law is that Infiniti and Nissan are lumped together since they are both part of the same company...

Interestingly, Infiniti will have all the 200k left ... so, I expect Infinti EV to be well positioned to compete with Model 3 - esp. given that Tesla can't afford to give attractive lease offers.

 

[Boomer23]

Hmmm... Are you sure about that? My reading of the law is that Infiniti and Nissan are lumped together since they are both part of the same company...

Interestingly, Infiniti will have all the 200k left ... so, I expect Infinti EV to be well positioned to compete with Model 3 - esp. given that Tesla can't afford to give attractive lease offers.

That is correct, Tom. Same company: Nissan. Both part of the same 200k limit.

 

[pkulak]

...so any trip to the coast would require a very long L2 stop somewhere.

Really? In a 200 mile range car? The coast isn't all that far from Portland and there is only about 1700 feet of elevation change. I suppose if you live on the east side of Portland and are heading down the coast it would require a bit of L2 charging to make the round trip.

Well, Newport is about 120 miles away. There is a super charger along the route, but only about 30 miles from my house, so it's not terribly useful. I'd probably need about 50 miles somewhere, which is a couple hours on a 7.2 L2. Not that I'd be complaining if I could afford that much car, but there are some trips that the Leaf is better suited for than the Tesla.

And other coastal cities would be fine. Astoria would need no charging, and I could super charge in Eugene for anything south of there. It's really just that one area.

 

[evnow]

Hmmm... Are you sure about that? My reading of the law is that Infiniti and Nissan are lumped together since they are both part of the same company...

Interestingly, Infiniti will have all the 200k left ... so, I expect Infinti EV to be well positioned to compete with Model 3 - esp. given that Tesla can't afford to give attractive lease offers.

That is correct, Tom. Same company: Nissan. Both part of the same 200k limit.

I don't think it is that simple. It never is. Can you guys explain why you guys think this is so, even though Nissan and Infiniti are different registered companies in the US ?

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
AFAIK, Infiniti is merely a brand of Nissan Motor Corp, just like Datsun (which has been resurrected in certain markets) is and just like Lexus is of Toyota Motor Corp. and Acura is of Honda.

Before Infiniti even existed in Japan, the equivalent vehicles were sold in Japan as Nissan. Examples: Nissan Fuga == Infiniti M; Nissan Skyline == Infiniti G35.

The same goes w/Lexus. Before the Lexus brand existed in Japan, Lexuses were sold there as Toyotas. Examples: Toyota Harrier == Lexus RX. Lexus SC430 == Toyota Soarer. I've actually driven a Soarer briefly, on a closed slow track in Japan.

I see references at http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; to "manufactuer". Well, Nissan Motor Corp is that. Infiniti isn't. There are some Infinitis built in the same plants alongside Nissans, just as the same goes for Lexus and Toyota.

I'm quite certain that Infiniti and Nissan will be lumped together, for the purposes of the 200K.

 

[TonyWilliams]

...so any trip to the coast would require a very long L2 stop somewhere.

Really? In a 200 mile range car? The coast isn't all that far from Portland and there is only about 1700 feet of elevation change. I suppose if you live on the east side of Portland and are heading down the coast it would require a bit of L2 charging to make the round trip.

Well, Newport is about 120 miles away. There is a super charger along the route, but only about 30 miles from my house, so it's not terribly useful. I'd probably need about 50 miles somewhere, which is a couple hours on a 7.2 L2. Not that I'd be complaining if I could afford that much car, but there are some trips that the Leaf is better suited for than the Tesla.

And other coastal cities would be fine. Astoria would need no charging, and I could super charge in Eugene for anything south of there. It's really just that one area.

If you're counting on CHAdeMO as the big advantage for the LEAF, Tesla now has their CHAdeMO adaptor in the hands of Japanese customers.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Well, Newport is about 120 miles away. There is a super charger along the route, but only about 30 miles from my house, so it's not terribly useful. I'd probably need about 50 miles somewhere, which is a couple hours on a 7.2 L2. Not that I'd be complaining if I could afford that much car, but there are some trips that the Leaf is better suited for than the Tesla.

