Update on Nissan LEAF Battery Replacement

[wwhitney]

Anyone who changes their lifestyle in any way solely to avoid polluting is not acting rationally.

Rational != self-interested. If your goals include the well-being of others, then avoiding pollution is perfectly rational.

Cheers, Wayne

 

[dhanson865]

So far, there hasn't been any indication that the S will NEED a replacement battery for quite a long time... That is one big difference in the overall equation...

As this points to someone speculating if Tesla will reduce their replacement battery price (earlier quoted as $40K on the LEAF thread) let the outside speculation begin ... of course an apples and oranges comparison as far as range, etc. -- $15,600 is a lot less than $40K

It's also notable that Tesla sold pack upgrades before Nissan did.

One user that had a 60KW battery with minor degradation upgraded his battery pack to a 85KW just for the extended range in 2013 well before Nissan announced their replacement price.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1089183_life-with-tesla-model-s-battery-upgrade-from-60-kwh-to-85-kwh" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In his case the cost was not just a pack replacement but also an upgrade in capacity but it shows that Tesla had the back end systems in place for the accounting/sale process and the physical swap of a battery. If he were degraded he could have gone through the same process to get a same capacity battery that wasn't degraded.

Nissan went for a low price with a very low core return value (fixed at $1000), Tesla has a larger price but also a much larger core return value (in his case it was 80% of the original cost, but I expect they will make it variable in the future).

It will be interesting to compare pack replacement costs when there is a 5 year old Model S to compare to a 5 year old Leaf.

 

[johnrhansen]

Anyone who changes their lifestyle in any way solely to avoid polluting is not acting rationally.

Rational != self-interested. If your goals include the well-being of others, then avoiding pollution is perfectly rational.

Cheers, Wayne

+1 here

Personally, I don't recycle and generally be environmentally responsible to impress anyone, or to expect reward. I do it because my conscience will not allow me to act otherwise. That said I don't think I have any room to judge people who don't. All I can control is what I do.

 

[Valdemar]

Sorry for now being more clear but he got the point. Instead of burning gas, I am now burning batteries. Lets say I bought a VW diesel, have I saved money compared to that diesel? Previous poster said in year 4, I get a free battery. But from what Nissan told me, it will be any battery as long as it has more than 9 bars. So I would drop down to 8 bars, get a new battery pack and it is at 9 bars?

I get your point but TDI is a bad example because it is somewhat expensive to start with and maintain, and also diesel fuel tends to be around the same cost per gallon as premium gas. YMMV, speaking for myself, I'm putting about 20k miles on my Leaf annually, and after year 4 at 80k miles my TCO will be about 2k less than that of the TDI *after* I put a new battery in for $7,000.

 

[mwalsh]

That said I don't think I have any room to judge people who don't. All I can control is what I do.

Sure you can. Although you can't control what other people do, you can call them out for being ignorant tossers!

 

[evnow]

Agreed, and we must understand that as early adopter types we assume risks others wouldn't even consider for a New York minute. As such we share the risk with Nissan with for unexpected costs or bumps in the EV road along the way. Unfortunately we hit a bump in the road.

Let us be clear. There was an easy way in which we could make Nissan take the complete risk - by leasing. But no - many wanted to roll the dice to save a few bucks - now are unhappy it didn't turn out well.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Mr Brockman, since this thread still seems to have your ear can you help clear up the following:
If one opted out of the class action settlement does that only void their capacity warranty on their current LEAF or is that person not eligible for battery capacity warranties on LEAFs they lease or buy in the future as well? Is there an option to opt back in or am I barred for life?

Sorry. I'm not in the best position to answer that, as it's a legal matter and I'm no lawyer. However, I'll consult with our folks to try to get a clear answer or statement on that topic. It might be best for me to post back in the thread about the topic rather than here.

Thank you for your response. I reposted this for context in this thread:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=17045&start=210" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[mwalsh]

Let us be clear. There was an easy way in which we could make Nissan take the complete risk - by leasing. But no - many wanted to roll the dice to save a few bucks - now are unhappy it didn't turn out well.

