Western USA drought worst in modern era

[AndyH]

Be safe in the floods, CA friends. Capture as much water as you can. Otherwise, you'll be following the TX towns that are reprocessing sewage outflow and putting it back into the drinking water system.

There are already many plans to do that and frankly, it's a lot better of an idea than desalination.

Welllllll... Depends on how the water's treated. There's nothing in our sewage treatment system to remove most of the chemicals and drugs that are in our waste water stream. Some of the components in waste water cannot be removed by RO, either.

I'm personally sticking with rainwater...

 

[mbender]

Be safe in the floods, CA friends. Capture as much water as you can. Otherwise, you'll be following the TX towns that are reprocessing sewage outflow and putting it back into the drinking water system.

There are already many plans to do that and frankly, it's a lot better of an idea than desalination.

With agriculture using 80% of this state's water, we can reprocess all the urban water we want but it won't make that much of a difference unless farmers figure out how to use a lot less as well. Charging them more for it would be a good prod, but I suspect their lobbying power would make that a non-starter (and they'd scare the public by saying they would have to pass the cost along via higher grocery and restaurant bills).

I think in the long run (10-20 years), desalination will have to be developed, perfected and used. As long as it's done with clean energy, the other issues with it are relatively easy to deal with (and can surely be minimized, imho).


ps. It's been pouring here in the delta the past few days... what a lovely sound!

 

[AndyH]

Enjoy the rain, Mike.


On desalination...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hq3hAM2r288[/youtube]


...note the mind-set is "either" desal or reuse. Why not both? AND efficiency. And rain. That's a real "all of the above" strategy...

 

[mbender]

Awesome! Thanks Andy -- it touched on all the important issues. If you're not familiar with Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner, it's a great read (and PBS series, apparently on YouTube, in segments), even for out-of-staters .

And you're right, 'both-and' is almost always better than 'either-or'. Either-or questions are almost always deceptive, false-choice questions. And in this spirit, I must edit my assertion above: Cadillac Desert is a great read whether or not you are familiar with it! ;-)

 

[GRA]

Awesome! Thanks Andy -- it touched on all the important issues. If you're not familiar with Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner, it's a great read (and PBS series, apparently on YouTube, in segments), even for out-of-staters .

And you're right, 'both-and' is almost always better than 'either-or'. Either-or questions are almost always deceptive, false-choice questions. And in this spirit, I must edit my assertion above: Cadillac Desert is a great read whether or not you are familiar with it! ;-)

Once you've read "Cadillac Desert", find a copy of John McPhee's 1971 book "Encounters with the Archdruid", http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encounters_with_the_Archdruid" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
in particular the section describing David Brower's (the 'Archdruid' of the title) raft trip on the Colorado with Bureau of Reclamation head Floyd Dominy, who features prominently in "Cadillac Desert".

 

[AndyH]

Be safe out there, guys... Seems Wet's letting a bit much of the 'Great North Wet' slide south... :shock:

Thanks for the reminder about Cadillac... - I'd forgotten that I wanted to track that down.

I realize that I sometimes enjoy thinking outside the box...and sometimes agree with the folks that think I'm waaaaaay out in the field among the ...er...fertilizer pellets... :lol: But I'm still amazed at how far down our 'systems assumptions' we are - and how trapped we seem to be. Even here, and even in this 5+ year drought, we've had enough rain to supply domestic water if one had a large enough tank. It's easier in an Earthship-type system where grey water is used to flush toilets, but there's still enough rain falling from the sky in most places for 'normal' houses as well. But we complain about the storms and flash floods and feel better once all that fresh water has run into the ocean...until we realize the wells are almost dry. It doesn't make any sense.

In other news...It appears Japan has 'called' the El Nino... Wet - thoughts?

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...-five-years-declared-by-japans-weather-bureau

 

[WetEV]

Be safe out there, guys... Seems Wet's letting a bit much of the 'Great North Wet' slide south... :shock:

Yep.

In other news...It appears Japan has 'called' the El Nino... Wet - thoughts?

Not many thoughts. El Nino is big, complex, and fuzzy, so will always be a range of opinions. As I've said before, I tend to follow NOAA and ABM, and they still haven't called it. The Pacific sea surface temperatures, wind and pressure patterns right now, to me at least, just look strange.

 

[dhanson865]

I live on the edge of a rainforest so water isn't an issue here for availability but it is for cost. They raise our rates constantly.

I have 3 toilets in the house. One is a 1.28 GPF and the other two are from the 90s and are probably more like 3 GPF (I've adjusted them down and put some glass jars in the tank to maybe get them under 3 to 2.x but they are clearly on the high side of what I want).

