TSLA stock price discussion thread

[TonyWilliams]

starting to look a little toppy

Tesla Motors Inc
NASDAQ: TSLA - May 14 12:24pm ET

88.24 +0.44
Open: 94.22
High: 97.12
Low: 86.00




Volume: 20,102,056
Avg Vol: 5,796,000
Mkt Cap: 10.21B <<<--- RUN, FOREST, RUN !!!

 

[GeekEV]

It looks like the stock is starting its downward trend. I cashed out all but my initial investment this morning @ $86 (bought @ $30). I'll rebuy when it comes back down. I wish I'd gotten up early and done it first thing in the morning when it was $96, but I'm not a morning person. Damn East coast markets...

 

[evnow]

On the Tesla forum they talk about Tuesdays being the down days.

 

[apvbguy]

On the Tesla forum they talk about Tuesdays being the down days.

tuesday has always been know as a "reversal day" by traders.

doing a quick analysis of the days chart, today's action definitely looks as if it is a reversal of trend. it would need a move back over 88 to negate today's negative price action

 

[mitch672]

On the Tesla forum they talk about Tuesdays being the down days.

There is heavy manipulation of options going on by either a massive hedge fund, or a MM themselves.
It shows up as contracts basically disappearing, or handled off the books. It seems to occur on a Tuesday, and it always drags the stock down. There are some that have speculated its shorters looking to save 3 days of interest... Here is the thread, if you want to read all the gory details:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/15417-The-Rolling-Naked-Tesla-Short

 

[redLEAF]

Today's range between $86.87 and $78.11, up $1.50 now at $84.53; not doing as well as some here but made $30/share in a little under 2 weeks (pure speculation, always have a slush fund you can afford to lose). Bought it on the brink of the latest positive sales numbers and before the CR rating, etc. ... have to determine a top end but this one is actually fun to watch

 

[mitch672]

Today's range between $86.87 and $78.11, up $1.50 now at $84.53; not doing as well as some here but made $30/share in a little under 2 weeks (pure speculation, always have a slush fund you can afford to lose). Bought it on the brink of the latest positive sales numbers and before the CR rating, etc. ... have to determine a top end but this one is actually fun to watch

You should upgrade, a "2013 Smart ED", they have pills to fix those issues now
You will be able to afford a Model S with all of the cash you are raking in

 

[redLEAF]

Today's range between $86.87 and $78.11, up $1.50 now at $84.53; not doing as well as some here but made $30/share in a little under 2 weeks (pure speculation, always have a slush fund you can afford to lose). Bought it on the brink of the latest positive sales numbers and before the CR rating, etc. ... have to determine a top end but this one is actually fun to watch

You should upgrade, a "2013 Smart ED", they have pills to fix those issues now
You will be able to afford a Model S with all of the cash you are raking in

late breaking news ... smart's marketing dept. now wants you to call it Ed ... should have thought of this when the first gen came out; as to the Tesla S, my car stable is 'full' for now (other than a possible ICE to EV swap with a car the same size as the smart) but these are quite tempting, seem to be growing in popularity around Chicago. Cashing in some gains was the trigger on buying another car last December but of course people would argue that buying a depreciating asset is never a good way to spend money --- that particular car was for long trips and needed to carry 5 + luggage with room to spare so a pure EV was unfortunately out.

 

[gaswalla]

Tesla Motors Announces Offerings of Common Stock and Convertible Senior Notes
Elon Musk to Lead Common Stock Offering; Tesla Intends to Pay Off Department of Energy Loan With Interest

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/tesla-motors-announces-offerings-of-common-stock-and-convertible-senior-notes-nasdaq-tsla-1791516.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[mitch672]

Today's range between $86.87 and $78.11, up $1.50 now at $84.53; not doing as well as some here but made $30/share in a little under 2 weeks (pure speculation, always have a slush fund you can afford to lose). Bought it on the brink of the latest positive sales numbers and before the CR rating, etc. ... have to determine a top end but this one is actually fun to watch

You should upgrade, a "2013 Smart ED", they have pills to fix those issues now
You will be able to afford a Model S with all of the cash you are raking in

late breaking news ... smart's marketing dept. now wants you to call it Ed ... should have thought of this when the first gen came out; as to the Tesla S, my car stable is 'full' for now (other than a possible ICE to EV swap with a car the same size as the smart) but these are quite tempting, seem to be growing in popularity around Chicago. Cashing in some gains was the trigger on buying another car last December but of course people would argue that buying a depreciating asset is never a good way to spend money --- that particular car was for long trips and needed to carry 5 + luggage with room to spare so a pure EV was unfortunately out.

I think I can put this car in my "Frunk" lol, it his very cute though, have to give it props for that, my only question is, where is the rest of it?

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Looks like another pop at the open today, just when the shorts thought it was safe to go back in the water. I wonder if any of them shorted again in hopes of making their money back.

 

[apvbguy]

Looks like another pop at the open today, just when the shorts thought it was safe to go back in the water. I wonder if any of them shorted again in hopes of making their money back.

this "pop" is just another chance for longs to get out. the up trend doesn't appear to be intact

 

[Zythryn]

This is fascinating to watch.
Normally when a company issues more common shares it dilutes the existing shares and the stock takes a dip.