And other coastal cities would be fine. Astoria would need no charging, and I could super charge in Eugene for anything south of there. It's really just that one area.

That Supercharger 30 miles away might well be useful on the return trip. Then you only have to charge at L2 enough to be sure of making it back to the SC station.

Of course, with an adapter and the numerous Chademo stations in Oregon, the question might be moot. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla added a Supercharger station that would make coastal trips easier, once they get the initial network built out.

 

[evnow]

^^^
AFAIK, Infiniti is merely a brand of Nissan Motor Corp.

Looks like this is correct - after some digging around. Looks like Infiniti is just a division of Nissan - not a separate incorporated company as I had assumed. So, yes, they'll be subjected to the same 200k limit - if it stands.

 

[dhanson865]

How long until we can test drive both LEAF 2.0 and the Model 3 ?

Which one will give the most bang for the buck ?

Varies widely from person to person depending upon their needs...

Yes, it depends on how one defines "bang for the buck". If it's just range and the Gen 2 LEAF is cheaper, I suppose that one could make the argument for the LEAF. But I disagree with that view. If the Model III isn't hugely more expensive, being Supercharger capable changes everything. A 150-200 mile LEAF is of little additional utility to me versus my current 70 mile LEAF. A Supercharger capable Model III has vastly greater utility and is of much greater interest.

So, what does one want? A commuter car that can handle double the range of current commuter EVs (LEAF Gen 2)? Or "One Car to Rule Them All" that can handle long interstate trips (Model III). Assuming that the cars do show up with the ranges that we have been speculating about, the decision then comes down to price. Will the Model III be affordable compared to the Gen 2 LEAF? If the prices are close, it is no contest. (For me, at least.)

Supercharger is one piece but just as important is that Tesla is firmly in the active cooling camp. If you are L2 charging at 40a in the Arizona desert you'll want a fan blowing air across the battery pack or liquid coolant flowing around the battery pack to pull heat away from the batteries.

If the price is close enough any you are anywhere south enough that AC is more important to you than head the Tesla will get the nod.

Maybe the northern climates where heat is more important than AC will favor the Leaf?

I won't promise which I'll favor if any. Too many questions between now and then.

 

[mbender]

According to this IRS page on the $7500 tax credit, it "begins to phase out" at the 200,000 sold point (emphasis mine). Does anyone know precisely what this means? It seems to suggest that it will not drop right to zero, but rather diminish at some rate.

Of course, hopefully the 200,000 will be extended to 500,000, making the urgency of this question/answer even less than it already is.

 

[dgpcolorado]

[...So, yes, they'll be subjected to the same 200k limit - if it stands.

Do you really believe that the tax credit would be extended somehow? It seems very unlikely with the current Congress and considerably less likely with the next one. Surely the oil industry owns a lot more Congressmen than a handful of EV advocates plus Tesla and Nissan.

 

[GRA]

According to this IRS page on the $7500 tax credit, it "begins to phase out" at the 200,000 sold point (emphasis mine). Does anyone know precisely what this means? It seems to suggest that it will not drop right to zero, but rather diminish at some rate.

Of course, hopefully the 200,000 will be extended to 500,000, making the urgency of this question/answer even less than it already is.

Here you go:

Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D) Phase Out

The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

 

[evnow]

[...So, yes, they'll be subjected to the same 200k limit - if it stands.

Do you really believe that the tax credit would be extended somehow? It seems very unlikely with the current Congress and considerably less likely with the next one. Surely the oil industry owns a lot more Congressmen than a handful of EV advocates plus Tesla and Nissan.

Difficult to say - but Nissan, Tesla & GM can get it modified. I don't think it is a partisan issue and oil industry doesn't care (remember it was passed during Bush administration).