Do those of you in the southwest consider 1.28 GPF low flow? Would you consider it environmentally friendly for me to trash a perfectly working 2.x GPF to replace it with a 1.x GPF?

I've also replaced 2.5 GPM shower heads with 2.0, 1.8x, and 1.6x GPM heads. Definitely nicer shower experience even with the 1.6x GPM. Those were a no brainer because the decade old shower heads were cracking and leaking. Had to replace those no matter what so going lower flow was a no brainer.

Another big water saver was when I got rid of the top loading washer and went with a front loading steam capable clothes washer.

To give you an idea on cost my low bill from 2009 (partial month) and a normal bill from 2009 are

15 hundred gallons $27.80 (partial month, average bills back then were mid to high 30s in hundreds of gallons)
39 hundred gallons $38.08 (notice how over twice the water usage is barely higher in cost).

compared to my most recent bills (all bills are for water and sewer service including tax, family of 2 with dishwasher and clotheswasher)

19 hundred gallons $52.39 (again a 25% higher usage is only 7% higher cost)
15 hundred gallons $49.05

I'm using way less water now than I was 5 years ago but I'm paying a higher bill for the lower usage. And I could probably cut my water usage further by replacing toilets but it won't save me much money even if it saves water. The payback on the lower water usage would be beyond my lifetime if I only save $1 a month by buying a $200 toilet. I guess I'm better off just walking the extra distance to the one low water flow toilet in the house and using the other two toilets as emergency backups or convenience usage in the middle of the night or when guests are here.

Is the cost for water/sewage service higher out west?

It just seems a shame to me that my choice has to be between losing money to save water or saving money by wasting water.

 

[dgpcolorado]

...Is the cost for water/sewage service higher out west?...

Depends on where one is, of course. I believe that I have the most expensive water in my state, from a tiny for-profit water company. The monthly service charge is $73.51 and the use charge is $8.56 per 1000 gallons. Unlike in many places, that doesn't include a sewer charge — since houses here are on septic and leach field — it's just water. My typical usage is 500 gallons/month in winter to about 800 gallons/month in summer so a typical water bill runs around $78/month. My neighbors all use more and pay more but I wish use rates were tiered so the huge users would pay higher rates.

 

[edatoakrun]

At about the half-way point of the Rain season (and with El Niño a no-show) an update from the CWB, with an apt descriptive term.

Click the photo of snowless Tioga pass road at the link.

Everything in context: heavy December rains, record-warm temperatures, and extremely low snowpack

December’s rains–especially near the Bay Area and along parts of the Central Coast–were very impressive, and in many instances brought more liquid water than fell during the entire calendar year of 2013. The fact that substantial precipitation fell in December means that calendar year 2014 and water year 2014-2015 are not going to set any all-time records for low precipitation. But now that California’s extreme drought is entering its fourth year, the state needs far more than merely “above record low” precipitation to alleviate the long-term effects of ongoing extreme warmth and low precipitation on a multi-year basis.

One particularly notable aspect of the recent conditions in California is the ongoing “snow drought” in the Sierra Nevada. December’s very heavy coastal rainfall did not translate to nearly as much mountain snowfall as might have been expected in a typical year, and mid-January snow water equivalent is tracking at near record-low levels once again–and is in fact on a very similar trajectory to both 1976-1977 and 2013-2014. The extremely minimal Sierra snowpack this year is the combined result of both regionally below-average precipitation to date across eastern California and well-above average (record-breaking) temperatures...

http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/2853" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Statewide snowpack at ~36% of average for this date, and (after todays showers are over) no precipitation in the forecast for ~10 days out.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Mt. Shasta closed last week, and with temps approaching 60 F projected by next weekend (and ~80F Januly temps expected in the Valley) this will probably be a mudcam view very soon.

http://skipark.com/the-mountain/cams/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Reservoirs still look a lot better than they did last fall, but they will fall sooner and faster than normal, if we don't get the snowpack in the next ~two months to provide spring inflows:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/rescond.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[NeilBlanchard]

Thanks for the update. The other big factor is whether or not we get an El Niño this year, or not.

 

[edatoakrun]

Thanks for the update. The other big factor is whether or not we get an El Niño this year, or not.

