Wholesale value of the 2011 Leaf @Auction March 2018

[dhanson865]

let me put it this way, what thing in an ICE has the equivalent weight in determining the value of that kind of automobile, and how is it measured.

Mileage is the ice equivalent. You have 4 scenarios for ICE vs EV

1. ICE only, every single mile driven involved using that gasoline engine.

2. Hybrid it would be common for the gasoline engine to run about half as many miles as the car sees.

3 Plugin Hybrid, it varies based on size of battery and amount of wall charging and a dozen other variables but the gasoline engine is likely to be used half as many miles as the car sees all the way down to no use at all. These would be tougher to categorize.

4. BEV, no gasoline engine, miles only is practically irrelevant to the health of the power train, the bigger concern is temperatures exposed to, state of charge (time spent at/near 100%, time spent below 5%, number of charge cycles. A Leaf in Washington state charged all the time on L2 with 100,000 miles can easily be worth more to me than a Leaf in Arizona with 10,000 miles on it.

The further away from a pure gasoline engine you go the less significant the mileage is to determining the value of the vehicle.

You might say that mileage isn't a good metric to begin with but take a look at the valuation formulas and they all rely heavily on mileage.

 

[OrientExpress]

Here are the April 2014 dealer auction numbers for a 2011 LEAF SL. These numbers continue to track consistently with other 2011 cars in the LEAFs size class, with estimated retail pricing tracking closely with the 2014 residual forecasts made on the car by Nissan's leasing and financial arm back in 2011.

Depending on the condition of the car, expect to pay between $17.6K ~ $16.6K for a used 2011 LEAF SL, and trade-in values are currently hovering at about $12.6K ~ $13.7K. A private sale car should bring about $14K ~ $14.5K.

 

[JeremyW]

I don't see how a "average odometer" of 16,150 is anywhere near realistic. Even the "below average" vehicle at 24,225 is still low for a three year old car.

 

[OrientExpress]

These numbers are actuals, and are a accurate snapshot of 2011 LEAF values nationally.

Here are the sales details.

 

[Reddy]

I don't see how a "average odometer" of 16,150 is anywhere near realistic. Even the "below average" vehicle at 24,225 is still low for a three year old car.

I'm approaching 18,000 mi and on track for about 20,000 mi at the 3-yr mark. I think I am a "low mileage" driver, so I am guessing that a lot of these auction vehicles were rental, fleet or test vehicles that just sat around most of the time. I find it hard to believe that a member of the general public would lease a vehicle with a 12,000 mi/yr limit and then only drive 6000 mi/yr. That's one of my reasons for purchasing instead of leasing.

 

[TomT]

47,000 miles at 38 months here...

I don't see how a "average odometer" of 16,150 is anywhere near realistic.

 

[aarond12]

I'm at 7500 miles after 15 months into my lease. My wife is at 4500 after 12 months into her purchase. Living in a densely populated city has its benefits. :lol:

 

[electriclarry]

These numbers are actuals, and are a accurate snapshot of 2011 LEAF values nationally.
Any chance you could post current results? Between your last post and today many 2011's have come off lease.
Here are the sales details.

 

[OrientExpress]

It's been over 60 days since the last auction report, and 2011 LEAF SL wholesale and retail values have had an acceleration of depreciation as was expected during this period.

We are entering the time when the first large batch of LEAFs that were put into service back in 2011 are coming off of lease and are entering the used vehicle market. The large inventory of 2011 cars, combined with the price decrease of the 2014/2015 cars and very generous incentives on new cars have contributed to the current values of 1st generation cars.

The current very attractive lease prices of 2014/2015 and their newer cars improvements have all contributed to put pressure on 2011 values. With that said, this makes 2011 cars a good purchase as they are undervalued.

Generally the delta between todays current values of 2011 LEAFs and what they were projected to be back in 2011 is about $2K lower.

 

[xtremeflyer]

Generally the delta between todays current values of 2011 LEAFs and what they were projected to be back in 2011 is about $2K lower.

My residual was $15,800, sold at auction for $11,400 last week. I turned it in in at least Average condition and 5,000 miles under the 15k/year lease rate. No wear and tear items were charged to me. So I'd say, for at least this example, about $4k lower.

 

[OrientExpress]

My residual was $15,800, sold at auction for $11,400 last week. I turned it in in at least Average condition and 5,000 miles under the 15k/year lease rate. No wear and tear items were charged to me. So I'd say, for at least this example, about $4k lower.