The positives of paying off the DOE loan must be outweighing that big time.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

This is fascinating to watch.
Normally when a company issues more common shares it dilutes the existing shares and the stock takes a dip.

The positives of paying off the DOE loan must be outweighing that big time.

I was wondering why the rush to pay back that loan, there must be some strings attached that, like some required DNC contributions.

I would have thought it more bullish to announce the money was needed to increase production, but that's why successful companies have investment bankers and corporate finance guys to make such decisions.

 

[WetEV]

This is fascinating to watch.
Normally when a company issues more common shares it dilutes the existing shares and the stock takes a dip.

The positives of paying off the DOE loan must be outweighing that big time.

When a company has a shorted shares, there are more people that think that they own the stock than actually do. Why?

Suppose a company sells one share. This share is bought by person A, who thinks he owns it. His brokerage lends the share to person B, who sells it short to person C who also thinks it owns it. Now two people think they own a share of a company that issued one share. If person B wants to close out the short, person B needs to buy a share from A or C, and will need to keep bidding higher until he can buy one. This is a "short squeeze", and can make the stock price pop far beyond realistic levels.

While having your stock price skyrocket is a problem most companies might want to an extent, it can also be disruptive. It makes it harder to issue meaningful incentive stock options, among other things. Issuing additional common shares now will let Tesla pay down debt, build a cash reserve for rainy days, and collect a profit from the losses of the short sellers.

 

[Zythryn]

This is fascinating to watch.
Normally when a company issues more common shares it dilutes the existing shares and the stock takes a dip.

The positives of paying off the DOE loan must be outweighing that big time.

I was wondering why the rush to pay back that loan, there must be some strings attached that, like some required DNC contributions.

I would have thought it more bullish to announce the money was needed to increase production, but that's why successful companies have investment bankers and corporate finance guys to make such decisions.

They are raising about $800 Million and using some of that to pay back the loan.
In my mind the benefits are:

Take a big liability off the books.

Take a big stick away from the naysayers who use the DOE loan to put Tesla down (Fox, Palin, Rush, etc).

Connected with the above, some auto dealer associations have used the government loan as a way to put Tesla in a bad light with politicians when trying to pass laws making direct sales to consumers illegal, or to keep such antiquated laws on the books (I saw this myself in Minnesota although it didn't work here).

Without the quarterly installment payments Tesla may be profitable again in third quarter rather than estimated fourth quarter.

And...

In an ironic twist, to thank the shorts who have ended up contributing to the huge run up. As many of these shorts were sooooo critical of the government loan, now they can rest easy knowing the short squeeze helped Tesla pay it off

 

[Zythryn]

...

When a company has a shorted shares, there are more people that think that they own the stock than actually do. Why?
...

The only reason multiple people would think they own the same stock is they don't understand shorting a stock.

My understanding is that when someone 'shorts' a stock they borrow the stock. At this point, they don't own it, they are simply borrowing it.
At some point the person that shorted the stock sells it and uses the stock they just actually bought to 'repay' the loan of the stock.

If the price they buy it at is less that the loan value, they essentially made the difference.

However, hey pay interest on borrowing the stock. In addition, if the stock goes up they have to keep paying interest or buy at the higher rate to return the loan (loosing money plus the interest). Or, they can simply hold it longer and hope the price goes back down. However, if it doesn't and continues up instead, then it will cost even more.

Hope that helps some?

 

[apvbguy]

I was wondering why the rush to pay back that loan, there must be some strings attached that, like some required DNC contributions.

it all depends on how much it is costing Tesla to use the government money, some debt is good some is bad, depending on the terms this might be bad debt and shedding it would be good for their future.
I am surprised that team charlatan isn't touting the blooming success story that Tesla is becoming

 

[apvbguy]

...

When a company has a shorted shares, there are more people that think that they own the stock than actually do. Why?
...

The only reason multiple people would think they own the same stock is they don't understand shorting a stock.

My understanding is that when someone 'shorts' a stock they borrow the stock. At this point, they don't own it, they are simply borrowing it.
At some point the person that shorted the stock sells it and uses the stock they just actually bought to 'repay' the loan of the stock.

If the price they buy it at is less that the loan value, they essentially made the difference.

However, hey pay interest on borrowing the stock. In addition, if the stock goes up they have to keep paying interest or buy at the higher rate to return the loan (loosing money plus the interest). Or, they can simply hold it longer and hope the price goes back down. However, if it doesn't and continues up instead, then it will cost even more.

Hope that helps some?

a very good laymans analysis, you can get into far more sophisticated hedges via option strategies

 

[WetEV]

...

When a company has a shorted shares, there are more people that think that they own the stock than actually do. Why?
...

The only reason multiple people would think they own the same stock is they don't understand shorting a stock.

My understanding is that when someone 'shorts' a stock they borrow the stock.

Yes. The person that lent the stock usually doesn't know that it was lent. Do you keep physical stock certificates, or just keep your stock at your brokerage account? It is usual for brokerage agreements (not all, but most) to allow the brokerage to lend your stock to someone to short sell without telling you. Read the fine print.