From the CWB update I posted yesterday:

...Update: El Niño simply isn’t there

Meanwhile, in the tropical Eastern Pacific, sea surface temperature anomalies have continued to fade in recent days. In fact, there now appears to be little anomalous warmth at all in the eastern part of the tropical Pacific (and some anomalous warmth has returned to the West Pacific Warm Pool). This means that the canonical El Niño teleconnections for the West Coast of North America almost certainly won’t be relevant for the rest of winter...

http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/2853" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Today's LAT has a story illustrating California's dependence on atmospheric river events:

...California usually needs about five good atmospheric rivers each winter to fill reservoirs, stimulate spring vegetation growth and build snowpack to healthy levels, said Michael Anderson, a climatologist for the California Department of Water Resources. But how much the storms boost the state's water supply depends on the characteristics of each one, including how cold it is, whether it makes landfall toward the north or south, and whether the precipitation falls mostly as rain near the coast or as snow in the mountains...

http://www.latimes.com/science/la-me-atmospheric-rivers-20150119-story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

But with the rising ocean and land temperatures (and rising snow levels) that have already occurred, and the more rapid increase expected in the future, the risk of one of these atmospheric river events overwhelming flood control structures, with massive economic costs, increases.

...This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years.

Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion...

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[AndyH]

Welcome to the new Eaarth, guys.

I'm sitting here with windows open in the house...welcome to another year without winter.

 

[smkettner]

Is the cost for water/sewage service higher out west?

I have tiered rates from 88 cents to $12.60 per CCF. Last water bill was $36 with 5 CCF usage at the lowest rate.
So the variable cost of water was $4.40 for the month with the rest as fixed meter fees $10.85 and sewer fees $21.18.
Not much to save here.

 

[RegGuheert]

Welcome to the new Eaarth, guys.

There is nothing new about a drought in California. If this drought lasts for another 200 years, it will still be within the range of normal for that area:

Of course that doesn't make it any easier for those experiencing the drought conditions there.

I'm sitting here with windows open in the house...welcome to another year without winter.

:?: :?: Another year without a winter? Just so everyone here knows where you are coming from, I will point out that Texas is currently experiencing one of the coldest, if not the coldest, Januaries on record:

It's not just a little colder, but as much as 10 degrees colder in Texas. And, for the record, last winter the average temperature in Texas was 1.4F below normal.

But while Andy experiences one of the coldest winters in recorded history, the winter in CA and NV remains very warm. I pray you all receive some relief soon.

 

[Weatherman]

The drought in California could, easily, last for a couple more years. This would not be the least bit unusual and would not be any indication of a significant change in California climate.

To put things into perspective, Lake Tahoe dropped below its natural rim last fall (also not an unusual event). The last extended period where the lake was below its natural rim was in the early 1990s. From the following reference, it can be seen that the lake fell below its natural rim in 1990, and stayed that way, with only a short break in 1993, all the way until 1995.

http://www.trpa.org/lake-tahoe-dips-below-natural-rim/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

California could stay dry for the next couple of years and it would only just match the drought of 20-25 years ago.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Problem solved

http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_25859513/nations-largest-ocean-desalination-plant-goes-up-near" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[AndyH]

Welcome to the new Eaarth, guys.

There is nothing new about a drought in California. If this drought lasts for another 200 years, it will still be within the range of normal for that area:

Of course that doesn't make it any easier for those experiencing the drought conditions there.

I'm sitting here with windows open in the house...welcome to another year without winter.

:?: :?: Another year without a winter? Just so everyone here knows where you are coming from, I will point out that Texas is currently experiencing one of the coldest, if not the coldest, Januaries on record:

Yup, clearly you must be right, Reg. I figure a climate change denier in Virginia should have the best info on what's happening in the country. :lol:

A normal winter here includes about two months of running the furnace. I've used the furnace exactly twice - the first time during the polar vortex cold a month or two back. As I sit here, it's 71 outside (shade, north side of the house) and it's 82 here in the living room. I've got windows open all over the house.

My in-laws are about 100 miles north, two USDA climate zones away, and they've had an amazingly mild winter as well.

Numbers aren't yet available for January, 2015 from the state climatologist. December, however, was 2.8°F above average. (Yes - these data are for the zone in which I live.)
http://climatexas.tamu.edu/cs-monthly-summaries/december-2014

Again - normally Jan and Feb are the big heating months and I haven't used my furnace a single day this month. I have windows open all day, and sleep with windows open at night. There is nothing normal (or colder than normal) about this.

 

[RegGuheert]

Yup, clearly you must be right, Reg.

The data I provided is correct, as you can clearly see from the links provided. You see, we don't have to take your word for it when you claim to be experiencing "another year without winter". We can simply look at the data and see that is far from being a true statement.

 

[mwalsh]

A normal winter here includes about two months of running the furnace.

For the last few years I've been going on the increasingly infrequent number of days we have ice/frost here in sunny SoCal. We don't get massive amounts usually, but the past several winters I've been noticing no more than a couple of days of each. This year we've had ice once and a light frost once.

I rarely need full-on pajamas anymore, never mind an electric blanket. Just a t-shirt and shorts can have me waking up in a sweat. Actually, what I've started counting instead is the number of times I wake up to find that I've kicked all the blankets off the bed! What's next...sleeping naked on top of the sheets, in December?