Wholesale value of the 2011 Leaf @Auction March 2018

[edatoakrun]

...The big question, though, is if Nissan has scored such a solid win with battery cost, why not add a TMS and be done with this rapid degradation issue?...

Because the cheaper battery costs are, the less sense it make to add the very high costs and lower overall efficiency that TMS battery cooling imposes.

$200 a kWh batteries will make battery cooling (as well as the PHEV/ICEV model) a much dicier alternative economic proposition, in comparison to BEVs.

Whether Nissan is really there today, at the ~$5,000 pack cost, or just close enough that they have decided to price the batteries at some future known cost level, this announcement, if it happens, will result in a major reduction in operating costs to all present and future LEAF owners.

 

[OrientExpress]

Whether Nissan is really there today, at the ~$5,000 pack cost, or just close enough that they have decided to price the batteries at some future known cost level, this announcement, if it happens, will result in a major reduction in operating costs to all present and future LEAF owners.

edatoakrun:

$5K is the retail cost of a refurbished pack with a core exchange, not for a brand new fresh of the assembly line pack COGS, which is still closer to $10K. Don't confuse the costs of a refurbished pack with the manufacturing costs of a new pack.

 

[edatoakrun]

Whether Nissan is really there today, at the ~$5,000 pack cost, or just close enough that they have decided to price the batteries at some future known cost level, this announcement, if it happens, will result in a major reduction in operating costs to all present and future LEAF owners.

edatoakrun:

$5K is the retail cost of a refurbished pack with a core exchange, not for a brand new fresh of the assembly line pack COGS, which is still closer to $10K. Don't confuse the costs of a refurbished pack with the manufacturing costs of a new pack.

I'm not.

However Nissan chooses to structure an exchange, core charge, etc. if that pack contains new batteries at OEM specs,, and can be had for approximately $5000, it represents a major reduction in battery costs to the consumer, something like $200 a kWh, unless Nissan has found buyers for the "degraded" batteries at a very good price.

I really had not expected this kWh price level for at least five, and probably more like 10 years. And that is why, until Nissan itself announces the details, I will remain skeptical.

 

[WetEV]

$5K is the retail cost of a refurbished pack with a core exchange, not for a brand new fresh of the assembly line pack COGS, which is still closer to $10K.

The conflicting statements on the price of a battery pack are... well, conflicting.

If "refurbished" means all new cells and recycled electrics, connectors, housing, wires, etc. then I'd have little problem with that. Also Nissan doesn't want to powering all the conversions, off grid power systems, etc. by selling to anyone below the market price. They would want to target the sales to the affected drivers. After all, a rock bottom minimum price for a replacement battery pack is an alternative to expanding the warranty.

If setting a high core value allows Nissan to minimize the sales for other purposes, and provide a rock bottom minimum price to owners with significant range loss, that seems like a good thing as well. Not to everyone, as those that want to build or upgrade conversions or off grid power systems will be bummed. But at least they can keep their Leaf running at a reasonable cost.

 

[thankyouOB]

i applaud all this speculation and say:

Chelsea and Hawk, please give/get us an installed battery price with exchange of core.

 

[JRP3]

That is unheard of pack level pricing, heck it's unheard of cell level pricing for EV modules. Why am I buying cells from China if I can get a complete pack from Nissan for half the price?

The primary reason remanufactured assemblies are cheaper than new ones is that the majority of its piece parts are ones that are recycled and refurbished. It is very easy to see how a new assembly that might have a retail price of $15K (which translates into COGS of about $10K) would have a remanufactured retail price of $5K. That would put the actual labor and replaced parts COGS in that assembly to be about $2.5K. The rest of the piece has already been made and amortized from its original use. Lastly all refurbished parts always require a core exchange. Without the core, the part would be significantly more expensive.

Initially I think that pack replacements will only be available through Nissan, but as more and more cars are on the road, that means more and more will be in wrecks where they will be deemed "totaled", so that 3rd party re-manufacturers will have access to cores that can be upgraded and sold on the open market. That is how the "hot rod" packs will start to appear.

One last note, when I refer to COGS, that is Cost Of Goods Sold, which is what a manufacturer establishes as the cost of a component or final assembly. COGS is lower that wholesale, and may actually be lower than the material costs for that item because of the internal accounting methods that the manufacturer and/or its supplier uses to derive the COGS.

I didn't realize this pricing was for a refurbished pack, which brings things more in line, but I still question the number. If new cells are used the $5K cost is still well below all known cell level pricing. If they are using used cells taken from other packs then there would need to be a good amount of labor involved in checking each cell's actual capacity and resistance values to make sure they all match up, or you're going to end up with reduced capacity from the get go with mismatched and out of balance cells. As for the core, if you have a severely degraded pack with limited capacity, those cells cannot go into another vehicle pack. Possibly they could be used in some other application, stationary backup supply for example, if capacity loss has stabilized. A lot of unknowns here.

 

[surfingslovak]

As for the core, if you have a severely degraded pack with limited capacity, those cells cannot go into another vehicle pack. Possibly they could be used in some other application, stationary backup supply for example, if capacity loss has stabilized. A lot of unknowns here.

Nissan has partnered with Sumitomo, and later with ABB as well, to find second-life applications for EOL battery packs. While I appreciate the information provided by several posters, and find the low price point plausible, I would take all of this with a grain of salt until it's been confirmed.

Remanufacturing of hybrid battery packs has been around for a while, and while it's possible, it reportedly has yielded mixed results. Apparently, one cannot always easily mix and match new and used cells. The process might require a certain degree of sophistication.

http://www.smartgridnews.com/artman/publish/Technologies_Storage/ABB-Nissan-to-explore-a-second-life-for-EV-batteries-energy-storage-4379.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[TonyWilliams]

Just learned that another SoCal LEAF was sold to CarMax with the same miles as mine, 25,000, and got $17k. I got $23k exactly two months ago at CarMax.

