Western USA drought worst in modern era

[Weatherman]

Yup, clearly you must be right, Reg.

The data I provided is correct, as you can clearly see from the links provided. You see, we don't have to take your word for it when you claim to be experiencing "another year without winter". We can simply look at the data and see that is far from being a true statement.

College Station, TX average temp for January is 8.1F below average. That's pretty cold by any standard. It is true that December was relatively warm at 3.1F above average, but November was cold at 5.2F below average.

There was a string of days earlier in January where highs were in the 30s and lows in the 20s. You'd have to be pretty tolerant of cold not to turn on the heat under those conditions.

 

[AndyH]

Yup, clearly you must be right, Reg.

The data I provided is correct, as you can clearly see from the links provided. You see, we don't have to take your word for it when you claim to be experiencing "another year without winter". We can simply look at the data and see that is far from being a true statement.

College Station, TX average temp for January is 8.1F below average. That's pretty cold by any standard. It is true that December was relatively warm at 3.1F above average, but November was cold at 5.2F below average.

There was a string of days earlier in January where highs were in the 30s and lows in the 20s. You'd have to be pretty tolerant of cold not to turn on the heat under those conditions.

Yes, there were two short periods where it was 'colder than average' across the state this winter, and yes, one was in January. Both were polar vortex events and neither was 'normal'. And no, I didn't need to run the furnace as the sun here is intense and the solar gain was enough to keep the house well above 70 during the day. The coldest it got in the house was 67 one night.

As for January stats, I'll wait until the month is complete. Until then, averages are sketchy at best - even if they come from a pretty chart done by someone in Nebraska tasked with the northern part of the central plains.

But Weatherman and Reg - the site's two climate change deniers - you're welcome to come down and experience this 'colder than average' January for yourselves. Bring some SPF 50 though... :lol: You won't need a sweater as it's 86 in my living room and 90 upstairs even though my back door is wide open and windows are open on both floors. I refuse to run the air conditioner in January in spite of the sweat...

In the mean time, our drought continues. Though we had more rain in 2014 than in the earlier years of this drought, we were still about 4 inches below normal. CA today is where TX was in 2011, except this stage of drought was in place in 2006. We're not out of our drought yet and water stocks are still waaaaay low. CA - if your experience mirrors the central plains or SW, you're in for 'more fun' for a number of years to come...

Best quote I heard this month was about conditions in Australia and their continued 'long term drought'. The speaker said that they had to change their message at some point, as nobody refers to the Sahara desert as being in a 'drought'...

 

[RegGuheert]

In the mean time, our drought continues.

According to our government, there is currently no hydrological drought of 2 inches or more in any part of Texas:

There is no hydrological drought and no lack of winter in Texas right now.

Enough correcting false statements by Andy. Let's get back to the discussion of CA where there actually is a drought and temperatures are above normal levels.

 

[AndyH]

Don't quit your day job, Reg.

source: http://sucho.unl.edu/web_archive/DroughtMonitorData/pngs/20150113/20150113_usdm.png
US drought monitor from the USDA. Last time I checked that was part of 'our government'.

https://www.drought.gov/drought/area/tx

Liars lie; deniers deny.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I thought climate science was supposed to avoid anecdotal observations like "wow that was some rainstorm last week" and "I've hardly had to run the heat at all this month".

 

[Stoaty]

I thought climate science was supposed to avoid anecdotal observations like "wow that was some rainstorm last week" and "I've hardly had to run the heat at all this month".

Yes, the correct climate statement is that 2014 was the hottest year on record globally. However, climate scientists also predict that the Southwest U.S. is going to get hotter and dryer over time, something which may be happening already.

 

[Weatherman]

Yes, the correct climate statement is that 2014 was the hottest year on record globally.

Actually, the correct climate statement is that there's a 48% chance that 2014 was the hottest year on record, globally (based on NOAA's uncertainty estimates):

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13/supplemental/page-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[AndyH]

Join us as we relive the joys of yesteryear.....

