Western USA drought worst in modern era

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smkettner said:
Another reservoir express jet stream vortex pineapple river has started.

Otherwise the levels are going up again ;)

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGraphsMain.action
Don't take all the pineapples - send some this way as well.

http://www.lcra.org/water/water-supply/drought-update/pages/default.aspx
Our major water-supply and irrigation lakes are 35% full. The lakes used 'just' for ag irrigation are well below that. 16 of the 20 inland boat ramps are closed/ marine/fishing businesses that have been in operation for 50+ years are bankrupt; towns continue projects to pipe sewage effluent back into muni water supplies, and there are a number of legal wars in progress because cities are paying 3-4x normal water rates to buy controlling stakes in rural aquifers. And people are still watering lawns.... :roll:
 
smkettner said:
Folsom Lake is the first to hit 101% of normal. Still going to be rough come late summer and no snowpack.
Anyway the way of life in CA is not completely ending.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/resDetailOrig.action?resid=FOL

Folsom is a relatively puny reservoir, and unfortunately, its level is not representative of statewide conditions:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/rescond.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Less than two-thirds of normal reservoir storage, for this date:

Total % Group Average 65.88%
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reservoirs/RES" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The last AR storm did bring snowpack up from ~21% to ~27% of normal, but expect that % to fall rapidly, with very little precipitation and abnormally high temperatures expected.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
smkettner said:
..the way of life in CA is not completely ending.
No, not yet...


A ‘megadrought’ will grip U.S. in the coming decades, NASA researchers say


The long and severe drought in the U.S. Southwest pales in comparison with what’s coming: a “megadrought” that will grip that region and the central Plains later this century and probably stay there for decades, a new study says.

Thirty-five years from now, if the current pace of climate change continues unabated, those areas of the country will experience a weather shift that will linger for as long as three decades, according to the study, released Thursday...

After 2050, there is “overwhelming evidence of a dry shift,” he said, “way drier than the megadroughts of the 1100s and 1200s.” The cause, Smerdon continued, “is twofold, reductions in rainfall and snowfall. Not just rainfall but soil moisture...and changes in evaporation that dry out the soil much more than normal.”...

“We took the climate model...and compared” two periods, 2050 to 2099 and 1950 to 1999, she said. “What it showed is this big, red blotch over Southern California. It will really impact megacities, populations and water availability.”...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/todays-drought-in-the-west-is-nothing-compared-to-what-may-be-coming/2015/02/12/0041646a-b2d9-11e4-854b-a38d13486ba1_story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Reporting on this article:

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/1/e1400082" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
I see the reservoirs as 2/3rds full. Not 1/3 empty.
I mention Folsom because that seemed to be the focus for most of the media hype.

The thousand year drought is just another scaremonger looking for ratings or political boost.
 
smkettner said:
I see the reservoirs as 2/3rds full. Not 1/3 empty.
I mention Folsom because that seemed to be the focus for most of the media hype.

The thousand year drought is just another scaremonger looking for ratings or political boost.
Tell that to Australia. Their 'drought' started in the 1970s. In order to continue to feed their population, they had to completely invent new farming systems and practices.

If you really think anyone telling the truth is scaremongering, what do you call a forest fire?
 
smkettner said:
Drought in Australia seems to be somewhere between constant and persistent since at least 1800.

Of course we farm different as we expect higher yields and have better methods to stretch the water use for more crop yield.
Especially when the going gets tough. This is normal human adaptation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought_in_Australia
Our industrial farming is the least efficient in the world for chemicals, water use, and pollution. Yes, our yields of industrial corn or industrial soy (neither fit for human consumption) are high, but that's from a combination of extraction and using 7 calories of oil for every calorie of 'food'.

That's nothing to crow about.

Australia's crisis point in the 70s was from drought and population and chemicals and from overuse of 'western' chemical ag. It's why Bill Mollison and others created Permaculture - because it was painfully clear to all but the most staunch ostriches that things had to change.

Sorry - I missed the part where you told us what you call a forest fire... Do you think that people should be afraid when their house is on fire?
 
Forest fire burns both directions. Some is natural. Some is managed. Some is accidental. Some is deliberate and malicious.

Any of these can cause loss of life and property. If you live in the trees you should have an escape plan.

I have no link but I believe 100+ years of managing forest fires has contributed as much or more to the large fires we have today as is contributed by hot and dry conditions.
Probably a multiplier effect.

No perfect answer here so I am not sure what you are fishing for.
 
edatoakrun said:

A ‘megadrought’ will grip U.S. in the coming decades, NASA researchers say


...

