Western USA drought worst in modern era

[RegGuheert]

It's amazing what an uproar is created by posting factual data about the climate.

Actually there is no uproar when facts are posted. Please do give it a try - we'll watch! :lol:

Sure. Here they are again. Please, anyone, go ahead and dispute the facts. Endless ad hominem attacks show that you are unable.

Anyone can claim the sky is falling. Fortunately, the data show that just the opposite is occurring.

Bad drought in Brazil too. Seems like the weather is bad everywhere one way or another.

Anecdotal information (and lots of predictions of doom) can lead one to believe that. The opposite is true: Droughts are down, floods are down, hurricanes and cyclones are down tornadoes are down. Since this is a drought thread, I'll post the worldwide drought data from this open-access paper in Nature:

While CA is currently worse, drought conditions in the US as a whole are significantly better than either 60 or 80 years ago:

Along with other factors, increased CO2 and reduced drought conditions allow the world to continually increase per-capita food production:

 

[AndyH]

<snips>

Goddard and Spencer? Those are your 'facts'?

Look, the others have been repeatedly debunked. I'll take your "feed the world" chart. First, your suggestion that hotter/drier = more production is only valid if all other factors are unchanged. And that is absolutely NOT the case. The ag industry has been working their asses off to keep things stable IN SPITE OF the droughts and heat. The seeds have changed, the chemicals have changed, and irrigation rates have changed. That's more than enough to destroy your chart.

But wait - there's more! :evil:

One FACT is that for every 1°C increase in temp, seed productivity drops about 10%. I've told you that before and provided links to real sources. Another FACT is that hotter temperatures forces plants to 'drink' more water. I've told you that and provided links before as well. We're already over-pumping aquifers, but in order to maintain production in hotter, dryer locations, we must extract MORE water. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that we can't keep doing that much longer.

Another FACT is that in the real world more CO2 is not delivered in isolation - Yes, we can pump CO2 into a greenhouse at a lower temperature to increase growth of SOME plants but only to a point - productivity increases some then falls off as more CO2 is added. But in the real world, more CO2 equals more heat and also equals disruption of the hydrologic cycle - it changes 'normal' precipitation patterns. That means that in the real world, Reg, not in your fantasy world - in the real world more CO2 is NOT a good thing for crops.

We do not 'feed the world' with our current system with today's climate. We didn't 'feed the world' 30 years ago - one of the last years with a 'normal' climate. And we sure as hell will not be able to feed to world with our current systems if we keep dumping fossil carbon into the sewer of the atmosphere.

You've been show that all over this forum for the past 4+ years. Everyone here has seen your BS. It was wrong 4 years ago, and 3 years ago, and last year and today. It's time for you to try something else - we have your lies memorized. Enough.

 

[RegGuheert]

Goddard and Spencer? Those are your 'facts'?

You're so blinded by your beliefs that you fail to notice that the data that Steven Goddard presented was directly from NOAA and the data from Spencer was directly from the UN.

All of your unsupported comments are snipped. Without any support, it is just your religious belief speaking.

 

[Stoaty]

You're so blinded by your beliefs that you fail to notice that the data that Steven Goddard presented was directly from NOAA and the data from Spencer was directly from the U.N.

Here is a general debunking of Roy Spencer (by other climate scientists):

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/05/how-to-cook-a-graph-in-three-easy-lessons" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Also, from the same article a quote about how Roy Spencer got it wrong for a long time:

That’s not Roy’s prose, but it is Roy’s data over there in the graph on the right, which purports to show that the climate has been cooling, not warming. We now know, of course, that the satellite data set confirms that the climate is warming , and indeed at very nearly the same rate as indicated by the surface temperature records. Now, there’s nothing wrong with making mistakes when pursuing an innovative observational method, but Spencer and Christy sat by for most of a decade allowing — indeed encouraging — the use of their data set as an icon for global warming skeptics. They committed serial errors in the data analysis, but insisted they were right and models and thermometers were wrong. They did little or nothing to root out possible sources of errors, and left it to others to clean up the mess, as has now been done.

Edit:

Here is an article discussing how wrong the amateur Steven Goddard got things in the past:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2008/08/25/203013/a-new-olympic-record-for-retraction-of-a-denier-talking-point/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So we should now trust the presentation, analysis and interpretation of data of these guys over mainstream climate scientists?

Edit:

Reg, my only hope for you is that you will look back 10 years from now, at that point recognize how wrong you were, and vow to stick with mainstream science in the future.

PS No one would be happier than I if mainstream climate scientists turn out to have things horribly wrong and the world isn't warming and the oceans aren't acidifying. However, until that day I will accept their results and prognosis for the future of temperature trends if we don't change our ways.