I don't think many bought "to save a few bucks". More than a few bought because we didn't trust leasing EVs (thanks to GM). Others have always bought, because we typically keep our cars for a few years beyond what a lease would allow. I happen to fit in both categories.

But then I always figured I'd only get 5 usable years out of a battery pack, based on what we'd been told. Not really on me that I only got 3 useable years out of it!

 

[evnow]

I don't think many bought "to save a few bucks". More than a few bought because we didn't trust leasing EVs (thanks to GM). Others have always bought, because we typically keep our cars for a few years. I happen to fit in both categories.

But then I always figured I'd only get 5 usable years out of a battery pack, based on what we'd been told. Not really on me that I only got 3 useable years out of it!

True - as I wrote a couple of pages back - a lot of people made buying decision based on emotions.

You figured it will last 5 years - but it lasted only 3. Isn't the warranty Nissan is giving covering that case ? Or did you think it will not go down to < 70% in 5 years ?

 

[mwalsh]

You figured it will last 5 years - but it lasted only 3. Isn't the warranty Nissan is giving covering that case ? Or did you think it will not go down to < 70% in 5 years ?

I figured that in January of 2016 I'd be where I was in January of this year - at about 210-215 Gids, which is about the lowest number I could live with for my commute and still be comfortable about it - and at that point I'd reach a decision on purchasing a replacement pack (assuming a price had been announced that I could handle) or asking my work about mid-point charging. Being as mid-point charging was really something I didn't want to do, I'd have very likely gone with the replacement pack at the price offered.

A capacity warranty was never really a part of my "big picture". That is, until it was announced.

 

[pkulak]

So far, there hasn't been any indication that the S will NEED a replacement battery for quite a long time... That is one big difference in the overall equation...

As this points to someone speculating if Tesla will reduce their replacement battery price (earlier quoted as $40K on the LEAF thread) let the outside speculation begin ... of course an apples and oranges comparison as far as range, etc. -- $15,600 is a lot less than $40K

You'd probably have to drive it for 100 years before it could only do 60 miles.

 

[pkulak]

Anyone who changes their lifestyle in any way solely to avoid polluting is not acting rationally.

Rational != self-interested. If your goals include the well-being of others, then avoiding pollution is perfectly rational.

Cheers, Wayne

+1 here

Personally, I don't recycle and generally be environmentally responsible to impress anyone, or to expect reward. I do it because my conscience will not allow me to act otherwise. That said I don't think I have any room to judge people who don't. All I can control is what I do.

My point is just that you can't expect a society to accomplish anything by counting on people to act ethically just for the sake of itself. Just about anything you do that harms others carries a penalty. Polluting doesn't and that needs to change.

 

[JPWhite]

Agreed, and we must understand that as early adopter types we assume risks others wouldn't even consider for a New York minute. As such we share the risk with Nissan with for unexpected costs or bumps in the EV road along the way. Unfortunately we hit a bump in the road.

Let us be clear. There was an easy way in which we could make Nissan take the complete risk - by leasing. But no - many wanted to roll the dice to save a few bucks - now are unhappy it didn't turn out well.

I for one am still happy I purchased, especially now I can keep driving the car till the wheels fall off.

Since I purchased, my commute has increased from 28 miles round trip to 76 miles round trip. Had I leased I would have been fleeced at lease termination had I estimated 12,000 miles/yr, or been forced to buy at a high residual.

So no I'm not saving a 'few bucks', I'm saving a bundle. 2 yrs of driving my current commute buys a new battery.

 

[timhebb]

Anyone who changes their lifestyle in any way solely to avoid polluting is not acting rationally. Sadly, most of the cost of driving a car is not born by the driver. Until there's some kind of carbon tax (hint: never) you can't expect people to act against their own interests. Capitalism works, even if the incentives are toward destroying the planet.

I just drove to Seattle and back this weekend in a Honda Civic. It cost me about 40 bucks in gas. God knows how many hundreds (thousands?) of dollars worth of damage I did to 1-5 and the air. And knowing that, I still didn't take the train or buy a Tesla.