Don't confuse wholesale auction prices with lease residual values. A lease residual value is the same as a retail price. Because of the mileage your car sold at about the right price and would be rated as below average. On the auction block, mileage is the biggest factor in pricing.

The expected retail price for your car would be $13.2K which is in line with current projections.

 

[JeremyW]

On the auction block, mileage is the biggest factor in pricing.

Eventually this will change. Amp-Hours is the new mileage.

 

[OrientExpress]

On the auction block, mileage is the biggest factor in pricing.

Eventually this will change. Amp-Hours is the new mileage.

Maybe, but the criteria for how automobiles are valued at auction won't change any time in the foreseeable future.

 

[QueenBee]

My residual was $15,800, sold at auction for $11,400 last week. I turned it in in at least Average condition and 5,000 miles under the 15k/year lease rate. No wear and tear items were charged to me. So I'd say, for at least this example, about $4k lower.

Don't confuse wholesale auction prices with lease residual values. A lease residual value is the same as a retail price. Because of the mileage your car sold at about the right price and would be rated as below average. On the auction block, mileage is the biggest factor in pricing.

The expected retail price for your car would be $16.6K which is in line with current projections.

Thanks for continuing to post this data. How did you come up with 16.6k? Is this as simple as a rule of thumb percent?

 

[OrientExpress]

Oops, I was looking at the April numbers instead of the June ones. It should be $13.2K for a below average car.

 

[mxp]

Hi OrientExpress, Given that the 2011/2012 battery replacement program is out, can you help share your thoughts as to what the potential effects could be to the resale value of a 2011 Leaf?

I have also pondered this question on the other Battery Replacement thread.

It's been over 60 days since the last auction report, and 2011 LEAF SL wholesale and retail values have had an acceleration of depreciation as was expected during this period.

We are entering the time when the first large batch of LEAFs that were put into service back in 2011 are coming off of lease and are entering the used vehicle market. The large inventory of 2011 cars, combined with the price decrease of the 2014/2015 cars and very generous incentives on new cars have contributed to the current values of 1st generation cars.

The current very attractive lease prices of 2014/2015 and their newer cars improvements have all contributed to put pressure on 2011 values. With that said, this makes 2011 cars a good purchase as they are undervalued.

Generally the delta between todays current values of 2011 LEAFs and what they were projected to be back in 2011 is about $2K lower.
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[OrientExpress]

Hi OrientExpress, Given that the 2011/2012 battery replacement program is out, can you help share your thoughts as to what the potential effects could be to the resale value of a 2011 Leaf?

It is doubtful that a fresh battery will have anything more that a small effect on resale value of a 2011 LEAF. Expendable items like brake pads, tires, batteries, or traction batteries are considered maintenance items and new ones usually don't do anything to bump the value. I will say that for a private party sale, a new traction battery may add $1K to the price of the LEAF, but not much more than that. At the end of the day, total mileage is the biggest determination of the resale value of an automobile either at wholesale, retail, or as a private party sale.

 

[evnow]

I will say that for a private party sale, a new traction battery may add $1K to the price of the LEAF, but not much more than that. At the end of the day, total mileage is the biggest determination of the resale value of an automobile either at wholesale, retail, or as a private party sale.

I think - once people understand EVs the valuation technique will change. Buyers are going to value newer battery much more than a used one.

Anyway, it makes little sense to get a new battery and sell the car. Better to sell the car and let the buyer decide whether to get a new battery or not.

 

[OrientExpress]

I think - once people understand EVs the valuation technique will change. Buyers are going to value newer battery much more than a used one.

I agree that is possible, but for the foreseeable future how cars are valued is controlled by the automobile dealers, and they have no incentive at all to carve out a special method for valuing EVs over ICEVs. If anything this may show early movement in private party EV transactions, especially when both parties are EV aware.

I don't think that there will be any large movement in this arena until EVs reach at least a 15% share nationally.

 

[mxp]

I think - once people understand EVs the valuation technique will change. Buyers are going to value newer battery much more than a used one.

I agree that is possible, but for the foreseeable future how cars are valued is controlled by the automobile dealers, and they have no incentive at all to carve out a special method for valuing EVs over ICEVs. If anything this may show early movement in private party EV transactions, especially when both parties are EV aware.

I don't think that there will be any large movement in this arena until EVs reach at least a 15% share nationally.

Hi OrientExpress, Thanks for your reply and your viewpoints.