 

[RegGuheert]

More ad hominem. It seems no one is interested in addressing the facts.

So we have people saying that it's getting worse everywhere without any support whatsoever.

The facts tell us that droughts of all severity levels are steadily covering a smaller and smaller portion of the globe. This is GOOD news!

There is a steady increase in the amount of the top six grains grown, per capita, worldwide. This is GOOD news!

Droughts over the US are currently MUCH less severe than they were during parts of the 20th century.

Yes, California is in a severe drought condition right now. The last time this happened was 1976-1977. Likely the reservoirs are lower now because there are nearly twice as many people living in the state now versus then.

Ad hominem attacks are not science. They are not scientific. They are the tools of those who have weak arguments. Period.

 

[AndyH]

Goddard and Spencer? Those are your 'facts'?

You're so blinded by your beliefs that you fail to notice that the data that Steven Goddard presented was directly from NOAA and the data from Spencer was directly from the UN.

All of your unsupported comments are snipped. Without any support, it is just your religious belief speaking.

Bzzzt - thanks for playing. I gave you facts - the same facts that have been presented, 'debated' and validated all over this site. You cannot handle facts so you attack the messenger. You continue to do it with me, Wet, Stoaty, and all the others on this forum for the past 4+ years this crap has been going on.

The denier process is to cherry pick data (and if real data can't be pulled out of context or twisted into a proper lie, then they'll just make stuff up), push it as if it was either factual OR relevant, and then attack anyone that raises the BS flag.

As I've been saying for years here, Reg - you have your own dedicated BS flag and it's pretty damn thread-bare. Until the flag's replaced, we'll bring in a temporary solution.

 

[RegGuheert]

In other words, you've looked and you cannot find data to indicate that worldwide drought is increasing or that worldwide food production is decreasing. Since CO2 increases plant growth it is quite likely that both of these facts are positively influenced by the increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Also, since plant growth is positively influenced by warmer temperatures (particularly in cooler climates, in spite of what Andy may believe), the very slight increases in temperature are also likely responsible.

I guess you'll just have to be happy about the good news then!

As I have linked multiple times in this thread previously, the drought in CA is the result of a high-pressure system that parked itself over the northern Pacific Ocean for a couple of years and caused the jet stream to bypass the state. This is the same weather pattern that caused the drought in the 1970s.

Unfortunately, none of this changes the fact that multi-hundred-year droughts just over 1000 years ago are recorded in the proxy data for CA. That's why the recent alarmist paper only goes back 1000 years. Let's hope the present drought ends soon.

 

[AndyH]

In other words, you've looked and you cannot find data to indicate that worldwide drought is increasing or that worldwide food production is decreasing. Since CO2 increases plant growth it is quite likely that both of these facts are positively influenced by the increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Also, since plant growth is positively influenced by warmer temperatures (particularly in cooler climates, in spite of what Andy may believe), the very slight increases in temperature are also likely responsible.

I guess you'll just have to be happy about the good news then!

As I have linked multiple times in this thread previously, the drought in CA is the result of a high-pressure system that parked itself over the northern Pacific Ocean for a couple of years and caused the jet stream to bypass the state. This is the same weather pattern that caused the drought in the 1970s.

Unfortunately, none of this changes the fact that multi-hundred-year droughts just over 1000 years ago are recorded in the proxy data for CA. That's why the recent alarmist paper only goes back 1000 years. Let's hope the present drought ends soon.

Oh brother. Waffle waffle waffle. FUD FUD. Fake data fake data, cherry pick and misrepresent, ad hominem. Yawn.

Nothing about what I posted about climate is "BELIEF" - it's real data with a full scientific underpinning. Do you even realize what you're saying here? Do you even realize how INSANE it makes you look?

Heh heh, lookie here - there cain't be any climate change but if there is it's OK because when we plant bananas in Wisconsin they'll grow better than they do now! Heh heh - ain't that cool!? :roll:

The Arab Spring started because climate change strengthened drought resulted in conditions where entire countries could no longer provide food for their people. That's a simple and well documented bunch of facts - there's not a single "belief" in there. What YOU continue to suggest is that ignorance is bliss, FUD is truth, and that Everything is Awesome. Thanks, George Orwell, but from now on recycle your own garbage - we don't want or need it.

 

[NeilBlanchard]

Climate science is not political.

“Climate change has taken on political dimensions. That's odd because I don't see people choosing sides over E=MC2 or other fundamental facts of science.”
~Neil deGrasse Tyson

Neil seems to have missed the evolution and age of the Universe debate.

Those "debates" are not about the science. They are based on a misunderstanding, and based on science challenging people's beliefs.

Science is not political, and when people try to make it political, it is because they do not accept reality.