“We took the climate model...and compared” two periods, 2050 to 2099 and 1950 to 1999, she said. “What it showed is this big, red blotch over Southern California. It will really impact megacities, populations and water availability.”...
Continuing to use the climate models which have demonstrated no skill at predicting the future makes absolutely no sense. Those who do not understand the limitations of simulation models are easily fooled.

Note the plot in the alarmist article:

figure-31.png


The climate models are already diverging from what is actually happening.

And, again, any drought less than 200 years in the southwest is not "unprecedented".
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
Bad drought in Brazil too. Seems like the weather is bad everywhere one way or another.
Anecdotal information (and lots of predictions of doom) can lead one to believe that. The opposite is true: Droughts are down, floods are down, hurricanes and cyclones are down tornadoes are down. Since this is a drought thread, I'll post the worldwide drought data from this open-access paper in Nature:

sdata20141-f5.jpg


While CA is currently worse, drought conditions in the US as a whole are significantly better than either 60 or 80 years ago:

pmdi_12_1934_1954_2014.gif


Along with other factors, increased CO2 and reduced drought conditions allow the world to continually increase per-capita food production:

global-food-production-by-year-top-6.jpg
 
smkettner said:
I see the reservoirs as 2/3rds full. Not 1/3 empty.
I mention Folsom because that seemed to be the focus for most of the media hype....
You don't seem to see very well.

California's reservoirs are less than half full, on average, and even Folsom is only 53% full.

That means they currently hold less than two-thirds of the normal levels of storage this date.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/rescond.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

quote="smkettner"...The thousand year drought is just another scaremonger looking for ratings or political boost
It's a great relief, that we can rely on your authority, and classify The American Association for the Advancement of Science as "just another scaremonger"...

Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/1/e1400082" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Founded in 1880 on $10,000 of seed money from the American inventor Thomas Edison, Science has grown to become the world's leading outlet for scientific news, commentary, and cutting-edge research, with the largest paid circulation of any peer-reviewed general-science journal. Through its print and online incarnations, Science reaches an estimated worldwide readership of more than one million. In content, too, the journal is truly international in scope; some 35 to 40 percent of the corresponding authors on its papers are based outside the United States. Its articles consistently rank among world's most cited research...
http://www.sciencemag.org/site/help/about/about.xhtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
DWR seems to be planning for the worst.

It is seeking a permit to take emergency measures, damning the major delta waterways, to protect water transfers to Southern California from saltwater intrusion, over the next 10 years.

I doubt the last storm changed the odds very much, and that whether the damns are built this Summer still depends on how much precipitation we get during the last ~two months of our rainy season.

January 26, 2015

SACRAMENTO – It may be necessary to install emergency salinity control barriers across three channels in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta if the weather stays exceedingly dry through spring. In order to prepare for worst-case drought conditions, and after an extensive environmental analysis and more than nine months of discussion with Delta residents and local water district managers, the Department of Water Resources (DWR) is seeking a permit from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers that would allow for the temporary installation of rock barriers at intervals over the next 10 years when saltwater threatens deep intrusion into the Delta.

The emergency drought barriers would limit saltwater intrusion, minimizing the amount of water that must be released from upstream reservoirs to repel the salt. Too much saltwater too deep in the Delta can contaminate water supplies for Contra Costa, Alameda and Santa Clara county residents, Delta residents and the 25 million Californians who rely on the Delta-based federal and state water projects.

On January 16, DWR submitted an application to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for a programmatic permit to allow the installation of rock barriers for no more than eight months in a single year across three Delta channels. DWR does not seek to build such barriers soon, if ever. The Department’s permit application seeks to allow DWR to use emergency barriers as a drought management tool up to three times over the next 10 years in the event drought gets so severe barriers are necessary to conserve water needed to maintain public health and safety.

Extensive environmental analysis and months of conversations with Delta residents and water district managers have led DWR to conclude that the potential installation of emergency drought barriers does not require a full environmental impact report under the California Environmental Quality Act. DWR's Initial Study/Proposed Mitigated Negative Declaration, available here describes the project, an assessment of potentially significant or significant environmental effects, and the commitments DWR proposes to incorporate into the project to either eliminate potentially significant or significant effects or reduce them to less than significant.