 

[surfingslovak]

AutoNation offered $16,500 to a friend of mine for a 2011 SL with 13,000 miles a week ago. I've heard that Nissan dealers can be a lot more generous if you are trading in for a 2012.

 

[mxp]

Just learned that another SoCal LEAF was sold to CarMax with the same miles as mine, 25,000, and got $17k. I got $23k exactly two months ago at CarMax.

Argh! Seriously, how low will it go? Sounds like FB stock. Lol!

At this rate, might as well keep the 2011 and drive it into the ground. If there was an aftermarket longer range battery, it might be worth keeping the car but I recall reading a discussion that this is not going to be possible due to the need of new software.

 

[OrientExpress]

As another data point, the price of a retail trade-in is determined by two things and two things only.

1. The physical condition of the car, if the car looks like it was used as a food fight prop from Animal House, it will be valued less than if it looks like it just rolled off the assembly line.

2. The negotiation skills of the person offering (selling) the car to the dealer. The Dealer knows what the wholesale auction value of a car is, that is his ceiling, and so his goal is to use his skills to buy your car for as much under that ceiling as possible. Part of the skill of negotiation is also timing. The Fall is a bad time to deal because it is model transition time when manufacturers give dealers incentives to move their existing inventory off. Dealers are less inclined to want a car that is identical to the new ones that they are trying to clear out. December is the best time to trade.

If someone trades (sells) a car to dealer for $16.5K that has a real value of $19~22K, then that dealer will simply flip it at auction and sell it for its real wholesale value and pocket $3~6K right there. Easy money. I get the sense that some LEAF owners may not be the best negotiators, and will leave money on the negotiation table.

 

[JRP3]

My friend did not trade in his vehicle at $16.5K, and is actively working to obtain a better price. His vehicle is in good to very good shape.

Wow! At some point one has to consider the value of a low mileage chassis sans battery. :? How much is a two year old conversion car with motor, controller, ac charger, power steering, and HVAC all integrated and ready to go?

Probably around $10-$14K for the level of components I'd expect in a LEAF and the fact that most of the work is done. Integrating an aftermarket pack might be tricky but certainly possible.

 

[DaveEV]

MOD NOTE: Flame-fest went here. Seriously guys? Keep it on-topic and keep the discussion civil.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

As another data point, the price of a retail trade-in is determined by two things and two things only.

Demand and Supply

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i still think that these low resale prices in playing right into the hands of the buyers. they are using our over reaction to the issues (note; i dont think we are concerned over nothing since there is a ton of misunderstanding and unexpected consequences of driving electric going here so not saying it aint happening...)

there is still a great debate on the price of a replacement pack and will the TN battery plant supposedly up and running right now (was Sept was it not?) the supply of packs should be trickling in any day now but i see smart DIY'ers driving off in an essentially new LEAF for a pretty good price

now, this is a bit off topic; but i am surprised and disappointed that Nissan has chosen to buy back affected LEAFs under a lemon law instead of replacing packs. the thought that Nissan would go this way crossed my mind but I had considered it the worst solution on a customer loyalty level. it is admitting defeat

I cant help but think this decision was made due to the over the top reaction of some of the most affected owners AND owners who were not affected at all.
it seems Nissan realized that if they started replacing packs in AZ they would also have to do the same with someone in CA who is pushing 20,000+ miles a year.

i will say in the supposedly unaffected Pacific Northwest, i am seeing 2-4% loss and that is GID count only. as far as actual driving range loss; dont know. never really knew what my original range was other than a guess. with the miles/Kwh meter being apparently greatly inaccurate, it is really hard to say.

this winter should open a lot of eyes. last winter the Centrailia commute was at probably 85% of the commute with heat, cold air, rain, etc. so we shall see

 

[OrientExpress]

Wholesale prices for the 2011 LEAF SL are holding steady from September. In this weeks reporting the only item of interest are that the majority of the cars offered up at auction in this report are "factory" cars. These cars are most likely ones that were doing duty in the "Ride and Drive" events. Otherwise there are no changes to the wholesale values of these cars when compared to normal depreciation curves, and annualized sales cycle timing. Retail value estimations seemed to have settled at about $25K, which is consistent with secondary resale reporting.

Summary: The 2011 Nissan LEAF SL resale value continues to perform well on the secondary market.

 

[edatoakrun]

Wholesale prices for the 2011 LEAF SL are holding steady from September. In this weeks reporting the only item of interest are that the majority of the cars offered up at auction in this report are "factory" cars. These cars are most likely ones that were doing duty in the "Ride and Drive" events. Otherwise there are no changes to the wholesale values of these cars when compared to normal depreciation curves, and annualized sales cycle timing. Retail value estimations seemed to have settled at about $25K, which is consistent with secondary resale reporting...

IMO, those prices probably won't stay there.

With some California buyers now apparently able to buy new 2012 "closeouts" at near $22k, after all dealer discounts and incentives, and buyers in other states able to get a new LEAF at ~25k or less (depending on local incentives, if any) I don't see how that $25k used LEAF retail price can hold up.

 

[Becky50]

Just read this topic for the first time. I want to thank Orient Express for the monthly updates on the auction and resale market. Fascinating info as to how the car selling business operates. Thanks again.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

a 250 mile scan of my neighborhood shows used 2011's running from $22,000-29,000 and mileage from 1,000 to 13,000.

cant believe anyone would buy a 2011 for 29,000 but... most are in the 24-25,000 range so pretty much the same.

now the attractive lease deals are still leases and I talk to people almost daily who are pretty dead set against leasing.

 

[radryan]

Thanks for the data Orient! Can you post SL 2012 data?