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWWeYDcClXE[/youtube]

 

[AndyH]

Yes, the correct climate statement is that 2014 was the hottest year on record globally.

Actually, the correct climate statement is that there's a 48% chance that 2014 was the hottest year on record, globally (based on NOAA's uncertainty estimates):

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13/supplemental/page-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

For the sake of accuracy and precision...

... For example, the 2014 temperature anomaly was reported as "0.69°C above the 20th century average, ±0.09°C."....

Using a Monte Carlo approach (Arguez et al, 2013), NCDC considered the known uncertainty of the global land and ocean annual temperature in the 2014 annual ranking. Taking into account the uncertainty and assuming all years (1880-2014) in the time series are independent, the chance of 2014 being

Warmest year on record: 48.0%
One of the five warmest years: 90.4%
One of the 10 warmest years: 99.2%
One of the 20 warmest years: 100.0%
Warmer than the 20th century average: 100.0%
Warmer than the 1981-2010 average: 100.0%

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Cheesy news source aside my naysaying friends are saying NASA's certainty is only 38%, where is the discrepancy?http://newsbusters.org/blogs/pj-gladnick/2015/01/18/nasa-scientists-admit-only-38-chance-2014-was-hottest-year-record

 

[WetEV]

Cheesy news source aside my naysaying friends are saying NASA's certainty is only 38%, where is the discrepancy?http://newsbusters.org/blogs/pj-gladnick/2015/01/18/nasa-scientists-admit-only-38-chance-2014-was-hottest-year-record

Which was based on another article:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...sure-right.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

Dr Ed Hawkins, associate professor of climate science at the University of Reading, said the past 15 years had seen a slightly slower rate of warming.

But he added: ‘You have to take a longer view, because 15 years is too short a period. We expect natural fluctuations, volcanic eruptions and changes in solar output to sometimes slow and sometimes increase warming rates.’

The real issue is that:

Since 1880, Earth’s average surface temperature has warmed by about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius), a trend that is largely driven by the increase in carbon dioxide and other human emissions into the planet’s atmosphere

And more important, this increase in carbon dioxide is continuing.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

My friends sent that link too, but I still don't see the source of the 38% number. Not that it matters.

 

[edatoakrun]

Back on-topic.

Statewide snowpack has declined to 31% of normal:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

More ski slopes are closing

Dodge Ridge ski resort closes over lack of snow

The Dodge Ridge ski resort east of Sonora shut down its lifts Tuesday because of the abysmal lack of snow in the high Sierra.

The 862-acre mountain that rises to 8,200 feet — a relatively small site by California standards — was the latest in two days to ground operations as January temperatures climb to near-record highs and weeks pass without wet weather.

Badger Pass in Yosemite National Park announced Monday it was closing shop...

http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Dodge-Ridge-ski-resort-closes-over-lack-of-snow-6027698.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If you click here:

http://skipark.com/the-mountain/cams/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You may see a truly pathetic view of a fight against nature, a snowmaker at work before the day heats up.

As mentioned previously, the high temperature anomaly coinciding with lower rainfall over the last few years has exacerbated the Drought.

...Redding Airport (small period) will beat prev record 1988 by1.4F

https://twitter.com/RobElvington/status/550426572016988161" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The rapid warm-up, of ~ 4 F degrees since I took delivery of my LEAF, is interest is certainly a factor in my LEAF's range/capacity performance.

No snow (yet) this winter (at ~2,100 ft.) for the first time in the 2I years I've been here.

Had I known, I probably would have held on to my OE tires another year.

 

[WetEV]

My friends sent that link too, but I still don't see the source of the 38% number. Not that it matters.

That link quotes Gavin Schmidt as the source.

But yes, it doesn't matter. If the uncertainty of a measurement is +-0.1, and the trend is 0.02 per measurement interval, then few measurements will be records by more than the uncertainty. Basic.

 

[GRA]

Back on-topic.
No snow (yet) this winter (at ~2,100 ft.) for the first time in the 2I years I've been here.