It's important, I think, not to ignore the symbolic impact of these decisions, beyond their physical-world consequences. Stanford University's decision to divest itself of oil company investments has little impact on our environment directly, but enormous influence symbolically and as an inflection point. It will probably influence other leading institutions to do the same, and help create a ripple effect of similar actions which collectively can effect changes that far exceed those of the original gesture.

We do not live in a vacuum; do not underestimate the power of peer pressure and psychological warfare. It IS worthwhile, meaningful and influential to change one's lifestyle solely to avoid polluting. The whole world is watching, and waiting, for someone - anyone - to go first. A show of hands from LEAF drivers who have persuaded others in their sphere of influence to consider driving an EV would illustrate the point nicely, I'm sure.

Frankly, I don't even understand most of the rest of what you're trying to say in your post, other than to justify the nihilism of the opening assertion, which I utterly reject. By the way, I also disagree that carbon taxes will "never" be implemented. I think we're well on the way toward adopting them; when Hank Paulson writes a NY Times OP-ed piece advocating them, we are approaching another inflection point (http://nyti.ms/1kYWXz2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false.

 

[evnow]

I figured that in January of 2016 I'd be where I was in January of this year - at about 210-215 Gids, which is about the lowest number I could live with for my commute and still be comfortable about it - and at that point I'd reach a decision on purchasing a replacement pack (assuming a price had been announced that I could handle) or asking my work about mid-point charging. Being as mid-point charging was really something I didn't want to do, I'd have very likely gone with the replacement pack at the price offered.

A capacity warranty was never really a part of my "big picture". That is, until it was announced.

But you didn't know about gids, before got the Leaf.

In anycase, you assumed a certain minimum range for certain number of years and it turns out not to be the case. Isn't that the basic risk you take when you buy vs if you lease ?

BTW, I've to say the people who have been affected most with leaf's range are actually people in colder areas. Even in the first year, we might have been looking at 50% of the "100 city miles" range.

 

[TomT]

It only cost me $6 a month to go from 12K to 15K a year on my lease. I expect to be at almost exactly 60K when I turn it in at the end of four years...

Since I purchased, my commute has increased from 28 miles round trip to 76 miles round trip. Had I leased I would have been fleeced at lease termination had I estimated 12,000 miles/yr, or been forced to buy at a high residual.

 

[evnow]

Since I purchased, my commute has increased from 28 miles round trip to 76 miles round trip. Had I leased I would have been fleeced at lease termination had I estimated 12,000 miles/yr, or been forced to buy at a high residual.

So no I'm not saving a 'few bucks', I'm saving a bundle. 2 yrs of driving my current commute buys a new battery.

When we buy an EV that is definitely one of the risks we take. We may not be able to make it to the new work place (I guess in your case you can charge at work).

When you lease - you are not taking some risks, but as you note you are taking some others. Same if you buy.

I'm just noting that - and questioning the reasoning of some that Nissan needs to cover whenever the risks we take do not pay off.

 

[mwalsh]

I'm just noting that - and questioning the reasoning of some that Nissan needs to cover whenever the risks we take do not pay off.

I think when the risks are calculated based on comments from those at Nissan who are supposed to have better than an educated guess then, yes, I think Nissan needs to cover them.

 

[pkulak]

Frankly, I don't even understand most of the rest of what you're trying to say in your post, other than to justify the nihilism of the opening assertion, which I utterly reject.

Legislate it, or it won't happen. That's my point. I'm not a nihilist, I'm a realist.

http://i.imgur.com/kxYc3vw.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[evnow]

I think when the risks are calculated based on comments from those at Nissan who are supposed to have better than an educated guess then, yes, I think Nissan needs to cover them.

There are so many statements - isn't it a question of what one decided to focus on ?

I'm not saying what happened with Pheonix EVs is acceptable - and that is where the capacity warranty that Nissan added post-sales comes in. I've seen people saying if the battery didn't keep 70% capacity for 8 years - Nissan needs to pay. I think this is where people are asking Nissan to accept all the risk.

BTW, we are drifting slowly off topic. May be we should split the recent posts out of this thread.