 

[Stoaty]

Reg, you do know that so far most of the heat has gone into the oceans, not the atmosphere, but we still had one of the hottest years on record globally (perhaps the hottest):

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter03_FINAL.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(apologies in advance for linking to a scientific report)

 

[AndyH]

Those "debates" are not about the science. They are based on a misunderstanding, and based on science challenging people's beliefs.

Science is not political, and when people try to make it political, it is because they do not accept reality.

Or because reality is in the way of the myth on which their cash flow depends.

 

[DaveEV]

MOD NOTE: Thread locked due to unruly behavior.

 

[edatoakrun]

A brief history of a thread.

Western USA drought worst in modern era

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=15592&start=330" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Several commenters makes repeated off-topic BS posts.

Other join in, wasting their own time, arguing with them.

Then a moderator steps in, and after nobody respects his authoritah,

drees:
MOD NOTE: Thread locked due to unruly behavior.

Question of the day-

Who of the posters on the previous thread have made the greatest fool of themselves?

So, until this threads is merged with the one above, and unlocked:

Please post your on-topic comments here, and just ignore the BS ones.

CWB has posted an update, as Januly weather is now being followed by Febraugust...

The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge Returns; typical winter conditions still nowhere to be found in California

Filed in Uncategorized by Daniel Swain on February 16, 2015 • 30 Comments

Summary of recent conditions

Well, it has certainly been warm out there. Record warmth, in fact, has occurred on most days so far this calendar year somewhere in the state of California.

A veritable February heatwave occurred over the recent holiday weekend, bringing record highs from the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. And the calendar year to date, in some spots (including San Francisco), is currently the warmest on record. 2015 thus far is certainly among the warmest calendar years to date on a statewide basis, and will likely surpass (by the end of February) the previous record…set just last year (in 2014). This extraordinary warmth has been especially pronounced over the past 10 days as clear skies and shirtsleeve weather allowed many Californians to get outdoors and enjoy the strangely balmy February conditions. But those spending time outdoors over the past weekend have likely noticed signs that the present situation is far from typical for mid-winter in California. Vegetation–native and otherwise–has already begun to show signs of growth and flowering that typically aren’t experienced until well into the spring. Despite the green hillsides, streamflow in most of California’s creeks, streams, and rivers remains well below average for this time of year. Sierra Nevada snowpack–already at near-record low levels before the mid-February heatwave which brought temperatures above 60 degrees to the Tahoe Basin–has declined even further in recent days.

Early in the month, a very brief sequence of strong and moist storm systems brought widespread significant precipitation to the northern 2/3 of the state, with a focus on northern coastal areas. This intense rainfall did result in rapid rises on certain rivers in NorCal, and resulted in temporarily strong inflows into many of NorCal’s major reservoirs. Remarkably, however, this storm sequence ultimately resulted in little or no lasting snow accumulation below 8000 feet in the Sierra Nevada. Extremely warm temperatures dominated the event–not surprising, given the subtropical origin of the moisture. Interestingly, this event was quite similar to the brief but intense warm and wet storm sequence experienced in NorCal back in December 2014...

http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/2947#disqus_thread" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Watch the meager snowpack melt, courtesy of the former Shasta Skipark:

http://skipark.com/the-mountain/cams/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[NeilBlanchard]

We know from the GRACE satellites that California is pumping a lot of water out of the ground, and the Colorado River basin is severely depleted.

http://www.latimes.com/science/scie...ght-groundwater-satellite-20141002-story.html

http://grace.jpl.nasa.gov/news/

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/july...s-parched-us-west-using-up-underground-water/

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/science/31water.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

 

[Weatherman]

We know from the GRACE satellites that California is pumping a lot of water out of the ground, and the Colorado River basin is severely depleted.

Overuse/misuse of groundwater has been a problem in California for as far back as I remember. Even back it the 1970s it was recognized, by some at least, that California farmers were living on borrowed time.

 

[WetEV]

Some snow water equivalent as of Feb 17 in percentages of normal for Washington State, listing the closest areas to Seattle:

North Puget Sound 52%
Central Puget Sound 11%
South Puget Sound 21%
Olympic 3%

Lower Snake and Upper Columbia (far side of state) is doing somewhat better, at just under 80%.

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/snowup-graph.pl?state=WA" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[smkettner]

I look forward to the day solar powers enough desalination for the CA cities and farmers can fend for themselves.

 

[NeilBlanchard]

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...dy-warns-unprecedented-north-american-drought

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I look forward to the day solar powers enough desalination for the CA cities and farmers can fend for themselves.

If farmers are screwed what will the people in the cities eat?

 

[Weatherman]

If farmers are smart, they'll move.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/states-dangle-water-tempt-california-dairy-farmers-n303806" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;