The public is invited to comment on the Initial Study/Proposed Mitigated Negative Declaration during a 30-day comment period that begins January 23, 2015. Comments may be emailed to [email protected] or mailed to Jacob McQuirk, Supervising Engineer, Bay-Delta Office, California Department of Water Resources, P.O. Box 942836, Sacramento, CA 94236. Fax to (916) 653-6077. Comments must be submitted by 5 p.m. on February 25, 2015.

A decision to install emergency drought barriers in 2015 would be made through the multi-agency Real-Time Drought Operations Team and would require a temporary urgency change petition to the State Water Resources Control Board, consultation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Marine Fisheries Service and a determination by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife.

In the short but intense drought of 1976-77, DWR placed rock barriers temporarily across several Delta channels to help physically limit saltwater intrusion into the Delta. On January 17, 2014, Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. issued a Proclamation of a State of Emergency directing state officials to take all necessary actions to prepare for drought conditions. Within the proclamation, the Governor directed DWR “to take necessary actions to protect water quality and water supply in the Delta, including installation of temporary barriers or temporary water supply connections as needed.” The Governor’s proclamation also directed DWR to coordinate with the Department of Fish and Wildlife to minimize impacts to affected aquatic species.

Planning for emergency drought barriers across Sutter Slough, Steamboat Slough, and West False River began in the spring of 2014. Storms in February and March improved water supply conditions, and in late May 2014, DWR determined that installation of emergency drought barriers would not be necessary to preserve water quality in the Delta during 2014. Planning for future emergency drought barriers continued.

Emergency drought barriers can help maintain water quality for much of the Delta, but they also have the potential to degrade water quality conditions for some areas in the western Delta, adversely affect Delta fisheries and interfere with Delta boating and recreation. Through the incorporation of mitigation measures, including monitoring of fish and turbidity at the construction site, all potential impacts associated with the project are reduced to less than significant levels. Details on each of these mitigation measures are included in the Initial Study/Proposed Mitigated Negative Declaration.

The three-year period from 2012 through 2014 has been the driest three-year period on record in California. The runoff of storms last month gave a modest boost to major reservoir storage, but conditions since then have turned dry. January, typically the wettest month in California, has not seen a single major storm. A drought contingency plan by DWR and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, submitted last week to the State Water Resources Control Board, anticipates the need to install temporary emergency drought barriers across several Delta channels only if conditions remain so dry through spring that the odds of a drier year occurring are only one percent...

http://ca.gov/drought/news/story-71.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
edatoakrun said:
smkettner said:
I see the reservoirs as 2/3rds full. Not 1/3 empty.
I mention Folsom because that seemed to be the focus for most of the media hype....
You don't seem to see very well.

California's reservoirs are less than half full, on average, and even Folsom is only 53% full.

That means they currently hold less than two-thirds of the normal levels of storage this date.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/rescond.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Name any date where all were above even 95% in February.
Sorry that I used the word 'full' pertaining to average.
Drought is generally defined as below average not below maximum. :roll:
 
edatoakrun said:
smkettner said:
I see the reservoirs as 2/3rds full. Not 1/3 empty.
I mention Folsom because that seemed to be the focus for most of the media hype....
You don't seem to see very well.
It's not you. ;) Vision trouble seems to be a symptom of climate-denial-itis. In addition to affecting reading, it also appears to result in posting pretty pictures from paid liars. As far as I can tell the problem's incurable. :cry:
 
Not that I subscribe to the sky is falling, unprecedented drought in California hype (record-breaking, sure) having experienced '76-'77, but as I see it, the concern with the reservoirs is that we depend on snowmelt to fill them in April/May/June, and at the moment we have next to no snowpack. Of course, the season isn't over, and a few years back it rained something like 28 out of 30 or 31 days in the Bay Area in March or April, with snow in the Sierra, so things could change. But at the moment, with only December rains and then the two storms we had last weekend which dropped very little as snow, we're heading for another year of tight supply.
 
RegGuheert said:
Those who do not understand the limitations of simulation models are easily fooled.
Exactly. And I've seen little evidence you understand the strengths and limitations of climate models.

RegGuheert said:
bobtisdale
One reason why you don't understand the strengths and limitations of climate models is that you rely on sources that are so bad they aren't even wrong.

RegGuheert said:
And, again, any drought less than 200 years in the southwest is not "unprecedented".

A shifting of probabilities seems likely at least to me. Notice that a shift in distribution of probabilities of drought is different than "the Southwest is in drought (or not)", so that proves (or disproves) something about some political point. I'm not making a political point here.

I'm far more interested in the precedent of the Pliocene climate. That is where we are going. If not the Eocene.

1200px-All_palaeotemps.png
 
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