Had I known, I probably would have held on to my OE tires another year.

I wasn't up there in the winter, but during the '70s drought we could walk at least up to Lake Helen (10,400 ft.) on the Avalanche Gulch route on Mt. Shasta, on dirt and scree the whole way. ISTR we went considerably higher before we hit snow, as this shot from back then shows: http://www.siskiyous.edu/Shasta/env/drought/kg1977.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Avalanche Gulch is the gully that runs down more or less towards the camera, just below and right of the little patch of cloud blocking the summit. Lack of snow was a pain, as it meant we had to walk all the way back down, taking 30 minutes to an hour for the descent from below the Red Banks to below Lake Helen, that once took me 6 minutes doing a butt glissade. During a summer climbing season when there's snow, the descent route gets turned into a trough like a bobsled run, so you just sit/lie in it and go, preferably sitting on a closed-cell foam pad or a snow shovel scoop so your pants don't get wrecked. Here's a more typical summer view, when you can do that: http://www.summitpost.org/june-15-2004-looking/58013/c-155406" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lake Helen is just on the uphill side of the big bump in center of the gulch that's slightly uncovered near its top, about 1/3rd of the way up from the tree line to the skyline. And here's what it typically looks like when you get there on a busy summer weekend: http://www.summitpost.org/colorful-camp-at-helen-lake/569243/c-155406" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[edatoakrun]

Many high temp records broken yesterday in the Western States (see link) a few by large margins, including:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
0437 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SOUTH LAKE TAHOE CA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET AT SOUTH LAKE TAHOE CA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 57 SET IN 1982.


RECORDS FOR THIS LOCATION DATE FROM 1968.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NV&prodtype=public" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

No high-temp records here (AFAIK) but I did take the opportunity to drive a range/capacity test (and a walk around Burney Falls SP) and considered driving 100+ miles to VLBW, Which I've never done before, during Winter, while I'm still at 22 during other seasons:

...That makes 22 total 100+ mile-on-an-"100%"-charge trips on my LEAF (not including the multiple 100+ mile trips utilizing net descent) the last eight made after losing capacity bar 12 last August (2013)...

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=7022&start=740" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

By the time I crossed Hatchet MT summit for the second time (~61 miles) it was obvious I'd either have to drive so slowly as to seriously irritate lot of other drivers, or else drive past the VLB to reach triple digits.

So I lead-footed it (relatively speaking) and got home with only 93.4 odometer (~93.6 actual) miles, to ~VLB.

 

[palmermd]

atmospheric river. that is a new term for me. It will be interesting to see if this storm carries as much rain as they are saying. The last one in December was kind of a dud compared to what they were predicting, although it was a big storm.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/weather/article9180716.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[smkettner]

From the history I read the 'atmospheric river' is more of a continuous storm lasting for weeks.
The big flood of 1849/1850 would be an example much more than these little 2 day storms coming down the coast.
JMHO

 

[palmermd]

From the history I read the 'atmospheric river' is more of a continuous storm lasting for weeks.
The big flood of 1849/1850 would be an example much more than these little 2 day storms coming down the coast.
JMHO

Lasting for weeks would be great, but the folks studying this "river" that will arrive Thursday night is only expected to last 24-30 hours.

 

[Weatherman]

From the history I read the 'atmospheric river' is more of a continuous storm lasting for weeks.
The big flood of 1849/1850 would be an example much more than these little 2 day storms coming down the coast.
JMHO

Lasting for weeks would be great, but the folks studying this "river" that will arrive Thursday night is only expected to last 24-30 hours.

This is just another name for what we use to call the "pineapple express". It's a flow of air that originates from the tropics, near Hawaii, and ends on the west coast of North America. Sometimes it's directed toward California, sometimes it's directed toward S.E Alaska, or any point in between.

Technically, the December event was not a "pineapple express" since the flow of air didn't originate in the tropics. This one is. But, like most other pineapple express events, for California it will only last for a few days before the air flow gets diverted back toward the Pacific N.W.